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View Full Version : Next year and the Rookies



Speed
03-19-2009, 10:36 AM
Sure there are games left to play and next season is a long ways away, but with the last four losses I pretty much feel the need to look forward.

Simple question. What do you think Roy, B Rush, and McBob will average next year in Mins, points, rebs and any other stat you want to put in?

I say-

Roy 25 minutes, 12 Points, 4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 4.9 fouls.

B Rush 29 minutes 9 Points, 3 Rebounds, and 1 assist and 39% from 3 pt land.

McBob (if here) 50 games 15 minutes 3 points, 3 rebounds.

I think Roy could even have more of a scoring impact, if given the burn. I would be really happy with that progression for him.

B Rush I havae to say that I expected more when he was drafted, but that 9 points next year maybe too optimistic. I think with BRush it's almost all above the shoulders.

McBob is a wild card. If he doesn't improve significantly, Obie won't play him. I think it's that simple.

What do you think?

count55
03-19-2009, 10:54 AM
I think Roy's playing time next year will be entirely dictated by fouls and conditioning. That being said, I think mid-20's is probably about right, with the capability of scoring in the mid-teens. I think he could be very important to our half court.

Brandon needs to get a consistent shot. If he can just get to 43-45% from the floor, he could be a 10+ ppg scorer. He can play the game, but his offense is nowhere near acceptable, and if we're in the same place this time next year at that end, then I don't see him getting a fourth year. Daniels will be gone, and Dunleavy won't be back until late, if at all. Should be able to get as many minutes as he can handle.

McBob will probably be back just on economics, but it will be a squeeze for him next year, as well. Rasho and Baston will be gone, but Hibbert should get more minutes, while Murph & Foster will likely still get a lot. His chances will depend greatly on who we draft. If we go big (PF), then he'll be at the end of the bench again. If we go small (PG, Wing), then he'll have an opportunity.

Infinite MAN_force
03-19-2009, 11:44 AM
McBob will probably be back just on economics, but it will be a squeeze for him next year, as well. Rasho and Baston will be gone, but Hibbert should get more minutes, while Murph & Foster will likely still get a lot. His chances will depend greatly on who we draft. If we go big (PF), then he'll be at the end of the bench again. If we go small (PG, Wing), then he'll have an opportunity.

Another reason I am more interested in going small. People say draft an enforcer and I say well There might be one already on the roster. The three things I am most comfortable with when it comes to Mcbob is defense, rebounding, and shot blocking. Most of the questions hinge on his offensive game, and he has shown potential with the jumpshot.

Just last night I saw Mcbob go up against Oden and grab away a tough rebound. Whoever called the guy soft was way off base. I am hoping to see Josh become Troy's primary backup next year, and in all honesty, this should start right now. Rasho is playing terrible. Its time to slide Foster over to backup center and give Mcbob some time now that the playoffs are looking like a lost cause.

Speed
03-19-2009, 11:58 AM
Infinite, I would guess that you could make an argument to draft a replacement for Jack, Marquis, and Rasho. I would also guess you just drafted Marquis and Rashos "replacements" last year. So it wouldn't shock me if they pick up a backcourt guy and try to rely on McBob for some minutes. It be nice if before draft time they knew that McBob was under a cheap contract and really progressing in his game.

Count, If we are in the same boat with B Rush next year, I completely agree with you.

count55
03-19-2009, 12:01 PM
I think the Pacers will probably re-sign McBob, but I don't believe they consider him as a part of their core. I think it would be foolish for McBob to be a major consideration when making their draft pick. In other words, they should not pass up a big guy, if he's the best player available, simply because they have McBob. There is still no evidence that he'll ever be much more than a deep bench player.

Jonathan
03-19-2009, 03:11 PM
Speed, I too am looking forward to next year but we need to see where we pick in this year's draft.

We can play what if all day long

If we draft Thabeet does Hibbert lose minutes or not to him.

If we land the number one pick do we even need to sign McBob?

