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Anthem
03-09-2009, 11:19 PM
Well, I figure we're close enough. Let's get this rolling.

I'm assuming the #7 spot is out of our reach, and that the teams below us (NY, Toronto, Washington) are not threats to catch us. So I'm only tracking Milwaukee, Chicago, New Jersey, Charlotte, and Indiana. Also, I won't start tracking tiebreakers until the last 5 Pacers games. That means we'll need to win outright in order to get the magic number. And we're off!

======

Milwaukee: 30-36 (16 games remaining)
Chicago: 29-36 (17 games remaining)
New Jersey: 28-35 (19 games remaining)
Charlotte: 28-35 (19 games remaining)
Indiana: 28-37 (17 games remaining)

Magic numbers are calculated by assuming that the rest of the teams win the remainder of their games. Then, every Pacers win or <that team> loss reduces the magic number by 1. On nights where the Pacers win AND the other team loses, the magic number drops by at least 2. It's possible for such a win to decrease the magic number by 3, if it gives the Pacers the edge in head-to-head, which is the first tiebreaker. But like I said, I won't be calculating that until the last 5 games. So here are our possible finishes:

Milwaukee: 46 wins
Chicago: 46 wins
New Jersey: 47 wins
Charlotte: 47 wins

It's ironic that the top two teams (Milwaukee and Chicago) will actually be easier to catch than NJ and Charlotte, due to those teams having more games remaining. Pacers would need 48 wins to ensure success, which means 20 wins out of our next 17. No sweat!

So here's the final, as of March 10th. I'll update this nightly for the rest of the season.

Charlotte - 20
New Jersey - 20
Chicago - 19
Milwaukee - 19

pacerfreak
03-10-2009, 05:23 AM
Thanks for taking the time to do this. I've been looking at all this on nba.com but not actually getting it figured out. This really helps.

I'm very hopeful, however I feel like it's a really long shot for us to make the 8th seed.

I guess after looking at the numbers it doesn't look as bad as it seams.

I will be watching the Bucks, Bulls, Cats, Nets, and Knicks. I also think that the Sixers could fall dramatically.

'freak...out!

Anthem
03-10-2009, 08:27 AM
It's still pretty hard. Charlotte has 19 games left. We need to have them lose 10 of those, and we'd have to win 10, to make it past them.

duke dynamite
03-10-2009, 08:34 AM
I loved this thread last season. Good work, Anthem!

Anthem
03-11-2009, 02:57 PM
After the March 10 games:

Indy lost, Milwaukee lost, Charlotte lost, Chicago and New Jersey didn't play.

New Jersey - 20
Charlotte - 19
Chicago - 19
Milwaukee - 18

Naptown_Seth
03-11-2009, 04:06 PM
You preface the whole thing and I still get this...

So I'm only tracking Milwaukee, Chicago, New Jersey, Charlotte, and Indiana.
"Only" he says. ;)

Man's that's a lot of teams to be battling with only 16 games left. Ugh.

Naptown_Seth
03-11-2009, 04:19 PM
Instead of making my annual "darksider" version of this process, the "eliminated from the bottom" variation that is meant to discourage tank hopes but always gets ripped by insane/misguided sunshiners who think it's my way of saying the team stinks, I'm going to just piggy-back in here.

Teams the Pacers can't "catch" in terms of most losses and the magic numbers for those teams to "eliminate" the Pacers from those higher draft spots. I have ties factored out by setting the magic number to ensure 1 more loss by the other team.

Believe it or not the Pacers are not yet mathematically safe from coming last in the NBA.

Going from top draft slot down, a Pacers win or a loss by these teams reduces their "magic" number on the Pacers and makes tankers cry.

Kings 5
Clips 6
Wiz 6
OKC 9
Griz 9

Minny 10
GS 13
Toronto 14
Bucks 18
NY 18
B'cats 19

03-11-2009, 06:42 PM
Instead of making my annual "darksider" version of this process, the "eliminated from the bottom" variation that is meant to discourage tank hopes but always gets ripped by insane/misguided sunshiners who think it's my way of saying the team stinks, I'm going to just piggy-back in here.

Teams the Pacers can't "catch" in terms of most losses and the magic numbers for those teams to "eliminate" the Pacers from those higher draft spots. I have ties factored out by setting the magic number to ensure 1 more loss by the other team.

Believe it or not the Pacers are not yet mathematically safe from coming last in the NBA.

