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Pacemaker
10-17-2008, 05:28 AM
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/BDL-s-2008-09-NBA-Season-Preview-Indiana-Pacers;_ylt=Ar.qFiVjVDCQgD2bTUgTBjq8vLYF?urn=nba,1 15265

Interesting article plus cool pics !!

Putnam
10-17-2008, 08:33 AM
Really good read. And a quite sensible prediction of 37 wins.

And it is good to read the admonition to "Go and watch this team."


But I don't understand this part:

You may not know it, what with per-game stats confusing things, but the Pacers actually played better on defense last year than they did on offense.

By what definition of "better" is that statement true?

BillS
10-17-2008, 08:38 AM
BDL's 2008-09 NBA Season Preview: Indiana Pacers

By J.E. Skeets


As the NBA preseason marches on, Ball Don't Lie looks at all 30 teams, outlining off-season transactions, projecting win totals, spinning tracks, and much, much more. It's a fun, hot mess. Next, the Indiana Pacers.

Last Season: 36-46

Key Players Added: TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston and draft pick Dr. Roy Hibbert (trade with Raptors), Jarrett Jack and draft picks Josh McRoberts and Brandon Rush (trade with Blazers)

Key Players Lost: Jermaine O'Neal (shipped to Canada), Kareem Rush (free agent), Flip Murray (free agent), Ike Diogu (traded to Blazers, opened a small pool installation company), Jamaal Tinsley (well, probably)


Kelly Dwyer's Endless Grey Ribbon: Leaving these guys at only 37 wins seems like a bum move. For whatever you think of T.J. Ford, he usually provides borderline All-Star stats, and last time I looked, the team with the most points wins. Guys like Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Troy Murphy are entering their primes, distractions like Jamaal Tinsley and Shawne Williams are gone, and coach Jim OíBrien has a strength that plays to these guysí strengths. Namely, shooting the ball from very far away.

So I wouldnít be surprised if the team rattles off, say, 42 or 43 wins. But I just canít help but look at this roster, look at what the players on this roster did last season on whatever team they played for, and go over 37.

I understand that Jermaine OíNeal barely played last year, and when he did show up he was a little behind the times. Or his man. Whatever. He still brought the defense, and though Rasho Nesterovic is a pretty underrated defender, this was a team that did a miraculous job to defend as well as it did last year. You may not know it, what with per-game stats confusing things, but the Pacers actually played better on defense last year than they did on offense.

Can it catch lightning in a bottle again in 2008-09? Iím not buying it. Hopefully Iím wrong again.

Here is what do I know: Pacer fans need to come and see this team.

This is a very entertaining group, and theyíre quite the sight to behold in person. Regular readers know Iím not the type to usually ask people to open their wallets, and Iím especially hesitant given the current climate, but the Pacers play in one of the best buildings in the world to see a basketball game, and this team is a very entertaining group of shooters and scorers. Also, all the jerks are gone.

(Again, depending on what you think of T.J. Ford. Letís not shake that stick, though, OK?)

What I do worry about, also, is the teamís depth. And whether or not Dunleavy and Danny Granger can hit over 40 percent of their three-point shots again, because thatís pretty important to the teamís overall plan. The Pacers might be wise to give up on Dunleavy, especially if he comes out on fire again this year. Heís been damn good for Indiana, but heís also 28, in his prime, a little older than the others, and with a ready-made young backup (Brandon Roy Rush) in place.

If it meant picking up a passable big man, draft picks, or clearing even more space for next summer (if the Pacers give up on Jarrett Jack and give Granger a deal starting at nine million, they could be 11 million or so under the salary cap this offseason), then itís worth Indianaís time. For the first time that I can remember, there are quite a few teams with holes at the wing position, which is usually the easiest to fill. Indiana is playing two small forwards at a time. Work on that.

And come see this team. I know that local cable ratings went way up last season, but you get the distinct impression that no one cares when youíre watching the Pacers play at home. This is a run and gun team that sends some pretty nice rotations up into the air from 25 feet, and last I checked, Indiana residents were way into that.

Come on back, Hoosiers. Itís safe. We promise.

Expected Record: 37-45

<i>Come on back, Hoosiers. Itís safe. We promise.</i>

:evillaugh

DGPR
10-17-2008, 09:35 AM
That was a refreshing read, and it's good to see the Pacers on the right side of the news.