If we draft Evans/Warren/Jennings will B Rush get more minutes b/c Jack and Q6 are gone?

I believe Rush is a very good player but he was picked 11 th. It was wrong to expect the kid to come in and make an instant impact. I feel his game would drastically improve if we had a quality low post player.

2minutes twowa
03-19-2009, 05:37 PM
Are they going to have a draft party at Conseco like they did last year? That was a blast! I would love to go again this year.

BlueNGold
03-19-2009, 06:45 PM
I think next year we will see a lot of Hibbert. I hope he comes back a little smarter and physically stronger. I have no feel for where Rush is going to be. He will still be a Pacer though. McRoberts will ride the pine next year too or be traded. Unless we are really short bigs, JOb will not play him. McRoberts is lucky that Baston and probably Rasho are history. Maybe that will get him some time. But Murph will always be JOb's favorite PF.

Spirit
03-20-2009, 02:11 AM
Rush will be our sixth man next year provided that Jack isn't resigned. Our starting lineup will look like this

TJ
Dunleavy
Granger
Murphy
Hibbert

main bench players

Rush
draft pick
Foster

If McRoberts is signed and we don't draft a big man, you can add him to the list as well.

Roaming Gnome
03-20-2009, 03:36 AM
Are they going to have a draft party at Conseco like they did last year? That was a blast! I would love to go again this year.

The word is yes, they'll have a draft party again this year...

count55
03-20-2009, 05:43 AM
Rush will be our sixth man next year provided that Jack isn't resigned. Our starting lineup will look like this

TJ
Dunleavy
Granger
Murphy
Hibbert

main bench players

Rush
draft pick
Foster

If McRoberts is signed and we don't draft a big man, you can add him to the list as well.

Dunleavy is not going to play next year...at least not in the first half of the season.

Jack will be the only guy they attempt to re-sign, and I'd say it's probably about a 75% chance that he'll be back.

Tom White
03-20-2009, 08:33 AM
Dunleavy is not going to play next year...at least not in the first half of the season.

Wow. Where did that come from? I must have missed something (not an unusual thing, on my part).


Jack will be the only guy they attempt to re-sign, and I'd say it's probably about a 75% chance that he'll be back.

I would say you are correct about Jack. He has been working really hard in making his case.

count55
03-20-2009, 08:49 AM
Wow. Where did that come from? I must have missed something (not an unusual thing, on my part).

Well, there's nothing absolutely definitive beyond "lengthy", but Mark Boyle said best case 12 months, worst case 18. Dunleavy's father was more upbeat, saying that the surgery was very successful, and they didn't have to do as much (or any, I can't recall) cutting on the patellar tendon. He was saying that he'll be back faster, and have a 100% recovery, but there has been absolutely nothing (beyond the "lengthy" comment) that has come out of either the Pacers or Junior himself that would lead me to believe he'll be anywhere near ready at the start of next season.

Given the unprecedented nature of the injury/condition (for a basketball player), the severity of it, and our what-Indian-burial-ground-did-we-violate? style of bad luck with such things, I am not expecting him to be available until the All-Star break at the absolute earliest.

It also seems to me that the Pacers are assuming they'll start the season without him, as well.

This could all be wrong, and he could be ready for training camp, but I doubt you'll find many that would much different understanding/expectation than I have.

PacerGuy
03-20-2009, 08:51 AM
I think the minutes of t/y's rooks depends a lot on any off-season moves we may make. IMO, I could see the Pacers trying to move Daniels &/or Ford to get multiple players in return, a move that could help fill out the roster a bit w/o adding payroll.
Daniels contract still has a lot of value to '10 teams, & we do not have to act on it till post-draft, giving us many options. Ford is a nice player, but IMO I think TPTB would rather get a few assets for him to strengthen other positions - kinda like how we did w/ trading w/ Portland & Toronto last year - & then resign Jack. These moves could dictate to a point out direction in the draft.
That said....
-I see Roy getting 20-24 min/gm, 12+ pts, 5+ reb.
-I see Brandon returning strong n/y, getting 22-26 min/gm, 12-14 pts/gm.
-I see McBob returning getting 5-10 min/gm, 4pts, 4reb's

