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Putnam
01-03-2008, 09:30 AM
Before the season started, we had a thread in which posters predicted how the Pacers would do this year.

http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-default/showthread.php?t=34177


Needless to say, a lot of people have been surprised. The Pacers are on track to win 37 games. Far and away the majority of posters who mde a prediction thought the Pacers would do better than they are doing. On the other hand, a few people underestimated the team.

I invite you to discuss what has been different than you expected. Did you have too much faith in the bench? Did you expect the team to play without injuries? has the quality of the competition surprised you?

Put yourself on the spot here. If your prediction was way off base, please admit you were wrong and do some self-analysis. Have fun.


For simplicity, I've summarized all the predictions into four groups.



----- Posters who were ridiculously optimistic (45 or more wins) -----

Vince Neil, Speed, McKey Fan, Indy, Infinite MAN Force, Elgin56, Mal, odeez, aero, pacerfreak, naptown, Gyron, Moses, Bobby Mac. Will Galen, pianoman, obnoxiousmodesty, Irk woodsman, hoopsforlife, justin DOHMAN, aceace, Lord Helmet, Alabama-Redneck, OTD, burnzone, Arcadian, skyfire, TheDoddage, flying dutchman, RamboLamar, spazzxb, Robertmto, The Don, Nashville Kat, wjs, naptownmenace, Isaac, cactus jack, tora tora, Big smooth, NorCal Pacerfan, ONeal07, johnnybegood, mellifluous, Magic Rat, Suaveness, Raskolnikov


----- Posters who were a bit too optimistic (40 to 44 wins) -----

UncleBuck, pwee31, Los Angeles, rexnom, Alpolloco, Lonegranger33, indygeezer, AB1077, Knucklehead Warrior, BoomBaby33, pig norton, owl, BlueNGold, CableKC, Shade, #31, UncleWTF, ABADays, wintermute, Wu-Gambino, slyder, BillS, sixthman


----- Posters who were pretty close (35 to 39 wins) -----

Avoidingtheclowns, thunderbird1245, SamBear, Diamond Dave, D-Bone, pacertom, Anthem, tdubb03, Cobol Sam, denyfizle, the Hustler, Putnam



----- Posters who were too pessimistic (34 or fewer wins) -----

SycamoreKen, maragin, JayRedd, Kegboy, Tank, carpediem024, Claptonrocks, Cactus Jax, King tuts Tomb, Displaced Knick, Ron who?




(If you aren't on this list, it is either because your prediction made no sense or because I have you ignored. Have a nice day.)

Speed
01-03-2008, 09:51 AM
Good thread, I'll cope to buying into the coaching hype and style change, this coupled with the very weak EC field. It looks pretty bad right now though. They really could be 10 under, easily by the end of the month. Scary.

I also thought Murphy would have his best year, it seemed to fit, but now they want him skinny again and he's struggled imo.

Lastly, at the time I had no idea that the group didn't have a finisher in any form at all and didn't have a plan.

Who am I kidding, there a million things I could pick on, they just aren't that talented, nor do they fit together symbiotically. I thought they were better than they are and I HOPED the pieces would fit better.

I think I let my heart get in the way of my brain.

If I was picking now, I'd say 32.

owl
01-03-2008, 10:08 AM
I was hoping that Obrien would really make some difference with the limited talent the Pacers have in the front court. Plus this team is just a poor shooting team.
So I predicted 41 wins I believe and would just make the playoffs. However I am
beginning to see this team could fall completely apart. Plus other teams start finding their
stride and move past the Pacers. The last part of the season and especially the off season
will be very interesting.

SycamoreKen
01-03-2008, 10:15 AM
I probably should have picked in the 35-39 wins, but then they still have the ability to finish around 34 wins, but i hope they do not. The team does seem to be in that grey area of playoof/non playoff team right now. I'm not sure if we need to really crash and burn before we can get better or not. I think we need to try to follow Portland's modl if possible, but that means getting some decent draft picks.

Ragnar
01-03-2008, 10:17 AM
Did I fall asleep for a couple of months? I thought the season was still on?

JayRedd
01-03-2008, 10:25 AM
JayReddamus is never wrong. You shall see. Also...Armageddan in 2014!

BillS
01-03-2008, 10:45 AM
Did I fall asleep for a couple of months? I thought the season was still on?

Agreed here - I stand by my prediction, since we're not even at the All-Star break yet.

