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DrFife
05-19-2009, 10:01 PM
I apologize in advance for the length of this entry, folks, but I thought it made sense to keep the sections in one thread. Anyway, now that another season is behind us, I will offer my magnum opus: a summary report of a league analysis I generate (twice) each year. It’s my thanks to the entire PD community. I hope that in reviewing where we and other teams have been, and in forming opinions on “where we’re going,” you will find some of this information interesting.

The analysis uses a normalization-based regression algorithm grouping most of the league’s players to suggest a salary based on overall productivity. I emphasize that save for a few obvious exceptions, the comments below are based entirely on the output from commonly-collected statistics and what they imply in terms of overall value as determined by the salary structure. Note, too, that injuries (in terms of number of games played) affect a player’s value.

The Pacers
No big surprises here. It’s no secret that Danny Granger played his way into elite status and, with an overall rank of 14th, certainly deserves all-star status, though not quite the nearly $10-million salary he’ll be receiving starting next season. As Danny mentioned in his MIP acceptance speech, Troy Murphy certainly improved a lot as well – as did Jarrett Jack, Marquis Daniels and (to a lesser extent) T.J. Ford – though as many complain, Ford (not to mention Murphy and Jeff Foster) continues to be significantly overpaid. Also of note, if not surprising, is that in terms of overall productivity, Daniels, Foster, Rasho Nesterovich, Travis Diener, Josh McRoberts and Stephen Graham all fell off rather sharply over the second half of the season (although Foster – and Jack – performed at a similar level two years ago), while Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert remained steady. In fact, Rush easily “earned” his first-year salary. Jack, with a salary-value of $4.85 million, was the only other Pacer whose value exceeded his ($2m) salary this season. However, as has been discussed, the figures of his next contract are a key to upcoming team decisions. As for picking up Daniels’ $7.35 million option, my unequivocal answer is “no” because Daniels’ value was $4 million this season and although we would like to have him next season as insurance toward Mike Dunleavy’s uncertain health status, we can find better ways to spend/save the $3 million premium, especially when considering someone with injury questions of his own. In terms of salaries, Josh McRoberts’ value warrants roughly a $450,000 contract for next season, but he’ll certainly get more due to the p-word (potential). Travis Diener’s value this season was $1.2 million, but had he produced at the ’07-‘08 level, he would have been worth $2.1 million. Therefore, his agent likely will be pushing for more money through more playing time … which makes the T.J. Ford/Jarrett Jack situation all the more interesting.

The Rookies
Nearly everyone at PD seems pleased with the performances (and developmental potential) of our rookies and while not deserving of ROY honors, both have exceeded expectations predicted by the numbers. Those of you who appreciate Count’s analysis …

http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-default/showthread.php?t=43186&page=2

… will be gratified to know that my analysis, though done in quite a different manner, concurs. It also supports Count’s contention that “on the whole, you should be able to snare a decent career player [at #13], perhaps starter, with maybe a little All-Star potential.” While drafting in the NBA is far from a sure thing, and the supply of talent varies from year to year, a GM generally can be confident that a player chosen at #13 will quickly find his way into the rotation and be a top bench player after four years. A player chosen at #17 (e.g., Hibbert) can be expected to become a solid bench player. To date, both Rush and Hibbert are exceeding those expectations, playing in line with selections taken at #9 and #14, respectively. Incidentally, if we were to treat Josh McRoberts as a rookie, his value would suggest that of someone taken at the end of the first round … with a chance of being a regular contributor (9th or 10th man) in a few years.

Regarding the rest of the rookie class, I will offer grades based on comparing their overall productivity this first year to expectations from where they were selected:

A+ M Chalmers (34th), B Lopez (10th), M Gasol*
A A Morrow**, L Mbah a Moute (37th)
A- E Gordon (7th)
B+ C Lee (22nd), R Westbrook (4th), K Weaver (38th), OJ Mayo (3rd)
B N Batum (25th), D Arthur (27th), D Jordan (35th), A Randolph (14th), D Rose (1st), R Anderson (21st), J Thompson (12th)
B- J McGee (18th), G Hill (26th), M Speights (16th), B Rush (13th), C Douglas-Roberts (40th), D.J. Augustin (9th), G Dragic (45th)
C+ K Koufos (23rd), R Hibbert (17th)
C D Greene (28th), K Love (5th), JJ Hickson (19th)
C- B Walker (47th)
D+ R Lopez (15th)
D J Bayless (11th), M Beasley (2nd), J Alexander (8th)
F D Gallinari (6th), JR Giddens (30th)

* It may be a stretch to treat Marc Gasol (drafted #48 in 2007) as a rookie, but he clearly played very well.
** Anthony Morrow wins the “undrafted ROY award” in a landslide!

