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MyFavMartin
06-10-2008, 01:29 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=MockDraft-080609

Chad Ford's Mock Draft, Version 4.0: Picks 1-30
Ford

By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
(Archive)

Updated: June 9, 2008

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Now that we are one week into NBA workouts, loaded down with combine results and measurements and getting word of GMs becoming very active on the trade front, we're starting to get a slightly clearer picture of what a number of NBA teams are looking for with their pick(s).

Minnesota brought in Brook Lopez on the first day. Indiana looked at point guards D.J. Augustin and Ty Lawson. The Knicks worked out four of the draft's best athletes.

And the first top prospect to work out for the Miami Heat wasn't Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose it was O.J. Mayo in Chicago on Saturday.

As we move forward, one major deadline looms over the draft: Underclassmen have until June 16 to withdraw from the draft. Most of the top underclassmen have hired agents, meaning they're in the draft for good. But a few potential first-rounders, such as Arizona's Chase Budinger, KU's Mario Chalmers and North Carolina's Ty Lawson, are still on the fence.

While there aren't a lot of major changes in this mock draft, it will likely need a serious adjustment or two on June 17.

Until then, here's our best educated guess, after talking to numerous NBA team sources, about how the draft might play out in June.

Remember, this mock draft isn't a report of what I think teams should do, but what they are likely to do. To see a ranking of players' talent, check out our Top 100.

CHAD FORD'S MOCK DRAFT
PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Chicago


Derrick Rose
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 205
Age: 19
School: Memphis

The skinny:The big news out of Chicago is that the team still lacks a head coach. That drama has overshadowed the Bulls' quest to find the best player in the draft.

While most (though not all) signals still point to Rose being the pick, the truth is we're not hearing much of anything out of Chicago right now. The Bulls need to settle on a coach after whiffing on two high-profile candidates.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Miami


Michael Beasley
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 235
Age: 19
School: Kansas State

The skinny: The Heat continue to wait and hope that somehow Rose falls to them at No. 2. If the Bulls take Rose, there are growing signals out of Miami that the Heat will either trade the pick or select O.J. Mayo at No. 2. The Heat were in Chicago on Saturday for a private workout with Mayo and the results were very positive.

If the Heat want Mayo, they have a tough choice. Minnesota and Seattle don't have any tradable assets the Heat want. That would leave Miami trying to cut a deal with Memphis and hoping that Mayo's still on the board at No. 5. It's a risk but it might be worth it given what the Grizzlies could send back in return.

I'm leaving Beasley here at No. 2 because the most likely scenario remains another team moving up to No. 2 to get him. But I really don't see Beasley wearing a Heat uniform.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Minnesota


O.J. Mayo
Position: SG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 195
Age: 20
School: USC

The skinny: This is the most difficult team to peg right now.

Brook Lopez was the first guy in to work out for the Wolves. The Wolves have a need at center, and Lopez would be a good fit. Size sells in the draft, and Lopez is the only big man who looks like he's worth a pick this high. However, he doesn't have the upside of many of the other players in the draft, and some scouts believe he's going to be a bust. Lopez shot the ball well in the workout and impressed the Wolves with his skill set. But his very average athleticism might give them pause. Al Jefferson isn't a great athlete either, and it might be tough for the Wolves to have both in the frontcourt.

That could lead the Wolves to roll the dice on a more talented player, such as O.J. Mayo or Danilo Gallinari.

Mayo would duplicate what they already have in the backcourt with Randy Foye and Rashad McCants. But he's better than both of those guys and would give the Wolves some star power alongside Jefferson. It's too early to tell whether his reluctance to work out for them will affect whether they take him or not.

Gallinari is a better fit. The Wolves could use a good small forward. They tried Corey Brewer there last year, but he struggled. Gallinari and Brewer would complement each other well. Brewer is an excellent defender and Gallinari is an offensive genius.

The Wolves appear to be high on all three, but I'm keeping Mayo here because he's the best of the group.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Seattle


Jerryd Bayless
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 190
Age: 19
School: Arizona

The skinny: The Sonics need backcourt help, and O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless might be the two best options available at the position. Sources say the Sonics are leaning heavily toward Bayless, even if Mayo is on the board.

Bayless is an excellent athlete who can really shoot. Of all the combo guards in the draft, he also has shown the most ability, so far, to run the point. Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson have not excelled at the position in Seattle. So of the first four picks in the draft, this one looks like the closest to a lock.

With one caveat, that is: I spoke with a couple of teams that say the Sonics have called them and made the pick available.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Memphis


Kevin Love
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 275
Age: 19
School: UCLA

The skinny: The Grizzlies need a big man, and three interesting names could be on the board here. They could go the safe route and take Brook Lopez, gamble a little more and take Kevin Love or make a major leap of faith and grab a player with tremendous upside in Anthony Randolph.

If I were drafting for Memphis, I'd take Randolph, who has a great combination of size and athleticism. He's a proven rebounder at the college level who has a little bit of Chris Bosh in him. He needs to improve his perimeter game and his strength, and he's not completely NBA-ready, but his upside and fit both look good for Memphis.

