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Will Galen
01-18-2010, 10:37 PM
Can we make the playoff's?

Of course it’s still possible that we can make the playoffs, but really how likely is it? Right now here’s the Eastern conference standings minus Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta, and New Jersey. A complete meltdown would have to happen for one of the first four teams not to make the playoff’s and New Jersey is chasing the worse season an NBA team has ever had.

<table cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="543"> <tbody><tr> <td class="table1column1" align="center" valign="top" width="24%">Team
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">
Won
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Lost
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Per.
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Streak
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">Last Ten
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Charlotte*
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">20
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">19
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.513
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Won 5
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">8-2
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Miami*
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">20
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">19
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.513
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Lost 1
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">4-6
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Toronto*
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">21
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">20
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.512
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Won 2
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">7-3
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Chicago*
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">18
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%"> 21
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.462
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Lost 1
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">6-4
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">New York
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">17
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">24
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.415
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Won 1
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">5-5
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Milwaukee
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">16
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">23
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.410
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Lost 2
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">3-7
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Detroit
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">14
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">26
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.350
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Lost 1
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">3-7
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Indiana
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">14
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">26
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.350
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Lost 1
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">5-5
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Washington
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">14
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">26
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.350
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Won 2
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">4-6
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="24%">Philadelphia
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">13
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">27
</td> <td class="table1column4" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">.325
</td> <td class="table1column5" align="center" valign="top" width="15%">Lost 1
</td> <td class="table1column6" align="center" valign="top" width="16%">5-5
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
* Currently in playoffs


As you can see, Chicago is currently in 8<sup>th</sup> place in the East, and the only team under .500. They would be the team easiest for us to catch because they have more losses than the other teams. We are 5 games behind them in the loss column.

We have 42 games yet to play. If we play .500, we will wind up with a record of 35-47, one win less than the last two years. It’s very possible for us to play .500 because we went 21-21 over the last 42 games last season.

Chicago has played 39 games and won 18. That means if we play .500, all Chicago has to do to stay ahead of us is to match their first half of the season.


If teams continue to win at their current rate this is how they will finish based on the nearest percentage.

<table cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="375"> <tbody><tr> <td class="table2column1" align="center" valign="top" width="35%">Team
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">
Won
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">Lost
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">Per.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Charlotte*
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">42
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">40
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.513
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Miami*
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">42
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">40
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.513
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Toronto*
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">42
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">40
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.512
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Chicago*
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">38
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%"> 44
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.462
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">New York
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">34
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">48
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.415
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Milwaukee
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">33
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">49
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.402
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Detroit
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">29
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">53
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.353
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Indiana
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">29
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">53
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.353
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Washington
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">29
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">53
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.353
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table2column1" valign="top" width="35%">Philadelphia
</td> <td class="table2column2" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">27
</td> <td class="table2column3" align="center" valign="top" width="22%">55
</td> <td class="table2column4" align="center" valign="top" width="21%">.325
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

For us to beat out Chicago in this scenario we would have to go 25-17 the rest of the way, a .595 percentage.


We have played exactly .500 over our last ten games, however even in doing so we have lost ground to Chicago since they have gone 6-4, for.600 ball.

Since Rose is now healthy, and Chicago is only 3 games under .500, they could actually play .500 ball for the season. Catching them then would be even more unlikely. And remember the teams ahead of them are already playing .500.

For us to finish the season at .500, we would have to go 27-15, that’s .642 ball.

Is it possible we could play .642 ball? Sure, but it’s possible (haha) we could go undefeated the rest of the way too. Possible doesn’t mean probable, or even likely. In this case I would say us making the playoffs is highly unlikely unless one of the teams currently holding down a playoff spot has a major injury. And that scenario is just as likely for us.

Hicks
01-18-2010, 11:11 PM
I think we'll end up in the mid to low 30's in wins barring a major turnaround. I do think we'll see considerably better basketball from here on out barring injuries, but I don't think it's enough to go 25-17. Without looking at our schedule, I could maybe see us doing well enough to go 22-20.