d_c
03-20-2009, 12:09 PM
Daniels contract still has a lot of value to '10 teams, & we do not have to act on it till post-draft, giving us many options. Ford is a nice player, but IMO I think TPTB would rather get a few assets for him to strengthen other positions - kinda like how we did w/ trading w/ Portland & Toronto last year - & then resign Jack. These moves could dictate to a point out direction in the draft.


The Pacers aren't going to pick up Daniels' option just so they can trade him and take on another contract that runs at least another 2 seasons.

pacergod2
03-20-2009, 05:42 PM
I think its impossible to predict this sort of thing for these guys because our team will have another big year of influx in terms of new faces. Its the way it goes when you are completely retooling the roster.

I would have to guess assuming the following: Jack is back, Daniels Rasho and Maceo are gone, Tinsley is on our roster, and Deiner doesnt opt out. Also, that Dun is out indefinitely. TJ, Foster, and Murphy don't get traded.


Rush, with the injury to Dunleavy HAS to play more. But I see TJ and Jack being our backcourt for roughly 30-35 mpg. That leaves about 20 minutes for Rush and about 10-15 minutes for Deiner. In 20 mpg, I see Rush coming in and being a great defender. He needs to be more aggressive offensively. If he does this I could see him being about 10 ppg, but if he lacks confidence he will average about 6 per game. He is a 3 rpg and 2 apg at 20 min.

Hibbert will be force fed more minutes than Rush will. He will get taught all summer not to foul. If that sinks in he will be a 30 mpg guy. If not, he will struggle to break 20 mpg. At 30 mpg he will be 15 points and 7 reb and 2 blocks. At 20 mpg he will be a 12 ppg and 5 rpg and still about 1.5+ bpg.

McRoberts obviously is not fitting in with coach OBrien for some reason. It might be the way he practices or just not understanding the offense. I don't know. But I hope he is here. I hope we sign him to a three year deal that keeps him a Pacer. I just think with JOB here, he will average about 10 mpg at most. And I will reiterate PacerGuy's 4 ppg, 4 rpg prediction. I wish I knew more.

PacerGuy
03-20-2009, 10:59 PM
The Pacers aren't going to pick up Daniels' option just so they can trade him and take on another contract that runs at least another 2 seasons.
I said contracts, and nowhere did I mention the length of any returning contracts.
I also never stated that Daniels would not be in a "package deal", something that is entirely possible, esp given that we can make the move post-draft.
Daniels is still an asset, & given that Dun may not be back (till late if then), his contract is something we must explore using to aquire assets.

pacergod2
03-21-2009, 09:07 AM
And in acquiring those assets, we would be having to take on the salaries to match Daniels in a trade, if we don't opt out. The amount of his salary would leave us dancing on the wrong side of the Luxury Tax line.

pacergod2
03-21-2009, 09:09 AM
Loved seeing Rush get 30+ minutes last night. Hit a couple of big threes. I like it.

1984
03-21-2009, 09:43 AM
[Brandon Rush]
<O:p</O:p
Rush is a very dynamic player with a lot to offer. Rush was originally thought to be very mature NBA ready player who could make an immediate impact on the Pacers. However, I would beg to differ. Rush is very raw and needs to refine his skills in order to be a vital contributor on the Pacers’ squad.

[1] Rush needs to improve his shooting ability (currently 35-37%). Brandon is like a fine restaurant without a waiter. He has a lot to offer but can’t serve it. When the ball is passed to Rush he is rarely set for the shot causing Brandon to have to pass up open looks or shoot off balance. Setting for the shot helps a player to shoot efficiently and quickly, and more importantly keeps the defense guessing (Is he going to shoot? Is he going to pass? Is he going to drive?).

