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View Full Version : .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.



Phree Refill
01-20-2009, 02:37 PM
At the start of the season most users of PD anticipated we would be a sub .500 team with others predicting we'd be right around .500 I'm sure you all would agree that this team definitely has the ability to be much better than our current record says. We have ran with the best in the league and beat the best on a coupel occasions. As it stands though half way through the season we are at 15-26. With how things have gone thus far, I for one would be very pleased if this team could finish .500 That would require us to go 26-15 the rest of the way. Let's take an in depth look at the remaining games on the schedule.

I'll just start by naming all the teams that we will no longer play in the second half of the season:
Golden State, Lakers, New Jersey, New Orleans, and Phoenix. Of those teams, if I look at the standings right now it appears Golden State is the only one that is not formidable. Not having to play the Lakers, Suns, or Hornets again is huge.

Now for the teams we will only play once more. I will call these teams Group A: Houston, Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit. There are some very tough teams in that lineup. Off the surface it could be expected that we go 4-6 against those teams. I believe that we can go 6-4 with wins over Memphis, Sac-town, the Clippers, OKC, Detroit, and a win over either Houston or Dallas. Thus 6-4

Next is the teams we play twice for the remainder of the season. I will call these teams Group B: San Antonio, Orlando, Miami, New York, Minnesota, Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland, and Atlanta. This obviously makes up the most daunting portion of our remaining schedule. There are some very tough teams in that group. Assuming we drop both games to the Spurs, Magic, and Cavs, that leaves 16 games up for grabs. I believe we will split games with the Blazers, Hawks, Heat, and Sixers. I don't see any reason why we can't win both games against the rest of the teams. That would leave us with a 12-10 record against those teams.

Lastly is the teams we play three times. They will be called Group C. We only play Chicago, Charlotte, and Milwaukee three times for the remainder of the season. None of those teams are powerhouses, granted the season is only half over at this point and any of them could presumably catch fire. I may be thinking a little optimistic here but I don't see why we can't go 8-1 for those nine games with our only loss coming to the Bucks. All three of those teams are currently just a couple games ahead of us in the standings. If we can play the way we have against the elite teams in the league then we should have no problem disposing of these three teams.

If all goes as I have predicted, our second half record would be 26-15; Group A: 6-4, Group B: 12-10, Group C: 8-1. I plan to keep an updated post on how we are doing against each of these teams as compared to my prediction. There could be instances where we beat some teams I did not expect and lose to some teams I planned on beating. But I believe that breaking the schedule down as I have above makes it appear a little less daunting to finish .500

I invite you guys to please share your thoughts and opinions on how you believe we will fair against each group I have listed above (hence labeling them Group A, B and C to make it easier when discussing each group in your post). I'm sure each of you have your own spin on how you think we will finish and I just figured taking a look at the schedule as I have broken it down above makes for a more realistic prediciton.

BRushWithDeath
01-20-2009, 02:44 PM
The .500 finish is slightly less likely than Barack Obama solving the economic crisis, ending world hunger, destroying terrorism, and building a better mouse trap all before the Pacers lose again tonight in San Antonio.

nerveghost
01-20-2009, 02:51 PM
going 8-1 against group c is too optimistic. 5-4 at the most

count55
01-20-2009, 02:57 PM
As to reaching .500, we have a problem identifying the "should" wins. We've beaten and/or competed with Boston, LA, NO, and Houston, but lost to Char, GS, and the Clips. We've lost nailbiters to teams like NO, LAL, and Orl, but then barely squeaked by Sac's & NYK's. It's hard to put anything definitively in the win column.

I doubt we'll reach .500, but if we can be at 20 wins at the end of this month (20-28), I'll think we still have a shot with favorable February & March schedules (SoS in the .460's). To get to 20 wins, we'd have to win the rest of our home games this month.

Phree Refill
01-20-2009, 03:04 PM
going 8-1 against group c is too optimistic. 5-4 at the most

At this point in the season I would say that 5-4 probably would be realistic but looking at the final 4 weeks of the schedule we play Charlotte once, Chicago twice, and Milwaukee once. By the last 4 weeks of the season there should be a pretty well defined line between who has a chance at the post season and who is lottery bound. If one, two, or all three of those teams are lottery bound then we may be able to catch them at a time where they are resting their starters and tanking for a draft pick.

Unclebuck
01-20-2009, 03:39 PM
The schedule is incredibly easy the rest of the way. I always look at the tough road games. And after tonight they have one game at Orlando and one at Boston. Really that is it. I can't remember a schedule that is so lopsided. They have one short west coast trip to play Clips, Kings and a toughy at Portland. No more games in Texas. If they can improve their play by 5% (whatever that means) and win 50% of the close ones - I see no reason at all that they cannot go 23-18 or 22-19

xtacy
01-20-2009, 04:05 PM
the problem is that we have an inconsistent team that makes way too many mistakes. when this is the case you can't be sure about almost any games. this team can lose to kings,grizzlies,wolves even thunder or wizards and i definately wouldn't be surprised.

to get to .500 we should also be able to win some extra games like the hornets game. normally we would lose to them but with west and chandler out and cp3's foul trouble we should win that game. but we couldn't.

larry
01-20-2009, 07:03 PM
the problem is that we have an inconsistent team that makes way too many mistakes. when this is the case you can't be sure about almost any games. this team can lose to kings,grizzlies,wolves even thunder or wizards and i definately wouldn't be surprised.

to get to .500 we should also be able to win some extra games like the hornets game. normally we would lose to them but with west and chandler out and cp3's foul trouble we should win that game. but we couldn't.

Yeah I agree with you. We play teams like the Lakers down to the wire & win. We looked pretty good against the Hornets. This team plays better than you would think against upper level teams. They have letdowns which is a trait of a young team. I see a good future for us starting now though

I guessed 41 wins, but that will be tough reading the schedule. Who really knows though? I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

Naptown_Seth
01-20-2009, 07:10 PM
Hopefully one thing we all agree upon is that even if maybe you can see a path to .500 it would be a monster turnaround to actually follow that path. I'm ready to appreciate it, but I'm guessing I'll have to settle for something a little less ambitious to be happy about.

My reason is what Count mentioned, I don't think you can really count on any wins or losses with this group based on opponent. It's almost more about what the Pacers are from night to night than the teams they play. They can make any team look good or bad.


My goal for the team is to trade their worthless pick in this draft ASAP. Top 5, maybe, but after that you are going to need teams to make huge mistakes to avoid a non-factor pick. And I feel this way no matter how they finish because realistically they aren't going to lose enough to fall into a top 5 range pick.

Phree Refill
01-21-2009, 08:30 AM
As was to be expected, we lost to the Spurs last night. I had figured that we would lose both our matchups to the Spurs so this doesn't "ruin" the path I have laid out for us to reach .500.

As it stands we are...

0-0 against Group A (6-4)
0-1 against Group B (12-10)
0-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Shade
01-21-2009, 01:08 PM
If we beat the teams we're supposed to beat (the teams currently below us in the standings), then we will finish 8-32 for a 23-59 season.

Do I think we'll finish that poorly? No. But I also think that 41-41 is wildy optimistic.

30-52 seems about right.

BRushWithDeath
01-21-2009, 01:24 PM
If we win 35 I'd be shocked.

The safe odds on a .500 finish is roughly 6,248,658,142,265 to 1.

Roaming Gnome
01-21-2009, 04:48 PM
As much as I want to believe... I have a hard time feeling we are suppose to beat anyone that's winning the same amount of games or a couple more. I remember hearing this same stuff when we went into that 11 game stretch in December that kicked off with Milwaukee. The schedule paned out for a bit with lighter competition, yet we went 5-6 with a 4 game losing streak. I know that we were injured, but such is life in the NBA.

The bottom line is, we are not a good team. When you are a bad team, you don't get to look at the schedule circling the patsies of the league. Other teams are doing that for you.

As Bill says, "You are what your record is, period!" With that said... I find it hard to rationally look ahead at the schedule and say we are going to be better then what we currently are.

Unclebuck
01-21-2009, 04:56 PM
As much as I want to believe... I have a hard time feeling we are suppose to beat anyone that's winning the same amount of games or a couple more. I remember hearing this same stuff when we went into that 11 game stretch in December that kicked off with Milwaukee. The schedule paned out for a bit with lighter competition, yet we went 5-6 with a 4 game losing streak. I know that we were injured, but such is life in the NBA.

The bottom line is, we are not a good team. When you are a bad team, you don't get to look at the schedule circling the patsies of the league. Other teams are doing that for you.

As Bill says, "You are what your record is, period!" With that said... I find it hard to rationally look ahead at the schedule and say we are going to be better then what we currently are.

True - but I would rather play the T-Wolves at Conseco than the Lakers in LA. Does that guarantee we will beat the T-Wolves - No. But if we play Magic, Celtics, Lakers, Cavs and the Celtics again (which we did the first week of December) we might win 1 games. But if we play Sixers, Bobcats, T-Wolves, Bulls, Knicks, Grizzlies in a row which we do in mid March - at worst we'll go 3-3. 3-3 is better than 1-4.