PacerGuy
10-17-2008, 09:46 AM
Here is what do I know: Pacer fans need to come and see this team......This is a very entertaining group, and theyíre quite the sight to behold in person. Regular readers know Iím not the type to usually ask people to open their wallets, and Iím especially hesitant given the current climate, but the Pacers play in one of the best buildings in the world to see a basketball game, and this team is a very entertaining group of shooters and scorers. Also, all the jerks are gone...... And come see this team. I know that local cable ratings went way up last season, but you get the distinct impression that no one cares when youíre watching the Pacers play at home. This is a run and gun team that sends some pretty nice rotations up into the air from 25 feet, and last I checked, Indiana residents were way into that...... Come on back, Hoosiers. Itís safe. We promise.

A little lenghty for a bilboard, & logical for Krapitz article, but its nice to see this kind of thing out there. Larry couldn't have written it any better himself (no, really, me thinks Larry likely not write soo good ;) ). A better record perdiction would have been nice, but lets face it his up-side for us is likely close & is a play-off record, so not too bad. I just wish most "Joe the Plumbers" out there could read this.

Major Cold
10-17-2008, 10:11 AM
I have them winning 37 too.

Smoothdave1
10-17-2008, 10:35 AM
Good read. I am thinking we finish right at .500 if everyone stays relatively healthy.

Interesting, though, that he did advocate a Dunleavy deal for picks and a big.

Roaming Gnome
10-17-2008, 10:49 AM
This is not a Yahoo Sports' preview. It is just a blog on Yahoo. I felt like it was written by a fan of the Pacers, so it lost credibility with me.

Now if I seen this written in USA Today, SI, or Sporting News... I'd be impressed.

Anthem
10-17-2008, 11:22 AM
Hard to disagree with this:


What I do worry about, also, is the team’s depth. And whether or not Dunleavy and Danny Granger can hit over 40 percent of their three-point shots again, because that’s pretty important to the team’s overall plan. The Pacers might be wise to give up on Dunleavy, especially if he comes out on fire again this year. He’s been damn good for Indiana, but he’s also 28, in his prime, a little older than the others, and with a ready-made young backup (Brandon Roy Rush) in place.

If it meant picking up a passable big man, draft picks, or clearing even more space for next summer (if the Pacers give up on Jarrett Jack and give Granger a deal starting at nine million, they could be 11 million or so under the salary cap this offseason), then it’s worth Indiana’s time. For the first time that I can remember, there are quite a few teams with holes at the wing position, which is usually the easiest to fill. Indiana is playing two small forwards at a time. Work on that.

count55
10-17-2008, 11:53 AM
Really good read. And a quite sensible prediction of 37 wins.

And it is good to read the admonition to "Go and watch this team."


But I don't understand this part:


By what definition of "better" is that statement true?

The only thing I can think of this could be in reference to is Offensive Rating vs. Defensive Rating.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html#off_rtg

Basically, these are points scored/allowed per 100 possession. It depends on how you're going to define "better", though. The Pacer's Offensive Rating was 106.0, while the Defensive Rating was 107.5. However, the Pacers ranked 15th in DR, while only standing 19th in OR. Statistically, it was worse, but relative to the rest of the league, they were "better".

As with all statistics, you have to understand the context and limitations. I think he's stretching the point, almost to breaking, here. When I saw that OR/DR thing a few months ago, it did make me stop and think. However, I couldn't decide whether it was telling we that we were farther along defensively than I thought, or that we weren't as far along offensively as it seemed.

avoidingtheclowns
10-17-2008, 11:57 AM
This is not a Yahoo Sports' preview. It is just a blog on Yahoo. I felt like it was written by a fan of the Pacers, so it lost credibility with me.

Now if I seen this written in USA Today, SI, or Sporting News... I'd be impressed.

ummm... it's kelly dwyer. he used to write for SI (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/writers/kelly_dwyer/archive/index.html/) among other places (like True Hoop, etc). he is also admittedly a major bulls fan. dwyer is one of the best and funniest analysts more people should be reading.

duke dynamite
10-17-2008, 12:28 PM
Key Players Lost: Jermaine O'Neal (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3120/) (shipped to Canada)

HA HA HA HA HA

McKeyFan
10-17-2008, 01:57 PM
The Pacers might be wise to give up on Dunleavy, especially if he comes out on fire again this year.

Okay, so if he sucks, we keep him, but if he's great we trade him quick?