Sookie
01-18-2010, 11:36 PM
Thing with this team is, there doesn't seem to be definite wins, or definite losses.

4 games with 40+ games to go, is not a huge probability of not making the playoffs.

I think giving this group 5 more games together will give us a better idea. They really haven't had that much time to gell. But if they want to go to the playoffs, they need to focus on beating the teams "they need to beat" ..aka..the bad ones..and taking care of home court.

Lance George
01-18-2010, 11:50 PM
We have to go two games above .500 in order to match our 36 wins from each of the past season. Over the last five seasons, The Eastern Conference 8th seed has won an average of 39.8 games. We'd have to go 26-16 (.619; 50 wins over an 82 game period) from here on out just to win 40 games, which is a level of winning we haven't seen here since before that delightful November night back in 2004.

I can't see it happening.

vnzla81
01-19-2010, 12:11 AM
here is the rest of the schedule. My predictions are like this:



Upcoming Games
January Opponent Time
Tue 19 @ Miami 7:30pm ...............L
Wed 20 @ Orlando 7:00pm ...........L
Fri 22 @ Detroit 8:00pm ..............w
Sat 23 vs Philadelphia 7:00pm.........w
Mon 25 @ Philadelphia 7:00pm.......L
Wed 27 vs LA Lakers 7:00pm .........L
Fri 29 vs Cleveland 7:00pm ...........L
Sun 31 @ Toronto 6:00pm ..........w
February Opponent Time Local
Tue 02 vs Toronto 7:00pm ...........w
Fri 05 vs Detroit 7:00pm ..............L
Sat 06 @ Milwaukee 8:30pm .........w
Tue 09 vs Chicago 7:00pm ...........L
Wed 17 vs San Antonio 7:00pm ......L
Fri 19 @ New Orleans 8:00pm ......L
Sat 20 @ Houston 8:30pm ...........w
Mon 22 @ Dallas 8:30pm ............L
Wed 24 @ Chicago 8:00pm..........L
Thu 25 vs Milwaukee 7:00pm ........L
Sat 27 vs Chicago 7:00pm ..........w
March Opponent Time Local
Tue 02 @ LA Lakers 10:30pm........w
Wed 03 @ Portland 10:00pm ........L
Fri 05 @ Denver 9:00pm .............L
Sat 06 @ Phoenix 9:00pm ...........L
Tue 09 vs Philadelphia 7:00pm ......L
Fri 12 @ Boston 7:30pm .............L
Sun 14 @ Milwaukee 1:00pm .......w
Tue 16 vs Charlotte 7:00pm ........L
Wed 17 @ Cleveland 7:00pm .......L
Fri 19 vs Detroit 7:00pm ..............w
Sun 21 vs Oklahoma City 2:30pm ...L
Tue 23 @ Detroit 7:30pm ............L
Wed 24 vs Washington 7:00pm......w
Fri 26 vs Utah 7:00pm ................L
Sun 28 @ Atlanta 3:30pm............L
Tue 30 vs Sacramento 7:00pm.......w
April Opponent Time Local
Fri 02 vs Miami 7:00pm ...............L
Sun 04 vs Houston 6:00pm ..........L
Wed 07 vs New York 7:00pm.........L
Fri 09 @ Cleveland 7:30pm...........w
Sat 10 vs New Jersey 7:00pm .......w
Mon 12 vs Orlando 7:00pm ...........w
Wed 14 @ Washington 8:00pm.......w


total loses 26 total wins 16, not I don't think they make the playoffs, unless they make a big trade and bring a really good player in return.

PaceBalls
01-19-2010, 12:30 AM
Yikes! Feb 17- March 17 is brutal. Two 4 game road trips out west and most of our competition is tough.

