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View Full Version : DX By the Numbers: PG Crop



ESutt7
06-17-2009, 09:15 AM
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Just-By-the-Numbers-This-Years-Point-Guard-Crop-3262/

Very interesting. I'm not one to put a ton of stock in numbers, but use them as a part of an evaluation. That said, it's amazing to me how low Lawson is projected to go. In these stats he is an absolute stud. He's not tall, but there are a few PGs that get away with that because of their quickness and savvy.

His measures and college numbers compare with what CP3 did in the same league, yet Lawson is projected to go 17-25. He won a Championship and was clearly the leader of a talented bunch. And based on his interviews, is highly motivated to be one of the best.

He already has a great feel, great decision making, elite speed/quickness/handle, scores effectively, is a good finisher and solid FT shooter, and his jumper has improved each year. He's coming from a top level program. Some may argue that he is a product of the system, but I think he'll prove in the NBA that that isn't the case. I'm believing more and more that this kid can be a very good NBA PG, and he's getting completely overlooked.

If the Pacers can't get Johnson first, I think I may want Lawson second now (unless we can't move another PG).

PacerDude
06-17-2009, 09:19 AM
Just keep in mind that the only people we've heard from on the draft are people that won't actually be drafting players.

Skaut_Ech
06-17-2009, 09:24 AM
I agree. It seems the prognosticators are going more on hype than anything on the vast majority of PGS lised ahead of Ty. In terms of lack of question marks, I think Lawson has the most stability. I think Lawson is going to be a VERY solid pro, while I question just about every other PG projected above him. IF we can/do move one of our PGs, I would be THRILLED to get Ty.

ESutt7
06-17-2009, 09:35 AM
You're right, but MOST teams in the lottery (IMO) are teams that want to draft the superstar, or the one with the most upside rather than the sure thing. So they look at Lawson as solid, or near his ceiling perhaps, when guys like Evans, Curry, Holiday, Jennings, and Flynn aren't "all they can be yet." They get caught up in that IMO.

Though Lawson has continually said that his range is 5-14. But who knows if that's true? He may think he's coming here since we may have drafted him last year.

cdash
06-17-2009, 09:42 AM
Yeah, I actually don't like Lawson.

ESutt7
06-17-2009, 09:48 AM
Yeah, I actually don't like Lawson.

I didn't originally, but that was probably bias out of being sick of seeing UNC. Do you not like his personality, or think he's a product of the system, or just too small?

Skaut_Ech
06-17-2009, 10:05 AM
Cdash, here's been your past few posts;

<link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Ch1427%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsoh tml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><!--><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> [I]Maybe I'm missing something, but I just don't see the allure of James Johnson. He just doesn't do anything for me.<o></o>

[I]Yeah, I actually don't like Lawson.<o></o>
<o></o>
NBADraft.net is awful. Never I had seen anything useful on that website, and their mocks are laughable.


"Awful" "doesn't do anything for me" "'Don't like"

Like ESutt asked, how about some elaboration? On sentence posts are nice and all, but for me, it makes for a better discussion if you actually put a reason behind your thinking of feeling. Not trying to call you out, but man, pretty harsh opinions for not giving any reason why you think them

cdash
06-17-2009, 10:30 AM
Cdash, here's been your past few posts;

<link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Ch1427%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsoh tml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><!--><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> [I]Maybe I'm missing something, but I just don't see the allure of James Johnson. He just doesn't do anything for me.<o></o>

[I]Yeah, I actually don't like Lawson.<o></o>
<o></o>
NBADraft.net is awful. Never I had seen anything useful on that website, and their mocks are laughable.


"Awful" "doesn't do anything for me" "'Don't like"

Like ESutt asked, how about some elaboration? On sentence posts are nice and all, but for me, it makes for a better discussion if you actually put a reason behind your thinking of feeling. Not trying to call you out, but man, pretty harsh opinions for not giving any reason why you think them

Sure.

Regarding NBADraft.net: That one is pretty straightforward. I go there and glance at their mock drafts, and they are often times so far off the grid that I can't take anything that they write to heart. Their current incarnation of the mock draft isn't as bad as usual, but Teague going #10 is pretty far fetched, especially seeing as how Milwaukee has come out said they don't have any interest in him.

Regarding James Johnson: He just seems like a tweener to me. I watched Wake Forest a couple of times during the season and he just didn't strike me as a guy who would be very good in the NBA. I don't see that he has any one skill that is significantly above average, and I just don't think a guy like that is worth a lottery pick.

