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View Full Version : Hollinger: Augustin over Westbrook



himikey
06-23-2008, 07:28 AM
The lastest draft number-crunch from ESPN's John Hollinger has some harsh words for Westbrook, but Augustin gets the nod...

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Once again, we boldly venture into the inexact science of predicting what 21-year-olds will do when they're 25.

For those who missed Part I (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-080620) on Friday, we're taking an analytical approach to the draft by looking at college stats from the past six years and seeing which players swam and which ones sunk once they reached the NBA (that's if they reached the NBA).

Friday's piece looked at the frontcourt players. Today we're going to look at the perimeter.
As noted Friday, I've scrapped the formula I used a year ago and instead applied regression analysis, with the goal being to predict a player's third-year Player Efficiency Rating (PER). The idea is that we can use the results to identify current college players who have the attributes of successful NBA players. Obviously, this analysis is only one piece of a scout's work -- factors like conditioning, work ethic, and other intangibles play an important role in a player's development, too.

Nonetheless, a player's college stats have a surprising predictive power when it comes to determining his success. For both frontcourt and perimeter players, the college stats explain, on average, about 82 percent of their pro performance. Another way of saying this is that the average error is about 18 percent. As I said, it's an inexact science.

One important test is how this system fares vs. the actual draft. And as you can see from the side-by-side comparison at the bottom of the page, this method produced a more accurate draft board than the actual draft. In other words, this system has done a better job of sorting out and selecting prospects than NBA teams have done in the draft the past few years. This is true for both frontcourt and perimeter players.

"Perimeter players" actually consists of two groups -- I had to split them into point guards and wings, as the historical projections were much more accurate this way. With all that said, let's dive in.

POINT GUARDS


I'll start with the point guards, since they're the big story here. Dating back to 2002, all 12 point guards with a rating above 14.0 have been first-round picks, and the three above 16.0 were all lottery picks; this mirrors the trend we saw with the frontcourt players.

And as we saw with that group, the players rated between 12.5 and 14.0 tend to be hit and miss -- a Jameer Nelson here, a Steve Logan there -- while those below 12.5 have trouble establishing a career.

<!-- begin table -->
<table class="tablehead widetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Top-rated point guards since 2002</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Player</td> <td>Projected Yr. 3 PER</td> <td>Draft Year</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Chris Paul (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3930)</td> <td>18.40</td> <td>2005</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>T.J. Ford (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3711) </td> <td>16.67</td> <td>2003</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Raymond Felton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3931) </td> <td>16.29</td> <td>2005</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Mike Conley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4246) </td> <td>15.55</td> <td>2007</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Marcus Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4311) </td> <td>15.52</td> <td>2006</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Deron Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3929) </td> <td>15.52</td> <td>2005</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Rajon Rondo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4149) </td> <td>15.23</td> <td>2006</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Jason Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3250) </td> <td>14.73</td> <td> 2002</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Javaris Crittenton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4297) </td> <td>14.51</td> <td>2007</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Devin Harris (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3822) </td> <td>14.40</td> <td>2004</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->
However, the failure rate of players who rate this low isn't as bad as it is for frontcourt players. Of the 30 point guards rated between 10.0 and 12.5, five (Nate Robinson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3947), Jannero Pargo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3660), Chris Duhon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3855), Steve Blake (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3741) and Luke Ridnour (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3717)) became regular rotation players, while two others (Aaron Brooks and Ramon Sessions (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4333)) seem to be well on their way and another two (Travis Diener (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3964) and Marcus Banks (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3716)) can't be ruled out. That said, the odds of failure are still far greater than the odds of success for a player rated this low.

Below 10.0, the only two point guards to establish any kind of traction in their careers are Chris Quinn (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4192) and Royal Ivey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3854); most didn't even get a sniff of the NBA.
Knowing the history, let's take a look at our point guards for this year, where the top-rated point player is, well ... let's just say it's not who you think.
Solid first-rounders


D.J. Augustin (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19083), Texas (14.88); Derrick Rose (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19132), Memphis (14.69); Mario Chalmers (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18877), Kansas (14.03); Jerryd Bayless (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19137), Arizona (14.03).

