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View Full Version : 2008 NBA Draft Lottery Simimulators...



aero
05-20-2008, 07:42 AM
im sure there are a number of draft lottery simulators out there...well i tried out the realgm draft simulator and my first time out look what i got....


http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/7274/draftnumerounoai0.jpg

http://www.realgm.com/src_lottosim.php

one can dream...would rule if we got it, but im sure we will be #11.

Will Galen
05-20-2008, 07:48 AM
I'm more worried about moving back than forward, there's a better chance.

Jared Jammer
05-20-2008, 11:17 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=LotteryPreview-080520


As for the Pacers, if anyone deserves a break from the ping-pong balls, it's them. Since the Ron Artest brawl, the franchise has been snakebit. A lottery win could catapult Indiana back into the mix in the East.

PacerGuy
05-20-2008, 11:24 AM
For the sake of Karma, everyone who play's this needs to have their last play end w/ a Pacer top 3 pick (top 2 preferred!).

Rajah Brown
05-20-2008, 11:32 AM
It's a pipedream, but how sweet would the Pacers at #1,
LAC at #2, SAC at #3, MIA at #4 and NY pushed back to
#8 be.

I might even coax this gimpy, 50-yr old body of mine into
doing a backflip over that result !

Raskolnikov
05-20-2008, 11:34 AM
My first and last play: Pacers at #2.

Jared Jammer
05-20-2008, 11:37 AM
I got the Pacers at #3 after about 5-6 tries. I'll take it.

Swingman
05-20-2008, 11:46 AM
I went through about 30 times and it was always 11 or 12. This last time I actually got us to 1st.

count55
05-20-2008, 11:51 AM
I did the ESPN draft simulator 100 times. I didn't tabulate results by name, but...

The Pacers ended up with the #3 pick twice and were projected to take Brook Lopez (shudder).

The other 98 times, they were either 11th or 12th. They were projected with Eric Gordon 9 times, Kostas Koufas 6 times, Darrell Arthur 4 times (all at 12), and Anthony Randolph once.

The other 78 times they either got Russell Westbrook or DJ Augustin. I didn't do an actual count on those guys, but it was probably 2-to-1 or better for Westbrook. (ESPN tends to have Augustin going between 6 and 10.)

It would be karma's idea that Brook ****ing Lopez would make things even for us.

Trader Joe
05-20-2008, 01:52 PM
I'm praying.

Speed
05-20-2008, 01:56 PM
What to watch for tonight.

Golden State at #14

Portland at #13

Sacramento at #12

NEW JERSEY AT #11

This is what we want, exactly, that means Indiana has a top three pick.

Conversely, If Golden State and/or Portland aren't 14 and 13, we've bumped down to 12, unless TWO teams with hardly any chance have moved into the top 3.

Trader Joe
05-20-2008, 01:58 PM
If Portland gets another lotto break I will go on a killing rampage.

Speed
05-20-2008, 02:31 PM
If Portland gets another lotto break I will go on a killing rampage.


Okay, I'm rooting against Portland for sure, now.

or

In 49 states its just basketball, but in Indiana it's the difference between a rampage or not.

or

David?

MyFavMartin
05-20-2008, 02:49 PM
I might even coax this gimpy, 50-yr old body of mine into
doing a backflip over that result !

Famous last words...

Can you be sure to get someone to film it to put it on youtube?

RIP.

Shade
05-20-2008, 03:26 PM
First of all, we aren't moving up.

If we did, though, #2 would be perfect. Take Rose and run like mad.

I bet the Knicks snag a Top 2 pick.

Lord Helmet
05-20-2008, 03:34 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=LotteryPreview-080520
Very nice of him to say that.

idioteque
05-20-2008, 04:19 PM
When I did it I got Memphis with the #1 pick. If I was Rose or Beasley I'd seriously refuse to play for that franchise. I'd John Elway them in a heart beat.

Shade
05-20-2008, 05:42 PM
When I did it I got Memphis with the #1 pick. If I was Rose or Beasley I'd seriously refuse to play for that franchise. I'd John Elway them in a heart beat.

