View Full Version : Projecting 3-point Shooting - 82games.com

10-06-2008, 03:49 PM

I'm not going to post the whole article as most of it is a discussion of statistical methodology. There is some interesting Pacers-related stuff when he talks about projections for this coming season.

He's created a statistic called ATPSP which is basically an adjusted shooting percentage. Here's how it breaks down talent-wise:

.20+ = All Time Great
.16-.20 = Elite
.13-.16 = Excellent
.09-.13 = Very Good
.07-.09 = Good
.05-.07 = Above Average
.035-.05 = Capable
.02-.035 = Below Average
.005-.02 = Poor

For next season, he projects Dunleavy at a .129 which is good for 16th best in the NBA. He projects Granger at a .123 which is good for 21st in the NBA. Troy projects at a .077 which is somewhere in the mid 50's.

Interesting to see that we have 3 of the top 75 3 point shooters. Also interesting to see that Troy ranks ahead of guys like Deron Williams, Shane Battier, and Mike Bibby.

10-06-2008, 09:18 PM
Good stuff. Thanks for posting this.

I don't believe it for a second, but it is a noble effort of the statistician's art.