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maragin
12-06-2007, 01:44 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

We all know that Hollinger lives in the world of numbers, and that reality doesn't always reflect well. I appreciate his stats articles partly because they try to remove bias, and reveal trends that are hard to see when watching highlight reels and Gatorade commercials.

On a personal note, I've been happy to be wrong so far about our Pacers. I'd pegged them at 31 wins at the beginning of the season... a half game under where Vegas put them. A team that exceeds expectations is a very exciting thing indeed. I look forward to catching a game with my Dad when I come home to visit for the holidays.
-----------------------------

Hollinger Playoff Odds 2007-08


Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking), designed by ESPN.com's John Hollinger.
The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.
Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and how likely it is for each team to make the playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.
For more on how the system works and what it means, see Hollinger's explanation (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PlayoffPredictor-071206).
Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are updated automatically each night.
<table class="tablehead"><tbody><tr class="oddrow"><td><center>Record Alert: The current chances of Boston posting a 72-10 record or better are 1.0%.</center></td></tr></tbody></table> <!--<center>Eastern Conference (http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-default/#ec) | Western Conference (http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-default/#wc)</center>
--> <!--<td>Seed (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=seed&sort=false)</td>--> <table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"><td colspan="14">Eastern Conference</td></tr> <tr class="colhead"> <td colspan="1">
</td> <td colspan="2">ACTUAL</td> <td colspan="4">PROJECTED</td> <td colspan="6">ODDS (%)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" style="background: rgb(220, 220, 220) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" align="right"><td align="left">Team</td> <td width="30">W</td> <td width="30">L</td> <td width="30">W (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=wins&sort=false)</td> <td width="30">L (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=losses&sort=false)</td> <td>Best (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=bcwins&sort=false)</td> <td>Worst (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=bclosses&sort=false)</td> <td>Playoffs (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=ploffodds&sort=false)</td> <td>Division (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=divodds&sort=false)</td> <td>No. 1 (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=ploffseed&sort=false)</td> <td>Finals (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=finals&sort=false)</td> <td>Champs (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=champs&sort=false)</td> <td>Lottery (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=lotpct&sort=false)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" bos.gif="" target="_blank">Boston (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=bos)
</td><td>15</td><td>2</td><td>64</td><td>18</td><td>77-5</td><td>51-31</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">100.0</td><td>99.9</td><td>78.6</td><td>53.6</td><td>42.6</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" det.gif="" target="_blank">Detroit (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=det)
</td><td>13</td><td>5</td><td>58</td><td>24</td><td>70-12</td><td>44-38</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">100.0</td><td>100.0</td><td>4.4</td><td>20.2</td><td>13.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" orl.gif="" target="_blank">Orlando (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=orl)
</td><td>16</td><td>4</td><td>60</td><td>22</td><td>70-12</td><td>47-35</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">100.0</td><td>100.0</td><td>17.0</td><td>23.0</td><td>14.6</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" tor.gif="" target="_blank">Toronto (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=tor)
</td><td>10</td><td>9</td><td>46</td><td>36</td><td>58-24</td><td>34-48</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">99.7</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" was.gif="" target="_blank">Washington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=was)
</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>44</td><td>38</td><td>57-25</td><td>32-50</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">98.6</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" ind.gif="" target="_blank">Indiana (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=ind)
</td><td>9</td><td>10</td><td>41</td><td>41</td><td>57-25</td><td>28-54</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">93.4</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.2</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" cle.gif="" target="_blank">Cleveland (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=cle)
