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count55
03-12-2009, 10:04 AM
Mike Wells
Indianapolis Star

http://blogs.indystar.com/pacersinsider/


Mike Dunleavy had successful surgery last week in Colorado. His return is anybody's guess.

Marquis Daniels is the player most impacted by Dunleavy's knee situation.

The Pacers have $7.4 million team option on Daniels. It would be surprising if the team didn't decide to pick it up considering nobody knows when Dunleavy will be back and if he'll be the same player when he returns.

Daniels, Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack currently get the majority of the minutes at the wing position. Danny Granger will add to the depth when he returns from his foot injury either Friday at Atlanta or Sunday at Toronto.

Daniels has earned the $7.4 million option, which the Pacers have until June 30 to decide if they want to pick up.

Like Troy Murphy, Daniels isn't flashy. His jump shot is suspect, but he still finds a way to put points on the board. Coach Jim O'Brien always raves about Daniels' ability to get deflections, a stat that isn't kept by the NBA.

O'Brien isn't tipping his hand on who he plans to sit when Granger returns - Daniels or Jack.

Daniels isn't the type of player that will complain about his role. The statistics are relatively even between Jack and Daniels.

Daniels averages 15.9 points as a starter, while Jack is at 15.6. They're about the same as reserves, too.

I think Daniels makes them a better defensive team and gives them a slasher on the court to compliment Granger and Murphy's outside shooting.

There's really no way to argue against the basketball merits of his case...they are true.

However, I'm wondering how someone can get paid to cover a team, yet be so ignorant of the cap/tax implications of such a move. This is particularly astounding given the front-and-center nature of the Pacers' financial situation these days.

Something really extraordinary will have to happen for the Pacers to be able to pick up Daniels' option (or re-sign him at all) while still staying below the tax threshold.

I consider the possibility of the Pacers exceeding the tax threshold about as likely as them giving Tinsley an extension.

blanket
03-12-2009, 11:16 AM
The Pacers have $7.4 million team option on Daniels. It would be surprising if the team didn't decide to pick it up considering nobody knows when Dunleavy will be back and if he'll be the same player when he returns.


I think Wells is in for a surprise.

duke dynamite
03-12-2009, 11:19 AM
Picking up Daniels' option seems like the most intelligent move.

Look at it this way:

SCENARIO 1

1. Renew Q6
2. Start him, he plays well.
3. Dun possibly comes back, plays well.
4. Oh wow, look...the trade deadline.
5. Mike and Rush are our SG options. Sometimes Jack.
6. We just saved a bunch of money on our car insurance.

SCENARIO 2

1. Renew Q6
2. Start him, he plays well.
3. Rush found his shot, playing well off the bench.
4. Holy crap, Mike hasn't come back/plays with same intensity of '07-'08
5. Our options become Q6 or Rush

count55
03-12-2009, 11:40 AM
Picking up Daniels' option seems like the most intelligent move.

Look at it this way:

SCENARIO 1

1. Renew Q6
2. Start him, he plays well.
3. Dun possibly comes back, plays well.
4. Oh wow, look...the trade deadline.
5. Mike and Rush are our SG options. Sometimes Jack.
6. We just saved a bunch of money on our car insurance.

SCENARIO 2

1. Renew Q6
2. Start him, he plays well.
3. Rush found his shot, playing well off the bench.
4. Holy crap, Mike hasn't come back/plays with same intensity of '07-'08
5. Our options become Q6 or Rush

A. The Pacers/Simons will not put themselves in a position to pay the luxury tax.

B. It will be nearly impossible for the Pacers to field 14 or 15 players and stay under the tax threshold if they pick of Daniels option.

C. Therefore, it will be nearly impossible for the Pacers to pick up Daniels option.

(Add'l result - There is virtually no realistic scenario right now where the Pacers will have both Daniels and Jack next season.)

duke dynamite
03-12-2009, 11:44 AM
A. The Pacers/Simons will not put themselves in a position to pay the luxury tax.

B. It will be nearly impossible for the Pacers to field 14 or 15 players and stay under the tax threshold if they pick of Daniels option.

