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View Full Version : Tbird 2009 draft analysis #11: Best of rest, 2nd round possibilities, and officially calling my shot on who we should draft



thunderbird1245
06-16-2009, 09:11 PM
With just 9 days to go until the 2009 NBA draft begins, I wanted to wrap up the draft notebook with some blurbs on some other players I took notes on, but either didnt have enough film on, or didn't project them to be seriously considered by Indiana. In a couple of cases, I just ran out of time to do something in depth on them like I would have liked. Before I clear out my draft notes however, the list below were the players I went over in excruciating detail.

1. Ty Lawson
2. Gerald Henderson
3. Jrue Holiday
4. DeJuan Blair
5. Jonny Flynn
6. Jeff Teague
7. Eric Maynor
8. Earl Clark
9. James Johnson
10. Terrence Williams

I lacked film of Brandon Jennings, who appears to be a possibility for us at #13 as I write this, so I did not profile him.

I also chose not to spend time on players who I feel have no chance to drop to us, nor was I able to do a complete breakdown of all the players that were requested of me to do by many of you reading this board.

Despite the lack of ability and time to do my normal long winded breakdowns, I do have some wrap up thoughts on some of the players I didn't get to that I wanted to post.

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AUSTIN DAYE is a intriguing player with some pretty good potential. He has long arms, great height, and looks like he might be a decent NBA player someday. However, his extreme lack of strength and weight mean to me that he is years away from being able to help a team compete. He will need 2-3 years before he is able to even compete against some of the NBA bodies he will need to. I think he projects as a long and lean NBA small forward off someone's bench someday, maybe like Outlaw from Portland. Despite some mock drafts having us taking Daye, I see absolutely zero chance of that actually happening. Teams that think more long term or that have multiple picks may take a chance on him though. I think he made the right move coming out, as he won't get the type of coaching and competition to help him improve playing at Gonzaga.

TYLER HANSBOROUGH will be a decent NBA player that your coaching staff is always glad to have on your team. He will help you in practice as a guy who will push your veterans to play hard, and he has some skills to really help a team as a bench role player. He is exceptional fast at changing ends, and he will be among the league leaders in garbage points if he plays enough. On cold February nights during a stretch of 3 games in 4 nights, he will come in and spark a team to a victory with his hustle and hard play. Fundamentally his footwork with the ball is excellent, despite the fact that he can't score over anyone bigger than him at this level I don't think. Utah makes alot of sense at #20 for him, and teams on either side of them may also be interested. He reminds me alot of a Luis Scola type player.

BJ MULLINS sucks right now, quite frankly. He is weak, immature, not fundamentally sound, not a student of the game it appears, and probably has no business being in the draft at all. He can't hold his ground, doesnt have basketball instincts, and looks like a guy who only plays basketball because he is tall and is good, not because he loves it. His family is poor and he entered the draft mainly for financial reasons, so for that reason I hope he makes it, and that this move works out for him. He is 3 years away at least from being able to play in the league with any regularity of effectiveness in my opinion. The best place for him to land would be Minnesota, so he can learn under Kevin McHale in a low pressure atmosphere. At his very top side, he might end up being Darko Milicec or Joel Pryzbilla.

WAYNE ELLINGTON is a limited player, but one who has the great skill of being able to make alot of jump shots, as he has a very sweet stroke from the perimeter, maybe the best in the entire draft. His future success is almost completely dependent on which team he ends up with, and he is set up for success potentially because he likely will go to a playoff team in the later first round....although once again I see Minnesota as a good fit at #28 perhaps. Oklahoma City, who needs players that can space the floor, makes sense to me as well. Ellington reminds me some of Craig Hodges, ex Chicago Bull.