Roaming Gnome
01-21-2009, 05:07 PM
True - but I would rather play the T-Wolves at Conseco than the Lakers in LA. Does that guarantee we will beat the T-Wolves - No. But if we play Magic, Celtics, Lakers, Cavs and the Celtics again (which we did the first week of December) we might win 1 games. But if we play Sixers, Bobcats, T-Wolves, Bulls, Knicks, Grizzlies in a row which we do in mid March - at worst we'll go 3-3. 3-3 is better than 1-4.

Unless my point makes no sense.. I think you missed it.

I just can't expect us to beat anyone... I feel that it's just as easy for us to go 2-4 or 1-5 over that stretch as it is for us to go 3-3 or over .500 against that stretch of teams.

Unclebuck
01-21-2009, 05:27 PM
[/b]

Unless my point makes no sense.. I think you missed it.

I just can't expect us to beat anyone... I feel that it's just as easy for us to go 2-4 or 1-5 over that stretch as it is for us to go 3-3 or over .500 against that stretch of teams.

No I got your point and sure this team can lose to any team no matter how bad. But if you are talking about an extended stretch of games chances are much greater that we'll beat the T-Wolves, Clips, Bobcats.....than beating the Celts, Cavs, Lakers, Magic.

I guess we disagree

Alabama-Redneck
01-21-2009, 10:41 PM
[/b]

Unless my point makes no sense.. I think you missed it.

I just can't expect us to beat anyone... I feel that it's just as easy for us to go 2-4 or 1-5 over that stretch as it is for us to go 3-3 or over .500 against that stretch of teams.

Not to be argumentative, I understand your point.

What I do not understand is "if you expect the Pacers to get beat" why do you get so upset when they do ?? :confused:

:cool:

Roaming Gnome
01-21-2009, 11:21 PM
Not to be argumentative, I understand your point.

What I do not understand is "if you expect the Pacers to get beat" why do you get so upset when they do ?? :confused:

:cool:

I didn't realize I got "noticeably" upset over our losses on this board. I know that I've been frustrated over somethings while we are losing, but I don't think I've been upset over losing like you're suggesting.

Coming into this year, my expectations were as low as they've ever been for this team because I truly expected this year to be treated as a rebuilding year from the coaching staff up to ownership. I'm not upset over losses in a rebuilding effort, I'm upset over the path chosen to develop our youth. I'm upset that this coaching staff continues to attempt to shove this square peg thru the round hole that is considered our defensive system. I won't blame the system, like UB says, but it gets hard not to notice this system isn't working for the players that we have.

I'll end this rant and just say that I think your wrong if you think I'm getting upset over losing games. That's not why I'm upset. Rebuilds lose games.

Alabama-Redneck
01-22-2009, 04:54 AM
I didn't realize I got "noticeably" upset over our losses on this board. I know that I've been frustrated over somethings while we are losing, but I don't think I've been upset over losing like you're suggesting.

Coming into this year, my expectations were as low as they've ever been for this team because I truly expected this year to be treated as a rebuilding year from the coaching staff up to ownership. I'm not upset over losses in a rebuilding effort, I'm upset over the path chosen to develop our youth. I'm upset that this coaching staff continues to attempt to shove this square peg thru the round hole that is considered our defensive system. I won't blame the system, like UB says, but it gets hard not to notice this system isn't working for the players that we have.

I'll end this rant and just say that I think your wrong if you think I'm getting upset over losing games. That's not why I'm upset. Rebuilds lose games.

Okay, I understand your position now.

:cool:

NapTonius Monk
01-22-2009, 11:44 AM
I think the path to develop our young players isn't necessarily to force feed them minutes, which I'm fine with. I think the Aaron Rogers approach works best. Don't just hand them the reigns, but make them want it, and earn it. They'll be better for it in the long run. I think this year is about what you'd expect, with the exception of how inexplicably bad they've been on defense.

BRushWithDeath
01-22-2009, 11:48 AM
I think the path to develop our young players isn't necessarily to force feed them minutes, which I'm fine with. I think the Aaron Rogers approach works best. Don't just hand them the reigns, but make them want it, and earn it. They'll be better for it in the long run. I think this year is about what you'd expect, with the exception of how inexplicably bad they've been on defense.

That's fine in the NFL were they play once a week and practice 4 days a week. In the NBA a team is lucky to get 4 practices a month. Young players have to play in this league.

Jonathan
01-22-2009, 12:03 PM
It will be very interesting to see what the Raptors do down the stretch. They are not in the playoffs right now. Do they tank for a better draft pick or make a trade and get into the playoffs.

Unclebuck
01-22-2009, 12:16 PM
I think the path to develop our young players isn't necessarily to force feed them minutes, which I'm fine with. I think the Aaron Rogers approach works best. Don't just hand them the reigns, but make them want it, and earn it. They'll be better for it in the long run. I think this year is about what you'd expect, with the exception of how inexplicably bad they've been on defense.

Very well said

Kstat
01-22-2009, 12:51 PM
how did Aaron Rodgers "earn" the reigns? Exactly who was his competition this year?

Suaveness
01-22-2009, 01:17 PM
I think it's more that they watch and learn how the game is played before they can make a contribution. I think that methodology works for some at the QB level, but I think in the NBA, playing is more valuable than not. At least a little time per game. Of course, the players have to be willing to learn and trying to improve rather than going through the motions.

Phree Refill
01-25-2009, 12:21 PM
With the win over that Rockets, that gets us off to a good start to get to the 6-4 mark I listed for us for group A. Let's see if we can come up with a win tonight against the Bobcats.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
0-1 against Group B (12-10)
0-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Phree Refill
01-26-2009, 08:31 AM
I was very glad to see we pulled out a close game against Charlotte last night. It was a great win for us. Only 7 more victories to go for group C! Up next is Orlando and as I stated before, it would be no shock at all if we lose to them. I accounted for it though so a loss to the Magic won't ruin our chances of finishing .500

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
0-1 against Group B (12-10)
1-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Putnam
01-26-2009, 09:54 AM
Keep this up, Phree.

I'm pulling for you!

Peter_sixtyftsixin
01-26-2009, 11:25 AM
I enjoy this thread, I also thought categorizing the teams in groups makes it really easy to discuss.

Anthem
01-26-2009, 11:29 AM
Yeah, this is cool. Come April I do a magic number thread, but this is a really workable way to do things in the meantime, when Magic number threads are a pain.

Phree Refill
01-28-2009, 09:00 AM
The Magic killed us last night. I was expecting a loss but not one like that. I thought we'd at least put up some kind of a fight. A loss is a loss though and it drops our Group B record to 0-2. The group B portion of our schedule was undoubtedly the hardest and we won't have an "easy" game in that group until New York saturday. Let's see if we can have our vengeance from the blowout loss to the Magic on the Bucks tonight.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
0-2 against Group B (12-10)
1-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

naptownmenace
01-28-2009, 10:20 AM
Great thread. This shows that there's still a chance. Orlando might be one of the most balanced teams in the league defensively and offensively, so it was no surprise to me that they ran us out of the gym.

Phree Refill
01-29-2009, 08:57 AM
Very nice victory last night especialy without Granger. I was at the game and the all you could eat and drink was awesome. I thought we were going to cruise to a victory but then I forgot that we are the Pacers and we like to make every game interesting.... Oh well. That gets us off to a fantastic start for group C. This weekend will be a big indicator of wether or not we have a chance to hit the group B goal because we play both New York and Miami.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
0-2 against Group B (12-10)
2-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

NuffSaid
01-29-2009, 11:54 AM
So far, the Pacers are 3-2 per Refill's playoffs push schedule. And just as a reminder so folks will know what teams are in which group:

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L), Miami, New York, Minnesota, Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland, and Atlanta

0-2 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W), and Milwaukee(1W)

2-0 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
01-29-2009, 02:42 PM
Thanks for the in depth update Nuff. I just wanted to add that the next 7 games we play are ALL against Group B opponents. Come all-star break we should have a very good feel for whether or not we can get to the 12-10 mark I believe we must reach for that group.

oh and...

So far, the Pacers are 3-2 per Refill's playoffs push schedule.

Not neccesarrily a "playoff push" but just a breakdown of what it will take to reach .500 (although it is my personal opinion that it will take a record at, or very close to .500 in order to make the playoffs this year in the East) ...so in a way yes it's a "playoff push schedule" but technically no. ;)

Phree Refill
01-30-2009, 10:31 PM
Our win over the Heat was very impressive. I don't see why we couldn't do that night in and night out. With the victory comes our first Group B win. Hopefully we can do the same tomorrow night against New York to bring our Group B record back even.


