PDA

View Full Version : Quick (and interesting) look at individual stats



imawhat
11-30-2007, 02:47 AM
One positive I envisioned when we named O'Brien the head coach was that he would be able to maximize a player's talent and ability. Stats can be a little misleading with this team because of their increased volume of possessions, and because of increased minutes, but this is slightly interesting. A look at some player in alphabetical order:


Ike Diogu is on pace to have career highs in points at 13.7 (7.2), rebounds at 4.3 (3.7), and assists at 1.0 (0.5) [previous career highs in parentheses].

Mike Dunleavy is on pace to have career highs in points at 16.6 (13.4) and rebounds at 6.1 (5.9)

Jeff Foster is on pace to have career highs in points at 7.1 (7.0) and rebounds at 9.6 (9.1)

Danny Granger is on pace to have career highs in points at 18.4 (13.9), rebounds at 6.1 (4.9), assists at 1.9 (1.4), and blocks at 1.4 (0.8).

Jamaal Tinsley is on pace to have career highs in rebounds at 4.6 (4.0) and assists at 8.4 (8.1).

Shawne Williams is on pace to have career highs in points at 9.9 (3.9), rebounds at 3.8 (1.8), and assists at 1.0 (0.5).


Aside from what one believes as to the reasoning for these increases, however big or small they are, one thing should stick out:

It's VERY relevant when more than half of your core rotation players are averaging career highs in multiple key statistics.

Naptown_Seth
11-30-2007, 03:24 AM
But of course some of that is pace related. Certainly not all of it, but a fair amount.

And playing time as well. How many guys improving their PPG have also increased their FGAs? Is Foster hitting a career high on rebounding PCT (reb/possible reb)? I don't even know who keeps that one.

Tinsley is on pace to have a career high in missed shots too I'm betting, though I haven't verified. ;)

Now Dun's 3P%, that is nice.

imawhat
11-30-2007, 03:58 AM
But of course some of that is pace related. Certainly not all of it, but a fair amount.

And playing time as well. How many guys improving their PPG have also increased their FGAs? Is Foster hitting a career high on rebounding PCT (reb/possible reb)? I don't even know who keeps that one.

Tinsley is on pace to have a career high in missed shots too I'm betting, though I haven't verified. ;)

Now Dun's 3P%, that is nice.

Personally, I think it's weighted by the higher volume, plus career highs in mpg for a lot of those guys (even Foster). But, I think the career highs in mpg are being given because of an increase in quality of play. Again, I think the key here is the amount of players that are having career years. It's early, but six is a lot. And if you're looking at playing time, I think it's asking quite a bit of players who aren't used to getting this amount of playing time. What I mean is that these guys are all adjusting to themselves and each other at the same time, and that could hamper individual numbers/team play. But it isn't.

Also, I think there are stats (i.e. assists) that normally wouldn't fluctuate as much as they are just because of increased playing time. It's also relative to position (bpg/rpg for a PG).

If we're going a little deeper, I would expect our team FG% to drop from last year's based on the higher volume (usually more shots=lower %). An interesting thing about the higher volume/pace is that % would lower due to more shots taken by fatigued players, but increases by higher amount of easy baskets.

I think our FG% this year will be relative to the mpg players are getting. For example, the higher volume/pace should always mean more easy baskets, and less mpg, or shorter playing stretches should account for a lower number of "fatigued" shots. Notice how many shots last night were hitting the front of the rim at the beginning of the game?

I think Tinsley's FG% will increase. With the exception of last night, I think his shot selection has gotten better lately. A lot more offense is initiating in the post for him.

I think Dun's FG% will fall a little bit, O'Neals will get much better. Foster may get close to a career low, as I suspect he will finish the season with a career high in FGA/game (taking deeper shots, rather than just dunks, layups, putbacks, and bailouts).

Putnam
11-30-2007, 09:38 AM
Good OP, imawhat.

Here's something else that I've noticed.

After 16 games, the Pacers are 8-0 when they have a higher FG% than their opponent. But they are only 3-6 when they take more shots than their opponent.

It's wrong to characterize O'Brien's plan as simply speeding up to get more shots. Rather, he wants the team to hurry up in order to get more easy baskets.