Going from top draft slot down, a Pacers win or a loss by these teams reduces their "magic" number on the Pacers and makes tankers cry.

Kings 5
Clips 6
Wiz 6
OKC 9
Griz 9

Minny 10
GS 13
Toronto 14
Bucks 18
NY 18
B'cats 19

What makes me cry is missing out on both the playoffs and a good draft pick. But, hey, if we do it enough years in a row, surely our luck will change! Right? Right? Hello? :confused:

MyFavMartin
03-11-2009, 09:13 PM
Well, I figure we're close enough. Let's get this rolling.

I'm assuming the #7 spot is out of our reach, and that the teams below us (NY, Toronto, Washington) are not threats to catch us. So I'm only tracking Milwaukee, Chicago, New Jersey, Charlotte, and Indiana. Also, I won't start tracking tiebreakers until the last 5 Pacers games. That means we'll need to win outright in order to get the magic number. And we're off!

======

Milwaukee: 30-36 (16 games remaining)
Chicago: 29-36 (17 games remaining)
New Jersey: 28-35 (19 games remaining)
Charlotte: 28-35 (19 games remaining)
Indiana: 28-37 (17 games remaining)

Magic numbers are calculated by assuming that the rest of the teams win the remainder of their games. Then, every Pacers win or <that team> loss reduces the magic number by 1. On nights where the Pacers win AND the other team loses, the magic number drops by at least 2. It's possible for such a win to decrease the magic number by 3, if it gives the Pacers the edge in head-to-head, which is the first tiebreaker. But like I said, I won't be calculating that until the last 5 games. So here are our possible finishes:

Milwaukee: 46 wins
Chicago: 46 wins
New Jersey: 47 wins
Charlotte: 47 wins

It's ironic that the top two teams (Milwaukee and Chicago) will actually be easier to catch than NJ and Charlotte, due to those teams having more games remaining. Pacers would need 48 wins to ensure success, which means 20 wins out of our next 17. No sweat!

So here's the final, as of March 10th. I'll update this nightly for the rest of the season.

Charlotte - 20
New Jersey - 20
Chicago - 19
Milwaukee - 19

Need to add the Knicks after tonight.

Naptown_Seth
03-11-2009, 09:25 PM
What makes me cry is missing out on both the playoffs and a good draft pick. But, hey, if we do it enough years in a row, surely our luck will change! Right? Right? Hello? :confused:
Man are you going to regret things if Rush works out as expected. ;)

And can I get a complaint about not getting a higher pick the year Danny was drafted? So to you it's year (Rush) after year (gave up Acie Law, I call that a win personally) after year (Williams)...but not after year, because that's Granger then. So 3 years is enough years in a row to make fun of, let's keep it mum on that 4th year. :p

Right now my pick for this year is Terrence Williams, L'ville. A tall SG/PG (I think true NBA PG) who rebounds 8 a night with many double digit rebounds, a slew of 7-8 assist games the last month and a new found outside shot after Pitino reworked his motion completely.

He's slotted in the mid to late 20's, long past the Pacers pick. Other than FT shooting he's a brilliant prospect who plays a very smart and physical game, and we could still get him even if the team does make the playoffs. And this in a crap draft year no less.

As I've said in previous "we must tank" debates, missing out on a #6 pick also ensures that we aren't the team that picked Sene or Darko way too high. It cuts both ways.

Anthem
03-11-2009, 10:13 PM
Chicago lost, NJ is playing Golden State (I'll finalize tomorrow), Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Indiana didn't play.

New Jersey - 19
Charlotte - 19
Chicago - 18
Milwaukee - 18
NY - 18

Anthem
03-11-2009, 10:17 PM
Need to add the Knicks after tonight.
They're currently 27-37, so they have 18 games left. If they win out they can finish with 45 wins, so we'd need 46 wins to pass them. We're currently 28-38, so our NY magic number is 18. I'll track that from now on.

Will Galen
03-12-2009, 12:34 AM
Jersey lost, so now we are only two games behind both Jersey and Chicago in the all important lost column.

Anthem
03-13-2009, 03:12 PM
We could make up some serious ground tonight if we can beat the Hawks.

Chicago plays Philly, Charlotte plays Houston, New York plays Minnesota, Milwaukee plays Nawlins, and Jersey plays Portland. In all of those (except maybe NY-Minny) I'd expect a loss for the team we're fighting with.