The strings of losses are a problem but I suspect we'll be able to string some wins later as well.

Unclebuck
01-03-2008, 10:58 AM
Yeah, I said 42 wins and I think I'll stand by that.

Although right now it looks like around 35 wins is more likely, although 10 days ago, 45 wins seemed more likely

Alpolloloco
01-03-2008, 11:12 AM
I didn't think the return of JO would kill the offense as much as it did the last few games.

The offense that we played without JO was a beautiful thing to see, too bad he disrupts the offensive flow so much.

maragin
01-03-2008, 11:13 AM
You could also add Las Vegas to your "too pessimistic" section.

I predicted 31, and have been pleasantly surprised. If we make the playoffs, I'd consider this season a storming success.

Unclebuck
01-03-2008, 11:14 AM
I didn't think the return of JO would kill the offense as much as it did the last few games.

The offense that we played without JO was a beautiful thing to see, too bad he disrupts the offensive flow so much.

I think the much more important point that you aren't mentioning is Tinsley. JT is much more important to the Pacers offense than JO is.

AB1077
01-03-2008, 11:39 AM
My prediction is not out of reach, although some things need to improve. Shooting and putting teams away when we get them down are the 2 biggest.

LoneGranger33
01-03-2008, 11:50 AM
JayReddamus is never wrong. You shall see. Also...Armageddan in 2014!

More like Nostradumbass.


I predicted 44 wins, but I now think 38 wins is the top this team, under O'Brien, is capable of.

BobbyMac
01-03-2008, 12:01 PM
I don't know...it will be hard to get to my predicted 48 wins....Now i'm thinking more like 41....don't know what the answer is...they are so inconsistant in thier shooting and their running of the offense and defense...Granger and Williams are dissapointments....and of course Deiner...

Rajah Brown
01-03-2008, 12:08 PM
I predicted 42-44 wins and I'll stick w/ it for awhile. Extrapolating
after 35 games is kind of a crapshoot. That said, I'd love to see
us win 30 games. I'll take a Lottery pick over an 8th seed and
early exit any day.

As for Williams, he's what 21 yrs old and is 3 yrs removed from HS ?
It's a little early to be calling him disappointing. The only thing
disappointing is his lack of playing time.

avoidingtheclowns
01-03-2008, 12:22 PM
does this mean i win something?





More like Nostradumbass.

3rd grade FTW!

Hicks
01-03-2008, 12:41 PM
I'll admit I was wrong if or when they actually finish with 37 wins.

Shade
01-03-2008, 12:49 PM
This thread is very premature. This season's already been like a roller coaster. Who's to say it won't continue to be so?

Putnam
01-03-2008, 01:10 PM
This thread is very premature. This season's already been like a roller coaster. Who's to say it won't continue to be so?

You, apparently.



We're just an average team. That's all we're going to be until some roster changes are made.

Shade
01-03-2008, 01:25 PM
You, apparently.

And in the end, I think we'll be an average team. We'll hit a major losing streak (12 in a row possibly on the horizon right now, as a matter of fact), and probably some mini-winning streaks to get back around .500 by season's end.

Kegboy
01-03-2008, 01:27 PM
You, apparently.

You're getting "Manic Shade" and "Depression Shade" confused.

[edit] As for me, I didn't expect Jamaal to play at an All-Star level. I did, however, expect him not to be able to play 82 games.

Unclebuck
01-03-2008, 01:53 PM
And in the end, I think we'll be an average team. We'll hit a major losing streak (12 in a row possibly on the horizon right now, as a matter of fact), and probably some mini-winning streaks to get back around .500 by season's end.

I'll bet you the remainder of what I owe Jerm, that the Pacers won't lose 12 in a row.

grace
01-03-2008, 02:01 PM
I'll bet you the remainder of what I owe Jerm, that the Pacers won't lose 12 in a row.

I bet they don't either. They'll probably underachieve and only loose 11 or they'll really apply themselves and loose 13. (Or is that supposed to be the other way around?)

Naptown_Seth
01-03-2008, 02:32 PM
(If you aren't on this list, it is either because your prediction made no sense or because I have you ignored. Have a nice day.)
Same to you. Sheesh.


Anyway then, add me to the 34 and under list, those of you that actually know I exist.