As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
1-2 against Group B (12-10)
2-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Phree Refill
02-02-2009, 08:39 AM
With a loss to the Knicks it was my first miscue on the schedule predictions. I originally thought that we would win both of our contests against the Knicks but now it appears just winning one will be tough as our next (and last) game against them is on their home floor. This means we will have to win a game against a different team that I originally predicted we would lose to. So far our Group B record is pretty dismal. We'll have a chance to redeem ourselves in the next five games though.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
1-3 against Group B (12-10)
2-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

NuffSaid
02-02-2009, 07:13 PM
Phree,

I kinda figured the Pacers would have a tough time going up against most of the Group B teams as at least seven of them are currently in the playoff picture.

Sidenote: Darn that Al Harrington. Why didn't he play that way when he was with us? He always seems to get a head of steam when playing against the Pacers, he and Anthony Johnson both. :censored:

BRushWithDeath
02-02-2009, 07:17 PM
Sidenote: Darn that Al Harrington. Why didn't he play that way when he was with us? He always seems to get a head of steam when playing against the Pacers, he and Anthony Johnson both. :censored:

When they were playing for us they didn't get a chance to play against the Pacers defense.

BRushWithDeath
02-04-2009, 12:55 AM
The .500 finish is slightly less likely than Barack Obama solving the economic crisis, ending world hunger, destroying terrorism, and building a better mouse trap all before the Pacers lose again tonight in San Antonio.

Surely, after this home loss to Minnesota people will accept my earlier statement.

(Which was on inauguration day if that wasn't obvious.)

Phree Refill
02-04-2009, 08:42 AM
The home loss to the Wolves certainly did suck. That brought me to my second inacurate prediction in as many games. This means that if we were to still finish .500 by the path I laid out then we will have to beat two teams now that I had not projected us to beat. We have Philly tomorrow and I originally said that we'd split the two games remaining agaisnt them this year. If we could pick up a win in their place tomorrow then we could make up some ground with another win over them after the all star break on our home floor.

We have 7 more Group B games just in this month alone so considering that we can only lose 6 more games in that group, whatever our Group B record looks like at the end of the month will be a pretty good indication of wether or not we can finish .500

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
1-4 against Group B (12-10)
2-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

NuffSaid
02-04-2009, 11:06 AM
Group B is killing us!

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland, and Atlanta

1-4 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W), and Milwaukee(1W)

2-0 against Group C (8-1)

Overall record: 4-4. Not bad, but those two loses to NY and Minny will probably come back to hurt the Pacers before too long. As Phree stated, the Pacers will have to makeup some ground by winning two of the harder games most likely in Group A or get a sweep out of Group C.

Win the games you're suppose to win!!

Knucklehead Warrior
02-04-2009, 11:33 AM
It's not my intention to take anything away from you're doing here. I think you've got a pretty good handle on it.

I've been looking at a little different stat which may shed more light on this playoff run. In the last 10 games, the Pacers are 5-5 for .500. The 4 teams that we have to pass to get into the playoffs are a collective 17-23 for .425.

We're making progress. :dance:

NuffSaid
02-04-2009, 06:02 PM
Knucklehead,

You sure you got the numbers right? I get 22-28 (eff. 02/04/09). Still, the following is what I posted in the "We would be a dangerous playoff team (http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-default/showthread.php?p=840382#post840382)" thread:


The first hurtle is getting a good 7 to 11 game winning streak going which IS possible at this point in their schedule. Beginning today and going on through February 25, the Pacers will play 17 games. Among them, they'll face five teams at or above .500: Magic (X2), Cleveland, Celtics, Heat and 76ers. Of these five teams, only three truly poses a real problem for them: Magic (X2), Cleveland, Celtics. If they can move up the ranks by going 12-5, they could find themselve as high as the 6th seed if things go their way. After February 25, their schedule gets easier but they'll still face a tough matchup here or there. Still, I like their chances of getting into the playoff hunt. They'll just have to keep playing as tough as they've been playing and hopefully they'll turn the corner and earn a playoff spot outright. I like their odds which are very good as long as they stay healthy and use their depth to their advantage.

The Heat have a rather easy schedule the rest of the way. Most of their games are at home against EC teams.

The 76ers have it tough beginning late February where most of their games will be on the road.

The Bucks will play many games at home the rest of the way, but they'll also face at least 19 teams that are at or above .500 and those games are spread out throughout the rest of their schedule. I doubt they'll move up in the standings; it's very likely the Bucks will fall...maybe even out of the playoff picture all together.

The Nets are hit or miss. March will be a tough month for them. Not only do they play 9 games on the road, they'll also face 9 teams above .500 and at least 6 WC teams - 4 of which are above .500. They may not sniff the post season and if not March will be the reason why.

The Bobcats...poor Bobcats...24 road games, 15 at home...several back-to-back games...things don't look good for this team at all the rest of the way. But they made a decent trade that now focuses more on interior defense. They could pull off a few surprises, but I doubt they'll move into the playoff picture; their schedule from here on out is just too tough, IMO.

The Knicks could move up, but it's going to be difficult mostly because they have 3 sets of road games (3 games minimum). The teams they will face in early February/late March will challenge them. I doubt they have what it takes to steal enough of those games to move up the ranks.

The Bulls, starting today, begin a 7-game road trip. Their playoff hopes may very much hinge on what they do during this period and through February. After that, their schedule does get lighter, but they still face a few +.500 teams the rest of the way. It's likely they won't make the post season this year.

For the Raptors, February and early March will be tough for them. They'll play atleast 12 teams that are above .500. If they can go over .500 through mid-March, they have a chance to gain some ground the rest of the season because most of their remaining games from that point are against teams with losing records.

And that's my 2-cents worth. My boyz could get to the post season. They'll have to start tonight and earn their way in. Now, if they can get to the 6th seed, they'll likely face the Magic which is 50/50 in a 7-game series. If the Pistons continue to struggle or the Heat hit a rough spot and fall, there's an outside chance they could get the 5th seed. You just never know. Regardless, it's up to the Pacers to get it together and seize the moment the rest of the way.
Based on team results to date, I'd say each team including the Pacers, are performing pretty much as I expected.

Kaufman
02-04-2009, 06:38 PM
18-22 equals 45%, or .45.

Knucklehead Warrior
02-05-2009, 12:53 AM
Knucklehead,

You sure you got the numbers right? I get 22-28 (eff. 02/04/09).

Yeah, you're right, it's FIVE teams, not 4
22-28 is .440, still lower than .500.
Progress, but is it fast enough?

Phree Refill
02-06-2009, 09:14 AM
It would have been nice to pick up that win last night but ultimately it wasn't neccesary by my predictions. I originally said we would split our remaining games with Philly. All that loss means is that we MUST beat them on our home floor when we play them again right after the all star break. And with the loss last night it means we will have to make up ground through a different opponent. We'll have our first chance to do so tonight against the Magic. I predicted we would lose both games to the Magic. We lost the first one already and now we have them without J. Nelson. I don't know if it will be enough of a difference for us to pull out a win but it should be a great opportunity for us to make up ground on our home floor.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
1-5 against Group B (12-10)
2-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

NuffSaid
02-06-2009, 01:53 PM
Phree,

I hope you don't mind, but I prefer to actually see how we're doing against each team.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B* (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L), Washington, Cleveland, and Atlanta

1-5 against Group B (12-10)

*This group is killing us!

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W), and Milwaukee(1W)

2-0 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
02-06-2009, 10:42 PM
We finally wrestled one back tonight. I predicted we'd lose both games to the Magic. With a win tongiht it erases one of the losses to the Knicks and the Wolves. So long as we can win the other games I've laid out, all we have to do is pick up one more game somewhere.


As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
2-5 against Group B (12-10)
2-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

And by special request for Nuffsaid.... ;)

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L), Washington, Cleveland, and Atlanta

2-5 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W), and Milwaukee(1W)

2-0 against Group C (8-1)

NuffSaid
02-07-2009, 03:39 PM
Thanks, Phree. :)

I hope we're able to steal one against the Cavs. I think we can beat them. The keys to the win IMO will be to establish a post presence which I hope Hibbert, Foster, and Rasho are able to do, and to guard everyone else but limit LeBron's effectiveness particularly his ability to distribute the ball to his teammates. You slow him down, i.e., keep his asst numbers down and keep him out of the paint as much as possible, then you can beat the Cavs. It's gonna be a tough battle, but I think the Pacers can do it.

But that's looking too far ahead. Let's get past the Wizards and Bucks first.

Good win against the Magic. My boyz needed that one bad!

Phree Refill
02-08-2009, 10:24 AM
I'm deeming tonights game against the Wizards a MUST WIN. Thats right, a MUST WIN. If we want to even have a chance at making the playoffs or finishing .500 I just don't see how we can do it without this game tonight. It will be tough enough to claw back the game that we lost to the Wolves let alone if we were to lose to one of the worst teams in the league tonight.

DEEman
02-08-2009, 01:52 PM
NJ is in the 8 seat now. We are 4 games behind them. They are playing @ Orlando tonight. And than against the Spurs, @Houston and @Dallas. Hopefully they loose some of those 4 to keep our spirit alive.

