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View Full Version : The Biggest reason I love this trade.



CompACE
06-25-2008, 10:46 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Onealtrade-080625

More Cap Room!

It's rare that I like a trade from both sides, but once in a while one comes along that's mutually beneficial.

Wednesday's deal between Indiana and Toronto is just such a deal.

The swap would send Jermaine O'Neal to the Raptors for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Toronto's first-round pick at No. 17, and probably one other player (likely Maceo Baston). The trade can't be completed until July 9, however, because Ford is a base-year compensation player until the first day that next season's cap rules kick in (July 1), and so the trade won't work under the cap until then. From then until July 9, the league has a moratorium on trades and signings. Given all that, the trade won't be official for a fortnight.

Instead, this will be the trade that everybody knows about but nobody acknowledges publicly. There will be no announcements or press conferences and it might mess with some summer-league plans. But the teams are exchanging medical information, and right now everything appears to be a go.

By the way, this delay also means there are still two weeks for other teams to get in on this trade and make it more than a two-way deal. (And, with luck, maybe it morphs into one of those indecipherable five-way deals that somehow involve the rights to an international player who was drafted five years ago but never got a sniff of the league. I have visions of Roberto Dueñas and Sergei Lishouk waiting anxiously by the phone to find out their new "team.")

Whatever happens, the draft pick seems likely to stay in the Pacers' hands, as the draft is within 24 hours. Tomorrow the Raptors will choose whomever Larry Bird tells them to at No. 17 and then convey that player to Toronto in two weeks. But the other pieces (especially Ford and Nesterovic) could still be in play, as could the likes of Jamaal Tinsley.

Nonetheless, even if the trade doesn't expand any further, this one looks like a true win-win -- both teams are repackaging their assets to get into a far better position than they were before, and for either side, the downside seems pretty minimal.

Let's take a look, first, from Indiana's side:

# They got something for Jermaine O'Neal. This wasn't easy, not with O'Neal being owed $44 million over the next two seasons and his run of poor health the past few years. While his name has come up a lot in trade conversations over the past year, talks never got far because the other side always flinched at his salary.

# They got a point guard. Ford was excellent last year when he played, ranking sixth among all point guards with a 20.4 PER. And while Ford's spinal stenosis condition is obviously a concern, I'm told the team doctors carefully went over his medical information and concluded there isn't anything immediately career-threatening.

# They can trade Tinsley. Obviously, this involves finding somebody who wants to take him, but he was their only true starting point guard. Now they have his replacement.

# The draft is their oyster. Prior to this trade, Indy seemed locked into taking D.J. Augustin at No. 11 to resolve the point guard issue. They still might -- forming an all-Longhorn point guard rotation -- but they're also freed to pursue other talents that may unexpectedly fall their way (like Brook Lopez). And with the No. 17 pick, they can grab a second young big -- heavens knows this draft has enough of them -- to quickly rebuild the frontcourt rotation.

# Cap space! Ah, yes, now we get to the big kahuna. By taking on the expiring contracts of Nesterovic and Baston and taking back $2.5 million less than O'Neal makes to begin with, the Pacers put themselves in position to be about $16 million under the cap next summer (depending on where the cap number comes in, which we won't know until next July). They can pursue a big free agent (or take one in a trade) to team up with Ford, Danny Granger and the draft picks, and they'll have the next generation of Pacers up and running.

So, big picture, the Pacers finally start over. For the last couple years they've been hemming and hawing about whether to go in a new direction; now Bird has set a definitive course. As a result, look for other dominoes to fall in Indy -- starting with Tinsley and possibly including Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster.

Now, given all the positives for the Pacers, you might think the Raptors are getting fleeced here, but you'd be wrong. Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo has put his team in position to achieve three big objectives as well:

# A frontcourt presence. No longer will the Raptors have the league's wimpiest frontcourt. Adding O'Neal gives Toronto a legitimate post-up threat as well as one of the best defensive players in the league.

It also eases the wear and tear on Chris Bosh, who has suffered from having to play in the middle for much the past two seasons. Now Bosh is free to play where he belongs, at his natural power forward spot. And Andrea Bargnani is free to go back where he belongs: the bench.

Meanwhile, the threat of O'Neal on the block may open more room for Toronto's 3-point shooters, especially Jason Kapono.

# A point guard answer. The platoon between Ford and Jose Calderon imploded at the end of last season because Ford couldn't handle coming off the bench and Calderon was too good to yank from the starting lineup. It was also a waste of resources -- the Raptors had the fifth- and sixth-best point guards in the league by PER but couldn't play them together.