C. Therefore, it will be nearly impossible for the Pacers to pick up Daniels option.

(Add'l result - There is virtually no realistic scenario right now where the Pacers will have both Daniels and Jack next season.)
I was kind of being silly, anyway.

CableKC
03-12-2009, 12:16 PM
It may sound strange, but the only way that I can see the Pacers picking up Marquis Team Option is with the FULL intention of trading him before the 2009-2010 Trade Deadline. Picking up his Team Option would allow them to fill a likely need ( specifically replace the production lost by Dunleavy IF he doesn't fully recover by the start of the 2009-2010 season ) and to simply use him as a Valuable Trading Asset before the 2009-2010 Trade Deadline.

I know it's far-fetched....but they can use him as an 2009-2010 Expiring Contract and trade him for a Player ( that would likely fit a percieved positional need ) with a smaller 2009-2010 Salary ( but with a longer 2-3 year Contract ) while getting back something in return ( $$$ and future Considerations such as Draft picks ) before the 2009-2010 Trade Deadline.

The problem is that this carries a HUGE risk because it assumes that a Team would give up the Assets/Players that TPTB are looking for while carrying the risk that there is a possiblity that Marquis won't be traded at all in the first place....therefore putting us over the Luxury Tax.

BTW.....before you jump all over me for suggesting such a move....I'm not saying that TPTB should do this....I'm suggesting that this is the only scenario that I can come up with where Marquis' Team Option is picked up.....to basically use him as a Trading Asset before the 2009-2010 Trade Deadline.

able
03-12-2009, 01:03 PM
IF the option is picked up, then Dun is heading for perm injury release/relief. so his salary (already paid by insurance atm) will not count against the cap.

Naptown_Seth
03-12-2009, 01:13 PM
There's really no way to argue against the basketball merits of his case...they are true.

However, I'm wondering how someone can get paid to cover a team, yet be so ignorant of the cap/tax implications of such a move. This is particularly astounding given the front-and-center nature of the Pacers' financial situation these days.

Something really extraordinary will have to happen for the Pacers to be able to pick up Daniels' option (or re-sign him at all) while still staying below the tax threshold.

I consider the possibility of the Pacers exceeding the tax threshold about as likely as them giving Tinsley an extension.
I agree, but perhaps the attitude should be "make moves that allow you to keep Marquis". All the Troy fans (where were you 2 years ago) will hate me beating the same drum, but seriously, couldn't you trade high on him right now, reduce some payroll perhaps by letting the other team meet the +25% salary portion of the deal and make room for Quis?

Say you've got a rather poor big at 8m. Trade him to Indy for Troy at 10m. There's 2m space created right there. If Troy's stats are slightly inflated (certainly these are the most 3PA/3PM of his career) this is the time to find someone who sees value in his deal. They have a guy that rebounds less per game with zilch from 3, which means they see Troy as a big upgrade - "Hey, he rebounds AND shoots".

Meanwhile we leave the 3 ball to guys like Granger, TJ, Jack, Dun and hopefully Rush and get better defensively with the PF coming back for Troy and the ability to retain Quis.


At least that's how I'd be approaching the offseason. I'd also pitch in a 2nd rounder to trade up to the late first if they'd go for it, depends on the quality of the big coming back.

Naptown_Seth
03-12-2009, 01:17 PM
Also Count there are CASH CONSIDERATIONS that a team could provide in a deal to offset the Pacers going over the lux tax. I got it from the best authority the other day that this was exactly the case in the Bayless deal (ie, deal sweetened by money).

Justin Tyme
03-12-2009, 01:41 PM
It may sound strange, but the only way that I can see the Pacers picking up Marquis Team Option is with the FULL intention of trading him before the 2009-2010 Trade Deadline. Picking up his Team Option would allow them to fill a likely need ( specifically replace the production lost by Dunleavy IF he doesn't fully recover by the start of the 2009-2010 season ) and to simply use him as a Valuable Trading Asset before the 2009-2010 Trade Deadline.