In terms of Rookie of the Year, the best-performing player was Derrick Rose, of course, but in terms of “Draftee of the Year,” Mario Chalmers takes the prize (although Brooke Lopez did darn well, even for a #10). Note: Don’t berate me for Chalmers’ disappearing act in the first-round of the playoffs; this report is based on regular-season stats only!

Around the League
One way to measure a team’s level of talent is to use a valuation system of individual players. (For a fabulous article that touches on the dissonance between the team and the individual, see Michael Lewis’ February 2009 New York Times article on Shane Battier:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&sq=shane%20battier&st=cse&scp=1.)

While Jeff Sagarin and Wayne Winston offer the ultimate system – tracking sets of players on the floor throughout a game – my analysis used correlations with team records to show that the Pacers’ talent level is (only) slightly below average: ranking 18th in the league. Inversely, then, they should be picking 13th in the upcoming draft. The Lakers have the most talent (Cleveland is third; Orlando, fifth; Denver, ninth), while the Kings have the least. In fact, in terms of talent need – again, “talent” based on individual productivity throughout the regular season – the top three draft picks should go to 1) Sacramento, 2) Memphis and 3) Milwaukee.

Another detail to squeeze out of this part of the analysis is to assess coaching by the relative record compared to relative talent. From this angle, Doc Rivers deserves Coach-of-the-Year honors for getting this year’s Celtics to finish at 0.756. (While the Lakers and Cavaliers finished with better records, they had even more talent.) Mike Dunleavy, Sr. gets the “Ax-of-the-Year” award for leading the Clippers to a 0.232 finish.

As far as other standard awards are concerned:

Most Valuable Player – LeBron James.

Most Improved Player – This was a very close race, but much to my chagrin, it was not Danny Granger (who finished fourth), nor was it Devin Harris, nor David Lee. In terms of scaled improvement in overall productivity from last year, it was Kevin Durant (MrSparko’s and Hoop’s objections to considering 2nd-year players noted), who raised his level of performance in more areas than Danny, also increased his scoring average by five points, and rose to the league’s top ten. (Think of it as the hill getting steeper as you near the top.) On the other end of the scale, Allen Iverson declined the most.

Defensive Player – Dwight Howard.

Sixth-man (my version: the highest-ranked player of those who finished sixth on his team in both rank and minutes played) – Antonio McDyess.

Individuals of note
Several players have shown strong, continuous improvement over the last few years (some of whom various Posters have been clamoring for at one time or another):
Boston – Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins
Chicago – John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas
Dallas – Brandon Bass
Golden State – Kelenna Azubuike
Indiana – Our very own Marquis Daniels
New York – Nate Robinson
Oklahoma City – Thabo Sefolosha
Portland – LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Przybilla
Utah – Ronnie Brewer and CJ Miles
Washington – Andre Blatche

[Personal commentary: John Salmons’ excellent play makes one wonder how Chicago will play its Ben Gordon/Luol Deng cards…. Portland fans, salivating over their team’s rosey (pun intended) future, must be wondering whether they want to endure Greg Oden’s dubious health history. (Buy low, sell high?) I imagine GM Kevin Pritchard will be going hard after a veteran PG. (Andre Miller?) … Utah may be in line for an adjustment or two; with the right moves, I believe they could be championship contenders in the next year or two.]

Concerning possible free agents to acquire, here are the values for several players of interest to PDers. While young players often secure inflated contracts due to their potential, veterans’ values can often be used as estimates for next-year salaries (assuming that the lowered adjustment in new salaries for ’09-’10 will roughly cancel out the typical yearly increase, but this year all bets are off):

Andre Miller – $7.5 million
Shawn Marion – $7.0 million
Ben Gordon – $6.9 million
Mike Bibby – $6.7 million
Ron Artest – $6.6 million
David Lee – $6.6 million
Rasheed Wallace – $5.3 million
Paul Millsap – $4.9 million*
Charlie Villaneuva – $4.6 million
Trevor Ariza – $4.2 million
Antonio McDyess – $4.0 million
Chris Anderson – $3.8 million
Luc Mbah a Moute – $2.9 million
Drew Gooden – $2.4 million
Brandon Bass – $2.3 million
Joe Smith – $1.9 million
Jason Maxiel – $1.7 million
Leon Powe – $1.4 million
Marcin Gortat – $1.3 million