The preseason has me optimistic so I'll say:
34
I will add to that the following thought. Currently it's a 37 win pace, but what if:

they lose to ATL
15-19 = 36 win pace

They lose to ATL and the next 3 road games (LAL, UTH, PHX)
15-22 = 33 win pace

They win 2 of the next 6 (ATL, @LA, @UTH, @PHX, @SAC, @GS)
17-22 = 35-36 win pace

It's not like they are definitely on some steady trend toward 37 wins right now, or appear to be about to turn it around. They were on pace to win 44 just a few weeks ago. And last year at 29-24 they were on pace to win 45 which then became 35.

It's a little too soon to say "tell us why you were wrong".

Naptown_Seth
01-03-2008, 02:34 PM
JayReddamus is never wrong. You shall see. Also...Armageddan in 2014!
Dangit, I had plans for 2014. I hope I can get my deposit back still.

DisplacedKnick
01-03-2008, 02:44 PM
I picked 33 and see no reason to change that. If you'd asked me two weeks ago I might've said that the Pacers' 3-pt shooting has been better than I expected and they also figured out how to move the ball and get into some offensive flow better than I expected.

However after the last few games - I'll stick with 33.

Arcadian
01-03-2008, 02:56 PM
I picked 45 and see no reason to change that.

kester99
01-03-2008, 03:57 PM
I'm not on the list, since I wasn't a member at the time. (I do hope you haven't got me on ignore, Putnam).

On another site, with cornrows in it's name, I did predict a 46-36 record, even though I did say I was going out on a limb. I thought that would only get us a 6th spot in the East.

Basically I just looked at who we're better than, who I thought we're worse than, and roughly equal to, and did a simple calc to come up with the 46-36. By my figuring, we're 4 games off that pace. As in should have won 8 of the games we lost, and had no business winning 4 of the games that we did.

The whole prediction was prefaced with "if JO and JT stay reasonably healthy." We are seeing what happens when JT does not.

But the East is still wide open all the way up to Toronto in the 4th position currently. 42 wins still gets us that 6th playoff seed.

Who knows? We may surprise..uh..us...yet.

ABADays
01-03-2008, 04:51 PM
I'll stick with what I predicted. I knew it was going to be a wild ride.

indyman37
01-03-2008, 05:12 PM
i don't think i posted my prediction just b/c i was partly ashamed of it. part of me always wants the pacers to win but the other part is more realistic. i've found myself rooting for the team to lose just so we could rebuild and get a good draft pick. yes it's greedy on many levels but it's what i want.

BlueNGold
01-03-2008, 08:16 PM
Generally nothing has surprised me that much. I did expect a little bit more this year from Granger and Ike. I also expected better play from JO.

But, the one thing I failed to factor in when I made my prediction of 40-44 wins was that a new system can make an accurate prediction nearly impossible.

In hindsight, I expect this team to finish with around 36 wins.

cactusjack
01-03-2008, 08:27 PM
All I can say in my defense is that I've been a hardcore Cubs fan for nearly 50 years. That proves I'm nucking futs.

Los Angeles
01-03-2008, 08:29 PM
Why is my prediction listed as too optimistic?

I'm with UB. I stand with my prediction.

Shade
01-03-2008, 08:45 PM
I officially change my prediction to 14 wins.

Anthem
01-03-2008, 10:21 PM
I'm not wrong. I'm close now, and plan on ending the year right on target.

jeffg-body
01-03-2008, 11:45 PM
I gotta stick with what I said earlier, low to mid 40's in the W column. We are the perfect example of a young team: streaky as hell, cannot close out games, and lack of toughness in back to back games. I say ride it out to the deadline and see if any team sprouts up for our JO demands?

Naptown_Seth
01-10-2008, 12:18 PM
And bump. That didn't take long, did it?

Sacto with no Ron, no Bibby, that should/could be a win.

Golden St return for Dun/Troy/Ike...uh oh. There is Pacers running and then there is GS running and it's not the same.

Current pace - 35 wins
Pace of last 20 games (8-12) - 33 wins

Gyron
01-10-2008, 04:49 PM
I'll stand with my predicition until the season is closer to over....

bellisimo
01-10-2008, 06:10 PM
apparently i had ignored that thread to post my prediction...whoops

timid
01-10-2008, 06:50 PM
I was wrong on Dunleavy.........I have to say, I thought the dude was garbage, even last year.......But he's completely proven me wrong......Murphy on the other hand........eh.....