At the same time, though, the Hawks have had our number recently. Let's hope Danny comes out hot.

Anthem
03-14-2009, 12:06 AM
Rough night. Everybody else lost, but so did we. Would have been nice to make up some ground.

New Jersey - 18
NY - 18
Charlotte - 18
Chicago - 17
Milwaukee - 17

Lord Helmet
03-14-2009, 12:33 AM
Rough night. Everybody else lost, but so did we. Would have been nice to make up some ground.

New Jersey - 18
NY - 18
Charlotte - 18
Chicago - 17
Milwaukee - 17
Torture.

Would have been nice not to screw this up.

But I guess if you lose to the Wizards you probably shouldn't even be in playoff consideration.

Naptown_Seth
03-14-2009, 09:22 AM
DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings 4
Wiz 4
Clips 6
Griz 7
OKC 8

Minny 9
Toronto 12
GS 13
Bucks 17

NY 18
B'cats 18
Bulls 18
NJ 18

Starting to come closer to a 7th slot. I hate to say it but top 10 feels more definite every day. So much for the late season rally. You just can't lose games like the ATL loss. Good or not, those are the teams you have to beat unless you want to climb my list.

On the sunshiner side, look at all those teams Shade gets to root for now. ;)

DisplacedKnick
03-14-2009, 11:45 AM
Rough night. Everybody else lost, but so did we. Would have been nice to make up some ground.

New Jersey - 18
NY - 18
Charlotte - 18
Chicago - 17
Milwaukee - 17

Er, I think at least one team won.

Anthem
03-14-2009, 04:59 PM
Er, I think at least one team won.
Nobody that mattered. :devil:

Don't worry, I didn't change your magic number.

LG33
03-14-2009, 08:18 PM
Minny up 15 at the half over Charlotte, 66-51.
Chicago up even more on the Hornets, 40-24 (2nd Quarter).

Anthem
03-14-2009, 09:44 PM
Minny won, which is great, but Chicago also won, which is less so.

New Jersey - 18
NY - 18
Charlotte - 17
Chicago - 17
Milwaukee - 17

MyFavMartin
03-14-2009, 11:22 PM
Thought we'd make a move when Granger was due "any day now" with the Portland game... been 3 games and we really could have made a jump when you look at how other teams have performed in the same span.

Anthem
03-16-2009, 09:34 AM
We are not winning enough games. The other teams are doing their part (NJ and NY lost, nobody else played), but we can't catch up without some wins. There's still time, but it's close. 16 games remaining, and every single team has a magic number of 17.

New Jersey - 17
NY - 17
Charlotte - 17
Chicago - 17
Milwaukee - 17

Naptown_Seth
03-16-2009, 09:39 AM
Those last 2 losses not only hurt the bottom line, they don't really inspire confidence in this whole process. Am I way off thinking this sqaud is sputtering to the end worse than last year?

You can't just pin it on Granger's injury because initially they reacted well to it. And while Dun has been out, Troy has been twice as effective as he was last year so there is some tradeoff there. Plus this squad has had healthy PG play all season.

Shouldn't this be going better now? :confused:

Naptown_Seth
03-16-2009, 09:56 AM
Man, this isn't going well unless you are a tanker. Pacers aren't exactly getting eliminated by any of these bad teams very quickly.

DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings 3
Wiz 4
Clips 5
Griz 7
OKC 7

Minny 9
Toronto 12
GS 12
Bucks 17

NY 17
B'cats 17
NJ 17
Bulls 18

The Pacers aren't going to "catch" Minny or the other bottom 6 teams, the magic numbers for those teams to pass Indy is insanely high. However Toronto and GS are flirting with passing Indy and shoving them down to that #7 or #8 draft spot.

Pacers mathematically eliminated by 6 teams already. Denver, Utah, Portland and New Orleans should finish them off this week. So a top 20 pick is about to become official.

naptownmenace
03-16-2009, 10:09 AM
You can't just pin it on Granger's injury because initially they reacted well to it. And while Dun has been out, Troy has been twice as effective as he was last year so there is some tradeoff there. Plus this squad has had healthy PG play all season.

Shouldn't this be going better now? :confused:

I think you can pin a lot of it on Granger's injury in the sense that initially our opposition didn't know what to expect and we snuck up on some teams. Now they know that they need to stop Murphy and Jack to win and teams have been doing a good job of that lately.