*more next season, I think, because of projections as a starter

The Draft
I waited to post the report until after our draft position was finalized so that this section, which so often fills us with anticipation for the future, would be accurate. A top-three pick would have bent our minds hard right (in a good way!), but as things stand, my analysis – which assesses the theoretical value of draft picks by sorting according to ranked value from the previous year(s) – suggests that the 13th pick in the draft should develop into a sixth man/potential starter. While everyone hopes to uncover a hidden gem, embracing the notion of likely drafting a solid player with a limited ceiling may color one’s perspective (in a good way) on whom to select at 13 … or, when the moment arrives, whether to trade up or down.

I’ll post my own opinions/desires elsewhere on how the top half of the draft might unfold and who/what I’d like the team to draft. However, Speed raised a point (http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-default/showpost.php?p=882887&postcount=1048) about getting a player who can play two positions (3/4), which reminded me of a template of “interchangeable parts” that a former coach (who shall remain nameless) espoused. The dedicated-position-versus-interchangeable-parts debate rages on, but perhaps a solution is to imagine a team whose starters are ideal for one particular position, and yet whose bench players can “fill the gaps” by playing multiple positions. The point here is that by assuming that the 13th (or lower, should we trade down or acquire another late-first-round) pick will become a top bench player/borderline starter – and no more – we might be more inclined to draft a “tweener” (such as Terrence Williams, should he show well in workouts; or perhaps Earl Clark, should he fall during the draft). Given our current roster and barring a significant trade, however, will anyone we draft this year at 13 contribute immediately and ascend to a starter position over the next three years (when several large contacts expire)? Will TPTB instead use free agency (and trades?) to plug gaps with multi-position players and use the 13th pick to draft someone less ready, but perhaps with more potential to be a starter, or even a star, down the road?

Chad Ford at ESPN offers a titillating current perspective: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=PreDraftTour-090518).

Whomever the Pacers choose, some PDers will be skeptical if not downright furious. Disparate opinions already have been expressed about Earl Clark, DeJuan Blair, Jrue Holiday, Terrance Williams, Gerald Henderson … everyone after Blake Griffin, it seems. That’s a good thing: it illustrates the yearly challenge to GMs, and it makes it fun for us. However, of special note amidst the myriad possibilities for how this year’s draft will unfold is that the 13th pick seems roughly equivalent in (three-year) value to, say, Minnesota’s 18th and 28th picks. (With three first-round picks this year, Minnesota may be the center of trade attention throughout the league.) By the same token, Memphis’ 2nd and 27th picks are approximately equal in value to the Clippers’ 1st pick, and from a team-need standpoint (Memphis needs Griffin, the Clippers would benefit from Thabeet and depth), such a trade is not inconceivable (though, IMO, highly unlikely). Needless to say, given the number of teams with multiple first-round picks as well as ones with financial concerns, this draft may prove particularly interesting with pick-swap possibilities.

Trophy
05-19-2009, 10:02 PM
Great post.

MillerTime
05-19-2009, 10:16 PM
I think Gooden will get offered more than $2.4 million

maragin
05-20-2009, 08:32 PM
Fantasic, well thought out post. I appreciate the analysis and willingness to go against the grain with evaluations.

Brad8888
05-21-2009, 11:53 AM
Concerning possible free agents to acquire, here are the values for several players of interest to PDers. While young players often secure inflated contracts due to their potential, veterans’ values can often be used as estimates for next-year salaries (assuming that the lowered adjustment in new salaries for ’09-’10 will roughly cancel out the typical yearly increase, but this year all bets are off):

Andre Miller – $7.5 million
Shawn Marion – $7.0 million
Ben Gordon – $6.9 million
Mike Bibby – $6.7 million
Ron Artest – $6.6 million
David Lee – $6.6 million
Rasheed Wallace – $5.3 million
Paul Millsap – $4.9 million*
Charlie Villaneuva – $4.6 million
Trevor Ariza – $4.2 million
Antonio McDyess – $4.0 million
Chris Anderson – $3.8 million
Luc Mbah a Moute – $2.9 million
Drew Gooden – $2.4 million
Brandon Bass – $2.3 million
Joe Smith – $1.9 million
Jason Maxiel – $1.7 million
Leon Powe – $1.4 million
Marcin Gortat – $1.3 million

*more next season, I think, because of projections as a starter

.