Surprisingly, nobody rates as a slam-dunk lottery pick, not even Derrick Rose. In fact, Rose came in only second here, partly because he had such a slow start to his freshman season before picking up steam at the end.

Is this enough reason to draft Augustin ahead of Rose? No, because the margin between them is miniscule, and even if their career PERs end up the same, Rose will have far more defensive value given his superior size.

The bigger question is whether a team can justify taking Rose ahead of Michael Beasley (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19133), whose 19.19 is the best mark by anyone in the six years for which I have data. Yes, Beasley appears to be a space cadet and that's troubling, but what these numbers say to me is that the talent disparity is simply too big. That is, unless Beasley is such a train wreck off the court that he sabotages his own career, he's probably going to have much better results than Rose. In fact, you can make a strong case that Kevin Love (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19130) should rank ahead of Rose on draft boards as well.

Here's another interesting fact: Rose rated slightly higher as a wing (15.34) than as a point guard. That seems crazy, but he has the size to play the 2 if he has to. Just humor me and store that in the recesses of your brain in case you need to access it in a few years.
Finally, it's notable that Chalmers, though widely presumed to be a fringe first-rounder, rates even with Bayless and pretty close to Rose and Augustin.
Fringe first-rounder


Mike Green, Butler (12.75)

Who? The four-year player from Butler is on the fence to even get drafted, but the numbers say he has a good chance at becoming a decent pro.

Better update that passport


Drew Neitzel (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19119), Michigan State (11.14); George Hill (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19291), IUPUI (11.05); Sean Singletary (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19071), Virginia (10.88); Tyrone Brazelton (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19252), Western Kentucky (10.84); Brian Roberts (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19296), Dayton (10.73); Jamar Butler, Ohio St. (9.72); Mike Taylor (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19295), Iowa St. (8.32).
Despite my hopes that Singletary would double the NBA's contingent of Virginia Cavaliers, it appears he's facing long odds.
Taylor is the only one of these players who has been mentioned as a first-round possibility, but he has the worst projection of any of them. But note that Taylor's numbers are from his 2006-07 season at Iowa State.

The others look like second-rounders at best.

WINGS


OK, on to the wing men. This isn't exactly a banner year for the 2 and 3 positions, as we're about to see, but a few players should be able to push legitimately into the first round.
First, a look at history. You'll notice the same story as with the point guards and centers. A rating above 16 pretty much guarantees a lottery spot; in fact every player rated above 15 in the last six years was a lottery pick, and every player above 14 was a first-rounder.
As with the other spots, things get dodgy between 12.5 and 14, where we've had a few very good players (Caron Butler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3608) and Ben Gordon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3820)) and a couple of very bad ones (Julius Hodge (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3946) and Vincent Yarbrough (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3630)). Most but not all were first-rounders.
The interesting part for wings is that players rated between 11 and 12.5 have been much more successful than those at other positions -- 15 of the 38 such players in the past six drafts eventually cracked a pro rotation, and a couple (Kevin Martin (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3843) and Mo Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3750)) became really good.
For players rated below 11.0, the luck ran out -- we see a few rotation players but no long-term starters. But the odds of bucking the projections still appear better for wings than for players at any other position.