That said, the strong feeling I got from talking to sources close to the situation in Memphis is that Love is the favorite. His toughness, rebounding and ability to score in the paint are unquestioned -- and he would fit some major needs for the Grizzlies. There are still questions about his athleticism, but he's got talent.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Grizzlies try to move up to nab Michael Beasley. They have some pieces that could interest Miami -- namely a gunner in Mike Miller and a point guard in Kyle Lowry.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


New York


Anthony Randolph
Position: PF
Height: 6-11
Weight: 220
Age: 18
School: LSU

The skinny: The Knicks want a lead guard who can push the ball and hit an open jumper. Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo are their top choices, but if they are off the board, New York will have a tough choice to make.

I had Danilo Gallinari here in the first two versions of this mock draft, thanks to his Italian ties with Mike D'Antoni.

However, a Suns source told me that D'Antoni wasn't a huge fan of Gallinari when he was shown some tape during the season, which has made me seriously reconsider that forecast.

The Knicks could gamble on one of another pair of point guards. D.J. Augustin is a great leader, a fantastic playmaker and the closest thing to Steve Nash in this draft. That will be a plus for D'Antoni. Russell Westbrook is also intriguing. He's a top-notch athlete, a tenacious defender and an emerging playmaker.

Westbrook has already worked out in New York, and I hear he was impressive. I had Augustin here in my previous mock draft, but after getting some feedback on his workouts, I think that could be too high.

Given the Knicks' need for talent over position right now, I think they'll take the best player on the board: Randolph. He can play multiple positions on the floor and give the Knicks some much-needed size and length in the frontcourt.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


L.A. Clippers


Eric Gordon
Position: SG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 215
Age: 19
School: Indiana

The skinny: The Clippers need a point guard, but given the makeup of their team, they're probably better off finding one via trade or free agency.

With Corey Maggette likely hitting free agency, the Clippers will need a big-time scorer who can shoot and get to the rim. Eric Gordon appeared to be a top-three talent before a late-season slump. He looks like a bigger, better version of Ben Gordon.

The Clippers will also have interest in Danilo Gallinari here. Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy has always loved point forwards, and Gallinari's basketball IQ is off the charts.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Milwaukee


Danilo Gallinari
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 212
Age: 19
Country: Italy

The skinny: It's tough to project the Bucks right now. New GM John Hammond is ready to make changes, but what kind? Their biggest need is at small forward, but this is probably too high for Donte Greene or Joe Alexander.

That leaves Danilo Gallinari, a point forward who can handle the ball and hit the midrange jumper -- and has winner written all over him. He's not the most athletic guy in the draft, but his upside might be too much to pass up here.

The other option is to go with Russell Westbrook. One thing Hammond wants to emphasize is defense, and Westbrook could be an excellent addition. He can play both guard positions and be a Leandro Barbosa-style scoring threat off the bench.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Charlotte


Brook Lopez
Position: C
Height: 7-0
Weight: 260
Age: 20
School: Stanford

The skinny: Brook Lopez could go as high as No. 3 to the Timberwolves. He could get a look from the Grizzlies at No. 5 and the Knicks at No. 6, too. However, he also could slip.

As I wrote from Orlando, a lot of teams are questioning Lopez's upside. Teams love size, but they don't see Lopez as a star NBA player.

The Bobcats have been looking for a big man so they can slide Emeka Okafor over to the 4 full-time. Lopez would be a great complement to Okafor up front.

The other options are DeAndre Jordan, if Larry Brown is willing to gamble, or Kevin Love, if he wants a proven college player who will "play the right way."

The team could also take a point guard -- Russell Westbrook would be an excellent complement to Raymond Felton.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


New Jersey


DeAndre Jordan
Position: C
Height: 7-0
Weight: 255
Age: 20
School: Texas A&M

The skinny: The Nets are looking to make major changes this summer, so it's tough to project exactly what they'll do. They are set in the backcourt with Devin Harris and Vince Carter. They're set at small forward with Richard Jefferson, though sources say he's on the trading block.

What they need is a dominant low-post player. They've had some success with Sean Williams and Josh Boone, but neither has the upside or size of DeAndre Jordan. While he definitely is a work in progress, this is the same position where the Lakers netted Andrew Bynum a few years ago.

Other options include Ohio State's Kosta Koufos, KU's Darrell Arthur and Florida's Marreese Speights.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Indiana


Russell Westbrook
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 189
Age: 19
School: UCLA

The skinny:The Pacers have been eyeing D.J. Augustin and Russell Westbrook for a while.

Augustin has already come in for a workout, and Westbrook will be visiting soon. If the Pacers were forced to choose between the two, I actually think they'd probably lean toward Westbrook, who has more upside. His athleticism, defense and ability to penetrate would all be welcome in Indiana. If he were ever to get a rock-solid jump shot, he'd have a chance to be a star.