Regarding Ty Lawson: His size does concern me a little bit. I realize he is quick, but when he drives, he almost always goes right. He is very right hand dominant, which is okay in college when your team is vastly superior talent-wise, but NBA defenses will catch onto that. There are some things I like about him (assist-to-turnover ratio is excellent, he played on a winner, he improved upon his game each year), but I have concerns about drafting him, especially when TJ Ford is still on the roster. Their skill sets are awfully similar. Basically, I think there are better options at #13 than Ty Lawson.

ESutt7
06-17-2009, 10:33 AM
OK, I can certainly see that. I didn't see a lot of JJ this year, so honestly my opinion of him is colored by what I've read about him and from TBird's excellent analysis. Lawson has grown on me a ton in the last few weeks. I'd be interested to know who you DO like that will be around at 13.

cdash
06-17-2009, 10:43 AM
OK, I can certainly see that. I didn't see a lot of JJ this year, so honestly my opinion of him is colored by what I've read about him and from TBird's excellent analysis. Lawson has grown on me a ton in the last few weeks. I'd be interested to know who you DO like that will be around at 13.

Haha, figured that was coming. First off, I think someone who expects to go in the top 10 is going to fall to us. If I had to guess, I'd say it'll probably be Flynn or Jennings, both of whom I'd be fine with us taking, especially Jennings. Others I like (to varying degrees) at #13: DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark, Gerald Henderson. In general, I'm not a big fan of this draft. I do think we are in a nice position to sit back and watch the dominoes fall. If Jennings is there, he is the pick for me.

Naptown_Seth
06-17-2009, 11:01 AM
He already has a great feel, great decision making, elite speed/quickness/handle, scores effectively, is a good finisher and solid FT shooter, and his jumper has improved each year. He's coming from a top level program. Some may argue that he is a product of the system,
Strongly disagree on handles, he is not an elite ball handler. He is a speedy guy with good enough handles, but when trapped for forced to make a move he can't pull out a reverse or crossover like Maynor or even Teague can.

He would get trapped and be forced to turn his back to the basket in order to dribble around and out of the trap. To me he was also more of a flat palmed dribbler than the higher ranked PGs.

Keep this in mind, if you put EDDIE GILL at Carolina it's not like he or the team would flounder. He was pretty quick, decent handles, decent college range jumper.

Lots of guys with borderline NBA talent can put up quality NCAA numbers. My question is always how they do it. And don't get me wrong, I like parts of Lawson's game, just like I like Collison's handles and quickness (both much better than Ty's). But it takes more than just a portion of the package at the next level. Ty isn't close to Collison good with the ball, and Collison doesn't have any vision or the ability to run a team, or even the PnR (Holliday killed him in this area when given the few chances he got).


And I would definitely argue he is a product of the system. It USED TO BE that Carolina was all NBA guys shoved together and Duke was system guys that couldn't push upward at the next level. But IMO that's changed, especially since the coaching change at NC.

NC was the perfect example of good but not great system players working together.

Naptown_Seth
06-17-2009, 11:09 AM
Haha, figured that was coming. First off, I think someone who expects to go in the top 10 is going to fall to us. If I had to guess, I'd say it'll probably be Flynn or Jennings, both of whom I'd be fine with us taking, especially Jennings. Others I like (to varying degrees) at #13: DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark, Gerald Henderson. In general, I'm not a big fan of this draft. I do think we are in a nice position to sit back and watch the dominoes fall. If Jennings is there, he is the pick for me.
I agree with your sentiments here. Way back around FEB or so I wanted them to trade out of this draft quite a bit. And my other repeated statement lately is I hate the value at 13. Fair picks higher are there and below, meaning if you are at 8 you can get a guy worth that I think, and if you are back at 17-25 you can get guys that are nice picks for that spot. But at 13 it's feeling like they will have to settle on reaching for a #18 guy.

Of course the unexpected fortunate drop (Granger) is always a possibility.


I'm trying to spend more time looking at Johnson again, but I agree on the tweener thing. I wasn't even impressed with Aminu as a PF, but he's more PF than Johnson from the few games I have had the chance to watch.

Jonathan
06-17-2009, 11:11 AM
I love Ty Lawson and while similar in size & both very quick they are different. Lawson is way better in the open court he looks to distribute the ball. TJ tries to score the ball more than distribute.

I would have no problem drafting Lawson having him back up TJ or JJ and have either TJ or JJ as six man off the bench. Lawson upgrades the talent on this team.