BRushWithDeath
02-08-2009, 04:16 PM
NJ is in the 8 seat now. We are 4 games behind them. They are playing @ Orlando tonight. And than against the Spurs, @Houston and @Dallas. Hopefully they loose some of those 4 to keep our spirit alive.

We're also behind Milwaukee, Chicago, and New York. We've got one more win than Charlotte and Toronto. Not only do we need to start playing consistently better, we need to other teams to start playing consistently worse.

As for tonight being a must win, I agree. The Wizards are the worst team in the league. You have to win those games.

Justin Tyme
02-08-2009, 07:01 PM
The Pacers need to win 16 games out of the last 31, which is a frog hair better than .500, to just match last seasons record of 36 wins. 36 wins isn't going to get the Pacers into the playoffs.

Roaming Gnome
02-08-2009, 09:48 PM
:computer:

Shade
02-08-2009, 09:51 PM
http://planetaugsburg.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/thats-all-folks.jpg

Phree Refill
02-09-2009, 09:41 AM
http://planetaugsburg.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/thats-all-folks.jpg

Pretty much...... As was stated before, you can't assume this team will beat anyone. But i'm going to finish what I started. Who knows, maybe the all star break will give our team the time it needs to get on the right track. But as far as I'm concerned, if Dunleavy's knee becomes an issue again then I think it's time to sit him for the season so as not to jeapardize next season.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
2-6 against Group B (12-10)
2-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L), Washington (1L), Cleveland, and Atlanta

2-6 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W), and Milwaukee(1W)

2-0 against Group C (8-1)

BKK
02-09-2009, 09:51 AM
wow getting out of Group B at 12-10 will be veeeeery difficult... 2 vs Cavs, Hawks and Blazers not to mention 1 vs SA and Philly. Those losses vs Knicks and Wolves really killed us. Of course we'll still probably pull some upsets but if history repeats itself those will be cancelled by losses like the last one vs Washington. Dun and Quis out won't help either... :(

i still want to believe but man this does not look bright. IMO making the playoffs is not totally out of consideration yet but finishing at .500 will be a tough challenge

pwee31
02-11-2009, 02:08 AM
I know some of you are taking the Jim Mora approach when speaking about the playoffs, but after the win tonight against the Cavs, the Pacers are only 3 1/2 games back of the 8th seed, and can that down to 2 1/2 with a win over the Bucks tomorrow.

Not bad shape for a late run after the break. We all remember what happened with the Golden St. trade with us that year. And we have beaten the top teams in the East at least one game.

Things could get interesting

Roaming Gnome
02-11-2009, 02:26 AM
Almost feels like a good win against the Cavs nearly makes up for putting that "floater" against the Wiz kids.

Phree Refill
02-11-2009, 08:49 AM
Soooo...... Anyone got his team figured out yet? Our last three games look like this: win versus the Magic, loss to the Wizards, win versus the Cavs. Perfectly logical. We somehow grabbed back another game to make up for the Timberwolves loss. Had we not of blown one to the Wizards we would have been right back on track for the .500 finish. Regardless I am not going to get my hopes up because we do play the Bucks tonight and I have a feeling it will be very similar to the Wizards game sunday. Except instead of the Butler and Jamison show, this time it will be the Sessions and Villanueva show. Charlie V always lights us up for like 25-30 every game and Sessions has stepped up since Redd went down.

On a side note, I just realized that we are set up for failure in regards to my predictions because if we did want to have a chance to reach my .500 goal, that means we can not lose another game until we play Boston on the 27th. I highly doubt we win the next seven games in a row starting tonight versus the bucks.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
3-6 against Group B (12-10)
2-0 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

3-6 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W), and Milwaukee(1W)

2-0 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
02-12-2009, 08:26 AM
As was to be expected from this team we followed our Cleveland victory up with a loss to the Bucks. It would have been nice to get that win and head into the break on a nice uptick but instead we head into the break with our heads down. Boy if we could get into the playoffs maybe we would be a dangerous team cause we only beat the best and lose to the worst.

I did allot for one loss in Group C so this isn't all devastating but it requires we go 6-0 the rest of the way for Group C

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
3-6 against Group B (12-10)
2-1 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

3-6 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

2-1 against Group C (8-1)

Einstein
02-12-2009, 12:00 PM
I think .500 or playoffs is possible, with a healthy team. I think Daniels being out has really hurt. Dunleavy going out hurts as well. Then there is Granger's knee. The team can't be disintegrating while its trying to make this run.

naptownmenace
02-12-2009, 12:42 PM
Boy if we could get into the playoffs maybe we would be a dangerous team cause we only beat the best and lose to the worst.


Well, it's true they play the best teams very well but considering Milwaukee has a better record than the Pacers, are currently in a playoff spot, and have beaten the Pacers twice I don't consider this a loss to one of those worse teams.

The Pacers are a horrible road team and last night was just further proof. They won't make it back to .500 because I think they will only win one third of their remaining road games at best. I think 35 wins is a more reasonable goal.

Barring a major trade, we're getting close to the point where we just start focusing on developing our youth and thinking about next year.

NuffSaid
02-12-2009, 01:21 PM
I'm trying to stay optimistic, I really am, but seeing this team win against the best and then lose to the worst is just so disheartening. At this point, I'm just counting loses; 7 more and they're done.

Phree Refill
02-18-2009, 08:18 AM
It was nice to see us win last night right out of the gates after the All Star break. Unfortunately for the Pacers the next 5 games are basically must wins considering all 5 are agaisnt sub .500 teams. Charlotte will be VERY tough tonight on their home floor.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
4-6 against Group B (12-10)
2-1 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

4-6 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

2-1 against Group C (8-1)

bellisimo
02-18-2009, 08:20 AM
well the last 14 games we've been .500...does that count as finishing the rest of the season .500? :D

Phree Refill
02-19-2009, 08:13 AM
The charlotte loss makes it impossible to reach our Group C goal and if Granger will be out for any amount of time then I would say that it's time to play the rookies.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
4-6 against Group B (12-10)
2-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

4-6 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

2-2 against Group C (8-1)

RaptorsFan
02-19-2009, 11:26 AM
This analysis = epic fail

count55
02-19-2009, 11:34 AM
This analysis = epic fail

Actually, as an analysis, it served its purpose well. It was meant to lay out a rational road map from where the Pacers were then to .500. It was moderately optimistic at the time, but it was very sound on it's merits.

That the Pacers are not going to make it represents a failure on their part, and does not reflect on this quality or success analysis. It was not this analysis' job to get the Pacers to .500. It was this analysis' job to say how they might get there.

It succeeded in that goal, where the Pacers failed in their attempt.

naptownmenace
02-19-2009, 11:37 AM
This analysis = epic fail

This quote = epic fail

:D

RaptorsFan
02-19-2009, 11:39 AM
Actually, as an analysis, it served its purpose well. It was meant to lay out a rational road map from where the Pacers were then to .500. It was moderately optimistic at the time, but it was very sound on it's merits.

That the Pacers are not going to make it represents a failure on their part, and does not reflect on this quality or success analysis. It was not this analysis' job to get the Pacers to .500. It was this analysis' job to say how they might get there.

It succeeded in that goal, where the Pacers failed in their attempt.

Ok, point taken, pure homerism analysis was dead on, the pacers were "on pace" to go .500. My bad, my analysis says the Pacers wont make the playoffs, and neither will the raptors :(

NuffSaid
02-19-2009, 04:15 PM
Ok, point taken, pure homerism analysis was dead on, the pacers were "on pace" to go .500. My bad, my analysis says the Pacers wont make the playoffs, and neither will the raptors :(
6 more loses and sad to say, but your analysis will be confirmed. :(

Phree Refill
02-22-2009, 11:32 AM
This analysis = epic fail

:laugh: So I was mildy optimistic..... ok very optimistic. At least we showed friday that even with our depleted team we can still compete and be interesting to watch. The injuries are probably a blessing in disguise because it will finaly force the rookies to step in and contribute. As i'm sure many of you have started doing, I'm starting to look towards next season and see where we can improve. Even though this analysis most likely won't even come close, I'm going to finish it just for sh*ts and giggles.
Maybe our young players can show a lot of improvement with our key players out. That will be a victory in itself.


As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
5-6 against Group B (12-10)
2-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-6 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago, Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

2-2 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
02-22-2009, 04:38 PM
Another nice win without two of our best players today. Tomorrow will be a tough one however. We will see just how our rookies play in a pressure situation against NY. I'm expecting Harrington to drop about 40 on us.

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
5-6 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(1L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-6 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
02-24-2009, 08:17 AM
I was surprised that without Granger, Dunleavy, and Ford we were even able to score 119 points. Almost sneaked one out. JOB i thought did a nice job up until the final minute. That inbounds play with the score tied with 30 seconds on the clock was horrendous. I would asume that if it doesn't work the first time then you wouldn't run it a second time. I guess i was wrong. Foster should not have been inbounding that ball. As soon as the Ref blew his whistle and handed Jeff the ball i could tell it was gonna be a turnover. He looked scared and completely indecisive. The most frustrating part is the exact same thing happened no more than 60 seconds earlier and we had to call a timeout. We still had a 20 second timeout left. Jeff shoulda just called yet another timeout and JOB should have came up with a different play. :mad: .......