The Pacers could also go other directions if they find a way to move Jermaine O'Neal for a veteran point guard such as T.J. Ford or Kirk Hinrich. If they land a good veteran point guard, someone like Darrell Arthur could be the choice.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Sacramento


D.J. Augustin
Position: PG
Height: 6-0
Weight: 180
Age: 20
School: Texas

The skinny:If D.J. Augustin is still on the board here, the Kings will have to pull the trigger. Their only decent point guard is Beno Udrih, and he's an unrestricted free agent this summer. Augustin's shooting ability and floor leadership would be welcome in Sacramento. The team does still need a 4, but Augustin is too good to pass on here.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Portland


Joe Alexander
Position: SF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 220
Age: 21
School: West Virginia

The skinny: Right now it seems unlikely the Blazers will actually keep this pick. They are loaded with young players and have a history of being very active on the trade market. GM Kevin Pritchard is already burning up the phone lines. I think he either packages some of his young players with this pick and moves up or he trades for a veteran.

If the Blazers keep the pick, it might be Joe Alexander, who could be the sleeper of the draft. His combination of size, athleticism and shooting ability has GMs drooling. His basketball IQ is still questionable, but on a team like the Blazers, his versatility could become an immediate asset.

Donte Greene is also a possibility here.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Golden State


Darrell Arthur
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 225
Age: 20
School: Kansas

The skinny: The Warriors are at a crossroads. The team has a plethora of free agents this summer and a veteran point guard, Baron Davis, who wants a big extension. Will they sign everyone or is it time to start thinking about rebuilding?

Either way, at this point, Darrell Arthur should be an excellent pick. Arthur might not have done as well as hoped with his measurements and combine scores, but his ability to score in a variety of ways makes him a great pick at this point in the draft.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Phoenix
(via Atlanta)


Brandon Rush
Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 205
Age: 22
School: Kansas

The skinny: The Suns have a long history of trading or selling their first-round picks, and given their current situation, it wouldn't shock me if they do so again. The Suns want to win now and have been willing to mortgage the future to do it.

If they keep the pick Donte Greene and JaVale McGee might have more upside, but the Suns are in it to win it, and Brandon Rush should be able to step in and immediately play. His combination of shooting, athleticism, defense and basketball IQ, along with a newly minted championship pedigree, will make him tough to pass up.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Philadelphia


Marreese Speights
Position: C
Height: 6-10
Weight: 245
Age: 19
School: Florida

The skinny: The Sixers are still looking for a low-post banger. If they can't get Elton Brand this summer, they'll have to seriously consider Marreese Speights. He does a lot of the same things that Brand does, he just doesn't have the conditioning or motivation.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Toronto


Donte Greene
Position: SF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 225
Age: 20
School: Syracuse

The skinny: Donte Greene has great upside as a combo forward who can do a little of everything. He's just a little raw. However, his ability to shoot and run the floor make this a home run of a pick this low in the draft. Robin Lopez is another real possibility here.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Washington


JaVale McGee
Position: PF
Height: 7-0
Weight: 237
Age: 20
School: Nevada

The skinny: JaVale McGee is another wild card. Long, athletic and skilled, he has huge upside and can fly up and down the court. But his thin frame and lack of position mean he might be a few years away from contributing a lot.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Cleveland


Kosta Koufos
Position: C
Height: 7-0
Weight: 265
Age: 19
School: Ohio State

The skinny: If Kosta Koufos slips this far, it will be tough for the Cavs to pass on him. He's a very skilled big man who gets up and down the floor really well.

Some scouts compare him to a young Zydrunas Ilgauskas. He needs to get stronger, but he's got great upside for a pick this low in the draft.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Denver


Robin Lopez
Position: C
Height: 7-0
Weight: 245
Age: 20
School: Stanford

The skinny: Marcus Camby is getting up there in age and he might be on the trading block this summer. Robin Lopez's combination of hustle, toughness, shot-blocking, rebounding and size have drawn comparisons to Anderson Varejao. He should be a good fit in the Nuggets' up-tempo offense.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


New Jersey
(via Dallas)


Chase Budinger
Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 205
Age: 20
School: Arizona

The skinny: Chase Budinger could easily be a late-lottery pick, but he could also slip. Teams love his size and shooting ability but worry a bit about his lack of aggressiveness and defense. At this point in the draft, the Nets will be glad to take the risk.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Orlando


Mario Chalmers
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 170
Age: 22
School: Kansas

The skinny: With Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling both hitting the free-agent market this summer, the Magic could hedge their bets with Mario Chalmers -- a sweet-shooting, hard-defending floor leader who can play both the 1 and 2.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Utah


Roy Hibbert
Position: C
Height: 7-2
Weight: 275
Age: 21
School: Georgetown

The skinny: It didn't come as a huge surprise when Roy Hibbert was among the first players to work out in Utah. The Jazz need size, and Hibbert needs a team that excels in the half-court set. Hibbert would be a great fit in Utah.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Seattle
(via Phoenix)


Serge Ibaka
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 220
Age: 18
Country: Congo

The skinny: Expect Sonics GM Sam Presti to use a trick or two from his days in San Antonio and look internationally with his second pick. Serge Ibaka has the talent to be a potential lottery pick someday, but he's still very raw. The Sonics can leave him over in Spain and reap the benefits down the road.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Houston