Rose would probably love to stay home, though.

Jared Jammer
05-20-2008, 05:48 PM
With all the love for Rose, have people forgotten Michael Beasley just put up 26/12 as a freshman? He's being listed at 6'10" 235 lb. with plenty of room to mature, so I'm not understanding this whole debate about him being a tweener in the NBA.

LG33
05-20-2008, 06:05 PM
Check out the top 10 draft lottery moments on NBA.com. The Grizzlies must get the second pick about five times.

CableKC
05-20-2008, 06:15 PM
If Portland gets another lotto break I will go on a killing rampage.
First try....Portland gets the #1 pick.

About my 6th try....Pacers get the #1 pick.

CableKC
05-20-2008, 06:21 PM
If the Warriors ( for example ) gets the #1 pick, does that automatically mean that the #2 pick goes to Miami?

or

Does any lottery team get the chance at #1 to #3 and then after that....everything is determined by the remaining standings?

Does anyone know if they are going to broadcast the Lottery LIVE online?

Jared Jammer
05-20-2008, 06:26 PM
If the Warriors ( for example ) gets the #1 pick, does that automatically mean that the #2 pick goes to Miami?

or

Does any lottery team get the chance at #1 to #3 and then after that....everything is determined by the remaining standings?

Does anyone know if they are going to broadcast the Lottery LIVE online?


They draw for the top-3 picks, in order, 1-3.

The teams have the same number of combinations, but the probability changes depending on who gets #1, and then #2.

Example:

There are 1,000 possible combinations. The Heat have 250 of them. Therefor if the Heat get the #1 pick, we'll have an 8 in 750 chance at #2. If the Warriors, who have just 5 combinations, get #1, then we'll have an 8 in 995 chance at #2.


Here are the number of combinations for each team, depending on their record....

1. Miami Heat - 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. Indiana Pacers - 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. Golden State Warriors - 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

maragin
05-20-2008, 07:30 PM
For years I've wished they'd just give 1 ping pong ball to all non playoff teams to prevent the yearly tank-fest.

Edit: And select the whole order, not just for the top three spots.

count55
05-21-2008, 10:45 AM
For years I've wished they'd just give 1 ping pong ball to all non playoff teams to prevent the yearly tank-fest.

Edit: And select the whole order, not just for the top three spots.


I'd agree with this...though I go back and forth as to whether they should pull out all 14, just the top pick, then slot everyone else by record, or something in between.

I would, however, prefer to hear complaints about somebody with a borderline playoff team getting lucky than to talk about tanking every freakin' year.

d_c
05-21-2008, 12:43 PM
I'd agree with this...though I go back and forth as to whether they should pull out all 14, just the top pick, then slot everyone else by record, or something in between.

I would, however, prefer to hear complaints about somebody with a borderline playoff team getting lucky than to talk about tanking every freakin' year.

When a borderline playoff team (like Portland) that's young and stacked with talent gets a top 3 pick using that kind of system, there's going to be an even bigger outcry than you see now.

Morever, you're going to have teams that are teetering between the 8th and 9th place looking to AVOID making the playoffs because they'd rather have a 20% chance of getting a top 3 pick as opposed to playing against the #1 seed, since the chances of the 8th seed beating the #1 are far less than their chances in the lottery.

Essentially, you'd be transferring the incentive to tank from the very worst teams (last year's Miami, Memphis, Minni) to teams that are actually verging on the playoffs. Is that really better?

Personally, I don't care if the really bad teams tank. They stink anyways and their games wouldn't mean much even if they tried. On the other hand, I'd like to see teams that have a real shot at the playoffs trying hard instead of trying to duck playing against the best team in the conference in favor of a good chance at a top 3 pick.

Doesn't matter how you situate the lottery. No matter how you do it, you're going to get complaints. The current system is the best we have.

The only solution to satisfy everyon is to clone the consensus top picks so every team can get one. Clone Derrick Rose 29 times and every team can have him. There you go. No complaints from anyone. That's about the only solution.