As it stands we are:

1-0 against Group A (6-4)
5-7 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

1-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-7 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

DisplacedKnick
02-24-2009, 09:13 AM
I'm going to break in here to offer kudos to Phree Refill for this thread. I didn't read it when it originally came up because I thought it would be another wild-eyed crazily optimistic "we shall prevail because The Gods are With us even though we suck" post. I was very wrong - some of it was mildly optimistic but it's a nice analysis and I've enjoyed reading through it.

Well done. :applaud:

count55
02-24-2009, 09:47 AM
I was surprised that without Granger, Dunleavy, and Ford we were even able to score 119 points. Almost sneaked one out. JOB i thought did a nice job up until the final minute. That inbounds play with the score tied with 30 seconds on the clock was horrendous. I would asume that if it doesn't work the first time then you wouldn't run it a second time. I guess i was wrong. Foster should not have been inbounding that ball. As soon as the Ref blew his whistle and handed Jeff the ball i could tell it was gonna be a turnover. He looked scared and completely indecisive. The most frustrating part is the exact same thing happened no more than 60 seconds earlier and we had to call a timeout. We still had a 20 second timeout left. Jeff shoulda just called yet another timeout and JOB should have came up with a different play. :mad: .......


You should read the Star article this morning. O'Brien bears some responsibility for the play not being understood clearly, but he basically notes that Jack didn't make the right cut, and that Foster should have called a time out...or basically what you just said.


I'm going to break in here to offer kudos to Phree Refill for this thread. I didn't read it when it originally came up because I thought it would be another wild-eyed crazily optimistic "we shall prevail because The Gods are With us even though we suck" post. I was very wrong - some of it was mildly optimistic but it's a nice analysis and I've enjoyed reading through it.

Well done. :applaud:

And this is why this analysis is not an Epic Fail.

NuffSaid
02-24-2009, 12:15 PM
For me, it's been interesting to see if Phree's predictions would even come close, let alone if he'd be dead on. So far, it would seem he's been fairly on the mark. And while for him this may have the earmarks of a triumph, it's also very disappointing that my team continues to blow opportunities to move ahead.

I think the loss-count is now down to 6 games before the Pacers lose any chance of staying at or above .500. If this team does makes it to the post-season, as with the last two seasons, they won't make it on their own. They'll need lots of help from other teams. Good luck with that....:(

Lottery, here they come...

Jonathan
02-24-2009, 01:22 PM
Last I looked Detroit was 2-8 in their last ten games. They might miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not. I believe the Bucks & New York are not going to tank. New Jersey plays a difficult schedule. The Pacers & Charlotte just do not have the horses to make a push. I believe Toronto & Chicago will tank.

Phree Refill
02-24-2009, 10:44 PM
It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not.

Jonathan makes a really good point. If you look deep into the schedule the reality is, if we are still competitive and in the playoff hunt towards the end of the year, there is a chance we can pick up some games we shouldn't have won originally. For example, we play Cleveland the second to last game of the year. I'm pretty sure their playoff seeding will be determined already by then so they will most likely be resting their starters.

A deeper look reveals that our last five games are against toronto, atlanta, detroit, cleveland, and milwuakee in that order. I have a feeling only milwaukee will actually have anything to play for at that point in the schedule (if they need that last game to hold on to the 8th seed). Toronto could very likely be tanking by then and the other three quite possibly could already have their playoff seed set in stone with no chance to improve or fall in the standings. So we very well could finish the season on a winning streak.... IF by then we haven't played our way out of the playoff picture. Hell there is a pretty good chance that by then we will be "tanking". Although if you look at the schedule from last year we are 1 game better right now than we were at this point then.

MyFavMartin
02-24-2009, 11:33 PM
Last I looked Detroit was 2-8 in their last ten games. They might miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not. I believe the Bucks & New York are not going to tank. New Jersey plays a difficult schedule. The Pacers & Charlotte just do not have the horses to make a push. I believe Toronto & Chicago will tank.

Agree that the Bucks won't tank because Skiles won't let them.

Also agree on the NY and Toronto assessment.

Don't think Chicago's trades will improve their FC enough?

Detroit is anybody's guess. Current results indicate AI's not a team player. That's too bad as he has too much talent to waste it like this. He should be the 6th man and have Rip start.

Phree Refill
02-26-2009, 09:01 AM
The Memphis win gets us off to a good start on Group A in this stretch of the schedule where we 6 of 7 games are against Group A opponents. The only non Group A opponent is Portland.

It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that. However if the Pacers somehow pulled out a win Friday with our top 2 scorers out, I would think that it would be a huge confidence booster for our guys and may be just what they need to finish the season out on a hot streak.

Predicting a loss for Friday, we will have just 5 more games that we can lose the rest of the season in order to finish .500

As it stands we are:

2-0 against Group A (6-4)
5-7 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

2-0 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-7 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

Putnam
02-26-2009, 09:33 AM
It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that.

Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.

PaceBalls
02-26-2009, 09:38 AM
Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.

But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.

Phree Refill
02-26-2009, 10:12 AM
But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.

This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.

BillS
02-26-2009, 11:28 AM
This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.

I disagree. I think a team gets to a point - particularly playing against adversity - where a single loss doesn't change how they feel about themselves because they really have no other choice.

The inconsistency on the team level isn't about confidence, it is about the small things that they do well one night and don't do well another night. That is the mark of wither a young team or a team that just isn't capable of going to the next level. As made up right now considering injuries and illnesses, this team is not able to go to the next level.

NuffSaid
02-26-2009, 11:29 AM
It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that.


Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.


But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.


This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.
The above dialog is the perfect sagway to comments Travis Deiner made in his latest blog entry (http://my.nba.com/forum.jspa?forumID=300017877) (dated 02/25/09).

"What helps get you through the tough times is the chemistry of the team and ours is really good. For the first time in my four years in the NBA, I think everybody likes each other and everybody likes coming to work each day and being around one another. Win or lose, we handle ourselves in a professional manner.

Obviously, losing some games the way we've lost them this year, people can get frustrated and egos can start to come into play and guys can get angry but not on this team. Everyone's kept a level head whether we win or lose. It's been a good team to be around, a good staff to be around and I think eventually that's going to pay off for us.

It's frustrating when you put a lot of work into something and you don't see the results. If we were getting beat by 30 every game and not competing, we'd know we were losing because we weren't competing. But we're competing, we're playing hard, we work hard in practice, so it's frustrating that we're not winning more games. On the flip side, we know we're very close to turning it around."

I thought his words were very insightful and rather refreshing. You hear small bits and pieces of players saying that the atmosphere in the locker room has been good throughout the season, win or lose, but until Travis' blog entry you don't really believe it's true especially with all the losses the way this team has loss games. It's encouraging to read his commentary. This tells me that no matter what this group of players won't give up. They'll keep trying to learn from their mistakes and get better and make that all important playoff push. I don't think we, as fans, can ask for anything more than that. My "team spirit" has been renewed. :)

Phree Refill
02-28-2009, 12:40 PM
It was a valliant effort last night but we just couldn't quite pull it out. I know it is very inaccurate to form the following correlation but part of me can't help but think this way. Had the Celtics not signed marbury we could have won. We lost by five and marbury had 8. Take him away and we win by 3. Hopefully we can keep the strong play on the home floor going on sunday.

As it stands we are:

2-1 against Group A (6-4)
5-7 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

2-1 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-7 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

Putnam
02-28-2009, 01:15 PM
The Pacers lost. But I think you could argue that they played together, showed great poise and excellent energy. Boston didn't take that away from them.

Phree Refill
03-02-2009, 08:43 AM
Our win last night marks another victory that I had not originally anticipated. With the win over the Nuggets we are now only 2 losses in the red towards my predictions. After the loss to the Wizards on their floor earlier in the year though (a game I deemed a must win), I'm definitely very leery about our game against Sacramento tomorrow. Hopefully we can keep our momentum going and pull out another W

As it stands we are:

3-1 against Group A (6-4)
5-7 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

3-1 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-7 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

NuffSaid
03-02-2009, 12:27 PM
I was actually surprised the Pacers won yesterday against the Nuggets. The Nuggets' bigs are a bit more athletic and play more aggressive than ours, but my boyz somehow pulled off the victory.

The Pacers still haven't gained any ground on that elusive 8th seed, but hopefully they can finally win a few on the road then come back to the Fieldhouse and squeeze into the playoffs. They'll have a tough time off it these next eight games - Kings, Blazers (X2), Clippers, Jazz, Hawks, Mavs and Raptors - but I think they can go 5-3. Hopefully, that will be enough to move them to atleast the 9th position.

naptownmenace
03-02-2009, 03:27 PM
Ultimately, the common thread is that the Pacers (since the new year began) are very good at home and very bad on the road.