Nicolas Batum
Position: SF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 210
Age: 19
Country: France

The skinny: The Rockets will have a hard time passing on Nicolas Batum, an athletic swingman who can do just about everything. He lacks experience, but at this point in the draft, you take the best talent available.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


San Antonio


Ty Lawson
Position: PG
Height: 5-11
Weight: 195
Age: 20
School: UNC

The skinny: Tony Parker is the man, but the Spurs have needed a solid backup for a while. Ty Lawson is a super-quick point guard who's going to have to learn how to play more than one speed for Gregg Popovich. However, he plays tough defense and limits turnovers and should be a great fit on the Spurs.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


New Orleans


Chris Douglas-Roberts
Position: SG
Height: 6-6
Weight: 195
Age: 21
School: Memphis

The skinny: Chris Douglas-Roberts would be a great fit for the Hornets if he's still on the board. He is a big-time scorer who excels at slashing to the basket. He also is an excellent midrange shooter and should be able to step in and contribute right away.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Memphis


J.J. Hickson
Position: PF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 240
Age: 19
School: NC State

The skinny: The Grizzlies need a power forward with some power, and J.J. Hickson, the freshman from North Carolina State, has great toughness and scoring ability inside the paint. If Hickson had stayed in school for another year, he would've been a potential lottery pick. He's a steal here.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Detroit


Bill Walker
Position: SF
Height: 6-6
Weight: 235
Age: 20
School: Kansas State

The skinny: Joe Dumars has a history of taking talented players disregarded by other teams and turning them into stars. Bill Walker looks like a great fit on a team trying to get younger and more explosive.

PICK

TEAM

PLAYER

VITALS


Boston


Alexis Ajinca
Position: C
Height: 7-1
Weight: 240
Age: 20
Country: France

The skinny: French big man Alexis Ajinca isn't quite ready, but his size, length and athleticism are tough to ignore at this point in the draft. After a year or two in Europe or the D-League, the Celtics could have a sleeper.

DisplacedKnick
06-10-2008, 01:34 PM
That makes a lot more sense than when he had us taking Augustin.

Still hoping for Mayo myself. We'll see - he COULD be there.

MyFavMartin
06-10-2008, 01:38 PM
1. Chicago - Derrick Rose
2. Miami - Michael Beasley
3. Minnesota - O.J. Mayo
4. Seattle - Jerryd Bayless
5. Memphis - Kevin Love
6. New York - Anthony Randolph
7. LA Clippers - Eric Gordon
8. Milwaukee - Danilo Gallinari
9. Charlotte - Brook Lopez
10. New Jersey - DeAndre Jordan
11. Indiana - Russell Westbrook
12. Sacramento - D.J. Augustin
13. Portland - Joe Alexander
14. Golden State - Darrell Arthur
15. Phoenix - Brandon Rush
16. Philadelphia - Mareese Speights
17. Toronto - Greene
18. Washington - McGee
19. Cleveland - Kofous
20. Denver - Lopez
21. New Jersey - Budinger
22. Orlando - Chalmers
23. Utah - Hibbert
24. Seattle - Ibaka
25. Houston - Batum
26. San Antonio - Lawson
27. New Orleans - CDR
28. Memphis - Hickson
29. Detroit - Walker
30. Boston - Ajinca

Naptown_Seth
06-10-2008, 04:27 PM
The Pacers could also go other directions if they find a way to move Jermaine O'Neal for a veteran point guard such as T.J. Ford or Kirk Hinrich. If they land a good veteran point guard, someone like Darrell Arthur could be the choice.
Holy crap I just said this in the prospects thread. I swear I hadn't read this (was it even posted yet?).

A) move Dun for Jack and 13th pick, get Rush and draft Arthur. PG, SG, PF and you haven't even moved JO yet

B) move JO for Hinrich/various, draft Arthur

Stuff like Dun/Ike for Lafrentz/pick works, as does Dun/Tins for Lafrentz/Jack/pick. Sorry to go trade options outside that area, just making the point that they definitely have realistic ways to move back into the draft and adjust the roster a fair amount. Obviously there are plenty of JO deals (including to POR) that could also be thrown out with this to really shake things up.

I just use Dun as a guy a young team could use and would be willing to spend a large expiring + mid pick to get.

Shade
06-10-2008, 05:15 PM
Too many mocks have us taking Augustin or Westbrook. Has to be a smokescreen.

Kegboy
06-10-2008, 06:19 PM
Too many mocks have us taking Augustin or Westbrook. Has to be a smokescreen.

Everyone in the world, including Augustin, will be utterly convinced we're gonna draft him. Then we'll take Rush, just to make up for what happened to his brother.

(Of course, you could certainly make the argument that we made it up to him by bringing him back from his Euro exile.)

Jim R
06-10-2008, 08:25 PM
Holy crap I just said this in the prospects thread. I swear I hadn't read this (was it even posted yet?).