</td><td>9</td><td>11</td><td>37</td><td>45</td><td>50-32</td><td>23-59</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">63.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.8</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" atl.gif="" target="_blank">Atlanta (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=atl)
</td><td>7</td><td>10</td><td>37</td><td>45</td><td>50-32</td><td>24-58</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">59.9</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td colspan="16">http://assets.espn.go.com/i/blackdot.gif</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" mil.gif="" target="_blank">Milwaukee (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mil)
</td><td>8</td><td>9</td><td>33</td><td>49</td><td>46-36</td><td>20-62</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">21.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>3.1</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" phi.gif="" target="_blank">Philadelphia (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=phi)
</td><td>5</td><td>13</td><td>33</td><td>49</td><td>47-35</td><td>20-62</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">21.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>3.1</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" mia.gif="" target="_blank">Miami (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mia)
</td><td>4</td><td>13</td><td>32</td><td>50</td><td>47-35</td><td>18-64</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">14.8</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>4.2</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" njn.gif="" target="_blank">New Jersey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=njn)
</td><td>9</td><td>10</td><td>33</td><td>49</td><td>48-34</td><td>21-61</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">14.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>3.1</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" chi.gif="" target="_blank">Chicago (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=chi)
</td><td>5</td><td>11</td><td>32</td><td>50</td><td>43-39</td><td>19-63</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">12.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>4.6</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" nyk.gif="" target="_blank">New York (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=nyk)
</td><td>6</td><td>11</td><td>28</td><td>54</td><td>41-41</td><td>15-67</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">1.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>8.9</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" cha.gif="" target="_blank">Charlotte (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=cha)
</td><td>6</td><td>11</td><td>26</td><td>56</td><td>39-43</td><td>15-67</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">0.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>12.5</td></tr></tbody></table> <!--<td>Seed (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=seed&sort=false)</td>--> <table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"><td colspan="14">Western Conference</td></tr> <tr class="colhead"> <td colspan="1">
</td> <td colspan="2">ACTUAL</td> <td colspan="4">PROJECTED</td> <td colspan="6">ODDS (%)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" style="background: rgb(220, 220, 220) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" align="right"><td align="left">Team</td> <td width="30">W</td> <td width="30">L</td> <td width="30">W (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=wins&sort=false)</td> <td width="30">L (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=losses&sort=false)</td> <td>Best (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=bcwins&sort=false)</td> <td>Worst (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=bclosses&sort=false)</td> <td>Playoffs (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=ploffodds&sort=false)</td> <td>Division (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=divodds&sort=false)</td> <td>No. 1 (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=ploffseed&sort=false)</td> <td>Finals (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=finals&sort=false)</td> <td>Champs (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=champs&sort=false)</td> <td>Lottery (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds?column=lotpct&sort=false)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" sas.gif="" target="_blank">San Antonio (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sas)
</td><td>16</td><td>3</td><td>58</td><td>24</td><td>70-12</td><td>44-38</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">100.0</td><td>96.8</td><td>55.0</td><td>27.8</td><td>9.8</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" pho.gif="" target="_blank">Phoenix (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=pho)
</td><td>15</td><td>4</td><td>56</td><td>26</td><td>71-11</td><td>43-39</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">100.0</td><td>77.3</td><td>23.5</td><td>16.9</td><td>4.7</td><td>0.7*</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" uth.gif="" target="_blank">Utah (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=uth)
</td><td>13</td><td>6</td><td>55</td><td>27</td><td>67-15</td><td>39-43</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">99.9</td><td>99.2</td><td>17.2</td><td>21.6</td><td>6.5</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" gsw.gif="" target="_blank">Golden State (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=gsw)