SAM YOUNG from Pittsburgh will be a nice, tough minded defensive stopper in the league I think. He isn't a ballhandler really, but many teams with dominant type point guards really won't need him to be. Young will add a certain toughness and swagger to a team that I really like. To me, Young makes alot of sense for the Hornets at #21, who need younger legs on the wings, and who may end up trying to trade James Posey to a contender in order to save money. He also could potentially slip to the beginning of the second round, where I would suspect some team would move up to get him.

CHASE BUDINGER is a player we are rumored to be be interested in....I just don't see it. He is athletic, runs well, moves well, etc etc. But I don't see him as a great basketball player, he is just an athletic kid who I'm not sure loves to play. He can shoot well, and has a nice high release from the perimeter which is fun to watch. He doesnt seem to me to be able either to cut well or to be able to handle the ball well, so that leaves him as a spot up shooter type. Budinger would be a great fit perhaps for Philadelphia at #17, but I think that is too high for him personally. The Lakers at #29 seem like a good match to me, as Budinger would be a really good fit in the triangle offense, and as Trevor Ariza free agency insurance. Brent Barry seems to be the common comparable, and I can see that.

TAJ GIBSON isnt going to be a starter, but I suspect he will be able to stay in the league for a while. Looks like a Josh Powell type to me. As in dire need as we are for anyone athletic and long on the front line, I wouldnt be suprised if we at least considered trying to cheaply buy a pick from Cleveland at the very bottom of the first round to look at a guy like Gibson, who would make our team I believe.

DANNY GREEN I think is going to be a nice second round pick up for someone....I like his all around game, and think he was overshadowed by some really great players in the North Carolina program.

DARREN COLLISON drove me nuts watching him on offense for UCLA, but I really really like his defensive pedigree and quickness. I think he makes a nice second round pick as a defensive point guard specialist...he can help you guard a Rondo/Parker/Paul type ultra quick point guard. I think he likely will end up with a smart team, such as the Lakers, who need someone who can defend the quicker point guards badly.....it was their biggest team weakness.

RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS looks on paper like a fascinating second round prospect, if for no other reason than just his measurables. I've obviously never seen the young man play, but if he has any ability to play at all I bet he'd be alot of fun to watch, if for no other reason than just to watch him play defense with that gigantic wingspan. Any point guard with a wingspan like an NBA power forward would have to be considered I think, and I bet whoever takes him will be able to leave him in Europe while he develops.


If any of you have any other comments on players I didn't do a full profile on please feel free to add them here. Or, if any of you saw the list of players above more than I did and have any impressions of them you can share, please do that as well.

Thanks to all of you who said or wrote such nice things to me in regards to these individual draft analysis threads. I'll have a couple of more postings in regards to the draft before next Thursday, including one discussing the lost of "NBA present and past comparables" I came up with for each player, and possibly a mock draft of my own next Tuesday or Wednesday.

At some point, all of us, just for fun, need to call our own shot in regards to who we think we both SHOULD and WILL take in the draft this year. Just for the record, I'm on board officially with saying that our single best selection/best fit/best player at #13 is James Johnson. I am still unclear if that is what I think we WILL do, but I think that is what we SHOULD do, if he is on the board still when we pick.

As always, the above is just my opinion.

Tbird

DrFife
06-16-2009, 09:58 PM
A final request, Tbird, would be to have you weigh in on Jordan Hill, in my opinion the one player we may be considering trading up to get (especially if he slips past Washington at #5). Having come to basketball late, he's raw, but he's certainly long and athletic, and seems to have at least some toughness.

I'm not concerned with our eventual draftee's fit or contribution next season, but unless we trade down, I want the guy we pick to have a good chance of being a starter (maybe even a star) in two to three years. Given THE PLAN, I believe TPTB have this orientation as well. If, through trades, we could turn the #13 into two slightly-lower-first-rounders, how great it would be to strengthen our team with, say, Clark and Maynor! I'm uneasy, though, with the projected value at #13 this year, even in the form of James Johnson. So I'd love to know your opinion: Is Hill and his potential worth pursuing?