A) move Dun for Jack and 13th pick, get Rush and draft Arthur. PG, SG, PF and you haven't even moved JO yet

B) move JO for Hinrich/various, draft Arthur

Stuff like Dun/Ike for Lafrentz/pick works, as does Dun/Tins for Lafrentz/Jack/pick. Sorry to go trade options outside that area, just making the point that they definitely have realistic ways to move back into the draft and adjust the roster a fair amount. Obviously there are plenty of JO deals (including to POR) that could also be thrown out with this to really shake things up.

I just use Dun as a guy a young team could use and would be willing to spend a large expiring + mid pick to get.

#A isn't a bad deal on paper, but I'm not sure Jarrett Jack is a long term answer at the PG spot. I'd really like to see the Pacers use the 11th pick to get that done. Portland has a higher cap hit than the Pacers do, so matching salaries is a must.

You'd almost have to take Darius Miles in that deal instead of Jack, which would make it Dunleavy for the 13th pick. I'd be OK with that. I'd rather see the Pacers have Granger at SF, going another direction for a SG who can really defend it. Not that one is an option where the Pacers would draft.

As for #B, you're looking at Hinrich for JO. It doesn't work as is. JO's '09 salary is $21M to Hinrich's $10M. They would almost have to include Drew Gooden $7M and another player, such as a throw in like Cedric Simmons, who is around $1.7M. That's a lot for them put into a deal just to make it work, especially when Gooden possesses an expired contract.

If they were to do it for something like that, which I doubt, I could see them thinking JO's deal will be off the books the year after Gooden's, whereas Hinrich is signed through '12. The Pacers would have to throw them a bone, such as maybe their #2 picks for this year and next, assuming the Bulls value such a trade.

Two years of JO with Deng, Noah, Derrick Rose, and Ben Gordon might be worth it to them, since Rose would benefit greatly from having a post presence on offense.


The Pacers would be:

SF - Danny Granger
PF - Drew Gooden
C - Jeff Foster
SG -
PG - Kurt Hinrich

They could use #11 and #13 judiciously to fill needs. I kind of like Chase Buddinger at #13. Though his defense is seen as needing improvement, it can't be any worse than Dunleavy's.

At #11, not sure now. If they felt Marreese Speights could be a low post presence on both ends, he could be a nice sleeper at #11. I like the idea of Darrell Arthur too. Both guys put up good numbers playing about 60% of each game. I kind of like the potential and size of DeAndre Jordan.

Truly if you go the best available player, I'd go Joe Alexander at #11 and Chase Buddinger at #13. You get a player in Alexander who is skilled as a SF but the same size as Arthur. The Pacers still go with playing two SF's at the wings, using Granger and either Buddinger, Alexander or Shawne Williams at the other wing spot, and they would skilled, very skilled athletes on the floor almost all the time.

Shade
06-10-2008, 08:29 PM
No offense, but that team would be beyond horrible.

I'm talking 15 wins horrible.

idioteque
06-10-2008, 08:51 PM
No offense, but that team would be beyond horrible.

I'm talking 15 wins horrible.

15 wins? 30 wins, maybe, but 15?

Shade
06-10-2008, 08:55 PM
15 wins? 30 wins, maybe, but 15?

There's no chance a starting line-up of Foster/Gooden/Granger/Hinrich/rookie SG selected at 11/13 is going to win 30 games.

That would probably be the worst team in the league.

wintermute
06-10-2008, 09:45 PM
Holy crap I just said this in the prospects thread. I swear I hadn't read this (was it even posted yet?).

A) move Dun for Jack and 13th pick, get Rush and draft Arthur. PG, SG, PF and you haven't even moved JO yet



it's well known that portland is targeting the summer of '09 for making a big free agent signing - think max offer to the likes of chris paul and deron williams. and if they're bent on getting an sf, '09 also happens to be danny's restricted year...

in any case, portland won't take on deals that endanger their '09 or '10 cap space. the only way they take dunleavy is if they're sending back pryzbilla as filler, not lafrentz. darius miles might be out too since portland is reportedly trying to get him to retire due to injury.

so, dunleavy for jack, #13, and pryz? still good value for us, i think.

edit: this should probably go into the trade forum

ABADays
06-10-2008, 10:05 PM
"I actually think they'd probably lean toward Westbrook, who has more upside. His athleticism, defense and ability to penetrate would all be welcome in Indiana. If he were ever to get a rock-solid jump shot, he'd have a chance to be a star."

Oh Gawd. I don't want to hear IFs especially about a guard without a jump shot. And I don't want to hear about a "Star". Heard that enough with a guy whose initials were JB. I would rather take a rock solid player who doesn't have to be a star.

Kaufman
06-10-2008, 10:26 PM
Oh Gawd. I don't want to hear IFs especially about a guard without a jump shot.


god is probably not a pacers fan.

kester99
06-10-2008, 10:28 PM
Now now, Kaufy, isn't our coach JOB?

ABADays
06-10-2008, 10:28 PM
god is probably not a pacers fan.