<!-- begin table -->
<table class="tablehead widetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Top-rated wings since 2002</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Player</td> <td>Projected Yr. 3 PER</td> <td>Draft Year</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Dwyane Wade (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3708) </td> <td>17.81</td> <td> 2003</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Carmelo Anthony (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3706) </td> <td>17.38</td> <td>2003</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Luol Deng (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3824) </td> <td>16.71</td> <td>2004</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Rudy Gay (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4136) </td> <td>16.21</td> <td>2006</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Julian Wright (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4291) </td> <td>15.86</td> <td>2007</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Rashad McCants (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3940) </td> <td>15.41 </td> <td>2005</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Andre Iguodala (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3826) </td> <td> 15.16 </td> <td>2004</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Danny Granger (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3943) </td> <td>14.55</td> <td> 2005</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Shawne Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4145) </td> <td>14.37</td> <td>2006</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Josh Howard (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3732) </td> <td>14.31 </td> <td>2003</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->
Looking at our top candidates this year, they're going to need to buck those odds, because only a couple project as long-term rotation players in the NBA.
Solid first-rounders


Joe Alexander (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19096), West Virginia (14.58).
That's it. Thanks for dropping by, everyone.
We'll see a couple other highly-touted wings further down the list, but Alexander is the only one who cracks the threshold of a typical lottery selection. And in this case, the fact that Alexander took up the game at a late age means we're probably understating his pro potential.

Fringe first-rounders


Donte Greene (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19135), Syracuse (13.17); O.J. Mayo (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19129), USC (13.00); Chris Douglas-Roberts (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19166), Memphis (12.78).
This is going to surprise some people, as Mayo has been projected as high as No. 3 in the draft. Truth be told, in this draft he probably deserves to be a lottery pick even going by these ratings -- he's rated 16th overall, and his one season of stats means his estimate is more prone to error than the projections of players who stayed in school longer. But he'll be 21 on November 5, and this system takes age into account when projecting potential.
Greene and Douglas-Roberts are where everyone expects, so I don't have much to add here.
The riff-raff


Jamont Gordon (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19162), Mississippi St. (12.35); Reggie Williams (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19169), VMI (12.22); Pat Calathes (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19231), St. Joe's (11.95); Eric Gordon (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19131), Indiana (11.93); Russell Westbrook (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19241), UCLA (11.91); Malik Hairston (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18842), Oregon (11.85); Anthony Randolph (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19157), LSU (11.78).

OK, another controversial outcome. Both Gordon and Westbrook are projected lottery picks, but neither fares well here.
Though Westbrook is seen by many as a point guard, he actually rated even worse when I tried him there. It's possible he was just playing out of position at UCLA, but the projections say it's not worth using a top-10 pick to find out.
Eric Gordon's rating is less surprising to me -- subjectively, I've been suspicious of him for some time, and I'm a little unsure what has everyone so excited.
I also tried Randolph here, since some scouts see him as a 3 rather than a 4, and his rating at small forward was better than his awful one as a power forward. It's still hard to put him in the first round based on these numbers, but he's at least draftable.
Jamont Gordon shapes up as a bit of a sleeper -- he rated even higher as a point guard, and at 6-4 could be a decent third guard backing up both positions. At the moment most see him as a second-rounder.
Fringe second-rounders


Bill Walker (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19077), Kansas St. (11.74); Kyle Weaver (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19168), Washington St. (11.61); Brandon Rush (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18881), Kansas (11.34); Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA (11.27); Josh Duncan (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19253), Xavier (11.25); Courtney Lee (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19224), Western Kentucky (11.17).

Because of the general lack of depth in this draft, a number of these players are projected as potential first-rounders for whom the numbers say buyer beware.
Walker may be the most interesting of the bunch since the evaluation period covers a time when he was coming back from a serious knee injury, so it's possible he'll be a much better pro than this projection indicates. Rush may also have a bit more value than the numbers show because of his rep as a defensive ace.
Better update that passport


Davon Jefferson (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18876), USC (10.99); Chris Lofton (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19092), Tennessee (10.80); DeMarcus Nelson (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19246), Duke (10.78); Sonny Weems (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19288), Arkansas (10.76); Shan Foster (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19236), Vanderbilt (10.58); Richard Roby (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18887), Colorado (9.77); Gary Forbes (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19258), Massachusetts (9.49); J.R. Giddens, New Mexico (9.16); Bryce Taylor (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19122), Oregon (8.79); Marcelus Kemp (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18980), Nevada (8.16).