Coop
06-16-2009, 10:37 PM
Tbird, what do you think of a guy like Derrick Brown from Xavier in the second round? He seems like a perfect fit for some frontcourt depth. He's about 6'8" 230 with good potential and a lot of athleticism. He played great defense for Xavier and I have a feeling that will carry over to the NBA.

<TABLE class=inputbox cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR itxtvisited="1"><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Height w/o Shoes (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Derrick-Brown-1203/#)</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Height w/shoes</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Weight</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Wingspan</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Standing Reach</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Body Fat</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">No Step Vert</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Max Vert</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Bench Press</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Lane Agility</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">3/4 Court Sprint</TH><TH align=middle itxtvisited="1">Class Rank</TH></TR><TR onmouseover=h(this); style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onmouseout="uh(this,'#FFFFFF');" bgColor=#ffffff itxtvisited="1"><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">6' 7.5"</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">6' 8.5"</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">225</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">7' 2.5"</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">8' 11.5"</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">8.6</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">30.5</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">35.5</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">20</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">11.26</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">3.13</TD><TD align=middle itxtvisited="1">NA</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

There's a possibility he could be picked up before the 22nd pick in the 2nd round. He's been one of my darkhorses for a while though. I'd love to see us pick him up if we don't take Blair or Johnson in the first round.

ESutt7
06-16-2009, 10:54 PM
Tbird, what do you think of a guy like Derrick Brown from Xavier in the second round? He seems like a perfect fit for some frontcourt depth. He's about 6'8" 230 with good potential and a lot of athleticism. He played great defense for Xavier and I have a feeling that will carry over to the NBA.

<table class="inputbox" itxtvisited="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody itxtvisited="1"><tr itxtvisited="1"><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Height w/o Shoes (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Derrick-Brown-1203/#)</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Height w/shoes</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Weight</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Wingspan</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Standing Reach</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Body Fat</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">No Step Vert</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Max Vert</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Bench Press</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Lane Agility</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">3/4 Court Sprint</th><th itxtvisited="1" align="middle">Class Rank</th></tr><tr onmouseover="h(this);" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" onmouseout="uh(this,'#FFFFFF');" itxtvisited="1" bgcolor="#ffffff"><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">6' 7.5"</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">6' 8.5"</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">225</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">7' 2.5"</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">8' 11.5"</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">8.6</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">30.5</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">35.5</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">20</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">11.26</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">3.13</td><td itxtvisited="1" align="middle">NA</td></tr></tbody></table>

There's a possibility he could be picked up before the 22nd pick in the 2nd round. He's been one of my darkhorses for a while though. I'd love to see us pick him up if we don't take Blair or Johnson in the first round.

Wow good call. Great wingspan, good height etc.! Xavier turns out some pretty quality kids from the ones I've known. I'd be good with that.

ESutt7
06-16-2009, 10:55 PM
TBird: IF James Johnson is gone at 13, as some believe he could be...

then who would you want our Pacers to pick? Basically if Johnson is #1 on your draft board, who is #2, and who is #3, if you've made that decision?

Major Cold
06-16-2009, 10:58 PM
RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS looks on paper like a fascinating second round prospect, if for no other reason than just his measurables. I've obviously never seen the young man play, but if he has any ability to play at all I bet he'd be alot of fun to watch, if for no other reason than just to watch him play defense with that gigantic wingspan. Any point guard with a wingspan like an NBA power forward would have to be considered I think, and I bet whoever takes him will be able to leave him in Europe while he develops.

I would like this guy as well. Apparently he tore the Euro Camp up.

Low risk, maybe a high reward player. The scouts love him.

thunderbird1245
06-17-2009, 07:47 AM
TBird: IF James Johnson is gone at 13, as some believe he could be...

then who would you want our Pacers to pick? Basically if Johnson is #1 on your draft board, who is #2, and who is #3, if you've made that decision?