Also, you have to remember that the Pacers are a terrible road team. The last two games were on the road so it's not surprising that they lost both of them. It's a good thing they only have 4 more road games this season.

Now if they stumble in their remaining 10 home games, they're toast. Then again if they can they can pull off an 8-2 run at home and 2-2 on the road they'll end up 38-44. That might be enough to make it in. If they can't finish 10-4 the rest of the way, with 10 home games, they don't deserve to make the postseason.

DisplacedKnick
03-16-2009, 11:44 AM
Now if they stumble in their remaining 10 home games, they're toast. Then again if they can they can pull off an 8-2 run at home and 2-2 on the road they'll end up 38-44. That might be enough to make it in. If they can't finish 10-4 the rest of the way, with 10 home games, they don't deserve to make the postseason.

None of the teams contending for the 8th seed in the East deserves to make the postseason. But unless the league institutes a "Special Phoenix Dispensation Clause" one of them will be.

It's an ugly time - I always feel a little dirty when my team's in the middle of the "who sucks the least" competition.

ReginaldWayne
03-16-2009, 02:57 PM
I dont understand the "If youre not 500 you dont deserve to make the playoffs" talk. The top 8 records on both sides make the playoffs, its pretty simple. Whether you are 41-41, or 38-44, 3 games behind that, if you finish with the 8th best record, you deserve to be in. You can play s***y the first half of the year, and play well above 500 for the second half of the year, still be under 500, and make the playoffs, you deserve it. Again, you can lose 5 games at the buzzer, finish 36-45, and if you finish top 8, you make the playoffs. As long as your record is top 8 out of 15, regardless of finishing below or above 500, you deserve to make it.

DisplacedKnick
03-16-2009, 03:05 PM
Playoffs should be for good teams, not suck teams.

Every team going for the 8th seed in the EC is a suck team.

ReginaldWayne
03-16-2009, 03:22 PM
Not every team to make the playoffs is going to be 500+, you think the 1st place team should just get a buy ?

DisplacedKnick
03-16-2009, 03:47 PM
Not every team to make the playoffs is going to be 500+, you think the 1st place team should just get a buy ?

What in the world are you talking about?

Yes, the 8th seed will make the playoffs, whatever their record. Not one of those teams has done anything to show they deserve to be in the playoffs.

Take the Knicks since I'll address my own team's suckiness. We were 21-25 and out of a playoff spot (we were either 9th or 10th). Since then we're 7-13. Teams that go 7-13 shouldn't still be contending for the playoffs but not only are we, but our position's stronger than it was 20 games ago.

Not one of those teams has done anything to remotely resemble a good team. It's like hiring a flunky because you have to fill a position in a company even though you know he's going to flame out in the first 2 weeks. Did he get the job? Sure. Did he deserve it? Not in my book but they had to hire somebody or lose the position when corporate budgets come out.

The NBA will have 8 teams from each Conference in the playoffs because the rules say they have to. Doesn't mean they all deserve it.

ReginaldWayne
03-16-2009, 04:13 PM
If you play better than the other 7 teams, then you do deserve it. Why would you ask me what im talking about you know exactly what im talking about.

PaceBalls
03-16-2009, 04:57 PM
The whole playoff system is messed up IMO. It needs to be the top 16 (or less) teams in the NBA period and the seeding should be based on the record not the conferences or divisions. I think they should just do away with conferences all together.

DisplacedKnick
03-16-2009, 05:33 PM
The whole playoff system is messed up IMO. It needs to be the top 16 (or less) teams in the NBA period and the seeding should be based on the record not the conferences or divisions. I think they should just do away with conferences all together.

They'd be better off taking a total of 12 teams with the winner of each division getting a bye. Sure, some teams would lose revenue but you'd probably have to be a decent team to get in. Of course then the debate would be about a weak division winner but IMO that's a much better discussion.

Anyway, I've hijacked this thread enough so I'll shut up on it - one crap team will be making the playoffs this year and it'll be interesting finding out which one it is.

Anthem
03-16-2009, 10:17 PM
Ouch. Earlier Toronto was putting the hurt on Charlotte, but it looks like that got turned around. Jersey lost.

NY - 17
Charlotte - 17
Chicago - 17
Milwaukee - 17
New Jersey - 16

Anthem
03-17-2009, 08:27 PM
Hmm. Chicago is up on Boston, but I doubt that will last. That's the only game tonight that matters.

In other news, D. Harris messed his shoulder up and is out "indefinitely." At least 2 weeks, probably, which hopefully will put them out of the race before he gets back.