</td><td>10</td><td>8</td><td>51</td><td>31</td><td>63-19</td><td>38-44</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">99.0</td><td>12.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>13.4</td><td>3.3</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" lal.gif="" target="_blank"> LA Lakers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lal)
</td><td>11</td><td>8</td><td>51</td><td>31</td><td>62-20</td><td>38-44</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">98.9</td><td>10.0</td><td>1.6</td><td>11.4</td><td>2.9</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" dal.gif="" target="_blank">Dallas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=dal)
</td><td>12</td><td>7</td><td>48</td><td>34</td><td>59-23</td><td>34-48</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">92.4</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.2</td><td>3.8</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" hou.gif="" target="_blank">Houston (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=hou)
</td><td>10</td><td>9</td><td>47</td><td>35</td><td>59-23</td><td>34-48</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">92.2</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>3.8</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" nor.gif="" target="_blank">New Orleans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=nor)
</td><td>12</td><td>7</td><td>44</td><td>38</td><td>58-24</td><td>31-51</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">59.7</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr><tr><td colspan="16">http://assets.espn.go.com/i/blackdot.gif</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" den.gif="" target="_blank">Denver (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=den)
</td><td>11</td><td>8</td><td>42</td><td>40</td><td>54-28</td><td>30-52</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">45.2</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.2</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" sac.gif="" target="_blank">Sacramento (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sac)
</td><td>7</td><td>10</td><td>38</td><td>44</td><td>50-32</td><td>25-57</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">9.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.8</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" mem.gif="" target="_blank">Memphis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mem)
</td><td>6</td><td>12</td><td>36</td><td>46</td><td>47-35</td><td>24-58</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">3.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>1.3</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" por.gif="" target="_blank">Portland (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=por)
</td><td>6</td><td>12</td><td>32</td><td>50</td><td>45-37</td><td>20-62</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>5.3</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" lac.gif="" target="_blank"> LA Clippers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lac)
</td><td>6</td><td>11</td><td>25</td><td>57</td><td>37-45</td><td>14-68</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>13.5</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(236, 236, 236) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" min.gif="" target="_blank">Minnesota (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=min)
</td><td>2</td><td>14</td><td>19</td><td>63</td><td>35-47</td><td>8-74</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>22.7</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" style="height: 30px;" align="right"><td style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" http:="" assets.espn.go.com="" i="" teamlogos="" nba="" sml="" trans="" sea.gif="" target="_blank">Seattle (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sea)
</td><td>4</td><td>15</td><td>24</td><td>58</td><td>38-44</td><td>12-70</td><td style="font-weight: bold;" bgcolor="#c1c1c1">0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>14.7</td></tr> </tbody></table> <!--<tr class="evenrow"><td>Seed = Conference playoff seeding based on expected record</td></tr>--> <table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr class="stathead"><td>Hollinger Playoff Odds Glossary</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>Wins = Average number of wins from 5,000 computer-simulated seasons, based on the Hollinger Power Rankings</td></tr><tr> </tr><tr class="evenrow"><td>Losses = Average number of losses</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>Best = Best record from simulated seasons</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>Worst = Worst record from simulated seasons</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>Playoffs = Likelihood of making the playoffs</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>Division = Likelihood of winning the division</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>No. 1 = Likelihood of holding the top seed for the conference</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>Finals = Likelihood of making the NBA Finals</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>Champs = Likelihood of winning the NBA title</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow"><td>Lottery = Likelihood of winning the lottery</td></tr> </tbody> </table>
* Phoenix owns Atlanta's first-round pick.