Well, it would depend on the decisions Larry Bird makes about our point guard situation mainly.

I liked Lawson and Maynor alot particularly at the PG, and while I didn't give him all that positive of a review I certainly can see at least a potential in Jrue Holiday, just due to his size and athleticism. But if you keep both Jack and Ford on your roster, I see no reason to pick any of them. If you decide to trade or not re-sign one of our current top 2 point guards, then selecting one of the above listed makes sense, as would Brandon Jennings if he happens to drop....even though I haven't seen him play, I assume most scouts are correct in saying he has Kenny Anderson/Tony Parker type of ball skills.

Assuming you do re-sign Jack and keep Ford, then you eliminate all the point guards from your thinking I believe. If you assume for the purposes of this exercise that Johnson is gone as well, then I'd have a major decision to make: Take the player who I think is more of a sure thing in Gerald Henderson (high quality individual, great program, great background, but no star potential and unlikely to be a starter for us) vs gambling on a player who fits our needs more, but who has attitude/playing hard questions lingering over him in Earl Clark. Because of his defensive limitations pairing together with both Troy Murphy and Roy Hibbert, I am not that interested in Dejuan Blair, as I described in detail in my draft profile of him.

My decision would be that you never take a player who you have to coach to play hard consistently, so I'd probably take Henderson personally, which is exactly what I think Indiana will do as well.

The really fun scenario for draft night is going to be if the Pacers take a PG at #13, but then either have not announced a trade of Ford yet nor announce any publicity to the crowd at Conseco about the pick.....if the Pacers pick a player at #13 then don't immediately start the PR stuff about him on the ground at the arena to the fans in attendance, there likely is a deal being negotiated behind the scenes.

Justin Tyme
06-17-2009, 08:56 AM
T-Bird:

Your picks are very similar to mine. I would like to see Bird get a 2nd 1st pick, but I don't see the Simons "doling" out the money to buy one as Walsh's Dolan would. To me if the Pacers get another pick it will be thru a trade... maybe a trade of the 13th to Minnie for their 18 and 28 picks. Something like that. I just don't see the Pacers having much to trade with no expirings except possibly Foster. From what I have read most teams are wanting to trade large contracts to get better off financially, and the Pacers can't afford that. My guess is Bird isn't going to get any type of trade done, and the 13th & 52nd picks are what the Pacers will end up having when it's all done. That's why to me it's imperative for Bird to pick the right player with the 13th. He's under the gun to make the right choice.

It's always a possibility that the Pacers could trade Ford. A Ford & 13th to Minnie for Cardinal, Craig Smith, and the 18th & 28th pick would work. It gives Minnie the PG they need to go along with Foye and the 13th pick to go along with their #6 pick. The Pacers could pick up Maynor at 18 and maybe Sam Young/Pendergraph/Budinger at 28th. I also would ask to flip the 09 2nd picks of Pacers #52 for Minnie's #46. I believe this is a reasonable trade for both. David Kahn with his Pacer connection is looking to make a big splash in the draft.

ESutt7
06-17-2009, 09:32 AM
Ford/Foye would be one smaaaaallll backcourt. Wasn't Miami trying to deal Marion for Ford last summer? They could be interested still, as Ford could give Wade a break from all of his ball handling duties, and be able to create his own offense better than most of their roster. Chalmers could come off the bench.

Haslem for Ford works straight up. Miami could run with Ford/Wade/Jones/Beasley/O'Neal which could be a solid lineup in the East if Beasley improves. He could cause matchup problems as a perimeter 4, and this gets him more minutes. They'd still have to upgrade the roster, but they'd be trading a 29 year old PF for a 26 year old PG. It at least makes some sense for both teams to me, IF the Pacers want to pick up Lawson or another PG at 13.