Anthem
03-17-2009, 10:57 PM
Never mind.

Naptown_Seth
03-18-2009, 10:50 AM
What in the world are you talking about?

Yes, the 8th seed will make the playoffs, whatever their record. Not one of those teams has done anything to show they deserve to be in the playoffs....(see rest above)
But doesn't this just make getting the #1 seed more valuable? Who said the #1 team should have to face a really tough team anyway?

Besides, the #8 seed out West is just as likely to be 1 and done too. So why bother even with +500 teams? Bad teams have made it from either conference in other years too. And as said, this doesn't account for teams that got dramatically better or worse during the season (see Isiah's #3 seed team vs Brown's first playoff run).

Naptown_Seth
03-18-2009, 10:55 AM
DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings 2
Wiz 3
Clips 4
Griz 6
OKC 7

Minny 8
Toronto 11
GS 12

NJ 16
Bucks 17
NY 17
B'cats 17
Bulls 18

Drat. Looks like NJ is going to catch and "pass" the Pacers on this list. They can still get stuck down at 10 pretty easily even if they lose a bunch themselves. Everyone's nightmare situation.

I'm all for going for wins, but sheesh, you gotta get some if you are doing that.

Hicks
03-18-2009, 01:52 PM
This isn't the thread for it, so if this causes a lot of stir I'll split threads: Is there any team that's going to be picking in the mid to low 20's that would be interested in our #10-ish pick this year for 2 future firsts? Assuming of course that team isn't expected to head to lottery land soon (in which case they almost certainly would not do this)?

pacergod2
03-18-2009, 03:57 PM
The Timberwolves have two late first round picks this year. The Bulls do as well. THe Kings Blazers and Thunder have extra late firsts to go with early second rounders. Also here is a link to the draft express page that keeps track of pick movement.

http://www.draftexpress.com/transactions.php

Anthem
03-18-2009, 09:43 PM
Brutal, just brutal.

We lost, Charlotte won, Jersey won, Chicago won.

Charlotte - 17
Chicago - 17
Milwaukee - 16
New Jersey - 16
NY - 16

Anthem
03-21-2009, 04:51 PM
Again with the hurt. Charlotte won, Jersey won, NY lost. Oh, and so did we.

Charlotte - 17
Chicago - 17
Milwaukee - 16
New Jersey - 16
NY - 15

DisplacedKnick
03-21-2009, 07:07 PM
I think you can remove us from the list - losing by 30 at home to the worst team in the league is less than promising.

Anthem
03-21-2009, 08:52 PM
Pacers finally win one! It's been pretty brutal since I started the thread... I wondered if I was jinxing us. A loss tonight would have sealed it, but this kept us alive for another day.

We gain 2 on Charlotte, since we won and they lost. NY lost, Chicago and Milwaukee are still playing. Both are up, but both are playing teams that could be expected to come back. Go LA / Portland!

EDIT: Wow, they both lost. We won, everybody else lost. We need more nights like this!

New Jersey - 16
Chicago - 15
Charlotte - 15
Milwaukee - 14
NY - 13

I'm keeping you in for now, Rim. The Pacers only have 4 games in March and 7 games in April, so there's plenty of games left for you guys to beat us for position. Honestly, with only 11 games left it's going to be very difficult for us. It's do-able, though. We play Milwaukee once and Chicago twice, so that helps.

Anthem
03-21-2009, 09:02 PM
Ok, here's the tiebreaker situation. I won't use these to change the magic numbers until after our next game, but I was curious.

- We only play 3 games v Jersey this year, and we won 2 of them. Tiebreaker: us.
- We've played 2 against Chicago so far, and split. Two to go = toss-up.
- 3 games against Milwaukee, and they won two. One to go = toss-up
- Our win against Charlotte evens the season series. Second tiebreaker is conference record, which they currently lead 17-24 to 16-26. Plenty of time to catch up: Toss-up.
- NY has won 2 of 3, so they own their tiebreaker.

So too soon to say anything, really, as far as tiebreakers go. But other than New York, we could conceivably win all of our tiebreakers, which would mean all of the magic numbers would drop by one.

