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View Full Version : What a difference some perspective makes..



docpaul
10-20-2008, 12:17 PM
I caught this article on Greg Oden this morning, and I thought it was quite interesting, especially when thinking about Roy.

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http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2008/10/commentary_greg_odens_burden.html



It was late last week, and I told the Trail Blazers' rookie center that I had to be honest: Through four exhibition games, I had been underwhelmed by his performance

Upon hearing this, Oden's eyes pierced. His lips tightened. And for a second, I thought my head was about to be squashed like a grape by the 7-foot, 273-pound center.

His direct stare at me was, uh, let's say ... moving.
That poor guy couldn't do anything but underwhelm, given the incredible amount of hype and pressure he must be under... then I got to thinking about Roy, and how he's been under a lot less scrutiny, and if anything people were "underwhelmed" by his potential, and if anything, there is a lot less expected of him.

Then I got to looking at their preseason statistics:

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</td><td>G</td><td>GS</td><td>MPG</td><td>FG%</td><td>3P%</td><td>FT%</td><td>OFF</td><td>DEF</td><td>TOT</td><td>APG</td><td>SPG</td><td>BPG</td><td>TO</td><td>PF</td><td>PPG</td></tr><tr><td>Oden</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>20.8</td><td>.533</td><td>.000</td><td>.600</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.3</td><td>6.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.25</td><td>0.75</td><td>2.0</td><td>3.3</td><td>11.0</td></tr><tr><td>Hibbert</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>19.8</td><td>.561</td><td>.000</td><td>.520</td><td>1.80</td><td>4.30</td><td>6.20</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.33</td><td>2.17</td><td>2.67</td><td>3.50</td><td>9.8
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I think it's fair to say that, at least up to this point, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and Roy's performance has matched up pretty well. It'll be interesting to see how these early indications manifest themselves this year, but I'd be willing to bet that they play fairly equivalent ball.

Peck
10-20-2008, 12:43 PM
While I agree that this is very interesting I want to throw out a caution.

Portland has a very vested interest in making Oden the center piece of thier team and probably of thier offense. The Pacers are under no such obligation with Hibbert.

Greg will probably get the ball thrown to him a few more times and told to score than what Roy will.

This doesn't mean that Roy will not play well, it just means that if Oden doesn't have an outstanding year it will be considered a failure. If Roy doesn't have an outstanding year the only people truely dissappointed will be those of us on here who have built him up in the pre-season. I think the Pacers will just be happy with productivity and anything else will be considered a bonus.

Since86
10-20-2008, 03:05 PM
If people think that Greg is the type of player to throw the ball into throughout the game and him to just be a dominate force, then they're going to be severly disappointed not only in his rookie year, but his entire career.

Dece
10-20-2008, 03:19 PM
Interesting how close those stat lines are... except the supposed dominant defensive guy Oden has nearly 1.5 blocks less per game. I wouldn't have guessed that.

MrSparko
10-20-2008, 03:21 PM
To be fair one is coming back from surgery....and to be more fair it is preseason.

Dece
10-20-2008, 03:32 PM
And we played teams with weak inside presences, no idea who Oden was matching up with, but regardless of the details I'm not making a claim as to who's better in the preseason, just a stat I wouldn't of seen coming.

Major Cold
10-20-2008, 04:08 PM
THis is what I expect out of Oden.

He should be defensively on the same level as Mutumbo and as mobile as Ben Wallace. Offensively I see him in the middle of David Robinson and Robert Parish. I do not expect him to be dominant of the offensive end, but he is capable of being dominant on the defensive end.

Dece
10-20-2008, 06:18 PM
Same level as a sure hall of famer, and one of the greatest inside defenders of all time?

You don't expect much, do you?

MrSparko
10-20-2008, 08:40 PM
You should read his posts in the 2k9 Forum.

Major Cold
10-20-2008, 11:37 PM
Same level as a sure hall of famer, and one of the greatest inside defenders of all time?

You don't expect much, do you?

Is that expecting too much out of him? I mean the media thought he was to be David Robinson 2.0. Oden was picked number one and thought to be the next great. My expectations could make him less than Yao, Howard, and maybe Bynum.

I do not expect Oden to have the range of Robinson. How he moves in the post reminds me of the Chief and his explosiveness reminds me of David Robinson.

Have I been talking Oden up in the 2K forum? :link:

croz24
10-20-2008, 11:54 PM
i believe it's still the preseason is it not

MrSparko
10-20-2008, 11:58 PM
I was refering to posts (pulling this out of memory only mind you) where you "would not play a single game without oden" "and will dominate once I have oden" and so on. :P

Naptown_Seth
10-21-2008, 12:06 AM
To be fair one is coming back from surgery....and to be more fair it is preseason.
And even more fair, it's a different system with different rosters. Cripes, Roy could be the team's leading scorer almost, and certainly it's not way out of bounds to wonder if he might be 3rd behind Danny and Mike (if he's healthy).