I still think JJ is the best way to go, but I'd be happy with Lawson too now.

idioteque
06-17-2009, 09:37 AM
I agree with you T-Bird that our likely pick is James Johnson, SF/PF, Wake Forest. If he's not available, I think we'll go with Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, Duke. If he's not there, we'll go DeJaun Blair, PF, Pitt. If all three of those are gone (which is a nightmare scenario for us IMHO) we'll probably go with Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina (not an ideal pick for me but I think TPTB like him).

Those are my top 4 likely picks for the Pacers. All of this is assuming that Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy, doesn't drop. I like T-Will but I'm betting we stay away from him unless the drat board is just somehow gutted, and if we do draft him, he'll be on another team by the end of the night.

ESutt7
06-17-2009, 09:46 AM
Maybe I don't see the same value in Henderson, but to me he would always be a backup 2. IMO you can always find those, and while he may become like Raja Bell or something I just think the Pacers would want more than that. He could back up the 2 and 3 (maybe) but if Dunleavy is healthy, I just don't think he'd upgrade our roster much. But I'm not as high on him as some. I like his character and athleticism.

Honestly, after last year's draft, I'll trust in whomever the front office deems to be the best choice at 13. If they think it's Blair, I'll believe them, even if I like JJ and Lawson more. If they like Henderson, then by all means. I think we're on the right track and I'll support anyone we get at 13.

idioteque
06-17-2009, 09:49 AM
Maybe I don't see the same value in Henderson, but to me he would always be a backup 2. IMO you can always find those, and while he may become like Raja Bell or something I just think the Pacers would want more than that.

In this weak draft, a Raja Bell would be alright with me. Danny Granger is an All-Star, Brandon Rush is starting to show Robin tendencies, and Hibbert is probably going to be a pretty productive center. A physical 6th man would look nice with our young core.

CableKC
06-17-2009, 04:25 PM
TBird, thanks for the post....but I'm surprised that you didn't include Jeff Pendegraph in your list.

rexnom
06-17-2009, 06:42 PM
TBird, thanks for this series. You're not only as good or better as the draft specialists but you focus on the Pacers and the prospects for our team. Absolutely invaluable.

imawhat
06-17-2009, 11:31 PM
TBird, thanks for this series. You're not only as good or better as the draft specialists but you focus on the Pacers and the prospects for our team. Absolutely invaluable.

No kidding. I've really been looking forward to reading these. I appreciate that t-bird looks for hidden attributes in players (motivation, skills that may be misused by coaches, etc.). It's especially good for those of us that only see limited college basketball.

avoidingtheclowns
06-26-2009, 11:30 AM
TYLER HANSBOROUGH will be a decent NBA player that your coaching staff is always glad to have on your team. He will help you in practice as a guy who will push your veterans to play hard, and he has some skills to really help a team as a bench role player. He is exceptional fast at changing ends, and he will be among the league leaders in garbage points if he plays enough. On cold February nights during a stretch of 3 games in 4 nights, he will come in and spark a team to a victory with his hustle and hard play. Fundamentally his footwork with the ball is excellent, despite the fact that he can't score over anyone bigger than him at this level I don't think. Utah makes alot of sense at #20 for him, and teams on either side of them may also be interested. He reminds me alot of a Luis Scola type player.

Just bumping to re-read Tbird's analysis.

maragin
06-26-2009, 06:19 PM
I remember being a little miffed that we picked someone I didn't feel fully informed on because he wasn't one of the 10 that Tbird covered.

Tbird: I humbly request a write up on Tyler similar to the detail of the other candidates. I'd love to get some nuts and bolts on how he fits with us. Price would be nice as well. I'd imagine you have something like this in the works, but I figured I'd make it official.

hoosierguy
06-26-2009, 06:29 PM
Just bumping to re-read Tbird's analysis.

"He reminds me a lot of a Luis Scola type player."

Hot damn!! I think everyone on here would be thrilled if Hansbrough develops into a Luis Scola player. I have been nothing but impressed with Scola every time I have seen him play. He was a big part of the Rockets' success.