No big surprises here, as none of these players are likely to go before the middle of the second round.
SUMMING UP

For posterity's sake, here's how the top 15 picks rank in this year's draft, regardless of position. As you can see, my system rates it a strong draft for frontcourt players and a weak one on the perimeter.

<!-- begin table -->




<table class="tablehead widetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">2008 Draft: Top 15 Projected Yr-3 PER</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Player</td> <td>Projected Yr. 3 PER</td> <td>School</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Michael Beasley (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19133) </td> <td>19.19</td> <td> Kansas St.</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Kevin Love (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19130) </td> <td>17.80</td> <td>UCLA</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Darrell Arthur (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19062) </td> <td>15.82</td> <td>Kansas </td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Marreese Speights (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19161) </td> <td>15.02</td> <td>Florida</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>D.J. Augustin (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19083) </td> <td>14.88</td> <td>Texas</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Derrick Rose (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19132) </td> <td>14.69</td> <td>Memphis </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Joe Alexander </td> <td> 14.58 </td> <td>West Virginia</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Brook Lopez (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19042) </td> <td>14.21</td> <td>Stanford </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Mario Chalmers (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18877) </td> <td>14.03</td> <td>Kansas</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Jerryd Bayless (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19137) </td> <td>14.03 </td> <td>Arizona </td> </tr><tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Roy Hibbert (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=18974) </td> <td>14.02</td> <td>Georgetown</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Kosta Koufos (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19155) </td> <td>13.32 </td> <td>Ohio State </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Donte Greene </td> <td>13.17</td> <td>Syracuse </td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Darnell Jackson (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19235) </td> <td>13.17 </td> <td>Kansas </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> DeAndre Jordan (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2008&playerId=19136)
</td> <td>13.17</td> <td>Texas A&M </td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table -->
Finally, as promised above, here's how my system rated the top college perimeter players in the past six drafts, alongside who was actually chosen in the first round of each draft. (The same kind of info was provided on Friday for frontcourt players.) As we saw in the analysis of frontcourt prospects, while the system isn't perfect, it's a clear improvement on what actually took place.