:happydanc I'd like to place an order for some David Lee and Antonio McDyess, please, with a side order of Trevor Ariza. Ordinarily I would have liked an order of Leon Powe as well, but I'm full of players with a long term recovery ahead of them before they can return to our lineup. I'd like to make that a "to go" order because we would be going to the playoffs with a deep run towards the LeBron's.

In my opinion, anyone on this list besides Andre Miller, Artest, Rasheed, Gooden, and Joe Smith would be absolute steals at the salaries being projected here, and these players would only be omitted due to their past issues and significant attitude problems, not by what they bring to the floor.

We should feel like kids in a candy store with all of these affordable players coming on the market. If this is true, it should be quite an off season for us, and many other teams around the league who are in need of upgrades on the cheap, despite all of the cap difficulties facing the league. The problem is that any of their respective teams are capable of seeing this as well, and will gladly pay these prices for as long as they are able to lock the players in for, and in most cases it wouldn't surprise me if they get significantly more than that.

Putnam
05-21-2009, 11:57 AM
The analysis uses a normalization-based regression algorithm grouping most of the league’s players to suggest a salary based on overall productivity. I emphasize that save for a few obvious exceptions, the comments below are based entirely on the output from commonly-collected statistics and what they imply in terms of overall value as determined by the salary structure. Note, too, that injuries (in terms of number of games played) affect a player’s value.



Could you post more of this? I'd like to see the top few and bottom few players, and also how many (if any) of the mega-salary players earn their salaries according to your model. I presume you have a table comparing your model to the players' actual salaries.

avoidingtheclowns
05-21-2009, 12:14 PM
Could you post more of this? I'd like to see the top few and bottom few players, and also how many (if any) of the mega-salary players earn their salaries according to your model. I presume you have a table comparing your model to the players' actual salaries.

I'd be interested in seeing this as well but also...


It’s no secret that Danny Granger played his way into elite status and, with an overall rank of 14th, certainly deserves all-star status, though not quite the nearly $10-million salary he’ll be receiving starting next season.

I'd be interested in seeing how Danny compares to Andre Iguadala and Luol Deng, the two wings who established the Granger's price.

OakMoses
05-21-2009, 12:22 PM
I'm going to join the call for more data.

I'd also like to know who the most overpayed and underpaid big-minute (25+) players in the NBA are.

count55
05-21-2009, 12:39 PM
:happydanc I'd like to place an order for some David Lee and Antonio McDyess, please, with a side order of Trevor Ariza. Ordinarily I would have liked an order of Leon Powe as well, but I'm full of players with a long term recovery ahead of them before they can return to our lineup. I'd like to make that a "to go" order because we would be going to the playoffs with a deep run towards the LeBron's.

In my opinion, anyone on this list besides Andre Miller, Artest, Rasheed, Gooden, and Joe Smith would be absolute steals at the salaries being projected here, and these players would only be omitted due to their past issues and significant attitude problems, not by what they bring to the floor.

We should feel like kids in a candy store with all of these affordable players coming on the market. If this is true, it should be quite an off season for us, and many other teams around the league who are in need of upgrades on the cheap, despite all of the cap difficulties facing the league. The problem is that any of their respective teams are capable of seeing this as well, and will gladly pay these prices for as long as they are able to lock the players in for, and in most cases it wouldn't surprise me if they get significantly more than that.

First, I'm making some assumptions on methodology here, but I'm sure Doc will correct me if I'm wrong.

I don't think he's trying to project what theywill be paid...he's trying to project what they should be paid. Of course, there are a lot of intervening factors that will result in some players being paid more and some being paid less.

There will be inflationary factors, such as competition for services, intangible considerations, existing inflated contracts on comparable player. There will be deflationary factors in the form of the salary cap/luxury tax, the limited size of exceptions, and the limited number of teams with both the means and the interest to sign players.

These factors tend to not balance or soften each other. That is to say that a player's situation tends to either be inflationary or deflationary. As a result, you tend to end up with a lot of players who are either greatly overpaid or greatly underpaid.

There's a gap created between the scientific method being employed by Doc here and the actual market, and it's primarily because the decision makers tend to not be scientific when making their decisions.

count55
05-21-2009, 12:46 PM
I'd be interested in seeing this as well but also...



I'd be interested in seeing how Danny compares to Andre Iguadala and Luol Deng, the two wings who established the Granger's price.


I'm going to join the call for more data.

I'd also like to know who the most overpayed and underpaid big-minute (25+) players in the NBA are.

I'd also be curious about the entire Pacer roster.

Jarrett Jack, specifically.