Cactus Jax
12-06-2007, 05:12 PM
.1% chance at the Finals.....so you're saying Ive got a chance.

idioteque
12-06-2007, 05:18 PM
I like Hollinger's stats because they do remove all bias. It's like the polar opposite of what would happen if Simmons did the power rankings for ESPN.

What I don't like is the complete absolute nature of them. How can you really say the Bobcats have absolutely chance of making the playoffs when in reality they're only a couple games out?

MyFavMartin
12-06-2007, 05:41 PM
I'd like to see if he looked at injuries and strength of schedule.

Then, again, most teams are one injury away from missing the playoffs.

JayRedd
12-06-2007, 05:49 PM
What I don't like is the complete absolute nature of them. How can you really say the Bobcats have absolutely chance of making the playoffs when in reality they're only a couple games out?

Because that's what the simulation determined. It's all math.

avoidingtheclowns
12-06-2007, 05:57 PM
I like Hollinger's stats because they do remove all bias. It's like the polar opposite of what would happen if Simmons did the power rankings for ESPN.

What I don't like is the complete absolute nature of them. How can you really say the Bobcats have absolutely chance of making the playoffs when in reality they're only a couple games out?

so what i'm hearing you say is that you hate them and like them for the exact same reason.

Anthem
12-06-2007, 06:21 PM
I like Hollinger's stats because they do remove all bias. It's like the polar opposite of what would happen if Simmons did the power rankings for ESPN.
I'd trust Simmonses(sp?) more than Hollinger's.

rexnom
12-06-2007, 11:28 PM
I'd trust Simmonses(sp?) more than Hollinger's.
Simmons always did say he was the Locke to Hollinger's Jack. It's about preference, I guess. I much prefer Simmons. Although, the best power rankings seem to consistently be Stein's.

King Tuts Tomb
12-07-2007, 05:16 AM
I like Hollinger, Simmons and Stein a lot.

Come to think of it, ESPN.com has a pretty fantastic stable of NBA writers. Along with those three they have the solid Chad Ford and Chris Sheridan, as well as the awesome Henry Abbot and TrueHoop.

Rinuven
12-07-2007, 09:36 AM
Hollinger's math really doesn't mean much until about half way through the season. By that point the real trends have been established and the numbers do reveal some valid points. Right now a 2-3 game winning/losing streak by any number of teams on the bubble would drastically change the way those standings look.

Unclebuck
12-07-2007, 11:50 AM
That is really wacky stuff.

When he suggests the Warriors have a better chance of making the finals than do teams such as the Mavs, Rockets.

Just wacky stuff from Hollinger as usual

dohman
12-07-2007, 12:07 PM
That is really wacky stuff.

When he suggests the Warriors have a better chance of making the finals than do teams such as the Mavs, Rockets.

Just wacky stuff from Hollinger as usual

Maybe not as whacky as you think. They had a better chance last year than the mavs and didnt they get just as far as the rockets.. maybe the computer knows lol

FlavaDave
12-07-2007, 12:36 PM
That is really wacky stuff.

When he suggests the Warriors have a better chance of making the finals than do teams such as the Mavs, Rockets.

Just wacky stuff from Hollinger as usual


Why is that wacky? The Warriors got alot closer to the Finals than the Mavericks or Rockets did last year.

Unclebuck
12-07-2007, 12:45 PM
The whole thing is Wacky - but then Im not a stats guy. Sometimes I wonder of Hollinger ever watches a game

Doug
12-07-2007, 01:04 PM
.1% chance at the Finals.

Never tell me the odds!

avoidingtheclowns
12-07-2007, 02:13 PM
The whole thing is Wacky - but then Im not a stats guy. Sometimes I wonder of Hollinger ever watches a game

you do realize this is strictly math, right? it has nothing to do with watching a game or not. it is strictly stats. he has nothing to do with it. it isn't an observation. he is just saying mathematically, this is what is projected.

Unclebuck
12-07-2007, 02:19 PM
you do realize this is strictly math, right? it has nothing to do with watching a game or not. it is strictly stats. he has nothing to do with it. it isn't an observation. he is just saying mathematically, this is what is projected.

I get that and that is why I object.

Anthem
12-07-2007, 02:29 PM
you do realize this is strictly math, right? it has nothing to do with watching a game or not. it is strictly stats. he has nothing to do with it. it isn't an observation. he is just saying mathematically, this is what is projected.
Yeah, but you're assuming the models are correct. I'm not sure how you could calibrate a model without watching the games, but then that's never seemed to bother Hollinger.

avoidingtheclowns
12-07-2007, 03:02 PM
Yeah, but you're assuming the models are correct. I'm not sure how you could calibrate a model without watching the games, but then that's never seemed to bother Hollinger.

i'm not assuming anything. he has a formula. this formula projects these records and standings. that is all.

no one is saying this should be taken seriously or remotely. it doesn't involve watching games but analyzing stats. how does that model need to be calibrated? it is a mathematical projection. how do you calibrate rick bucher saying the lakers will win the championship if they continue to have ariza elevate his game? wait a few weeks later and the lakers have been on a 10 game losing streak when he makes another projection the lakers will win the #1 pick this season and solve their PG issues for the next 10 years. then a few weeks later...

it is all projection. some based on observation. some based on circumstance. this one is based on math. none of it can really tell you who will win this season or what their final regular season record will be. so why worry about calibration?