I was talking about Seymour Gawd - thus the spelling.

rm1369
06-10-2008, 11:30 PM
Oh Gawd. I don't want to hear IFs especially about a guard without a jump shot. And I don't want to hear about a "Star". Heard that enough with a guy whose initials were JB. I would rather take a rock solid player who doesn't have to be a star.

Nearly every player in the draft has a question mark. IMO, shooting is one of the easiest skills for a player to improve - if they work at it.

Westbrook and Speights are the two players that intrigue me the most even though I don't expect either to be good nba players next year. I want the Pacers to project the players out 3-4 years and take who they think will be the best player then - not next season. My fear is the team will draft the most solid NBA ready player and overlook some players with the dreaded P word.

Anthem
06-10-2008, 11:57 PM
#A isn't a bad deal on paper, but I'm not sure Jarrett Jack is a long term answer at the PG spot. I'd really like to see the Pacers use the 11th pick to get that done.
Nobody at #11 will be a long-term answer at the PG spot.

Jim R
06-11-2008, 12:19 AM
No offense, but that team would be beyond horrible.

I'm talking 15 wins horrible.

I rather doubt that. When you consider how little Tinsley and O'Neal contributed this year, including the overall instability of working them in and out of the lineup, and Dunleavy having a career year, if you put a strong PG out there with a lineup which is consistent and not always waiting for its star to get healthy, they will do nearly as well as they did this year.

They would not win as many games, but they would improve their contract situation, as well as getting good young guys. It would give Shawne Williams a good chance to get clock to prove what he can do, and they would have a nice core of young long, athletic wings, with Granger being the elder statesman.

Hinrich would be brilliant in this system, but it appears this team will have to take another step back before it can step forward with the contracts it has.

tadscout
06-11-2008, 12:51 AM
it appears this team will have to take another step back before it can step forward

I remember LB saying something similar along those lines the day DW left...

D-BONE
06-11-2008, 08:28 AM
#A isn't a bad deal on paper, but I'm not sure Jarrett Jack is a long term answer at the PG spot. I'd really like to see the Pacers use the 11th pick to get that done. Portland has a higher cap hit than the Pacers do, so matching salaries is a must.

You'd almost have to take Darius Miles in that deal instead of Jack, which would make it Dunleavy for the 13th pick. I'd be OK with that. I'd rather see the Pacers have Granger at SF, going another direction for a SG who can really defend it. Not that one is an option where the Pacers would draft.

As for #B, you're looking at Hinrich for JO. It doesn't work as is. JO's '09 salary is $21M to Hinrich's $10M. They would almost have to include Drew Gooden $7M and another player, such as a throw in like Cedric Simmons, who is around $1.7M. That's a lot for them put into a deal just to make it work, especially when Gooden possesses an expired contract.

If they were to do it for something like that, which I doubt, I could see them thinking JO's deal will be off the books the year after Gooden's, whereas Hinrich is signed through '12. The Pacers would have to throw them a bone, such as maybe their #2 picks for this year and next, assuming the Bulls value such a trade.

Two years of JO with Deng, Noah, Derrick Rose, and Ben Gordon might be worth it to them, since Rose would benefit greatly from having a post presence on offense.


The Pacers would be:

SF - Danny Granger
PF - Drew Gooden
C - Jeff Foster
SG -
PG - Kurt Hinrich

They could use #11 and #13 judiciously to fill needs. I kind of like Chase Buddinger at #13. Though his defense is seen as needing improvement, it can't be any worse than Dunleavy's.

At #11, not sure now. If they felt Marreese Speights could be a low post presence on both ends, he could be a nice sleeper at #11. I like the idea of Darrell Arthur too. Both guys put up good numbers playing about 60% of each game. I kind of like the potential and size of DeAndre Jordan.

Truly if you go the best available player, I'd go Joe Alexander at #11 and Chase Buddinger at #13. You get a player in Alexander who is skilled as a SF but the same size as Arthur. The Pacers still go with playing two SF's at the wings, using Granger and either Buddinger, Alexander or Shawne Williams at the other wing spot, and they would skilled, very skilled athletes on the floor almost all the time.

Well, if you wind up with two #1s, you can still draft the best G available to you (Westrbook, Augustin, Rush, Chalmers, Etc) plus a big. If you could pull off the two deals the way Seth has them laid out, why can't you play Jack and Hinrich at the same time in the backcourt while you develop the new G (point, shooting, or combo) you just selected.

The thing about both Jack and Hinrich is their ability to log minutes at either guard spot. So you can still have Diener in the mix here, too, off the bench. True, neither is a GREAT player. Both are solid, competent, experienced yet not aged. And both would provide a serious defensive upgrade to anybody in our recent backcourt, not to mention both have solid character reps AFAIK.

D-BONE
06-11-2008, 08:47 AM
[quote=Jim R;733725
The Pacers would be:

SF - Danny Granger
PF - Drew Gooden
C - Jeff Foster
SG -
PG - Kurt Hinrich
[/QUOTE]

Following up here. The lineup could look something like this:

PG-Hinrich/Jack/Diener/G draft (??)
SG-Hinrich/Jack/Marquis/G draft pick (??)
SF-Granger/Williams/Graham
PF-Gooden/Ike/Williams/big draft pick (??)
C-Murphy/Foster big draft pick (??)