How do rookie and min contract players impact the analysis? About 1/4 of the players in the league are on rookie contracts, and I'm guessing that guys like Danny and Derrick Rose blow the curve.

DrFife
05-21-2009, 08:46 PM
First, I'm making some assumptions on methodology here, but I'm sure Doc will correct me if I'm wrong.

I don't think he's trying to project what theywill be paid...he's trying to project what they should be paid. Of course, there are a lot of intervening factors that will result in some players being paid more and some being paid less.

There will be inflationary factors, such as competition for services, intangible considerations, existing inflated contracts on comparable player. There will be deflationary factors in the form of the salary cap/luxury tax, the limited size of exceptions, and the limited number of teams with both the means and the interest to sign players.

These factors tend to not balance or soften each other. That is to say that a player's situation tends to either be inflationary or deflationary. As a result, you tend to end up with a lot of players who are either greatly overpaid or greatly underpaid.

There's a gap created between the scientific method being employed by Doc here and the actual market, and it's primarily because the decision makers tend to not be scientific when making their decisions.

Perfect. I admire your exceptional clarity of thought and attention to detail, Count – here and elsewhere. Thank you, and thanks to all for your supportive comments and inquiries.

Here are the corresponding data to questions so far:

Top players (Putnam) –
1) LeBron James, Value = 15.5, ’08-’09 Salary = $14.4m
2) Dwyane Wade, Value = 15.3, Salary = $14.4m
3) Chris Paul, Value = 14.1, Salary = $4.6m ($13.8m for ’09-’10) … what a deal!

No other mega-salaried player is “earning” his money, value-wise. In fact, the next player whose value exceeds his salary is Devin Harris, with a value of 8.0 and an ’08-‘09 salary of $7.8 million. While many of those contracts were given before last year’s correction, my interpretation is that such contracts were/are given based on the expectation that the player would perform like a superstar.

All the bottom feeders are overpaid; the lowest-rated player whose value exceeds his salary is what-should-be 11th man on the Clippers, Mike Taylor (Value = 0.8, Salary = $0.7m).

Most overpaid (Mellifluous) –
1) Jermaine O’Neal (by $18.5m)
2) Tracy McGrady (by $18.3m)
3) Kevin Garnett (by $17.9m)

Most underpaid (Mellifluous) –
1) Chris Paul (by $9.6m)
2) Brandon Roy (by $6.9m)
3) Danny Granger (by $6.5m)

Top rookies (Count55) – As you can see, you’re right about rookies who quickly rise to stardom. The top contracts appropriately seem to describe a “potential star,” not an “already-a-star.”
1) Derrick Rose (Value = 7.3, Salary = $4.8m)
2) OJ Mayo (Value = 5.9, Salary = $3.9m)
3) Russell Westbrook (Value = 5.5, Salary = $3.5m)

Top 2nd-year players (Count55) –
1) Kevin Durant (Value = 10.2, Salary = $4.5m)
2) Jeff Green (Value = 5.9, Salary = $3.3m)
3) Al Horford (Value = 5.8, Salary = $4.0m)

Pacer roster & comparisons (Count55, Avoidingtheclowns) –
1) Danny Granger* (Value = 8.9, Salary = $2.3m, ’09-’10 Salary = $9.9m) … so he does need to get better!
2) Troy Murphy (Value = 6.5, Salary = $10.1m)
3) TJ Ford (Value = 5.3, Salary = $8.0m)
4) Jarrett Jack (Value = 4.9, Salary = $2.0m) - Count, in between your & Tbird's estimates
5) Marquis Daniels (Value = 4.0, Salary = $6.9m)
6) Jeff Foster (Value = 2.5, Salary = $6.2m)
7) Brandon Rush (Value = 2.2, Salary = $1.7m)
8) Mike Dunleavy (Value = 2.0, Salary = $9.0m)
9) Rasho Nesterovic (Value = 1.5, Salary = $8.4m)
10) Roy Hibbert (Value = 1.2, Salary = $1.5m)
11) Travis Diener (Value = 1.2, Salary = $1.6m)
12) Josh McRoberts (Value = 0.4, Salary = $0.7m)
13) Stephen Graham (Value = 0.4, Salary = $0.8m)
14) Maceo Baston (Value = 0.2, Salary = $2.0m)

* Granger comparisons (Avoidingtheclowns) –
Andre Iguodala (Value = 9.5, Salary = $11.3m)
Luol Deng (Value = 5.1, Salary = $9.4m … but note that his production has fallen off the past two years)

count55
05-21-2009, 08:59 PM
Does games played/missed factor into this?