Naptown_Seth
12-08-2007, 02:47 PM
so what i'm hearing you say is that you hate them and like them for the exact same reason.
Which is exactly why I like stats over opinions for the bottom line. ;)

Numbers aren't bad, it's all about understanding the context, that's all. And this set is a particularly fun group to look at. Certainly these predictions are as valid as any person just posting their own opinion of which teams will be in or out.

Ironically the criticism of predictions like this require a person to make their own outrageously impossible-to-be-sure predictions, such as "23% chance the Magic reach the Finals!!! No way, they're going to fade."

Translation: "100% chance the Magic don't reach the Finals". Whoooops. ;) :D


Yeah, but you're assuming the models are correct. I'm not sure how you could calibrate a model without watching the games, but then that's never seemed to bother Hollinger.
Are you assuming they are incorrect? Which assumption is right and how do you know at this point?

Naptown_Seth
12-08-2007, 02:58 PM
Hollinger's math really doesn't mean much until about half way through the season. By that point the real trends have been established and the numbers do reveal some valid points. Right now a 2-3 game winning/losing streak by any number of teams on the bubble would drastically change the way those standings look.
I haven't done in in awhile and I can't find the Excel of the work, but to prove a point some time ago (defending the Pacers/East chances of winning it all early in the 61 win season vs some West fans) I looked into the playoff shift from the 20 game mark (25%) to the actual final 16. The hard fact is that IIRC only perhaps 2 of 16 teams fall out of those slots.

There are always a couple of surprises, but for the most part the good vs bad shakeout has happened by the 25% point. The same is generally true in baseball.

Also prior to Detroit's title facing the Lakers it had been virtually non-existant for a team lower than the top 3-4 overall to win a title in the previous 20 years.

Winning in the season isn't the same as winning a title. But it does prove a point about which small group is in or out of it. It's more like a litmus test.


Also one other thing to consider. Teams that are having trouble in the first 20 are doing so for a reason. Unless that reason is resolved you can expect more problems. And then on top of that, losing breeds bad chemistry and further problems. So not only are you in a hole, but just when you need your best effort to get out of that hole you are feeling the least interested in giving your best effort.

Certainly I think a case could be made for the Pacers rough finish last year as testament to that factor.

bulldog
12-08-2007, 03:00 PM
Did you bother reading the description of how this is made, and what its supposed to do? Essentially, its just a way of evening out the biases of the schedule. It takes how teams have played thus far, and projects how do they would do against the remainder of their schedule if they continued playing the exact same way.

I really hate knee-jerk reactions like "Does he even watch the game?" He knows the limitations, he spends the entire first portion of the article describing how he built it and what its supposed to mean and be used for. And Rinuven's right, this will be really helpful a few months from now. He probably should have waited a wjile to release it.

And common knowledge from people who watch the game and profess to be experts is wrong as often as these statistical methods. As you guys said, the Warriors did make it farther the Rockets and Mavs. These methods can just red flag areas where conventional wisdom might fail.

We have this conversation every time.

King Tuts Tomb
12-08-2007, 03:52 PM
As for the "He doesn't even watch the games" argument: I'd advise you to read his player profiles on ESPN.com. There's a ton of good sections on defensive tendencies, shot form, attitude, etc.

I like Hollinger because he has his opinions about the NBA, he just doesn't let them interfere with the stats.

NPFII
12-09-2007, 09:13 AM
What I dont understand is the bias towards the East winning it all. He has Boston+Detroit+Orlando's chances at 70%, while the whole West gets 30%.

So maybe Orlando had a good West coast trip, but to conclude from that, especially after last season's Western dominance (season & finals), and how well Phoenix, for example are doing on their East coast trip... - I dont get it.

Naptown_Seth
12-10-2007, 02:18 AM
We have this conversation every time.
No kidding. It never gets any less painful either. Freaking Luddites.