The problem with your scenario is that when trading Daniels you have to take back a contract or 2 which then puts the Pacers over the LT. Even if you trade Daniels for a expiring player at PF, it would put the Pacers over the LT again. No reason to pick up the team option unless a team under the cap trades for him and gives a pick too. I don't see that happening either. So IOW, it's fruitless and a waste to pick up Daniels' team option and go into LT land. The Simons aren't about to allow that to happen.

Hicks
03-12-2009, 01:59 PM
IF the option is picked up, then Dun is heading for perm injury release/relief. so his salary (already paid by insurance atm) will not count against the cap.

In all honesty, how many here would be upset if this is what happens?

Justin Tyme
03-12-2009, 02:24 PM
In all honesty, how many here would be upset if this is what happens?

Not I. I just wish it would come off the cap so as to allow the Pacers some flexibility.

Justin Tyme
03-12-2009, 02:27 PM
so his salary (already paid by insurance atm) will not count against the cap.

I thought the Pacers got the salary relief, but Dun's salary would still count against the cap.

maragin
03-12-2009, 02:33 PM
In all honesty, how many here would be upset if this is what happens?

Would I be upset if Dunleavy was permanently injured? Yeah I'd be upset, and disappointed in anyone that took joy from it.

Anthem
03-12-2009, 02:42 PM
In all honesty, how many here would be upset if this is what happens?
Last year I'd have been ok with it. This year, with the bizarre financial situation the team and the league are in, I'd be thrilled. Not at his injury... I'd never wish that on anybody and Dun is a good guy. But it sure would help the team. There will be plenty of guys available at the MLE that I'd trade Dun for if given the option.

count55
03-12-2009, 02:57 PM
I was kind of being silly, anyway.

Aren't we all?


IF the option is picked up, then Dun is heading for perm injury release/relief. so his salary (already paid by insurance atm) will not count against the cap.

This is why I said something "extraordinary." When the reports came out last week, I began doing the math on a medical retirement. I told a friend of mine that I wished one of two things would happen:

1. Dunleavy would be able to return and perform at last year's level at some point.

or

2. The Pacers & Dunleavy would know for sure that it was career ending by June, so that they could factor his salary coming off the books in their offseason plans.

Of course, the likelihood of either of those is lower than my chances of bedding Jessica Alba, so...

I think we're stuck in the worst case scenario: Junior will take years to recover, possibly (probably) never building on his gains from last year, and we'd be saddled with his contract, forcing us to give up one or both of Daniels and Jack.


I agree, but perhaps the attitude should be "make moves that allow you to keep Marquis". All the Troy fans (where were you 2 years ago) will hate me beating the same drum, but seriously, couldn't you trade high on him right now, reduce some payroll perhaps by letting the other team meet the +25% salary portion of the deal and make room for Quis?

Say you've got a rather poor big at 8m. Trade him to Indy for Troy at 10m. There's 2m space created right there. If Troy's stats are slightly inflated (certainly these are the most 3PA/3PM of his career) this is the time to find someone who sees value in his deal. They have a guy that rebounds less per game with zilch from 3, which means they see Troy as a big upgrade - "Hey, he rebounds AND shoots".

Meanwhile we leave the 3 ball to guys like Granger, TJ, Jack, Dun and hopefully Rush and get better defensively with the PF coming back for Troy and the ability to retain Quis.


At least that's how I'd be approaching the offseason. I'd also pitch in a 2nd rounder to trade up to the late first if they'd go for it, depends on the quality of the big coming back.

There are possibilities...hell, if you could get Daniels to take $5mm, we could keep him. I just consider them pretty unlikely, and I struggle to come up with even vaguely realistic scenarios.

Also, keep in mind, that often, I'm responding to someone saying with should pick up Daniels who is not giving any thought as to how we pay for it. That is the case here with Wells, and I find it irritating that guys like Wells and Chad Ford can't take the 5 minutes with the internet and a calculator that it takes to understand very real salary considerations. I mean, ****...they get paid to do this crap.


Also Count there are CASH CONSIDERATIONS that a team could provide in a deal to offset the Pacers going over the lux tax. I got it from the best authority the other day that this was exactly the case in the Bayless deal (ie, deal sweetened by money).

True, but the max is $3mm, which would not even offset lost "under the tax" rebate, let alone pay for the tax.