The G and Big tentative picks are listed at multiple places pending what positions at which they might contriubute and/or how many total picks we end up with. Would we keep our 2nd rnd pick, for example?

The notable potential weakness is shooting/scoring minus Dunleavy from the SG. But you have more flexibility and defense. Or maybe Graham can somehow put in some time at SG to see what he's got. Although he seems more like an SF all the way to me.

Or you can just try to work the Chicago angle and not sacrifice Dun. At any rate, there seems to be possibilities and I'm not sure a lineup something like the one above is all that much worse than in record than how we finished last season.

Hicks
06-11-2008, 09:19 AM
Nobody at #11 will be a long-term answer at the PG spot.

http://www.tubearoo.com/m2/68651/Hot%20Shots!%20Part%20Deux%20-%20War.jpg
Pessimism. It's FANtastic.

I can just see the 1987 you or an equivalent. Reggie Miller? Flop. ;)

Kegboy
06-11-2008, 10:08 AM
http://www.tubearoo.com/m2/68651/Hot%20Shots!%20Part%20Deux%20-%20War.jpg
Pessimism. It's FANtastic.

I can just see the 1987 you or an equivalent. Reggie Miller? Flop. ;)

You do realize Jimmy has said the same thing.

Hicks
06-11-2008, 11:26 AM
You do realize Jimmy has said the same thing.

I do, and I also see a difference between the head coach saying it and a fan saying it. I think it's easier for a fan to muse the possibility that we could get a pleasant surprise. A coach can't afford to think that way.

eldubious
06-11-2008, 02:35 PM
This mock draft makes the most sense. Westbrook would be the best player available if the draft went this way, and at a need position. I don't see any way that Westbrook doesn't become a good player in the leauge, he has the upside of an Arenas and the downside of Devin Harris, it is almost a no-brianer to pick him. Even if the Pacers picked up Hinrich, they should still pick Westbrook because I just don't see any dominant big men in this draft after Beasley and Love. Now, if the Pacers could in some way move up and take Love, then that would be the absolute perfect scenario. If they acquire another first round pick, it would be to pick up a big in the likes of McGee, Arthur, or Koufus. Or it could be entirely possible that the Pacers don't trade JO and solidify their guard positions in the draft with Westbrook and Lawson?

Anthem
06-11-2008, 03:55 PM
I do, and I also see a difference between the head coach saying it and a fan saying it. I think it's easier for a fan to muse the possibility that we could get a pleasant surprise. A coach can't afford to think that way.
Augustin's not going to be a long-term solution at the point, and there's no PG better than him that will be available at that spot.

I don't think that's pessimistic, I think that's just the reality of the situation.

Naptown_Seth
06-12-2008, 04:52 PM
I do, and I also see a difference between the head coach saying it and a fan saying it. I think it's easier for a fan to muse the possibility that we could get a pleasant surprise. A coach can't afford to think that way.
So it's pessimistic to NOT muse the possibility of a pleasant surprise? Holy sunshiners. :happydanc

Frankly if you go around always EXPECTING the surprise then they never really are pleasant surprises, are they? Only the realist gets the surprise.

The pessimist will never see it that way even after that fact. ;)

Naptown_Seth
06-12-2008, 04:59 PM
I rather doubt that. When you consider how little Tinsley and O'Neal contributed this year, including the overall instability of working them in and out of the lineup, and Dunleavy having a career year, if you put a strong PG out there with a lineup which is consistent and not always waiting for its star to get healthy, they will do nearly as well as they did this year.
I agree. I think Shade needs to pull up the minutes played for last season as a reminder of just what was on the floor most nights.
:-o

Diener, Dun, Danny, Murph, Foster? That's better than Hinrich, Hughes, Danny, Murph, Foster? Doubtful. And in the 2nd case you're getting the 11 pick and the Bulls pick maybe.

I'm not a "sell JO no matter what", nor do I insist on moving Dun. I just think Dun has value that might go toward a real rebuild adjustment if a young team needs a quality, smart vet like Dun.

Wage
06-12-2008, 05:34 PM
I
Diener, Dun, Danny, Murph, Foster? That's better than Hinrich, Hughes, Danny, Murph, Foster? Doubtful. And in the 2nd case you're getting the 11 pick and the Bulls pick maybe.
.

To be fair, if you are going to put Hughes in the second line up, you may as well put JO and Tinsley in the first line up.

I am not arguing either way, but writing off JO and Tinsley for injury concerns while penciling in Hughes as a starter does not make sense to me.

count55
06-12-2008, 05:55 PM
To be fair, if you are going to put Hughes in the second line up, you may as well put JO and Tinsley in the first line up.

I am not arguing either way, but writing off JO and Tinsley for injury concerns while penciling in Hughes as a starter does not make sense to me.