Oden is sharing the scoring and stat load with A LOT of guys. And this cuts the other way too because it also means that he won't get the same amount of attention and will be able to focus much more on just doing one thing. My guess that one thing will be rebound and scoring on put backs, with 2-3 token dump ins per game ala Dale Davis.


Two things are true though
1) Hibbert has far less expectations on him. That's why he was drafted so much farther down. That's not my personal opinion, that's the opinion of MANY NBA scouts and experts who valued Oden much more than Hibbert. My opinion comes into play when I agree with them because he looked overmatched athletically at times by a guy like Thabeet and appeared to be too slow and mechnical for the NBA.

The good news is he can only overachieve at this point.

2) He has had some very nice preseason outings and stat lines. Hard to know what this means, but at least he hasn't looked like a train wreck.


Like some of the other old timers on here I just worry that fans will have the wrong expectations on some of these guys. Smits got heckled to no end in his rookie year despite the fact that he was forced into much more action than was expected of him when Stipo's career ended early.

Hibbert might rip through a hot rookie year, but even if he struggles along who cares. Give him a few seasons to develop, even as a 4 year guy. Ditto on Rush....and Oden if Portland fans know what's good for them.

Dece
10-21-2008, 11:24 AM
I think expecting anyone, first pick or not, to be as good as a hall of famer is over the top... let alone saying he'll be as good as what that hall of famer is known for (Mutumbo = defense) but then also the rest of his game will be better.

If Oden, or anyone, plays Mutombo in his prime defense while being anything close to the Admiral on offense... yea, that's probably greatest big man of all time stuff right there. Expecting that is just absurd, in my opinion.

croz24
10-21-2008, 01:14 PM
and anybody who is knocking oden's offensive skills or "lack thereof", try watching him exclusively for a game or two instead of basing opinions on hearsay. i've been following oden since his freshman year at ln and when oden is set on putting up points, i've never seen anybody stop him with hibbert being the closest to slowing him down.

Major Cold
10-21-2008, 01:17 PM
I was refering to posts (pulling this out of memory only mind you) where you "would not play a single game without oden" "and will dominate once I have oden" and so on. :P
I don't ever recall saying I would dominate anything:). I am horrible at the game.

Major Cold
10-21-2008, 01:32 PM
I think expecting anyone, first pick or not, to be as good as a hall of famer is over the top... let alone saying he'll be as good as what that hall of famer is known for (Mutumbo = defense) but then also the rest of his game will be better.

If Oden, or anyone, plays Mutombo in his prime defense while being anything close to the Admiral on offense... yea, that's probably greatest big man of all time stuff right there. Expecting that is just absurd, in my opinion.


Offensively I said between Parish and Robinson. If the median of those two equates "close to the Admiral on offense", then you think highly of Robert Parish. Who at times was a fourth option of his team.

Maybe expecting him to be on the same level as Mutumbo is much. But Mutumbo, HOF of not, did not dominate Hakeem, Shaq, Ewing, or Robinson to my recollection.

Now if I said that Oden will be as dominant as Wilt, and add the fact I thought he would be on the same level as Robinson (as you thought I inferred)
then you would have "probably greatest big man of all time stuff right there".

Was Robinson the most dominant offensive center of all time? Was he even the best during his time?

"probably greatest big man of all time stuff right there".
+Wilt's defensive dominance
+Shaq's offensive dominace
+Hakeem's post savy
+ Bill's rebounding
+ Sabonis' ball control (passing)

is having an expectation wrong then? Is that the question? Because from the time he was a junior in high school people were proclaiming him to revolutionize the center position. I do not expect that from Oden. I expect him to be a top center of his time and maybe a top 20 of all time.

MyFavMartin
10-21-2008, 01:43 PM
Considering Oden came out after 1 year of college while Roy played 4 years of college, I would expect Roy to start out at a higher level. Oden though has the expectations of a No. 1 pick and his projected ceiling is much higher compared to Roy, who is closer to being a finished project. (Not that Roy is close to such, but is compared to a guy with 1 year of college.)

docpaul
10-21-2008, 01:46 PM
I think expecting anyone, first pick or not, to be as good as a hall of famer is over the top... let alone saying he'll be as good as what that hall of famer is known for (Mutumbo = defense) but then also the rest of his game will be better.

If Oden, or anyone, plays Mutombo in his prime defense while being anything close to the Admiral on offense... yea, that's probably greatest big man of all time stuff right there. Expecting that is just absurd, in my opinion.

Well, that was really the primary point of this thread. I just found it demonstrative, that Oden has been judged recently as an "underperformer" thus far, and Hibbert on the other hand has been a pleasant surprise... yet their statistics are fairly identical.