Well, one thing is clear, if they do make the playoffs they will have done it the hard way and will be a force to be reckoned with, not a just roll over and die team

tadscout
01-19-2010, 02:17 AM
Ok sorry couldn't help it! :laugh::-p

<object style="height: 344px; width: 425px"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/40mhBE5MpbA"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/40mhBE5MpbA" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></object>

BRushWithDeath
01-19-2010, 02:52 AM
This is the same as the thread that came out last year saying .500 was still possible.

Yes, mathematically, there is a chance. Realistically, there is none.

Infinite MAN_force
01-19-2010, 03:07 AM
If this team makes the playoffs at this point, there is no doubt they will have earned it. I hope for the best.

Will Galen
01-19-2010, 03:40 AM
If this team makes the playoffs at this point, there is no doubt they will have earned it. I hope for the best.

Basically as a rule of thumb they would have to win 3 out of 5 to have a shot.

Their next five games are thus;

<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="oddrow"><td><nobr>Tue, Jan 19</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">@ Miami (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mia)</td> <!--gamestatus =1 --><td align="right">
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=300119014)</td> <td align="center"> </td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="2">
</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td><nobr>Wed, Jan 20</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">@ Orlando (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=orl)</td> <!--gamestatus =1 --><td align="right">
</td> <td align="center"> </td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="2">
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td><nobr>Fri, Jan 22</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">@ Detroit (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=det)</td> <!--gamestatus =1 --><td align="right">
</td> <td align="center"> </td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="2">
</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td><nobr>Sat, Jan 23</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">Philadelphia (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=phi)</td> <!--gamestatus =1 --><td align="right">
</td> <td align="center"> </td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="2"> (http://www.stubhub.com/nba-tickets/indiana-pacers-tickets/)
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td><nobr>Mon, Jan 25</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">@ Philadelphia (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=phi)</td></tr></tbody></table>
It looks like they could win 3 of their next 5.

cinotimz
01-19-2010, 06:35 AM
Basically as a rule of thumb they would have to win 3 out of 5 to have a shot.

Their next five games are thus;

<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="oddrow"><td><nobr>Tue, Jan 19</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">@ Miami (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mia)</td> <!--gamestatus =1 --><td align="right">
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=300119014)</td> <td align="center"> </td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="2">
</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td><nobr>Wed, Jan 20</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">@ Orlando (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=orl)</td> <!--gamestatus =1 --><td align="right">
</td> <td align="center"> </td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="2">
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td><nobr>Fri, Jan 22</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">@ Detroit (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=det)</td> <!--gamestatus =1 --><td align="right">
</td> <td align="center"> </td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="2">
</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td><nobr>Sat, Jan 23</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">Philadelphia (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=phi)</td> <!--gamestatus =1 --><td align="right">
</td> <td align="center"> </td> <td>
</td> <td colspan="2"> (http://www.stubhub.com/nba-tickets/indiana-pacers-tickets/)
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td><nobr>Mon, Jan 25</nobr></td> <!--January == January--><td align="left">@ Philadelphia (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=phi)</td></tr></tbody></table>
It looks like they could win 3 of their next 5.

Hmmm. Only 1 home game in the next 5 and that one home game is on the backend of a back-to-back?

I could say its just as likely they could lose all 5.

count55
01-19-2010, 06:53 AM
Looking at it subjectively, the general assumption I had coming into the season was that this team, fully healthy, had roughly .500 talent. I think that's basically still true, and I think that we'll probably see that team over the last three or so months of the season.

My guess is that we'll be +/- a couple of games of .500 over the last 42 games, which puts us pretty much where Hicks notes...low-30's.

cinotimz
01-19-2010, 07:21 AM
Looking at it subjectively, the general assumption I had coming into the season was that this team, fully healthy, had roughly .500 talent. I think that's basically still true, and I think that we'll probably see that team over the last three or so months of the season.

My guess is that we'll be +/- a couple of games of .500 over the last 42 games, which puts us pretty much where Hicks notes...low-30's.

Or in other words, well out of the playoffs and in no-mans-land. The absolute worst place to finish is just outside of the playoffs.