:whoknows:

Kuq_e_Zi91
10-17-2008, 02:07 PM
Well if he sucks, we have no choice but to keep him, because who would make an offer for him then?

If he's great, his stock is even higher, so an even better time to trade him.

McKeyFan
10-17-2008, 02:13 PM
I guess this makes sense because we're doubled up at the three (Granger).

But if he's that good, I'd just rather keep Dun instead.

Roaming Gnome
10-17-2008, 02:14 PM
ummm... it's kelly dwyer. he used to write for SI (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/writers/kelly_dwyer/archive/index.html/) among other places (like True Hoop, etc). he is also admittedly a major bulls fan. dwyer is one of the best and funniest analysts more people should be reading.

I'm just stating that its a blog, not a preview from Yahoo Sports. It was my opinion that it felt like it was written by a Pacer fan. I'm glad that you mentioned who the writer is because I didn't know who he was. I guess what I'm saying is; IMHO, it felt less then professional to be the "Yahoo Sports" season preview.

ChicagoJ
10-17-2008, 02:42 PM
Its from Ball Never Lies, which is, of course, a blog.

And Kelly Dwyer is brilliant. He should get a legit job because he's better than many of the other writers.

I've said this before, but his season preview for the 2000-01 Pacers, presented as "Presidential Debate Style" between Reggie Miller and Isiah Thomas back on the old NBATalk.com was an exceptional piece of writing for both humor and basketball analysis all rolled in one.

He made Bill Benner's patented "argument" between Mr. Pessimist and Mr. Optimist seem trivial.

docpaul
10-17-2008, 03:38 PM
Okay, so if he sucks, we keep him, but if he's great we trade him quick?

:whoknows:

My guess is that either Granger or Dunleavy will go within the next 1.5 years. One could go two ways with this:

1) You believe that Granger is the go-to-guy, and you bring in a series of complementary players. I believe the future will show that Hibbert, Ford, and Rush might very well be complementary long term starters alongside Granger. Obviously still missing the 4. In this case, you could argue to trade Dunleavy for a young, promising 4 (eg. Kevin Love, Tyrus Thomas, David West, low post monster type of player)...

2) You believe that Dunleavy is a key, highly valued glue type facilitator who makes everyone else play better, and you sign and trade Granger. The way you hear JOB speaking about Dunleavy, you gotta believe he's thinking about keeping him around for a while... challenge of course is that he's 28, and he's probably got about a good 1-3 years in him. In practice, they probably ride out his contract. If they did choose to keep him around, the centerpiece of a Granger trade would likely be multiple 1st round draft picks and young talent. My guess is that Portland would be an excellent partner for such a direction. They're already stocked with talent, and will be looking for more "veteran" presence.

Personally, at this point, I'm not convinced that either Granger or Dunleavy is a "bedrock" player, and given the current landscape, Granger will be more valuable come decision time. I'm also not convinced that there's a long term strategy that will have them both on the court successfully together on a championship team. I'd vote for option #2 and maybe try to squeeze Aldridge and a 1st round draft pick out of Portland. Aldridge has complementary and one might argue redundant skills once Oden is firmly in place, and one could argue that a Granger/Oden/Roy core could be pretty special.

Identically, an Aldridge type player here in Indy would be amazing. I'm not sure Portland would see his level of value in Dunleavy, however.

Infinite MAN_force
10-18-2008, 10:54 AM
We would be trading the first rounder to get aldridge, and it still woulden't happen.

I just don't think the return for trading dunleavy will be worth it. I don't see the problem with having a devestating three man wing rotation with Granger/Dun/Rush splitting time roughly eqaully. Mike is probably the best scorer of the three and could be a big time spark off the bench (eventually)while the starters play smothering defense. I like it.

Hicks
10-18-2008, 12:04 PM
After last night, I was very quickly reminded why Dunleavy starts with Danny. Mike makes everyone better. He moves, he cuts, he's active (on both ends; don't let his poor man D make you think he can't do anything on that side of the floor), he hits open shots, he can handle the ball, and he can pass. He's a team-enhancer.

JayRedd
10-18-2008, 01:55 PM
Its from Ball Never Lies, which is, of course, a blog.

And Kelly Dwyer is brilliant. He should get a legit job because he's better than many of the other writers.

It's Ball Don't Lie...and I'm pretty sure he considers it a legit job.