Converting one of those assets into a frontcourt player made all kinds of sense, and since Ford had a big contract (he has three years and $25 million left; Calderon is a restricted free agent who will probably get a bit over the midlevel in this market) and the one with the dodgier health record, it made sense for him to be the one exiled.

# More flexibility. I think O'Neal will work out well in Toronto. Like I said above, he answers a need and he's still a good player when healthy. And he's reportedly spending his summer in Las Vegas working out with noted trainer Joe Abunassar.

But suppose I'm wrong and O'Neal doesn't work out. In fact, let's say O'Neal is an absolute disaster in 2008-09.

Is the trade a disaster then for the Raptors? No, it is not. Because the Raptors, at that point, would be sitting on a $23 million expiring contract for 2009-10. And depending on what Colangelo does with his other contracts between now and then, he can go down one of two paths: (1) eat the cap savings and get in position for the summer of 2010, when some big names will likely be on the market or (2) trade his mammoth expiring contract for somebody else's big contract, as the Lakers did in the Pau Gasol trade this winter. Either way he comes out of it OK.

So the upshot is, this deal absolutely works for both teams. I expect the Raptors to be significantly better next year as a result of this deal, as it takes a player who was utterly redundant and converts him into a solution for the team's single biggest weakness.

And I expect the Pacers' rebuilding to be much smoother and faster now that they've jettisoned O'Neal and received '09 cap space and two good young pieces in return.

The players come out of it in better shape, too. O'Neal and Ford get new leases on life after being sprung from difficult situation. Bosh finally gets a frontcourt partner to do the dirty work for him. Calderon gets starter's minutes and some added salary leverage. Even throw-ins Nesterovic and Baston are likely to get more burn in Indy than they would have in Toronto. Only Bargnani loses.

So it's a win-win all-around. Kudos to both Bird and Colangelo for recognizing the mutual benefit.

Trader Joe
06-25-2008, 10:49 PM
So who are next season's free agents?

CompACE
06-25-2008, 10:53 PM
I have no idea if this is at all accurate but according to this guy: http://www.stopmikelupica.com/2007/12/nba_salary_cap_analysis_part_1.php

The Big Dawgs:
Drew Gooden
Allen Iverson (almost certain to re-sign with Denver)
Rasheed Wallace
Baron Davis (if he does not exercise the opt out in 2008)
Elton Brand
Lamar Odom
Kobe Bryant (option)
Jason Kidd
Stephon Marbury
Jamal Crawford (player option for 09/10 and 10/11 - 50/50)
Eddy Curry (player option for 09/10, 10/11 - 50/50)
Hedo Turkoglu (player option for 09/10, unlikely)
Andre Miller
Steve Nash (player option, unlikely)
Grant Hill
Steve Francis
Ron Artest (can opt out in '08)
Mike Bibby
Carlos Boozer (player option for 09/10 unlikely)
Mehmet Okur (player option for 09/10 unlikely)

The Rookie Contracts:
Marvin Williams (restricted)
Raymond Felton (restricted)
Jason Maxiell (restricted)
Luther Head (restricted)
Danny Granger (restricted)
Andrew Bynum (restricted)
Hakim Warrick (restricted)
Andrew Bogut (restricted)
Charlie Villanueva (restricted)
Rashard McCants (restricted)
Chris Paul (restricted)
Nate Robinson (restricted)
David Lee (restricted)
Channing Frye (restricted)
Jarrett Jack (restricted)
Francisco "Paco" Garcia (restricted)
Deron Williams (restricted)

Young Filler Material, Given Up, With Potential:
Marquis Daniels (team option, unlikely to be picked up)
Desmond Mason
Chris Wilcox

They Still Living?
Eric Snow
Brevin Knight
Damon Stoudemire
Smush Parker
Juwan Howard
Antoine Walker (player option for 09/10, 10/11 - likely)
Jason Collins
Bobby Jackson
Malik Rose
Raef LaFrentz
Wally Szczerbiak

Trader Joe
06-25-2008, 10:54 PM
Great we'll have 16 million in cap space and no one to spend it on.

Gyron
06-25-2008, 10:56 PM
Ron Artest is available? We gotta lock him up ASAP!!!!

I hear he's crazy for the basketball.....

ABADays
06-25-2008, 10:58 PM
So if nothing can get announced until July and we are getting the #17 pick do we tell Toronto who to pick or how does that work?

Mr. Sobchak
06-25-2008, 10:59 PM
Resign Granger

Trader Joe
06-25-2008, 10:59 PM
So if nothing can get announced until July and we are getting the #17 pick do we tell Toronto who to pick or how does that work?