They're 13-2 at home since January 1st. They have 11 more home games left with 9 remaining on the road. The home games include some tough ones against some playoff level competition like Portland, San Antonio, Utah, and Dallas but the other 7 games are very winnable. Considering the Pacers have recently beat the Cavs, Magic, and Nuggets at home I think they might win 8 of those 11 home games (8-3).

Of their 9 games on the road, they only playoff/winning teams they face are Portland and Atlanta (twice). Most 6 other games are against teams that are struggling or in Tank-mode. Best case scenario, remembering that the Pacers are terrible on the road, is that the Pacers win 5 of these games (5-4).

That would mean the Pacers a record of 13-7 during the last 20 games of the season and would give them an overall record of 39-43. That might be good enough to squeak into the playoffs.

NuffSaid
03-03-2009, 01:54 PM
That would mean the Pacers a record of 13-7 during the last 20 games of the season and would give them an overall record of 39-43. That might be good enough to squeak into the playoffs.
Doubtful.

I think they need to go 15-5 the rest of the way. They'd stand a better chance of making the post-season if they ending the regular season at .500. Otherwise, they'd really be dependant on the basketball gods to give them alittle help with those teams above them falling out of the playoff picture, and I just don't see that happening (anymore than I see this team going 15-5, but stranger things have happened...:o)

Phree Refill
03-04-2009, 09:25 AM
It was a very inspiring win last night in Sacramento. One of our rare blow out victories of the season. Almost everyone that got on the floor contributed. You gotta love Deiner. That win puts us at just 2 victories away from reaching the Group A goal. A win tonight in Portland would be huge. I originally allotted for one loss to the Trailblazers so a win tonight can present a chance for us to claw back one of the two games we are behind in regards to my predictions.

As it stands we are:

4-1 against Group A (6-4)
5-7 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

4-1 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-7 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

NuffSaid
03-04-2009, 11:06 AM
Although the Kings' roster has gone through it's share of changes over the last 4 yrs, they remained a tough team to beat until recently. I had my doubts the Pacers would sustain their 20-pt lead - or atleast maintain a double-digit lead - but they answered every Kings' rally and won going away.

Very impressive victory.

Sidenote: You gotta love the Kings' announcers. They had a lot of positive things to say about the Pacers. We don't get that from many of the opposing team's PR folks. It was nice to finally hear someone give this team credit away from their homecourt.

BRushWithDeath
03-04-2009, 12:54 PM
It was nice to finally hear someone give this team credit away from their homecourt.

They haven't earned a lot of credit away from their homecourt. They've earned plenty on it.

Will Galen
03-04-2009, 02:45 PM
Iíve noticed people talking about the Pacers only being two games behind Milwaukee for the last playoff spot. However thereís a simpler barometer of where we are in relation to other teams. The lost column. We are behind five teams in that respect.

Itís simple math, we have already lost more games than anyone else. Victories wonít help us make up ground, the other teams have to lose. For instant if we win 10 in a row and NJ wins ten in a row, we havenít gained anything. We need them to lose three games.

Itís critical for us to win the games in the ĎTo playí column.

Hereís the current standings with the Pacers having 19 games left to play.

<table cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="13%">Team
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="6%">Lost
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="11%">Vs Pacers
</td> <td class="table1column4" valign="top" width="8%">To play
</td> <td class="table1column5" valign="top" width="62%">Comments
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="13%">New Jersey
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="6%">33
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="11%">1-2
</td> <td class="table1column4" valign="top" width="8%">0
</td> <td class="table1column5" valign="top" width="62%">We are three games behind NJ. However we won the season series, so we own the tie break.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="13%">Milwaukee
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="6%">34
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="11%">2-1
</td> <td class="table1column4" valign="top" width="8%">1
</td> <td class="table1column5" valign="top" width="62%">We are two games behind Milwaukee. We play them one more time.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="13%">Chicago
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="6%">34
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="11%">1-1
</td> <td class="table1column4" valign="top" width="8%">2
</td> <td class="table1column5" valign="top" width="62%">We are two games behind Chicago with two more to play. As of right now we have to win both to have the tiebreaker.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="13%">Charlotte
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="6%">35
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="11%">2-1
</td> <td class="table1column4" valign="top" width="8%">1
</td> <td class="table1column5" valign="top" width="62%">One game behind with one game yet to play against them.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="13%">New York
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="6%">35
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="11%">2-1
</td> <td class="table1column4" valign="top" width="8%">0
</td> <td class="table1column5" valign="top" width="62%">NY won season series and has the tie break. So we are really two games behind them.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="table1column1" valign="top" width="13%">Indiana
</td> <td class="table1column2" align="center" valign="top" width="6%">36
</td> <td class="table1column3" align="center" valign="top" width="11%">---
</td> <td class="table1column4" valign="top" width="8%">-
</td> <td class="table1column5" valign="top" width="62%">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Naptown_Seth
03-04-2009, 09:17 PM
And this is why this analysis is not an Epic Fail.
I agree. Fun thread to follow. Well fun in content here, crap in real world meaning. Don't believe me, how about this Group 2 result


New York(2L),
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU************************** ******
Man, that is just going to kick their chances in the ruts.


Will's right unfortunately, basically what I've said to the more optimistic posts found elsewhere. You look at typical Last 10 records and MAYBE you see 7-3 or 3-7 in the middle grounds, but mostly you see 6-4 to 4-6.

So realistically the Pacers can hope for a max gain at this point of perhaps 3-4 games on a team. That doesn't mean it can't be done, it just means it will be by the skin of their teeth if it is.


Portland - yeah Phree, I think you need them to pull that out to balance the sheet. 2 more games vs the Blazers does not bode well for the final totals vs teams in Group 2.

NuffSaid
03-04-2009, 10:36 PM
The Bucks and Nets loss tonight. So, the Pacers can move up a game oif they beat the Blazers tonight. Here's hoping.

BRushWithDeath
03-04-2009, 10:47 PM
The Bucks and Nets loss tonight. So, the Pacers can move up a game oif they beat the Blazers tonight. Here's hoping.

At least we won't lose a game on them tonight. A win is extremely unlikely. But we should get 2/3 on the road trip. That's all we could ask for.

duke dynamite
03-04-2009, 10:52 PM
At least we won't lose a game on them tonight. A win is extremely unlikely. But we should get 2/3 on the road trip. That's all we could ask for.
Given the past few games, I won't go as far as saying a win is "extremely unlikely". It may be tough, but not impossible.

Will Galen
03-04-2009, 10:56 PM
The Bucks and Nets loss tonight. So, the Pacers can move up a game oif they beat the Blazers tonight. Here's hoping.

Nets haven't lost yet. They are tied at 108 with 1:34 to go.

joeyd
03-04-2009, 11:31 PM
The Nets have a brutal schedule ahead of them in March. I think they will soon be out of the running for spot. Also, take a look at the 76ers schedule. Brutal as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they drop out of a playoff slot.

Pacers are ahead 18-10 in the first. If the Pacers hold on (admittedly a big "if"), and natural selection takes its course with the other teams, they basically control their own destiny. I believe we play the Bucks, Bulls, and Bobcats yet in pivotal games. That final game of the season could well have some meaning after all.

BRushWithDeath
03-04-2009, 11:32 PM
Given the past few games, I won't go as far as saying a win is "extremely unlikely". It may be tough, but not impossible.

We're a terrible road team. And Blazers aren't a terrible team like the Kings.

Phree Refill
03-05-2009, 08:43 AM
Tough one to swallow last night. We had a 10 point lead with 10 minutes left in the game and then thier crowd really gave them the edge. They took it to another level defensively and we were completely taken out of our game that had gotten us that 10 point lead. Deiner not playing in the second half was huge also. He came out firing and i think it would have been safe to assume he woulda been good for at least one more three throughout the course of the game.

Murphy seemed to lose his intensity after that shot to the face. I was hoping maybe it would ignite a fire under him and he'd come out tearing it up but it seemed to do the exact oposite. He looked very reluctant to do much of anything that second half when he was on the floor. I felt like if we could have taken a 10 point lead into the 4th rather than just an eight point lead that we'd be in a pretty good shape. As the 4th progressed, unfortunately my suspicion was confirmed. It was also very disheartening to just have that gut feeling that on Portland's last possesion Brandon Roy was either gonna score at the buzzer or get bailed out and be put on the line.

Regardless, I did originally allott one loss to the Blazers. This means that we MUST win our next game against them at home. This win would have been super nice to have though with the other teams ahead of us faltering. Hopefully we won't see a let down against the Clippers on saturday. We NEED that game.

As it stands we are:

4-1 against Group A (6-4)
5-8 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

4-1 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(L), Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-8 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

NuffSaid
03-05-2009, 04:29 PM
Phree,

I noticed that, too, about Murphy when he returned. He played very timid, and his shot was way off. It was like you said...like he was scared to come back and be as agressive as he was when he left during the injury time-out.