Well, to be fair, Hughes has missed 28 games over the last two seasons, while JO and Jamaal have missed 53 and 54 respectively.

To be narrower, Hughes missed 14 games last year, JO missed 40, and Jamaal, 43. It's hard to draw any equivalenced between the two.

avoidingtheclowns
06-12-2008, 06:04 PM
Well, to be fair, Hughes has missed 28 games over the last two seasons, while JO and Jamaal have missed 53 and 54 respectively.

To be narrower, Hughes missed 14 games last year, JO missed 40, and Jamaal, 43. It's hard to draw any equivalenced between the two.

to be parabolic, hughes plays a position of strength for this team AND is also someone that would make me cry if allowed freedom in the O'Brien offense.

count55
06-12-2008, 06:10 PM
to be parabolic, hughes plays a position of strength for this team AND is also someone that would make me cry if allowed freedom in the O'Brien offense.

To be exact, I wasn't arguing that Hughes was good for the team, or that I wanted him, just that he wasn't as fragile as JO & Droopy last year, and that it was fair to compare the lineup with Hughes vs. lineup w/o JO & JT.

To be honest, I can't remember what the whole trade was so I'm now wondering how the hell we end up with a lineup noted, and where the **** Dunleavy is...

Anthem
06-12-2008, 06:12 PM
hughes . . .would make me cry if allowed freedom in the O'Brien offense.
Amen.

Wage
06-12-2008, 06:28 PM
Well, to be fair, Hughes has missed 28 games over the last two seasons, while JO and Jamaal have missed 53 and 54 respectively.

To be narrower, Hughes missed 14 games last year, JO missed 40, and Jamaal, 43. It's hard to draw any equivalenced between the two.

If you only want to use last season, in wich JO was shut down for most of the year, then sure. However, if you go back 1 year, Hughes played exactly 1 more game than JO. Go back another year, and JO played 15 more games than Hughes.

I am willing to concede on the Tinsley part though :)

Hicks
06-12-2008, 09:32 PM
So it's pessimistic to NOT muse the possibility of a pleasant surprise? Holy sunshiners. :happydanc

Frankly if you go around always EXPECTING the surprise then they never really are pleasant surprises, are they? Only the realist gets the surprise.

The pessimist will never see it that way even after that fact. ;)

That's not what I meant.

Anthem
06-12-2008, 10:01 PM
That's not what I meant.
So what did you mean? Not trying to be a jerk, but I haven't understood your point here.


EDIT: I pointed out something that was pretty well-accepted, both on the board and off. Everybody agrees that DJ won't be a long-term solution. Has anyone disagreed with that yet?

Hicks
06-12-2008, 10:09 PM
I was trying to say that I think it's far too early to assume he won't be a good enough player to be a "long term solution" for us. Most reports indicate he's right on that line where he could go either way. To declare one or the other now, this early, is to be pessimistic or overly optimistic.

owl
06-12-2008, 10:25 PM
With DJ you are asking a 5'10" guard to be a starting point and to hope he will be a long
term solution. How many of those have or do exist in the NBA? Travis Best is what I see
with DJ. Now that is not bad but Travis was at his best off the bench and his best days
were with the Pacers and he never really did much after that. I believe the Pacers need
more than that from a pick at 11. I would be far more inclined to go with Westbrook' or
a bigger guard in the second round if going big at 11.

Hicks
06-12-2008, 10:37 PM
If he were projected in the mid to low part of the first round, I think I'd feel more strongly that way, owl, but if he's talented enough to go as high as 7-11, I think he's got at least a somewhat better chance of being one of the exceptions to the rule.

To all, remember too that entertaining the idea of Augustin being a long term solution does not translate to "OMG!!! D.J. IS TEH AWWSTAR!"

Mr. Sobchak
06-12-2008, 11:11 PM
With DJ you are asking a 5'10" guard to be a starting point and to hope he will be a long
term solution. How many of those have or do exist in the NBA? Travis Best is what I see
with DJ. Now that is not bad but Travis was at his best off the bench and his best days
were with the Pacers and he never really did much after that. I believe the Pacers need
more than that from a pick at 11. I would be far more inclined to go with Westbrook' or
a bigger guard in the second round if going big at 11.

I agree with you about going with a different guard in this draft but there is no way Jameer Nelson is actually 6' like he is listed and he is a successful starting guard on a second round playoff team.

DGPR
06-13-2008, 12:16 AM
I agree with you about going with a different guard in this draft but there is no way Jameer Nelson is actually 6' like he is listed and he is a successful starting guard on a second round playoff team.


And Draftexpress has him down as a much better version of Jameer Nelson.

I'm not saying DJ will be great but he will be an immediate upgrade. He's a competitor with heart, a clean record, and he's smart. Point guard isn't the only guard position that needs an upgrade either.

I just wish that we could try and trade for a point guard like Marcus Williams, Acie Law, Javaris Crittenton, or Mike Lowry. There have got to be decent and respectable trade scenarios to grab one of these guards. If we can't secure a point guard in a trade then we have to draft one. Strong point guard play is a must in today's NBA.