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View Full Version : Hibbert's "PER"



Kid Minneapolis
03-13-2009, 04:10 PM
I don't take a *ton* of stock in these "systems", but it is mildly interesting that Hibbert ranks 8th amongst rookies in Hollinger's "PER" system:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&pos=rookies&seasonType=2&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fhollinger%2fstatistics%3fsort%3dper%26pos%3droo kies%26seasonType%3d2

He's 8th, and I might add, above Rose, Mayo, Westbrook, Gordon --- and two other dudes *ahem*: Rush and Bayless.

d_c
03-13-2009, 04:34 PM
FWIW, Ike Diogu's PER during his rookie year was through the roof. John Hollinger was talking about him like he was the next coming. Not saying Hibbert is destined to be the next Ike, but those kinds of stats don't mean much in limited minutes.

Naptown_Seth
03-13-2009, 04:37 PM
There is truth to the PER, but it always requires a bit of qualifying.

But then don't all stats. 40 points per game sounds great without the 20 for 100 on shooting per night.

Roy's had a good PER most of the year. Part of it is his points in limited minutes. However he is the very reason his minutes are often limited due to fouls.

Infinite MAN_force
03-13-2009, 05:00 PM
One thing Iv'e noticed about PER, is that it favors bigmen. Just look at that top 10. I think this may be due to FG%, which is usually higher for post players.

spazzxb
03-13-2009, 05:03 PM
FWIW, Ike Diogu's PER during his rookie year was through the roof. John Hollinger was talking about him like he was the next coming. Not saying Hibbert is destined to be the next Ike, but those kinds of stats don't mean much in limited minutes.

Diogo is incapable of passing out of a double team. Once teams realized this he became ineffective. Roy has no such Achilles heal.

El Pacero
03-13-2009, 05:39 PM
Roy told Smooth in his 3rd video that he leads the league in fouls per minute. ha

JayRedd
03-13-2009, 07:48 PM
Roy has no such Achilles heal.

Other than that whole "inability to quickly move his Achilles heel" thing.

count55
03-13-2009, 07:53 PM
Other than that whole "inability to quickly move his Achilles heel" thing.

And, of course, an arrow to the heel is the only way to kill him.

Anthem
03-13-2009, 09:58 PM
I like Rush. I do.

But a Speights / Hibbert frontcourt sure would have been nice.

Kid Minneapolis
03-13-2009, 10:17 PM
Well, my thoughts on this topic...

1) A big point I tried to make in the original post is that there's been so much fire about who we shoulda taken, Rush or Bayless, that lost in all that is the possible reality that our #17 pick might have been the real story.

2) Just a quick glance at the "categories" that PER judges upon immediately shows to me that they are almost all offensive categories, and thus will not truly measure the impact that a defensive excelling player like Rush will have on a team. Hibbert's offensive production has been impressive for where he was selected, and especially for a man of his size, and certainly you can make a case that he's been a better and more consistent offensive contributor than Rush, but I don't know if I can say the same regarding defensive impact between the two players.

Rush's impact on the defensive end doesn't seem to be reflected in this "ranking", and so, to me it's just a mildly interesting ranking, because it seems to be lacking in evaluating overall contribution. BUT... it does seem to show a relative comparison between players offensively, and would might indicate that Hibbert is holding his own, even against some of the more highly touted Rookie of the Year candidates.

BKK
03-14-2009, 09:34 AM
all I know is Big Roy pulled 7 rebounds last night none of them defensive (Troy took all of them :-p) and there's not even a post game thread to mention it...

so I put it here and say Bravo Roy! keep up the good work!

Naptown_Seth
03-14-2009, 10:14 AM
Diogo is incapable of passing out of a double team. Once teams realized this he became ineffective. Roy has no such Achilles heal.
And this also backs the PER to be honest. What it says is this - when people hadn't figured him out he WAS good. Then they did and his PER suffered.

This applies to minutes played as well. You have a good PER. Okay, I'll play you more. If it keeps up it proves it was real, if it falls way off then it was smoke and mirrors.

The stat itself isn't "wrong", but as I always say all stats must be taken with a grain of salt. That's NOT THE SAME as totally discarding them as lies and stupidity. ;)


BKK - yeah, he's definitely showing nice signs and continues to impress me as having that Smits promise. Different style of game of course, but meaning that while raw he does have a couple of things you are going to rely on him to do as your true big/center. Plus you expect the fouls to drop.

Smits - killer shot
Roy - post game, but not enough to match Rik's shot

Smits - meh rebounding, meh defense
Roy - better boards and defense

So it's a trade off of offense for defense but ultimately I can see Roy having an OVERALL similar impact on most games. He's not making the big duck under Rollins shot probably, but you won't pull your hair out on his defense the rest of the game either.