In all honesty, how many here would be upset if this is what happens?


Last year I'd have been ok with it. This year, with the bizarre financial situation the team and the league are in, I'd be thrilled. Not at his injury... I'd never wish that on anybody and Dun is a good guy. But it sure would help the team. There will be plenty of guys available at the MLE that I'd trade Dun for if given the option.

I see Anthem edited this...

I wish only the best for Dunleavy. I hope he can return as healthy as possible.

That being said, and this being a cruel world, it's not a stretch to say that it would not have been all bad for the Pacers if they had come out of surgery and announced his career was over. We could re-sign both Jack and Daniels for only slightly more than what Junior is on the payroll for next year.

But again, I am glad the surgery went well, and I am pulling for Mike to have a full recovery.

switch
03-12-2009, 03:05 PM
I agree with Wells in the basketball sense, but there is no way the Pacers can do this if it means going over the luxury tax. I think it would be very difficult to speak to the media and justify voluntarily going over the tax after asking the city to help them cover Conseco Fieldhouse operating expenses. There would be several p'ed off tax payers if they actual get a new deal and then put themselves over the tax.

count55
03-12-2009, 03:15 PM
Would I be upset if Dunleavy was permanently injured? Yeah I'd be upset, and disappointed in anyone that took joy from it.

This is entirely appropriate, but it is also appropriate to point out that the Pacers would arguably gain from Dunleavy's medical retirement.

As I said earlier, it is a cruel world.

Squirrelz
03-12-2009, 03:23 PM
God no.

Dude can't even hit the toilet when he pisses in the morning.

Anthem
03-12-2009, 04:32 PM
I think we're stuck in the worst case scenario: Junior will take years to recover, possibly (probably) never building on his gains from last year, and we'd be saddled with his contract, forcing us to give up one or both of Daniels and Jack.
You called it.

maragin
03-12-2009, 04:48 PM
This is entirely appropriate, but it is also appropriate to point out that the Pacers would arguably gain from Dunleavy's medical retirement.

As I said earlier, it is a cruel world.

I agree with this point as well. I left out something along these lines in my post as I felt it detracted from the intended impact.

count55
03-12-2009, 04:58 PM
I agree with this point as well. I left out something along these lines in my post as I felt it detracted from the intended impact.

Fair enough...it's not a pleasant thing to contemplate...I feel a little sullied, myself.

Squirrelz
03-12-2009, 05:46 PM
Why is everybody so down on this site about the status of Dunleavy's future?

Very dismal here, is there a reason?

Will Galen
03-12-2009, 05:53 PM
Posts that keep referring to Dunleavy's medical retirement have the cart way before the horse. No one in the know has even hinted that Dun's injury is career threatening.

In fact his dad indicated that he would probably be back sooner than expected.

d_c
03-12-2009, 06:09 PM
Posts that keep referring to Dunleavy's medical retirement have the cart way before the horse. No one in the know has even hinted that Dun's injury is career threatening.


Yep, that just isn't happening.

A medical retirement would have to be decided by a LEAGUE appointed doctor and that kind of decision won't happen this summer (if it happens at all). That means Dunleavy will almost surely be under contract next season.

If it happens at all, it's going only going to have implications in the final year of Dunleavy's contract. As you say, talking about it now is putting the cart way before the horse.

count55
03-12-2009, 07:04 PM
Posts that keep referring to Dunleavy's medical retirement have the cart way before the horse. No one in the know has even hinted that Dun's injury is career threatening.

In fact his dad indicated that he would probably be back sooner than expected.


Yep, that just isn't happening.

A medical retirement would have to be decided by a LEAGUE appointed doctor and that kind of decision won't happen this summer (if it happens at all). That means Dunleavy will almost surely be under contract next season.

If it happens at all, it's going only going to have implications in the final year of Dunleavy's contract. As you say, talking about it now is putting the cart way before the horse.

Well,


This is why I said something "extraordinary." When the reports came out last week, I began doing the math on a medical retirement. I told a friend of mine that I wished one of two things would happen:

1. Dunleavy would be able to return and perform at last year's level at some point.

or

2. The Pacers & Dunleavy would know for sure that it was career ending by June, so that they could factor his salary coming off the books in their offseason plans.