Correct. The pick that Toronto makes at 17 tomorrow would be handed down from Bird.

CompACE
06-25-2008, 11:02 PM
Great we'll have 16 million in cap space and no one to spend it on.

If we don't spend it on anyone, fine by me. I'm just glad the Pacers actually have a bit of spending money. I don't mind waiting for a good deal to come along. At least I'll have a different Pacers team to look at til then.

Coop
06-25-2008, 11:09 PM
So...when is Oden's deal up again?

croz24
06-25-2008, 11:12 PM
rasho + foster's expiring contracts give the pacers a TON of options this upcoming year. we may actually have a future afterall (as long as bird doesn't F up the draft)!

Gamble1
06-26-2008, 12:01 AM
rasho + foster's expiring contracts give the pacers a TON of options this upcoming year. we may actually have a future afterall (as long as bird doesn't F up the draft)!

Thanks for the jinx. Next time don't point out the obvious. Signed Larry Bird and donnie's gohst.

croz24
06-26-2008, 12:28 AM
Thanks for the jinx. Next time don't point out the obvious. Signed Larry Bird and donnie's gohst.

oh it all means absolutely nothing unless bird capitalizes on it

Infinite MAN_force
06-26-2008, 01:41 AM
I will be curious about the Raps next season... If JO is healthy, it could work out really well for them. JO and Bosh can take a lot of pressure off one another offensively, and JO can be a shot blocking charge taking force in the middle.

pwee31
06-26-2008, 01:52 AM
Being under the cap could also mean taking on a trade without having to match salaries, so it's not just limited to free agency

granger33
06-26-2008, 01:55 AM
Any possibilty we can get J.Moon out of Toronto aswell?

I really hope we trade Rasho.
But im very pleased with T.J Ford. His a great PG.

Eindar
06-26-2008, 06:42 AM
Well, another positive aspect of shedding 16 million in salary is that maybe we stop hemorrhaging money and we get to stop worrying about the Las Vegas Pacers. Big payrolls are fine as long as the team is packing the house every night. I don't even care if we use all that money immediately. I'd rather have a modest payroll and financial flexibility during a rebuilding process.

2minutes twowa
06-26-2008, 08:21 AM
Well, another positive aspect of shedding 16 million in salary is that maybe we stop hemorrhaging money and we get to stop worrying about the Las Vegas Pacers. Big payrolls are fine as long as the team is packing the house every night. I don't even care if we use all that money immediately. I'd rather have a modest payroll and financial flexibility during a rebuilding process.

I agree. Here's a list of the contracts that could come off the books next year:

Nesterovic - 8.4
Baston - 1.97
Daniels - 7.35 (team option)
S. Williams - 2.416 (team option)
Foster - 6.175 (expiring)
Diogu - 3.946 (qualifying offer)
Graham - .826 (expiring)

There's a good chance that some of these players will be dealt before then, but that's a little over $31 million in possible cap space!

purdue101
06-26-2008, 08:41 AM
I agree. Here's a list of the contracts that could come off the books next year:

Nesterovic - 8.4
Baston - 1.97
Daniels - 7.35 (team option)
S. Williams - 2.416 (team option)
Foster - 6.175 (expiring)
Diogu - 3.946 (qualifying offer)
Graham - .826 (expiring)

There's a good chance that some of these players will be dealt before then, but that's a little over $31 million in possible cap space!

That's not really 31 million in cap space b/c we were over the cap to begin with. We were just under the luxury tax threshold.

Assuming Danny is extended at 9 million per season, we exercise Shawne's option, and DO NOT exercise Quis (which we shouldn't), we will be at about 51 million in commited salary for next season (including 11 & 17). Keep in mind, this also assumes we don't trade tins or murphy and get an expiring back.

The cap will be around 58 and the luxury around 66. So.....we could go spend about 7-8 million in FA next summer to max us to the cap. We could also then use our MLE and still be under the 66 tax.

purdue101
06-26-2008, 08:44 AM
That's not really 31 million in cap space b/c we were over the cap to begin with. We were just under the luxury tax threshold.

Assuming Danny is extended at 9 million per season, we exercise Shawne's option, and DO NOT exercise Quis (which we shouldn't), we will be at about 51 million in commited salary for next season (including 11 & 17). Keep in mind, this also assumes we don't trade tins or murphy and get an expiring back.

The cap will be around 58 and the luxury around 66. So.....we could go spend about 7-8 million in FA next summer to max us to the cap. We could also then use our MLE and still be under the 66 tax.