I really thought JOB would have gone back to Deiner at the Point. The kid was on fire! Big mistake by JOB not to go back to him.

I thought the refs turned a blind eye to alot of contact against the visiting team, but that's been typical w/the Pacers this year. So, that doesn't upset me as much as watching Quis and others miss their free throws in the closing minutes of the game.

Other than that, I thought my boyz played well enough to win, but Brandon Ron and Travis Outlaw just played better. Tough loss, but we're only down 2 games from that 8th seed. Hopefully after this final WC swing is over the Pacers can put together some wins and squeek into the post-season. (I doubt it, but here's hoping...:o)

Unclebuck
03-06-2009, 12:56 PM
Phree,

I noticed that, too, about Murphy when he returned. He played very timid, and his shot was way off. It was like you said...like he was scared to come back and be as agressive as he was when he left during the injury time-out.

I really thought JOB would have gone back to Deiner at the Point. The kid was on fire! Big mistake by JOB not to go back to him.



Diener was having chest pains. Turns out it was from the virus he has been suffering from, but that was not known at the time. I'm sure it scared Travis a little

MyFavMartin
03-07-2009, 12:00 AM
Nets lost and so did the Bucks. Bulls and Cats won.

MyFavMartin
03-08-2009, 02:46 AM
Another useful link for schedule analysis is Hollinger's:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

larry
03-08-2009, 02:49 AM
they can get in the playoffs...
they are 9 under so I doubt it, but it would be cool if we did!!

MyFavMartin
03-08-2009, 02:50 AM
Our next opponent is on a 10 game win streak.

Funny how Larry Brown's team is getting all the press with a 6 game win streak.

duke dynamite
03-08-2009, 02:57 AM
Our next opponent is on a 10 game win streak.

Funny how Larry Brown's team is getting all the press with a 6 game win streak.
It happens. It's a feel good story for the Bobcats. I mean c'mon, where was this team before this season.

But yeah. Good luck against Utah.

MyFavMartin
03-08-2009, 03:00 AM
It happens. It's a feel good story for the Bobcats. I mean c'mon, where was this team before this season.

But yeah. Good luck against Utah.

I think Utah is used to being ignored.

Probably just ticks Jerry Sloan off even more.

Yeah... and that's just what we want. :rolleyes:

I think we get Granger back for this one.

Or at least I hope.


Obviously 20% chance isn't great but Pacers got to take care of their end and see where the chips fall.

larry
03-08-2009, 03:02 AM
17 games left w/ a 28-37 record now.
13-4 gets us .500 unlikely, but doable.
The fact that I even entertain the thought is great considering how I felt when Danny went out.

You are right about Utah. Sloan is a good coach & they are always tough.
They are a team that gets maybe even less press than the Pacers.
More people are just going to click on links & read papers w/ L. brown in the tittle over Utah I guess. I'd sure rather face Brown's team on Tuesday.

Phree Refill
03-08-2009, 11:17 AM
A very nice win last night in a game we HAD to have. I was very pleased to see that we were able to fight back from that 15 point deficit to take the game away from the Clippers. Who knew Jack was this good? As tight-knit as this team is, i just don't see how Granger coming back can hurt us in any way. JOB needs to be drilling into his guys to keep their same aggressiveness even when Granger comes back. If everyone keeps playing with the fire and passion they have showed in the last two and a half weeks AND we get Granger back..... you can only assume we'll be a very tough team to deal with. Of course i guess we'll never know until we actually see it.

We have been faltering mightily in our Group B goals but we have exceeded expectations thus far in our Group A goals. A win Tuesday would put us at our Group A goal already with three games still to play in that group. Its begining to look like chicago and charlotte are the two teams that are going to make a playoff push down the stretch in the East. The closer to .500 we can finish the better, if we hope to make it too.

As it stands we are:

5-1 against Group A (6-4)
5-8 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-1 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(L), Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-8 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

MyFavMartin
03-08-2009, 09:40 PM
Nets beat the Knicks but Philly lost to Memphis!:eek:

Phree Refill
03-11-2009, 07:52 AM
Utah took it up a notch in the fourth quarter. We did not. Enough said. Utah was a team I expected to lose to so it still fits in my grand scheme of things. That leaves us with just 3 more losses before we can no longer finish .500 It would require a 13-3 finish. Not very likely. At least Milwuakee and Charlotte both lost last night so we didn't lose any ground on them.

As it stands we are:

5-2 against Group A (6-4)
5-8 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-2 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(L), Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

5-8 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

NuffSaid
03-11-2009, 10:59 AM
I didn't expect the Pacers would win against the Jazz, but I was somewhat surprised at how well they competed. Turnovers killed them! And most of them were unforced!! Still, until the 4Q, my boyz were hanging pretty tough. And speaking of tough...

The Pacers won't face another WC opponent until 3/18 & 3/20 when they play the Blazers and Mavs, respectively, both games at the Fieldhouse. Time for some home cooking by the refs you say? ;) From there, except for playing the Spurs and OKC on 4/3 and 4/5, respectively, the Pacers will face all EC teams the rest of the way. And if you really want to get optimistic, the Pacers will play 10 of their remaining 16 games at home. So, the playing field is set. It's up to them to take advantage of it. I doubt they'll pull off 13 wins to end the season at .500, but I hope they can win enough games to get that 8th seed.

It's a long shot, but if ever there was a time for them to make a push, this is it!!!

Shade
03-11-2009, 11:15 AM
You know what sucks? Of our remaining 16 games, only 4 are against opponents that currently have a worse record than us. We're going to have to get a good number of "upsets," while winning all the games we're "supposed" to win, in order to get that #8 seed.

At this point, I see us once again finishing in the #9 spot in the East and getting the #11 pick. For the third year in a row. :sigh:

Naptown_Seth
03-11-2009, 10:35 PM
You know what sucks? Of our remaining 16 games, only 4 are against opponents that currently have a worse record than us. We're going to have to get a good number of "upsets," while winning all the games we're "supposed" to win, in order to get that #8 seed.

At this point, I see us once again finishing in the #9 spot in the East and getting the #11 pick. For the third year in a row. :sigh:
There's still the lottery.

What are my chances?
Not good.
You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
I'd say more like one out of a million.
So you're saying there's a chance. :devil:

MyFavMartin
03-11-2009, 10:45 PM
You could also say of the top 6 best teams of the NBA (Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, Magic, Spurs and Rockets), we only have 1 game remaining and that's with the Spurs.

But considering that we've done well against teams like the Celtics, Cavs, and Lakers, we all know that there's not a team in the league that the Pacers can't beat on any given night.

Unfortunately, we also know about the flipside of that statement.

Phree Refill
03-15-2009, 11:53 AM
I originally anticipated a loss to the Hawks when I figured up everything in the begining but with the season edging closer and closer to the finish, a couple of these games i predicted losses for we'll have to win to make up ground. This leaves us needing a 13-2 finish to reach .500 ...Danny doing this I'm playing/I'm not playing stuff hasn't realy helped either. Don't get me wrong, I don't want him to come back too early and re-injure himself, but i also don't like being jerked around either. Come back when your ready. Don't make it into a soap opera.

We should learn a lot about the future of this team in the next month. We will either fight to a nice finish to the season or lay an egg down the stretch; which will be an indicator of whether or not this team can become something more next year or if we can expect the same. Todays game in Toronto, in my mind, should set the tone for the rest of the season.

As it stands we are:

5-2 against Group A (6-4)
5-9 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-2 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(L), Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

5-9 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
03-16-2009, 07:23 AM
Yesterdays loss in Toronto was very disheartening. I really have nothing more to say.

As it stands we are:

5-2 against Group A (6-4)
5-10 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-2 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(L), Toronto(1L), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

5-10 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

NuffSaid
03-16-2009, 12:18 PM
Yesterday's game against the Raptors was just pathetic! They let a team that's not even in the playoff hunt humiliate them with their go-to-guy a seldom used player. So much so, this guy was a third stringer behind Macon when he was with the Raptors last year! Now, if that's not embarrassing, I don't know what is! But this has been one of four trends with this Pacers team this season:

1. Blow double-digit leds and lose.

2. Allow teams to end their losing streaks when they play against us.

3. Allow some player to have a breakout game. And it doesn't matter if he's returning from a suspension, an injury, if he's an All-Star, role player or some bench player who's a virtual unknown like the guy from the Raptors.

4. Play really hard against +.500 teams and beat some of the best! Lose to -.500 teams.

I watch now hoping beyond hope, but knowing one, if not all of the above trends, will continue.

I don't think I've ever wanted the NBA season to be more over in my life! These next 14 games can't be done and over with soon enough.

Phree Refill
03-19-2009, 07:22 AM
Are you guys ready for the 13-0 finish?! Becuase its gonna happen. We will finish the season on a 13 game win streak and reach .500 I'm calling it right now.