Of course, the likelihood of either of those is lower than my chances of bedding Jessica Alba, so...

I think we're stuck in the worst case scenario: Junior will take years to recover, possibly (probably) never building on his gains from last year, and we'd be saddled with his contract, forcing us to give up one or both of Daniels and Jack.

I'm not sure how much more I could have emphasized how unlikely it was.

However, it is a potential topic of conversation when Pacer sources (Mark Boyle) have thrown out a worst case scenario of 18 months, which would effectively mean that he will have missed almost two full seasons.


Not I. I just wish it would come off the cap so as to allow the Pacers some flexibility.


I thought the Pacers got the salary relief, but Dun's salary would still count against the cap.

If a player is given a medical retirement, the team can apply for cap relief one year from the time of the injury or illness. If that occurs during the middle of any season, it negates the salary for that entire season and thereafter. As dc notes, a league doctor would need to approve it, and it is unbelievably unlikely that Dunleavy would retire before the end of next season.

The earliest this could possibly happen would be next February, but it is unlikely. Also, sometimes it doesn't stick. A league doctor certified that Darius Miles would not be able to play again, so his salary went back on Portland's books.

Anthem
03-12-2009, 09:43 PM
Posts that keep referring to Dunleavy's medical retirement have the cart way before the horse. No one in the know has even hinted that Dun's injury is career threatening.
I'm thinking the Heat announcers earlier in the year had more information than they let on.

Not that I think the injury is career-ending (I'm hopeful about the surgery), but they were saying "potentially career-ending" while the Pacers were saying "day to day."

One thing's for sure, they were far closer to being accurate than our own sources were.

kellogg
03-12-2009, 11:21 PM
Essentially this is a 'contract year' for Marquis...no other team (especially in this financial climate) will give him anywhere near 7.4 mil/year...
I wouldn't mind having him but no way at 7.4...maybe at most MLE-type money.

No one questions his talent, but until this year, Marquis, JO and Tinsley missed more games due to 'injuries' than any other Pacer players.

Will Galen
03-13-2009, 01:39 AM
Well, I'm not sure how much more I could have emphasized how unlikely it was.

However, it is a potential topic of conversation when Pacer sources (Mark Boyle) have thrown out a worst case scenario of 18 months, which would effectively mean that he will have missed almost two full seasons.

I realize you said it was very unlikely. However, as you pointed out Mark Boyle gave a WORST CASE scenario of 18 months, but other posters have been discussing Dun's injury as if medical retirement were a 50 percent possibility.

That's why I contend they are putting the cart before the horse. No one in the know has even hinted that medical retirement could be a result. The time to start talking that would be when we hear Dun's not doing well. However, all we've heard is the operation went really well, more like a best case scenario rather than worst case scenario.

count55
03-13-2009, 06:19 AM
I'm thinking the Heat announcers earlier in the year had more information than they let on.

Not that I think the injury is career-ending (I'm hopeful about the surgery), but they were saying "potentially career-ending" while the Pacers were saying "day to day."

One thing's for sure, they were far closer to being accurate than our own sources were.

I'm not.

I'm thinking they were just guessing, and got it right.

It's my overall impression that most NBA team announcers struggle to know more about the other teams than the average hot dog vendor...in an English Soccer stadium.

pacergod2
03-13-2009, 10:46 AM
This thread has turned into a medical retirement thread. Anyway... my thoughts are this... we won't be able to get any cap relief in any way shape or form until after Dunleavy's deal is already done. The recovery process is upwards of 18 months. No doctor will say one way or another until 18 months is up whether or not Dun will be capable of playing again. At that point he will be in his final year. By the time the insurance company gets its hands on the case, we might get insurance money by the end of 2010-2011 season. It would probably not get resolved until after the trade deadline as it and therefore he comes off our books. I don't think there is enough time between now and the end of his contract for any medical retirement to even really help give us financial flexibility. The hopes would be for the Simon's to get back Dunleavy's contract for the last three years of his deal retroactively in 2011.

kellogg
03-13-2009, 10:58 AM
What is the consensus here about whether Marquis will get resigned...and if so, what is a 'fair' price for them to pay?