If Bird can somehow rope an expring for Tins, we could go get a max caliber FA and still re-sign Danny next summer.

I think Boozer is a FA next summer!! Elton Brand too!

Anyone think NYK would give us Malike Rose for Tins???

Justin Tyme
06-26-2008, 08:48 AM
Any possibilty we can get J.Moon out of Toronto aswell?

I really hope we trade Rasho.
But im very pleased with T.J Ford. His a great PG.

NO! Plus he's a SF, not exactly a position of need.

The interesting thing is how Toronto got him. The Raptors hold a camp for undrafted, BDL, wannabes, etc each year, and Moon was found there. I'd love to see the Pacers do something like this as well. You never now where you'll find a Moon. Plus Bird doesn't have to rack up all those frequent flyer miles traveling all over Europe scouting for the next Runi.:D

2minutes twowa
06-26-2008, 08:48 AM
That's not really 31 million in cap space b/c we were over the cap to begin with. We were just under the luxury tax threshold.

Assuming Danny is extended at 9 million per season, we exercise Shawne's option, and DO NOT exercise Quis (which we shouldn't), we will be at about 51 million in commited salary for next season (including 11 & 17). Keep in mind, this also assumes we don't trade tins or murphy and get an expiring back.

The cap will be around 58 and the luxury around 66. So.....we could go spend about 7-8 million in FA next summer to max us to the cap. We could also then use our MLE and still be under the 66 tax.

You're right. One thing is for certain, we went from no flexibility to being a player on the FA market next year! Fantastic!

Justin Tyme
06-26-2008, 08:50 AM
If Bird can somehow rope an expring for Tins, we could go get a max caliber FA and still re-sign Danny next summer.

I think Boozer is a FA next summer!! Elton Brand too!

Anyone think NYK would give us Malike Rose for Tins???

You are joking, right?

You have better odds winning the Hoosier Lottery than NY trading for Tinjury and his contract.

mrknowname
06-26-2008, 09:24 AM
we won't be signing any big name free agents. we will resign granger though

Major Cold
06-26-2008, 10:23 AM
By resigning Granger we will eat some of that 16 million. But we should be able to get a good player. Let's not look for a lights out player. Just one that fits well in this system:

Gooden's rebounding and hustle would be nice if Foster is no longer here.

We won't be able to afford Boozer or Brand unless we do a sign and trade (Dunleavy or Murphy would have nice expirings).

More likely than not there will be teams that underachieved and their stars will be up for wholesale. It may cost a pick or two. But if we already have youth then we would need to package future assets to contend. Lakers did it with Gasol. Boston did it twice with Garnett and Allen. We would have an opportunity. Things are looking up folks. We may not make much of an improvement this year. But we may have the chance to do something special in 09/10 or 10/11.

Gyron
06-26-2008, 10:25 AM
Anybody wonder if Morway might be the man behind getting this deal done and getting realigning the payrolls, etc. They do say he's they genious behind the trades, cap space, contracts, etc.....

rexnom
06-26-2008, 10:30 AM
Morway is probably advising Bird in some financial capacity but let's give credit where credit is due: Larry Bird is mixing it up, for a change.

Gyron
06-26-2008, 10:37 AM
I don't want to take credit from Bird, I'm just wondering if the benefit of promoting David helped bring this one about.

FrenchConnection
06-26-2008, 10:54 AM
I don't want to take credit from Bird, I'm just wondering if the benefit of promoting David helped bring this one about.

Rumor has it that Larry and Morway have been on the same page for a long time, but that Donny saw things differently. I think that Larry's failing will be too much action, not too little. Larry is going to make his opinions know in the press and make quick trades. We have already seen this. Also, he is not averse to rebuilding. I think that we now know that Donny was in fact in charge over the past 4 years and that Larry Bird's Pacers will be a different animal.

edc
06-26-2008, 04:11 PM
I liked this trade....

TJ Ford is still a promising player......

I hate the cleveland trade(varejao, wally and 19pick) because there is no promising player in that trade...nada....

What if TJ Ford become Chris Paul :D

JayRedd
06-26-2008, 04:17 PM
What if TJ Ford become Chris Paul

What if Shade becomes the Easter Bunny?

Trader Joe
06-26-2008, 04:18 PM
What if Shade becomes the Easter Bunny?


He's already the tooth fairy. Don't expect so much from him.

count55
06-26-2008, 04:21 PM
I liked this trade....

TJ Ford is still a promising player......

I hate the cleveland trade(varejao, wally and 19pick) because there is no promising player in that trade...nada....