As it stands we are:

5-2 against Group A (6-4)
5-11 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-2 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(2L), Toronto(1L), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

5-11 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

Putnam
03-19-2009, 08:27 AM
Are you guys ready for the 13-0 finish?! Becuase its gonna happen. We will finish the season on a 13 game win streak and reach .500 I'm calling it right now.



http://blogs.sqlservercentral.com/blogs/michael_coles/dewey_defeats_truman.jpg


.

Peter_sixtyftsixin
03-19-2009, 10:13 AM
http://blogs.sqlservercentral.com/blogs/michael_coles/dewey_defeats_truman.jpg


.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Gold. Historical reference +1. Although are you saying he's Dewey? Because he was heavily favored in that election. Or are you calling him Truman thanks to public polling being in its infancy he's going to somehow pull this out and be correct?

Putnam
03-19-2009, 10:31 AM
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Gold. Historical reference +1. Although are you saying he's Dewey? Because he was heavily favored in that election. Or are you calling him Truman thanks to public polling being in its infancy he's going to somehow pull this out and be correct?


Optimism is a good thing and I've been rooting for Phree Refill since he started this thread. So, let's go with "he's going to somehow pull this out."

(Though I don't believe it for a second.)



.

DocHolliday
03-19-2009, 10:36 AM
Onward, sunshiners, to the "playoffs are still attainable" thread. :rolleyes::bs:

NuffSaid
03-19-2009, 05:42 PM
Are you guys ready for the 13-0 finish?! Becuase its gonna happen. We will finish the season on a 13 game win streak and reach .500 I'm calling it right now.
Sorry, Phree, but I don't share your optimism. I just don't see this team going 13-0 to reach .500. Heck, I don't see them going 7-6 the rest of the way and that's better than .500 to close the season! To get to the post-season, the Pacers would have to go:

8-2 in Group A (currently 5-2 w/prediction of going 6-4)

11-11 in Group B (currently 5-10 w/prediction of going 12-10)

7-2 in Group C (currently 3-2 w/prediction of going 8-1)

That would fulfill your end-of-season predition of closing the season going 26-15, but I just don't see how they'll pull it off. They just don't have what it takes to get there.

Big Smooth
03-19-2009, 07:57 PM
I highly doubt he is being serious about a 13-0 finish. It is kind of the final straw, the "Germans bombed Pearl Harbor" speech from Animal House when all else has failed. ;)

Phree Refill
03-21-2009, 03:14 PM
I told you we'd go 0-13 the rest of the way.... ;)

As it stands we are:

5-3 against Group A (6-4)
5-11 against Group B (12-10)
3-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas(L), Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-3 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(2L), Toronto(1L), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

5-11 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

3-2 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
03-23-2009, 07:25 AM
Maybe we just needed one tune up game before we were ready to finish the season 12-0.....

As it stands we are:

5-3 against Group A (6-4)
5-11 against Group B (12-10)
4-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas(L), Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-3 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(2L), Toronto(1L), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

5-11 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(2W,1L,), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

4-2 against Group C (8-1)

Shade
03-23-2009, 12:23 PM
Even though it has officially been rendered moot, I would like to thank you for running this thread, Phree. It has been a fun read.

Phree Refill
03-23-2009, 01:51 PM
Even though it has officially been rendered moot, I would like to thank you for running this thread, Phree. It has been a fun read.

Not a problem at all. Thank you Shade and everyone else that has had positive comments for me. I'm going to finish it out to the end of the season just so we may see where the team slipped in regards to my analysis.

As for the title of this thread, it no longer serves it justice. Perhaps it should be renamed ".500 finish no longer attainable. How we failed inside"

DisplacedKnick
03-23-2009, 05:39 PM
It can still be done.

Say the Pacers win their next 11 to finish in a three-way tie for the 8th playoff seed. Those 3 teams are tied in EVERY SINGLE TIEBREAKER and have to play their way in. There's a coin toss to figure out who gets a bye. Pacers lose and win the first game, then beat the team that won the coin flip.

42-42 - .500 season! :dance:

I hate to see hope die.

MrSparko
03-23-2009, 05:58 PM
It can still be done.

Say the Pacers win their next 11 to finish in a three-way tie for the 8th playoff seed. Those 3 teams are tied in EVERY SINGLE TIEBREAKER and have to play their way in. There's a coin toss to figure out who gets a bye. Pacers lose and win the first game, then beat the team that won the coin flip.

42-42 - .500 season! :dance:

I hate to see hope die.

One can only hope.

Phree Refill
03-26-2009, 07:13 AM
2 down, 10 to go! 12-0 baby, 12-0!

As it stands we are:

5-3 against Group A (6-4)
6-11 against Group B (12-10)
4-2 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas(L), Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-3 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(2W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(2L), Toronto(1L), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

6-11 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(2W,1L,), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

4-2 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
03-29-2009, 10:28 AM
Yesterdays loss pretty well put the nail in our coufin. I'm excited about next year though. If Rush and Hibbert can develope well over the sumer I think we'll be a very tough team. Even with no roster moves, I think just the natural development of both rookies will be a great improvement.

As it stands we are:

5-3 against Group A (6-4)
6-11 against Group B (12-10)
4-3 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas(L), Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-3 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(2W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(2L), Toronto(1L), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

6-11 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W,1L), Charlotte(2W,1L,), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

4-3 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
03-30-2009, 07:46 AM
Too bad we didn't beat chicago saturday. We'd be just 2.5 games back right now. I don't see us going 8-0 and them going 3-4 down the stretch for us to squeak in the playoffs though. Maybe next year.

As it stands we are:

5-3 against Group A (6-4)
7-11 against Group B (12-10)
4-3 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas(L), Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-3 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(2W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(2L), Toronto(1L), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L,1W), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

7-11 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W,1L), Charlotte(2W,1L,), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

4-3 against Group C (8-1)

Phree Refill
04-01-2009, 07:13 AM
As it stands we are:

5-3 against Group A (6-4)
7-11 against Group B (12-10)
5-3 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas(L), Oklahoma City, and Detroit

5-3 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(2W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(2L), Toronto(1L), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L,1W), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta(1L)

7-11 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (2W,1L), Charlotte(2W,1L,), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

5-3 against Group C (8-1)

naptownmenace
04-01-2009, 12:35 PM
As it stands we are:

5-3 against Group A (6-4)
7-11 against Group B (12-10)
5-3 against Group C (8-1)




The bright side is the Pacers are 17-17 over their last 34 games.

That's a really good sign of improvement. If it wasn't for that brutal December, we'd be right in the playoff hunt.

NuffSaid
04-01-2009, 01:28 PM
naptownM...

Let's just hope that next year's schedule is alot more balanced throughout the year than this year's. I'd really like to see more consecutive home games than these 2 games @ home then 3 and 4 games away. I'm tired of seeing teams like the Lakers get 5 days off or 5-6 consecutive home games while the Pacers play such difficult schedules. Granted, it's not necessarily the team's fault what their schedule turns out to be, but dang! Can this franchise every get a break?

Phree Refill
04-16-2009, 07:43 AM
Just thought i'd do a season ending recap of how we did versus my predicitons. Overall we finished 5 games below .500. Here is how it panned out:

7-3 against Group A (6-4)
8-14 against Group B (12-10)
6-3 against Group C (8-1)

*Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers(W), Utah(L), Dallas(L), Oklahoma City(W), and Detroit(W)

7-3 against Group A (6-4)

Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(2L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(2W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland(2L), Toronto(1L,1W), Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L,1W), Cleveland(1L,1W), and Atlanta(2L)

8-14 against Group B (12-10)

Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (2W,1L), Charlotte(2W,1L,), and Milwaukee(2W,1L)

6-3 against Group C (8-1)

Our second half of the season record was 21-20. I could have hit my projections if it weren't for 5 key losses, most of which occuring in Group B. The home loss to the Timberwolves was a big one, the loss to the Wizards at there place was another one, not winning at least one of our two second half games against New York was another, and the egg we laid up in Toronto last month was a fourth. The fifth loss didn't even occur inside this analysis. You have to go back to November when we held a 25, 26, or 27 point lead over Philadelphia and blew it. I was sick to my stomach after that game.

If the five games I mentioned above would have gone the other way then we would be .500 and preparing for Orlando in the first round right now (pretty sure we would have had the tie breaker over Philly and Chicago for the 6th seed). So there you go. All those close losses we experienced throughout the year did come back to bite us. This team is close to breaking through and I believe we all will be in for a pleasant surprise next year.

Unclebuck
04-16-2009, 09:56 AM
The schedule is incredibly easy the rest of the way. I always look at the tough road games. And after tonight they have one game at Orlando and one at Boston. Really that is it. I can't remember a schedule that is so lopsided. They have one short west coast trip to play Clips, Kings and a toughy at Portland. No more games in Texas. If they can improve their play by 5% (whatever that means) and win 50% of the close ones - I see no reason at all that they cannot go 23-18 or 22-19

Pacers went 21-19