Naptown_Seth
03-21-2009, 09:48 PM
DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings -- locked in worse than Pacers
Wiz -- locked in
Clips 2
Griz 2
OKC 4

Minny 5
Toronto 9
GS 10

NY 13
NJ 15
Bucks 15
B'cats 15
Bulls 17

Pacers can now no longer finish higher than 3rd in the ping pong race. Still targeting around the 7-10 range, just like the last 2 years. It's looking like they might yet find a rotation player at that point in the draft.

Anthem
03-22-2009, 09:40 PM
Jersey lost, nobody else played.

New Jersey - 15
Chicago - 15
Charlotte - 15
Milwaukee - 14
NY - 13

Anthem
03-23-2009, 10:35 PM
Chi-town won, NY lost.

New Jersey - 15
Chicago - 15
Charlotte - 15
Milwaukee - 14
NY - 12

Naptown_Seth
03-24-2009, 10:42 AM
DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings -- locked in worse than Pacers
Wiz -- locked in
Clips -- locked in

Griz 1
Minny 3
OKC 4

Toronto 9
GS 9

NY 12
NJ 14
Bucks 14
B'cats 15
Bulls 16

Pacers can now no longer finish higher than 4th in the ping pong race. "Better" than 7th is virtually impossible at this point.

pwee31
03-24-2009, 08:11 PM
With Rasheed, Iverson, and Rip out for the Pistons, I feel they may drop to the 8th with the Bulls landing the 7th spot. Unfortunately, I'm not sure either will fall enough for us to snatch a playoff spot

Anthem
03-25-2009, 09:02 PM
What a great night. Pacers win, which automatically drops everybody else's magic number by one. Plus, Charlotte lost, Milwaukee lost, New Jersey lost, and NY lost.

Chicago - 14
New Jersey - 13
Charlotte - 13
Milwaukee - 12
NY - 10

We need more nights like this. 10 games left.

EDIT: NY lost after all. Beautiful.

DisplacedKnick
03-25-2009, 09:11 PM
What a great night. Pacers win, which automatically drops everybody else's magic number by one. Plus, Charlotte lost, Milwaukee lost, New Jersey lost, and unfortunately NY squeaked out a win.

We did? I'm listening to us lose in OT right now.

kester99
03-25-2009, 09:14 PM
You've got 135 points! You can't possibly be losing.

Oh. Yep.

Bball
03-25-2009, 09:15 PM
I think Anthem is in his future machine again with Mr. Peabody...

DisplacedKnick
03-25-2009, 09:20 PM
I think Anthem is in his future machine again with Mr. Peabody...

Next year we can squeek out a home win vs the Clippers? Oh goodie! That'll scare the Celts and Cavs.

Bball
03-25-2009, 09:45 PM
Next year we can squeek out a home win vs the Clippers? Oh goodie! That'll scare the Celts and Cavs.

Who said it was next year that he was watching? All we know is that it wasn't tonight.

:tinfoil:

Anthem
03-25-2009, 10:33 PM
Weird. The Yahoo scoreboard called the game final with the Knicks down 2.

Anthem
03-25-2009, 10:38 PM
Hmm, Detroit really is falling. 34-36 with 12 games remaining. Too little too late, though.

If they won out, they could hit 46 wins, which puts their magic number at 17. We only play 10 more games.

They'd have to lose 8 of 12, and we'd have to win 9 of 10. I don't find either scenario very likely. I'll track them anyway, just to be thorough, but we'll have to play significantly better before we'll be close to knocking them out.

EDIT: We've lost 2 of 3 against them, with one remaining. Winning that would drop our number by at least 2, and possibly 3 (depending on the tiebreakers).

It's within the realm of possibility, but not likely.

stevo
03-25-2009, 11:14 PM
sorry Anthem I should have read this thread before starting a new one.

Naptown_Seth
03-26-2009, 09:47 AM
DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings -- locked in worse than Pacers
Wiz -- locked in
Clips -- locked in
Griz -- locked in

Minny 1
OKC 2
GS 6

Toronto 8
NY 10
NJ 12
Bucks 12
B'cats 13
Bulls 15

Pacers can now no longer finish higher than 5th in the ping pong race. "Better" than 7th is virtually impossible at this point and it's looking like Golden State is going to take that and push Indy to 8th at "best".

Here we go again, Anthem and I coming at each other with the Pacers trapped dead center between us. Oh well, we did well in last year's draft at this spot, but then that was one of the best draft classes ever.

Anthem
03-26-2009, 09:41 PM
Hey Miami... way to show some pride! You lost last night, then came out and laid an egg against Chicago. We needed you to win that.