What if TJ Ford become Chris Paul :D

Listen, if the next three years for Ford can be identical to the last three years for Ford, even including the injury in the 3rd year, I'll be happy with it.

I see no reason to clutter the discussion with a player who is arguably the only untouchable player in the league right now besides LeBron.

edc
06-26-2008, 04:47 PM
Thats why I put a "smiley" after it :D

Im just saying what if TJ Ford transform the Pacers like the way Chris Paul transformed New Orleans.....

JayRedd
06-26-2008, 04:55 PM
Im just saying what if TJ Ford transform the Pacers like the way Chris Paul transformed New Orleans.....

And I'm just saying what if Shade grew two long ears and a cotton tail, and hopped around hiding painted eggs every year on the first Sunday after the second Saturday in April? :D

CableKC
06-26-2008, 05:12 PM
Let's look at the what our likely SalaryCap situation is at the start of the 2009-2010 season based on the following assumptions:

1 ) Tinsley will be bought out.
2 ) Marquis Team option is not picked up
3 ) Shawne's Team Option will be picked up
4 ) Diener picks up his Player Option

Guaranteed Contracts:

TJ Ford - $8.775 mil
Tinsley - $7.2 mil ( bought out )
Dunleavy - $9.78 mil
Shawne - $2.42 mil ( Team Option )
Diener - $1.74 mil ( Player Option )
Murphy - $11.05 mil
#11 - $2.0 mil ( guessing here )
#17 - $1.5 mil ( guessing here )

Likely Total Guaranteed Contracts owed for 7 players - $44.5 mil

Can anyone give me a good guess at what the Salary Cap will likely be ( maybe this year's salary cap would be a good starting point )?

If it's close to $67 mil...then we may have some space to sign a decent Free Agent even after resigning Granger and IMHO Foster ( I'm guessing that Ike is not resigned ).

Another overlooked benefit is that we have about $21 mil in Expiring Contracts......$24 mil if we include Diogu. We can get involved in in some 3 team trades as we near the 2008-2009 trade deadline....again.....we have some options to improve this team.

JayRedd
06-26-2008, 05:18 PM
If it's close to $67 mil...then we may have some space to sign a decent Free Agent even after resigning Granger and IMHO Foster ( I'm guessing that Ike is not resigned ).

This year's cap was $55.63 million, up about $2.5 million from last season. The estimates I've heard is for a similar increase next year that will put it at $58 million-ish. You're thinking luxury tax level, which this year was $67,865,000. That should increase to $70 million-ish next season.

Assuming Danny gets $10 million per, and we fill out the roster with at least a vet or two, we will be over the cap.

CableKC
06-26-2008, 05:24 PM
This year's cap was $55.63 million, up about $2.5 million from last season. The estimates I've heard is for a similar increase next year that will put it at $58 million-ish. You're thinking luxury tax level, which this year was $67,865,000. That should increase to $70 million-ish next season.

Assuming Danny gets $10 million per, and we fill out the roster with at least a vet or two, we will be over the cap.
I never really understood the Salary / Luxury Tax stuff.

We can spend up to 70 mil and not get taxed on it, right?

If we are under the $58 SalaryCap...that means that we can take on salary without sending anything back, right?

JayRedd
06-26-2008, 05:34 PM
We can spend up to 70 mil and not get taxed on it, right?

Sort of. We can spend up to $58 million on whatever we want. Then, from there on up, we can basically only use the Mid-Level Exception or the $2-Million Exception. And as long as our original salaries + our exceptions don't put us over $70 million than we don't get taxed. (At this point, though, Herb has seeming completely ruled out going over the tax for any reason in the near-term, so that wouldn't seem to be even worth discussing.)


If we are under the $58 SalaryCap...that means that we can take on salary without sending anything back, right?

I'm not exactly sure here.

Generally, if one team is under the cap, the salaries don't have to match in a trade.

But if you are, say, $1 million under that cap, I'm not sure that you can trade out, say, $3 million and take back, say, $12 million. Or maybe you can. I'm not sure exactly, but my guess is there is a limit on to what you can take back if what you are taking back puts you over the cap. You'd need a better capologist than I to get an exact answer on that.

Anthem
06-26-2008, 06:30 PM
But if you are, say, $1 million under that cap, I'm not sure that you can trade out, say, $3 million and take back, say, $12 million. Or maybe you can. I'm not sure exactly, but my guess is there is a limit on to what you can take back if what you are taking back puts you over the cap. You'd need a better capologist than I to get an exact answer on that.
You're correct. The trade can't result in you being over the cap.