[2] Free throws, free throws, free throws. Rush needs to improve his free throw percentage (currently 67%). Rush has the athleticism and length to draw a lot of shooting fouls. By improving his free throw percentage Rush would be a efficient player.

Rush could improve a lot of other things. However, by securing these fundamentals I feel Brandon could become a very effective 6<SUP>th</SUP> man on the Pacers’ squad.

pacergod2
03-21-2009, 11:05 AM
Nice post. There are alot of things you point out that players develop over time. I would add that I think he needs to learn how to move away from the ball more effectively. He is also reluctant to take the ball hard to the hole at times. I think Rush can be an excellent player for us. I would contend that he is a perfect complement to Granger on the wing. Rush needs to hone his skills and build his confidence. IMO, he should be watching tape of older players like Joe Dumars and Derrick McKey. And of course, study current players like Kobe Bryant and Ray Allen, who are perfectionists and who he will be guarding. I really like this kid alot. I like his game. He's just some silver that needs polishing right now. And when getting 30 minutes a game to work those kinks out, it will only help him improve his game and confidence.

HC
03-21-2009, 11:29 AM
I agree it is time to let the young guys play, but given O'Briens recent take on this it seems unlikely.

idioteque
03-21-2009, 11:34 AM
I agree it is time to let the young guys play, but given O'Briens recent take on this it seems unlikely.

Really? I have no problem given our rookies valid rotational minutes only their first year and that is what we have been doing. I could understand this sentiment if they were getting 5 minutes or so only a game but our rookies have been playing a big role recently.

HC
03-21-2009, 11:37 AM
Really? I have no problem given our rookies valid rotational minutes only their first year and that is what we have been doing. I could understand this sentiment if they were getting 5 minutes or so only a game but our rookies have been playing a big role recently.

The rookies have been getting some decent minutes, but given the situation they should get a few more. Of course Hibberts is offset a little bit by his foul troubles. I am not only thinking rookies here though. There are several guys buried on the bench that should get a chance to show what they are capable of. It is pretty much garbage time now imo.

D-BONE
03-21-2009, 11:48 AM
The rookies have been getting some decent minutes, but given the situation they should get a few more. Of course Hibberts is offset a little bit by his foul troubles. I am not only thinking rookies here though. There are several guys buried on the bench that should get a chance to show what they are capable of. It is pretty much garbage time now imo.

No doubt. I hope Deiner, McBob, Rush, Roy, Graham (even though he sometimes irks me) see a good deal of court time from here on out. I see no reason why Granger needs to be playing 41 minutes (as in vs. Dallas) at this point if he's still icing his knee. It was really the bench and the rookies that gave us the energy boost in the second half I though. Maceo could get some run too, although I don't need any Rasho, thanks.

HC
03-21-2009, 11:52 AM
No doubt. I hope Deiner, McBob, Rush, Roy, Graham (even though he sometimes irks me) see a good deal of court time from here on out. I see no reason why Granger needs to be playing 41 minutes (as in vs. Dallas) at this point if he's still icing his knee. It was really the bench and the rookies that gave us the energy boost in the second half I though. Maceo could get some run too, although I don't need any Rasho, thanks.

Don't hold your breath, read this link. Since you feel the same as me I am assuming it will disappoint you as much as it has me.

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/58017/20090320/obrien_young_pacers_must_earn_time/

via indystar

PacerGuy
03-21-2009, 07:22 PM
And in acquiring those assets, we would be having to take on the salaries to match Daniels in a trade, if we don't opt out. The amount of his salary would leave us dancing on the wrong side of the Luxury Tax line.

3 words:
Non - Guarenteed - Contracts (Yes, "Non" is a word! :-p )
I get this is doubted by most, but w/ Dun out, I feel we will have to be creative, & Daniels has big value as a '10 expiring, & a player who can be acted on post-draft.
Doubt me, I care less, but I will bookmark this for the off-season. I think Dun's injury changes everything about our off-season approach.