<hr> <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tablehead widetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Top-rated perimeter players of recent drafts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Player</td> <td>Proj. Yr 3</td> <td>Year</td> <td>Actual order</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Jay Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3600)</td> <td>14.73 </td> <td>2002</td> <td>Jay Williams</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Mike Dunleavy (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3601) </td> <td>14.28</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Dunleavy</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Dajuan Wagner (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3604) </td> <td>13.97</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Wagner</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Caron Butler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3608) </td> <td>13.78</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Butler</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Steve Logan** </td> <td>13.61</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Jones</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Vincent Yarbrough (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3630)** </td> <td>13.60</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Dixon</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Casey Jacobsen (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3620) </td> <td>12.98</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Rush</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Tayshaun Prince (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3621) </td> <td>12.57</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Jacobsen</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Kareem Rush (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3618) </td> <td>12.55</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Prince</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Tony Akins* </td> <td>11.95</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Frank Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3623)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Fred Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3612) </td> <td>11.84</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Salmons</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>John Salmons (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3624) </td> <td>11.76</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Chris Jefferies (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3626)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Juan Dixon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3615) </td> <td>11.56</td> <td>2002</td> <td>Dan Dickau (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3625)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td colspan="4">
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Dwyane Wade (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3708) </td> <td> 17.81</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Anthony</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Carmelo Anthony (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3706) Wade</td> <td>17.38</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Wade</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>T.J. Ford (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3711) Hinrich</td> <td>16.67</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Hinrich</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Josh Howard (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3732) 14.31 </td> <td>14.31</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Ford</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Kirk Hinrich (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3710) </td> <td>13.65</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Hayes</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Luke Walton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3735)** </td> <td> 13.07</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Marcus Banks (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3716)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Reece Gaines (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3718) </td> <td>12.57</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Ridnour</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Jarvis Hayes (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3713) </td> <td>12.35</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Gaines</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Kyle Korver (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3754)** </td> <td>12.16</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Troy Bell (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3719)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Luke Ridnour (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3717) </td> <td>12.08</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Dahntay Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3723)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Marquis Daniels (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3764)* </td> <td>11.79</td> <td>2003</td> <td>Howard</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td colspan="4">
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Luol Deng (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3824) </td> <td>16.71</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Gordon</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Andre Iguodala (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3826) </td> <td>15.16</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Harris</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Devin Harris (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3822) </td> <td>14.40</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Childress</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Josh Childress (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3823) </td> <td>13.78</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Deng</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Ben Gordon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3820) </td> <td>13.78</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Iguodala</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Jameer Nelson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3837) </td> <td>13.74</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Jackson</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Delonte West (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3841) </td> <td>13.55</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Snyder</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Luke Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3827) </td> <td>13.50</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Nelson</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Kirk Snyder (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3833) </td> <td>13.24</td> <td>2004</td> <td>West</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Tony Allen (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3842) </td> <td>12.43</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Allen</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Blake Stepp** </td> <td>12.25</td> <td>2004</td> <td>Kevin Martin (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3843)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td colspan="4">
</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Chris Paul (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3930)</td> <td> 18.40</td> <td>2005</td> <td> Williams</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Raymond Felton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3931) </td> <td>16.29</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Paul</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Deron Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3929) </td> <td>15.52</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Felton</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Rashad McCants (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3940) </td> <td>15.41</td> <td>2005</td> <td>McCants</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Danny Granger (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3943) </td> <td>14.55</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Antoine Wright (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3941)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Jarrett Jack (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3948) </td> <td>14.20</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Joey Graham (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3942)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Julius Hodge (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3946) </td> <td>13.89</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Granger</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Francisco Garcia (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3949) </td> <td>13.48</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Hodge</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Aaron Miles (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4007)* </td> <td>13.39</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Robinson</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Linas Kleiza (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3953) </td> <td>12.37</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Jack</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Travis Diener (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3964)** </td> <td>12.35</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Garcia</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Jawad Williams* </td> <td>12.31</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Luther Head (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3950)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Travis Diener (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3964)** </td> <td>12.35</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Garcia</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Nate Robinson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=3947) </td> <td>12.25</td> <td>2005</td> <td>Kleiza</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td colspan="4">
</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Rudy Gay (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4136) </td> <td>16.21</td> <td>2006</td> <td>Morrison</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Marcus Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4311) </td> <td>15.52</td> <td>2006</td> <td>Roy</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Rajon Rondo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4149) </td> <td>15.23</td> <td>2006</td> <td>Randy Foye (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4135)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Shawne Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4145) </td> <td>14.37</td> <td>2006</td> <td>Gay</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Brandon Roy (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4134) </td> <td>14.17</td> <td>2006</td> <td>Redick</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Jordan Farmar (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4154)</td> <td>14.07</td> <td>2006</td> <td> Brewer </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Hassan Adams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4182)** </td> <td>13.79</td> <td>2006</td> <td>Rodney Carney (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4144)</td> </tr><tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Renaldo Balkman (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4148) </td> <td>13.75</td> <td>2006</td> <td> Williams </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Ronnie Brewer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4142) </td> <td>13.44</td> <td>2006</td> <td>Quincy Douby (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4147)</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Daniel Gibson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4170) </td> <td> 13.30</td> <td>2006</td> <td> Balkman</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> P.J. Tucker (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4163)** </td> <td>13.08 </td> <td>2006</td> <td>Rondo</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Dee Brown (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4174)** </td> <td>12.95</td> <td>2006</td> <td> Williams</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Kyle Lowry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4152) </td> <td>12.75</td> <td>2006</td> <td> Lowry</td> </tr><tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Adam Morrison (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4131) </td> <td>12.71</td> <td>2006</td> <td> Shannon Brown (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4153) </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> J.J. Redick (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4139) </td> <td>12.63</td> <td>2006</td> <td>Farmar </td> </tr><tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td colspan="4">
</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Julian Wright (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4291) </td> <td> 15.86</td> <td>2007</td> <td> Conley</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Thaddeus Young (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4290) </td> <td>15.31</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Brewer</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Javaris Crittenton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4297) </td> <td>14.51</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Law</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Jeff Green (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4247) </td> <td>14.20</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Young</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Rodney Stuckey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4293) </td> <td>14.02</td> <td>2007</td> <td> Wright</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Taurean Green (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4328)** </td> <td>13.64</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Thornton</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td> Corey Brewer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4285) </td> <td>13.55 </td> <td>2007</td> <td>Stuckey</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Marcus Williams </td> <td>13.38</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Nick Young (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4294)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Wilson Chandler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4301) </td> <td>13.01</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Crittenton</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Dominic McGuire (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4338)** </td> <td>12.90</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Cook</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Acie Law (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4289) </td> <td>12.83</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Dudley</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Reyshawn Terry** </td> <td> 12.76</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Morris Almond (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4303) </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Jarrious Jackson** </td> <td> 12.08</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Aaron Brooks (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4304)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Jared Dudley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4300) </td> <td> 11.94</td> <td>2007</td> <td>Arron Afflalo </td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td> Al Thornton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4292) </td> <td> 11.76</td> <td>2007</td> <td> Alando Tucker (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?statsId=4307)</td></tr></tbody></table>