It would be nice if the world was this black and white place where talent was directly proportional to floor output... but in the case of Oden, I'm a little afraid that this type of hype might be part of his undoing. He might start getting in his own way mentally. I'm frankly much more pleased (as a Pacer fan) to have a player in Hibbert's position, where he's being propped up with enthusiasm and less expectations.

ChicagoJ
10-21-2008, 06:19 PM
Mutombo is a Hall of Famer? In what, the wave-my-finger-at-a-guard-jackass HoF? Or the everybody-overlooks-my-lack-of-sportsmanship-because-I-give-away-lots-to-charity HoF?

Dece
10-21-2008, 07:04 PM
If a 4 time defensive player of the year, and 8 time all-star isn't considered a hall of famer then who exactly is qualified?

BlueNGold
10-21-2008, 07:21 PM
Oden's potential on defense is something I don't think I've ever witnessed in the NBA...in my 40+ years. There have been a lot of great defensive players, but I don't recall a center with his size, length, athleticism and demeanor.

I always thought Rodman, Mourning and Ben Wallace were pretty good. IDK, but I can't think of a player quite like Oden. Maybe Bill Russell? Russell was definitely not that big.

Edit: Oden has a long, long way to go to be a dominant force on offense. IMO, Hibbert is a more talented offensive player...although Oden is clearly a more talented defensive player.

Anthem
10-21-2008, 07:43 PM
Like some of the other old timers on here I just worry that fans will have the wrong expectations on some of these guys.
Who are you calling an old-timer? :nunchuck:

Naptown_Seth
10-21-2008, 10:23 PM
Who are you calling an old-timer? :nunchuck:
That's what you get for cutting me in the social security line. Besides it's not like I called you "Peck old", the guy who had to move to closer seats because he couldn't see what was going on from his old seats.*







* random one shot resumption of my "Most Offensive Poster" campaign

dohman
10-22-2008, 01:28 AM
i believe it's still the preseason is it not

I believe it is still preseason for BOTH PLAYERS.

JayRedd
10-22-2008, 02:58 AM
Offensively I said between Parish and Robinson. If the median of those two equates "close to the Admiral on offense", then you think highly of Robert Parish.

Everyone in the world thinks pretty highly of Robert Parish.


from the time he was a junior in high school people were proclaiming him to revolutionize the center position.a top center of his time and maybe a top 20 of all time.[/B]

You mean like David Robinson and The Chief?

I'm not saying Oden can't end up at Top 10-15 center of all time...it's certainly a possibility. But let's not just dismiss off hand guys that already are.

Charcoal Filtered
10-22-2008, 02:58 PM
FYI, if you are reading anything out of Portland from Quick or Canzano, they are comparable to Kravitz. Portland is a one sport town and those guys stir the pot. I stopped reading the Oregonian because of their stupidity.

Even if Oden did not miss half of his college season and all of his first pro season, there was going to be growing pains. Expecting him to play like Shaq in his prime from day one is nonsense. He is still drawing double teams and has to be accounted for every play. He is a man among boys, even without a fine tuned game or endurance.

Fans of Oden are not disappointed at all. We knew that there would be a learning and health curve.

d_c
10-22-2008, 03:05 PM
He is still drawing double teams and has to be accounted for every play. He is a man among boys, even without a fine tuned game or endurance.

Yep. That's the one thing you immediately notice about him. That's what doesn't show up in the boxscore. That's the thing you can't measure by stats alone. He already draws double teams in the post and teams are very aware of how he changes the game on the defensive end. They try to avoid him.

The guy is going to be a force in this league. And with the type of team they've got, it's not as if any one single player has to carry the load offensively. I think this guy is going to be absolutely dominant on the defensive end.

Major Cold
10-22-2008, 03:08 PM
Everyone in the world thinks pretty highly of Robert Parish.



You mean like David Robinson and The Chief?

I'm not saying Oden can't end up at Top 10-15 center of all time...it's certainly a possibility. But let's not just dismiss off hand guys that already are.

I wasn't. Dece was saying that what I expected was possibly the best center of all-time. Just because I put into perspective Robert Parish's offensive demeanor (career 14 ppg) does not mean that he was not a great center.

BlueNGold
10-22-2008, 06:35 PM
I think this guy is going to be absolutely dominant on the defensive end.

As long as he stays healthy, I have no doubt you are correct.

The only thing I even wonder about is how foul prone he may turn out to be. The dude is real physical and real aggressive on D and in my NSHO (i.e. not so humble opinion) has no peer in NBA history based on the combination of his size, length, hops and mental attitude on D.

Edit: btw, it will be fun to watch him and Dwight Howard matchup.

McKeyFan
10-22-2008, 07:01 PM
I wasn't. Dece was saying that what I expected was possibly the best center of all-time. Just because I put into perspective Robert Parish's offensive demeanor (career 14 ppg) does not mean that he was not a great center.

Our enforcer, Jay Redd/Laimbeer/Dale/Oakley.