Trader Joe
05-21-2009, 09:02 PM
Do we really think Danny Granger is overpaid? I think he would probably be getting a max deal this summer if we hadn't locked him up.

DrFife
05-21-2009, 09:06 PM
Does games played/missed factor into this?

Yep: "Note, too, that injuries (in terms of number of games played) affect a player’s value."

count55
05-21-2009, 09:07 PM
Do we really think Danny Granger is overpaid? I think he would probably be getting a max deal this summer if we hadn't locked him up.

Gotta be careful. Take a look a LeBron's value: 15.5

Would you bat an eye at paying $20? $25?

I wouldn't.

My suspicion is that if we saw a distribution graph (hint-hint), the majority of players would skew overpaid.

Or, more accurately, the majority of veteran starter/rotation players would skew overpaid. The majority of the producers on rookie contracts would skew underpaid.

DrFife
05-21-2009, 09:10 PM
Do we really think Danny Granger is overpaid? I think he would probably be getting a max deal this summer if we hadn't locked him up.

"Danny Granger* (Value = 8.9, ['08-'09] Salary = $2.3m, ’09-’10 Salary = $9.9m) … so he does need to get better!"

This year, we got a really good deal. If he performs next year at the exact same relative level, however, and misses as many games, then yes, my argument is that he will have been ("slightly," as in 10% slightly, not $1 million slightly) overpaid.

owl
05-21-2009, 10:06 PM
Marcin Gortat would a very nice bigman to pick and be a back up to Hibbert.
He might even be affordable.

OakMoses
05-22-2009, 11:37 AM
* Granger comparisons (Avoidingtheclowns) –
Andre Iguodala (Value = 9.5, Salary = $11.3m)
Luol Deng (Value = 5.1, Salary = $9.4m … but note that his production has fallen off the past two years)

What factors give Iguodala more value than Granger?

Also, what do the values for Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Joe Johnson look like? I consider them Granger comparisons.

count55
05-22-2009, 12:09 PM
What factors give Iguodala more value than Granger?

Also, what do the values for Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Joe Johnson look like? I consider them Granger comparisons.

I'm guessing the following:

More Rebound and Assists

82 games for Iggy vs. 67 for Danny

If I were to make a guess, I'd say the games played is the big factor.


(Hypothesis: A missed game earns $0, so Danny earned $0 for 19% of the season. It's probably an oversimplification, but if Danny had played 82, he may have had a value of $10mm or more.)

avoidingtheclowns
05-22-2009, 12:14 PM
I'm guessing the following:

More Rebound and Assists

82 games for Iggy vs. 67 for Danny

If I were to make a guess, I'd say the games played is the big factor.


(Hypothesis: A missed game earns $0, so Danny earned $0 for 19% of the season. It's probably an oversimplification, but if Danny had played 82, he may have had a value of $10mm or more.)

The health angle is what I was assuming. Even considering the 15 games Danny missed, it's only a $600k gap between the two.

DrFife
05-22-2009, 12:32 PM
The health angle is what I was assuming. Even considering the 15 games Danny missed, it's only a $600k gap between the two.

Yes, I did a quick "what if" and found that his missed games account for all of the $600k gap. (Iggy played in all 82 games.)

I'd still rather have Danny, though! :o

DrFife
05-22-2009, 12:41 PM
Also, what do the values for Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Joe Johnson look like? I consider them Granger comparisons.

Rashard (Value = 6.83, Salary = $17.2m ... his productivity has dropped off somewhat the past couple years, but man, that contract was outrageous from the moment he signed)

Turk (Value = 5.7, Salary = $6.9m)
JJ (Value = 8.7, Salary = $14.2m)

Bottom line: All-World is worth almost double that of "merely" All-Star....

Los Angeles
05-22-2009, 01:00 PM
Very interesting system. I think it is useful to a degree, but it comes up with some puzzling results. Kevin Garnett being the obvious one. KG played a lot of games and his value to the celtics is unquestioned. I don't understand his severe handicap in this system. He brought the Celtics a lot of wins and got his stats before going down.

OakMoses
05-22-2009, 01:44 PM
Very interesting system. I think it is useful to a degree, but it comes up with some puzzling results. Kevin Garnett being the obvious one. KG played a lot of games and his value to the celtics is unquestioned. I don't understand his severe handicap in this system. He brought the Celtics a lot of wins and got his stats before going down.

I'm guessing that this statistical model, like most, cannot account for a player's impact on defense.