Exactly where we have consistently finished the last few years. Call us the kings of mediocrity. And mediocrity breeds mediocrity.

Phree Refill
01-19-2010, 07:25 AM
This is the same as the thread that came out last year saying .500 was still possible.

Yes, mathematically, there is a chance. Realistically, there is none.

I was actually going to wait until after tonights game and resurrect that topic again. If we win tongiht, we will have the same record through 41 as we did last year through 41.

Unclebuck
01-19-2010, 08:28 AM
Pacers will not make the playoffs - bottomline - too many better teams in front of the pacers. Barring a significant injuries the 4 teams from that list that are in will stay in

Brad8888
01-19-2010, 10:13 AM
If the Pacers shoot 43% as a team from the arc from here on out, and don't get beat by being outscored from the line by an average of 7 per game at the line, there might be a chance.

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

Hicks
01-19-2010, 11:31 AM
Or in other words, well out of the playoffs and in no-mans-land. The absolute worst place to finish is just outside of the playoffs.

Pretty much.

However, I won't be pissed at the team. This is (playing to win) what they wanted all year, but things didn't go according to plan (Granger being out, Mike still not "back", Rush regressing from last spring, TJ flops) and they got in yet another hole early.

Now that things might be turning around to a point (Watson/Price is looking decent, if not great, Mike's looking closer to normal, Danny's shown signs of last year's Danny, Roy's improving), they should finally start seeing results in the win/loss column.

I don't begrudge them for not tanking. Not when they finally have a chance to see what they have / what they can do.


Call us the kings of mediocrity. And mediocrity breeds mediocrity.

Except when it doesn't. Neither of our "leaps" (94-2000, 2003-2005) were preceded by sucky teams with a bunch of high lottery picks. The "leap" can and does happen when you change your mix of talent in a trade, and/or change your coach, and/or add talent in a trade. We'll have our shot soon enough.

As with any chosen path in the NBA, nothing is certain, but the Pacers will have a chance at "leaping" in the next year or two.

McKeyFan
01-19-2010, 11:37 AM
I believe our record would be significantly better at this point if JOB had benched TJ Ford much earlier, kept giving Dahntay Jones healthy minutes, given Roy more minutes, and not played Murph so many minutes (say 25 instead of 35).

JOB benched Ford way too late, finally got back to using DJones, now gives Hibbert significant minutes, and still hasn't given in to using Murphy in more limited minutes.

Poor coaching has put us in a very difficult position to make the playoffs.

JB24
01-19-2010, 12:04 PM
I believe our record would be significantly better at this point if JOB had benched TJ Ford much earlier, kept giving Dahntay Jones healthy minutes, given Roy more minutes, and not played Murph so many minutes (say 25 instead of 35).

JOB benched Ford way too late, finally got back to using DJones, now gives Hibbert significant minutes, and still hasn't given in to using Murphy in more limited minutes.

Poor coaching has put us in a very difficult position to make the playoffs.

Nothing to do with health, right?

How many coaches would have sat Ford from the outset, and entrusted the 52nd pick PG with significant minutes? And Jones was getting decent minutes until Granger came back iirc. Don't take me for a JOB fan mind you- i agree with your Roy and Murph points, but the team needed to be completely healthy to take advantage of the soft early schedule (easiest in the league thus far) and they weren't. Don't know what people were expecting with all the injury problems and subsequent lack of strength in depth.

McKeyFan
01-19-2010, 03:19 PM
Nothing to do with health, right?

How many coaches would have sat Ford from the outset, and entrusted the 52nd pick PG with significant minutes? And Jones was getting decent minutes until Granger came back iirc. Don't take me for a JOB fan mind you- i agree with your Roy and Murph points, but the team needed to be completely healthy to take advantage of the soft early schedule (easiest in the league thus far) and they weren't. Don't know what people were expecting with all the injury problems and subsequent lack of strength in depth.

He could have benched Ford 15 games in instead of 35 games in.

Dahntay's minutes were greatly reduced before Granger's injury.