Lord Helmet
03-26-2009, 10:17 PM
The Heat suck, thanks for losing...:mad:

TMJ31
03-27-2009, 01:17 AM
Hey Miami... way to show some pride! You lost last night, then came out and laid an egg against Chicago. We needed you to win that.

Crap...

Still time, but that one hurts.

This is the rough part about not controlling your destiny for the playoffs (Cliche, but very true)

You gotta watch the scoreboard and there is nothing you can do but hope.

stevo
03-27-2009, 10:50 AM
Chicago is playing well. Don't count on them losing. They are easily a 6 or 7 seed.
Miami still has to goto Dallas, Charlotte, Washington, Boston and Atlanta with home
games against Milwaukee, Orlando, New Orleans, New York and Detroit. They have lost
5 of 7 and could fall to the seventh seed because Chicago's remining schedule is nice.
Odds are against Chicago being a 6th seed but it should end up being closer than the 4 game
separation with Miami than it is now.

Anthem
03-28-2009, 12:25 AM
Chicago didn't play, New York and Charlotte won, Jersey and Milwaukee lost.

Chicago - 14
Charlotte - 13
New Jersey - 12
Milwaukee - 11
NY - 10

Some nice stratification there... now if we could just win some more (i.e., all) games.

Naptown_Seth
03-28-2009, 09:45 AM
DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings -- locked in
Wiz -- locked in
Clips -- locked in
Griz -- locked in
Minny -- locked in

OKC 1
GS 6

Toronto 8
NY 10
NJ 11
Bucks 11
B'cats 13
Bulls 15

Pacers can now no longer finish higher than 6th in the ping pong race. Next Pacers win or OKC loss locks the Pacers to no higher than 7th.

With 10 to go the Pacers would need to go on a bit of a losing streak while GS wins in order to stay "above" them. Right now 5 wins separate the two teams. If Indy were to go 2-8 to finish, GS would have to go 7-3 just to get the tie. GS has 6 games left vs playoff caliber teams, so they'll have to pull some upsets even if the Pacers totally collapse.

The real danger of a "bad" swing is with the other eastern foes limping to the playoffs. It wouldn't be so hot to see the Pacers flub their run to pass these teams but yet win enough to move ahead of most of them.

I'm not a tanker but at this point I'm starting to get an attitude of either get that crap done or just stop. As bad as some of those teams are they should have been catching them.

8 Henderson/S Curry
9 Aminu/T Evans
10 Brackins/DeRozen
11 Budinger/Teague

Right now both have TWill going below this. IMO the Pacers would select Williams before Curry or DeRozen, and possibly before Chase. I'm not certain that Teague or Aminu will actually come out this year at this point.

Sorry for the out of thread prospect talk, just trying to put the Evil Magic Number portion of this thread in perspective.

Naptown_Seth
03-31-2009, 10:53 AM
DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings -- locked in
Wiz -- locked in
Clips -- locked in
Griz -- locked in
Minny -- locked in
OKC -- locked in

GS 3

Toronto 7
NY 7
NJ 8
Bucks 9
B'cats 12
Bulls 13

Pacers can now no longer finish higher than 7th in the ping pong race. Golden St is 3 losses away (or Pacers wins) away from locking up the 8th spot for ping pong balls.

New York is coming hard for that 9th spot too.

Pacers have also been eliminated from the top 13 records, teams locked in better than them. That leaves 10 team in play for the Pacers to move above or below, all but GS are in the East:

GS, NY, TOR, NJ, MIL, CHA, CHI, DET, MIA, PHI

Miami has a magic of 1 on Indy, so they're about to be eliminated from the top 14 with 9 teams in play really.

Anthem
03-31-2009, 11:39 AM
Yeah, I stopped updating this after the Bulls game. Losing that pretty much sealed the season. If we go on a winning streak and Chi goes on a losing one, I'll catch us up. In the meantime, though, the playoffs are no longer realistic.

Kegboy
03-31-2009, 02:37 PM
Budinger

:yikes:

:peek:

Naptown_Seth
03-31-2009, 04:03 PM
Kegboy - I promise you he's massively improved this year. Very athletic. More Brent Barry than Croshere. He stunk last year and I said as much in the 2008 prospect thread.