He's way ahead of what I thought he could be in the NBA. I really liked him and loved that he went back for year 4, but after seeing his slowness I had big doubts. Turns out his game works just fine at that slower speed thanks to fundamentals and desire to learn.

Naptown_Seth
03-14-2009, 10:21 AM
I like Rush. I do.

But a Speights / Hibbert frontcourt sure would have been nice.
How about a Speights, Chalmers, Weaver situation.

I love Rush, but I also said in the recruit thread last year that someone was going to get a draft slot bargain on both those guys as well as Courtney Lee. It makes me puke.

Weaver is a better defender than Rush, he's a monster. You could've traded that Rush slot for 2 slots later on, say 25th and 35th range. Argh.


It reminds me of when the Colts got Edge. Good pick, but had they stepped into that Saints deal instead they could have had several picks and still got Edge. Saints wanted Ricky, Skins wanted Bailey. Edge still could have been on the board.

I'm greedy, but being greedy pays off sometimes.

I seriously would have loved to put together a roster of nothing but draft picks this year. Chalmers, Rush, Weaver, Speights, Hibbert. That's a really good defensive team that only needs one more shooter to top it off (ie, Granger).

Anthem
03-14-2009, 10:44 AM
I really liked him and loved that he went back for year 4, but after seeing his slowness I had big doubts. Turns out his game works just fine at that slower speed thanks to fundamentals and desire to learn.
And honestly, he's not nearly as slow as I expected. He moves well at this weight... if he'd been in this kind of shape in college he'd have been a monster.

El Pacero
03-14-2009, 12:43 PM
Smits - meh rebounding, meh defense
Roy - better boards and defense


I agree with all of this, but boy did JOB give Hibbert a hard time regarding defense last night. "Roy (Hibbert) struggled at the defensive end tonight, guarding pick-and-rolls. The game is played at both ends of the court, and you need to have a balanced attack offensively and defensively if you’re going to win in this league.”

kellogg
03-14-2009, 02:14 PM
Whatever his place in the NBA ends up being, no one can argue that it's been thoroughly refreshing to see a team on the court that plays hard and hasn't made the wrong headlines for off the court issues. For that reason alone I like Roy.

BlueNGold
03-18-2009, 08:32 PM
Roy is getting better. I now have no doubt he is going to be a good starting C. 5 out of 8 games in double figures. Each month he has improved. When he gets stronger and is able to maintain his balance, he will be a much, much better player. If he really works in the weight room, he could become a monster. He has the skills unlike a lot of big stiffs out there...

Kemo
03-18-2009, 08:50 PM
Roy is getting better. I now have no doubt he is going to be a good starting C. 5 out of 8 games in double figures. Each month he has improved. When he gets stronger and is able to maintain his balance, he will be a much, much better player. If he really works in the weight room, he could become a monster. He has the skills unlike a lot of big stiffs out there...


Agree 100%

Hibbert has been a joy watching as he gets more and more attuned to the "NBA" style of play ..

I see a Center that will avg. 14-16 pts per game his sophomore season..

Other than working on his body positioning , his hands , and ultimately his fouls .. He really don't have anything that he CAN'T improve on if he continues to show his willingness to learn and determination as he has been..

I agree he needs , not to gain weight so much, but to gain some more upper body muscle ..

I would like to see Hibby work on his rebounds, which goes hand in hand with anticipation and floor positioning..

Hopefully we will see alot more plays drawn up for him next season .
I think he could be unstoppable around the rim ,if he works on the above things ..
Like I said for a rookie Center , especially a #17 pick , he has exceeded all my expectations as a rookie..

I'd like to see the ball constantly being fed to him in the post .. Which hopefully comes once his teammates gain more trust in him to convert..

I am more impressed with Roy than I am with Rush this year .. But I am shocked Rush has been as good defensively as he has been ..

Hopefully next season , both our rooks will have breakout seasons...

BlueNGold
03-18-2009, 08:58 PM
Granger merely showed promise his rookie season. Many people thought his forte' would be defense. I think I even did. But I also saw the potential for him to be an offensive force...although I did not expect that to be beyond the arc so much.

Hibbert is showing more promise than Rush. I actually think Hibbert needs both more lower body and upper body strength. I don't think quickness is his problem in the NBA...so improvements are likely. In a couple years, he will be much stronger and he will become difficult to stop on offense. ...but the Pacers need to play a slower brand of basketball and use ball movement rather than player movement to maximize his talents.

BRushWithDeath
03-19-2009, 12:12 AM
Granger merely showed promise his rookie season. Many people thought his forte' would be defense. I think I even did.


He still could be a great defender. He just doesn't try on that end anymore. It's a shame. I love the scoring as much as the next guy but it's too bad he's just completely neglected any defensive effort on account of him scoring more. I'd rather he score 20 a game and give some defensive effort than score 26 and give up on the other end.