Will Galen
06-23-2008, 07:41 AM
The lastest draft number-crunch from ESPN's John Hollinger has some harsh words for Westbrook, but Augustin gets the nod...


Where do you get that? He didn't have harsh words for Rose and he didn't pick Augustin over Rose. That's just the way the numbers come up and then he made an excuse for Rose.

What he actually said was, I quote; Surprisingly, nobody rates as a slam-dunk lottery pick, not even Derrick Rose. In fact, Rose came in only second here, partly because he had such a slow start to his freshman season before picking up steam at the end.

Is this enough reason to draft Augustin ahead of Rose? No, because the margin between them is miniscule, and even if their career PERs end up the same, Rose will have far more defensive value given his superior size.

count55
06-23-2008, 07:44 AM
Where do you get that? What he actually said was, I quote; Surprisingly, nobody rates as a slam-dunk lottery pick, not even Derrick Rose. In fact, Rose came in only second here, partly because he had such a slow start to his freshman season before picking up steam at the end.

Is this enough reason to draft Augustin ahead of Rose? No, because the margin between them is miniscule, and even if their career PERs end up the same, Rose will have far more defensive value given his superior size.

Westbrook was listed as a wing:


OK, another controversial outcome. Both Gordon and Westbrook are projected lottery picks, but neither fares well here.
Though Westbrook is seen by many as a point guard, he actually rated even worse when I tried him there. It's possible he was just playing out of position at UCLA, but the projections say it's not worth using a top-10 pick to find out. Eric Gordon's rating is less surprising to me -- subjectively, I've been suspicious of him for some time, and I'm a little unsure what has everyone so excited.

RomanGabriel
06-23-2008, 07:50 AM
Interesting stuff. Large margin of error, but it does confirm what I've been telling folks up here all along - Beasley will be (and currently is) a better player than Rose. And it's good to see my man Kevin Love getting love.

PR07
06-23-2008, 07:52 AM
Can we draft Mike Green in he second round? He's going to be a solid pro at the next level.

I'm fine if we draft DJ Augustin. It looks like he'll be a good, even if not great, starting PG.

DisplacedKnick
06-23-2008, 08:28 AM
I couldn't argue picking Augustin over Westbrook. Augustin's a pure PG with some very obvious strengths and some equally obvious deficiencies - but if he gets with a team and system that utilizes the strengths and can help cover his deficiencies he could be a very, very good pro.