Naptown_Seth
04-06-2009, 12:14 PM
DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings -- locked in
Wiz -- locked in
Clips -- locked in
Griz -- locked in
Minny -- locked in
OKC -- locked in

GS 1

NY 3
Toronto 4
Bucks 4
NJ 5
B'cats 7

Bulls 10
Pistons 10

Pacers can now no longer finish higher than 7th in the ping pong race. Golden St is 1 loss away (or Pacers win) from forcing the Pacers to the 8th spot for ping pong balls.

NY, MIL, TOR definitely look like they are headed to worse records than Indy. This is pushing the Pacers toward the 11th spot.

Pacers have also been eliminated from the top 15 records, teams locked in better than them. That leaves 8 teams in play for the Pacers to move above or below, all but GS are in the East:

GS, NY, TOR, NJ, MIL, CHA, CHI, DET

count55
04-12-2009, 10:18 PM
I was looking at this, so I thought I'd just go ahead and update Seth's tracking...

DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

Kings -- locked in
Wiz -- locked in
Clips -- locked in
Griz -- locked in
Minny -- locked in
OKC -- locked in
GS -- locked in
NY -- locked in
Toronto -- locked in

Bucks 1
NJ 1
B'cats 2

Pacers can now no longer finish higher than 10th in the ping pong race. Mil & NJ are 1 loss away (or Pacers win) from forcing the Pacers to the 11th or 12th spot for ping pong balls.

Charlotte plays at New Jersey and at Orlando, while the Pacers host Cleveland and Milwaukee. Neither of Charlotte's foes are playing for anything, while Cleveland still needs one win to clinch homecourt throughout the playoffs.

Pacers have also been eliminated from the top 17 records, teams locked in better than them. That leaves 3 teams in play for the Pacers to move above or below, all are in the East:

NJ, MIL, CHA

Hicks
04-12-2009, 10:55 PM
So we're picking from 10 to 13?

ReginaldWayne
04-12-2009, 10:58 PM
So we're picking from 10 to 13?

no, were picking from 1-13.

Hicks
04-12-2009, 11:06 PM
You know what I mean. :-p

count55
04-12-2009, 11:19 PM
So we're picking from 10 to 13?

Most likely 12-13.

BTW...There are no "tiebreakers" if we end up with the same record as someone else. It's a simple coin flip.

Naptown_Seth
04-13-2009, 10:40 AM
Nice work Count, beat me to it.

I hadn't been even wasting time with tie breakers, so technically I had the kitties at a 3. But pretty much the bottom line is that the Pacers will either have the 12th or 13th pick with PHX as the only non-playoff team behind them in the draft. The worst nightmare for several people around here.

And no, we won't be picking from "1 to 13". It's either a top 3 spot or 12-14. The lottery only picks the top 3 spots, everything else is in order once those are picked. The dramatic card revel method might imply that all spots are up for grabs but that's not how it's done. When you see that a team is missing in the order as they show the cards it means that team "hit the lottery", meaning they got a top 3 spot. So if we see "PHX.....CHA............NJ....MIL..." we can start partying right then, even if it's not the #1 spot it's still a huge win.

If the Pacers finish in 13th then it's 1-3 or 13-14. They would move down to 13-14 in those cases if PHX or CHA (if better than Indy) won a top 3 lottery spot which would be a borderline miracle.

So dial in your 12-13th prospects or pray for some trading if you want something better. To me this only ensures that the pick will 80% be Lawson now.

stevo
04-13-2009, 10:55 AM
Nice work Count, beat me to it.

I hadn't been even wasting time with tie breakers, so technically I had the kitties at a 3. But pretty much the bottom line is that the Pacers will either have the 12th or 13th pick with PHX as the only non-playoff team behind them in the draft. The worst nightmare for several people around here.

And no, we won't be picking from "1 to 13". It's either a top 3 spot or 12-14. The lottery only picks the top 3 spots, everything else is in order once those are picked. The dramatic card revel method might imply that all spots are up for grabs but that's not how it's done. When you see that a team is missing in the order as they show the cards it means that team "hit the lottery", meaning they got a top 3 spot. So if we see "PHX.....CHA............NJ....MIL..." we can start partying right then, even if it's not the #1 spot it's still a huge win.

If the Pacers finish in 13th then it's 1-3 or 13-14. They would move down to 13-14 in those cases if PHX or CHA (if better than Indy) won a top 3 lottery spot which would be a borderline miracle.

So dial in your 12-13th prospects or pray for some trading if you want something better. To me this only ensures that the pick will 80% be Lawson now.

Good work. very nice description of the process.