Anthem
03-13-2009, 11:11 AM
I realize you said it was very unlikely. However, as you pointed out Mark Boyle gave a WORST CASE scenario of 18 months, but other posters have been discussing Dun's injury as if medical retirement were a 50 percent possibility.
I don't think anybody remembers a player that came out of major surgery with an 18-month recovery timetable. It's almost (if not completely) unheard of for an injury to be that bad and for a player to come back.

count55
03-13-2009, 12:04 PM
What is the consensus here about whether Marquis will get resigned...and if so, what is a 'fair' price for them to pay?

I don't think there's a consensus, but my opinion is that there is no chance we'll pick up the option, and, if forced to choose between him and Jack, the Pacers will choose Jack.


I don't think anybody remembers a player that came out of major surgery with an 18-month recovery timetable. It's almost (if not completely) unheard of for an injury to be that bad and for a player to come back.

That was what I inferred from Boyle's comments, and that's what I was implying, but that's clearly not what Will inferred from my comments.

pacergod2
03-13-2009, 12:28 PM
My thoughts on Daniels... we absolutely should not take his option. We have his Bird rights if we opt out. That allows us the flexibility to re-sign him for less and not use our MLE. We could re-sign him to a three or four year deal starting out next year at significantly less than 7.4M. I mean its pretty simple. If he gets a monster offer from someone we let him go unfortunately. But the most he could realistically get is someone's MLE, which is less than the 7.4M option. So there is no reason for us to take his option unless we think he some team under the cap wants to trade for his expiring this summer. Doubtful.

YoSoyIndy
03-14-2009, 09:01 AM
What is Marquis' value on the market this offseason? He's obviously very valuable, but I can't see any team giving him more than 7 mil a year.

Naptown_Seth
03-14-2009, 10:41 AM
There are possibilities...hell, if you could get Daniels to take $5mm, we could keep him. I just consider them pretty unlikely, and I struggle to come up with even vaguely realistic scenarios.See given Troy's output this year and the fact that he has put up similar numbers before when healthy it doesn't play as totally a fluke or just the system. He's taking/making more 3s but otherwise this is kinda his game.

And that almost makes his contract reasonable if you need someone with those skills. So if you are looking to dump a lot less dynamic PF, a guy like Foster that costs you 8m for 2 more years (let's say younger, but similar low offense, modest defense) you might see Troy as just the upgrade you need to go over the top.

So you aren't taking a huge chunk in to do that and you aren't giving up tons either. For the Pacers it's a "bad" deal in terms of PF talent overall, but in terms of player roles it might help out and it allows you to keep Quis.

This is why it isn't so far fetched to me. I even think that given the fact that the Pacers would be getting less talent in return that they could ask for a late first, early 2nd round pick depending on who they are dealing with.


CASH - well I'm thinking that if you reduce salary by trade to the point that you only go over the lux by $1m, then $2m in cash covers that. I didn't mean that you'd get more than the $3m max.

Naptown_Seth
03-14-2009, 10:46 AM
That is the case here with Wells, and I find it irritating that guys like Wells and Chad Ford can't take the 5 minutes with the internet and a calculator that it takes to understand very real salary considerations. I mean, ****...they get paid to do this crap.
We should start a podcast. I'm borderline serious. :)

There are times when I'm really running stats that I think "I'm not even getting paid for this." If I were doing the exact same work for an engineering company it would be worth tons. And there you have pros who do far less. Okay, so they are writers but most of the time now they aren't using quality writing because of the forum they are in. Sports already allows you more leeway, and then you go into podcast or blog or chat mode and all bets are off when it comes to grammar or turning a phrase.

So at that point what does distinguish you from Joe Protractor if your numbers aren't well thought out? Insider info that you only get because that badge says you work for a news source?

Anthem
03-14-2009, 11:01 AM
CASH - well I'm thinking that if you reduce salary by trade to the point that you only go over the lux by $1m, then $2m in cash covers that.
Not even close. You also lose out on your share of the tax revenue taken from the overspenders.