Westbrook has more size and is a better athlete but he doesn't have either PG or SG skills. He'll be a very solid defender but if the skills don't come he'll be a limited role player for his career.

Rose is another story - even though his hot tournament may have him a touch overrated, he's still a premier player.

indygeezer
06-23-2008, 08:33 AM
Can we draft Mike Green in he second round? He's going to be a solid pro at the next level.

I'm fine if we draft DJ Augustin. It looks like he'll be a good, even if not great, starting PG.



I really enjoyed watching Green play this year. I'd love for the P's to grab him and give him some time in the NBDL.

Will Galen
06-23-2008, 08:38 AM
. . . it does confirm what I've been telling folks up here all along - Beasley will be (and currently is) a better player than Rose.

Your not saying anything new, that's what most people think. Even Rose says Beasley is better. But if Rose turns out to be anything like the two point guards he's being compared with (Paul and D.Williams) then he's the best pick for a lot of teams.

If you cloned them I would say 5 roses would beat 5 Beasley's.

I know five roses would win with the girls. (giggle, snort)

Trader Joe
06-23-2008, 08:54 AM
I really enjoyed watching Green play this year. I'd love for the P's to grab him and give him some time in the NBDL.

Green is probably the reason Butler lost to the Vols in the second round. I'm not sure I've ever seen someone collapse quite like that. He was overdribbling and forcing shots all over the place.

As far as the article, I'll give it a big meh. Anyone who can concoct a system that says Augustin is better than Rose doesn't deserve a whole lot of attention from me.

Although, him calling Beasley a space cadet made me chuckle.

QuickRelease
06-23-2008, 09:18 AM
Your not saying anything new, that's what most people think. Even Rose says Beasley is better. But if Rose turns out to be anything like the two point guards he's being compared with (Paul and D.Williams) then he's the best pick for a lot of teams.

If you cloned them I would say 5 roses would beat 5 Beasley's.

I know five roses would win with the girls. (giggle, snort)

:rimshot:

Anthem
06-23-2008, 09:56 AM
Interesting that Chalmers rates so high. I'd love to trade back in and nab him.

count55
06-23-2008, 10:21 AM
Interesting that Chalmers rates so high. I'd love to trade back in and nab him.

I'd be happy to get a chance at Speights @ 11 and trading to pick up Chalmers with a later 1st rounder. Just not quite sure how to pull it off.

Anthem
06-23-2008, 10:44 AM
I'd be happy to get a chance at Speights @ 11 and trading to pick up Chalmers with a later 1st rounder. Just not quite sure how to pull it off.
Toronto, I guess.

Naptown_Seth
06-23-2008, 02:17 PM
Is this enough reason to draft Augustin ahead of Rose? No, because when they played head to head in the tourney Rose obliterated him.
;) I'm a stats nut but even I wonder a bit on some of this. Still waiting on Felton to be better than Deron, or Shawne to be better than Roy. Plus Crittenton and Marcus Williams both stand as examples of highly rated PGs in the same range he's putting DJ.

I said it elsewhere, DJ played straight up vs Rose and Chalmers and neither game went well. He got torn up on defense and forced his own offense going the other way.

Good kid, love him as a pick around 18. Looks like he's getting drafted a lot higher than that.

Naptown_Seth
06-23-2008, 02:31 PM
Rose is another story - even though his hot tournament may have him a touch overrated, he's still a premier player.
Well I think Hollinger has brushed past one aspect, and that's trending during the season. He mentions Rose being hurt by the slow start and it appears he gives the season totals the full weight. I don't think one hot game matters, but certainly a FRSH or even a SOPH who just became the main guy (DJ) has to be adjusted as they get up to speed during the season. Plus for most teams the competition ramps up toward the 2nd half of the season.

During the year I started off coolish about Rose myself, same with Gordon. But seeing Rose progress took me out of the "should wait a year" to "he's ready to go". Contrast this with Collison and DJ who both started fairly well in my view and lost a bit when they hit some tough challenges.