The Pacers had only 79 field goal attempts against the Blazers, and only 76 against the Jazz -- both wins.

Pacerized
11-30-2007, 09:59 AM
One more game like the last and I think Tinsely may crack the top 5 in assist per game, and Foster would jump to the top 12 in rebounding. Tinsely is currently 6th., and Foster 17th.

JayRedd
11-30-2007, 11:17 AM
I agree with Seth in that some of this is, of course, based on increased mpg (and pace too). I mean, of course Ike will have a "career year" if he plays nearly 10 mpg more than he ever has in his life (although, at this point his stats from three games are statistically irrelevent, IMO). The same thing for Shawne. When you double the minutes, it's not unrealistic to expect double the production...although it is notable that his scoring has increased at a higher rate than his minutes (shooting/making a lot more threes has to do with this) and his percentages are elevated across the board.

Dunleavy, to me, is the most interesting case of improvement thus far.

He's averaging a full 3 points more per night than he ever did in GS (with similar mpg) and actually putting up more for us this year in fewer mpg than he did post trade last Spring. And way more importantly, IMO, his percentages are all currently career bests. His FG% is off the charts, he hasn't shot threes this efficiently since 2005, and even his FT% is a full 5% better than ever before. All this -- especially the FT% -- tells me that he's playing with more confidence than he has in a long time. Yes, he's still "disappeared" in a few games as our Warrior friends told us he would, but he's been pretty consistent, done very little I would call negative, and since he's always been considered someone who "can't handle the pressure" of being a 3rd Pick, starting in the NBA, coming out of Duke, yadda, yadda, yadda, it really, really is nice to see him "get his swagger back." I mean, for an already good FT shooter (77% career) to increase that by 7% (yes, I know it's early and sample size), really says to me that he's very confident and feeling good. I mean, he'll never be a guy that demands the ball, but he looks like he wants shots and wants to get to the line now. That's significant.

As for Danny...similar. Everything about his stats (FG%, FGA, PPG, RPG) shows nothing but progression, which, I believe, is what most of us expect. Not some exponential explosion, but years of linear progression. He's on track.

Foster is Foster, which is nice. Although I've been noticing we trust him with the ball in his hands a little more on the elbow, and he's made quite a few nice little dishes. I mean, I've been impressed enough to throw out some "WOW"s on a few of his little interior bounce passes to cutters this season. Nice to know that he's capable of that in this offense, and good to see the APG numbers reflect it early (1.3 apg this year as opposed to 0.7 for his career).

Jamaal is Jamaal. And he's largely been the good version of Jamaal so far this year. If he can hit more open threes and keep up everything else, I'll be migthy happy.

Naptown_Seth
11-30-2007, 03:47 PM
Good OP, imawhat.

Here's something else that I've noticed.

After 16 games, the Pacers are 8-0 when they have a higher FG% than their opponent. But they are only 3-6 when they take more shots than their opponent.

It's wrong to characterize O'Brien's plan as simply speeding up to get more shots. Rather, he wants the team to hurry up in order to get more easy baskets.

The Pacers had only 79 field goal attempts against the Blazers, and only 76 against the Jazz -- both wins.
I agree. Also to note, this is what Rick was preaching to start last season too. Honestly I just think JOB has a better grasp on the implementation behind the style which has helped.

Also, by the time Dun came on board and Shawne started earning minutes they had long since given up on the early offense game.

Then again, this team is truly RUNNING, as in breaks for easy scores, much better than I can recall in years (like back into the 90's at least). They aren't just early sets, they are doing a better job in full transition. I put that on Shawne, Dun and Danny because last year it was basically Tinsley and no one.


Again on Foster, look at his per48. He's always been a top 10 caliber rebounder, he just doesn't play the minutes. Some of that might have been coaching, but he's also had several injuries that limited his PT too.


Tinsley, career high in FGAs, career low in FG%. Am I wrong to consider this a bad combination. Hey, you know that thing you are doing poorly? Do more of that! ;)


Redd, I totally agree on Dunleavy. I said pre-season that a key factor to this team beating my low expectations was his 3P%. Well to my happy surprise he's drastically improved that from recent years. As you point out, across the board he is playing much better than he did last season or in recent years in GS.

The only, nagging caveat has been his NOV numbers last year in GS. Go look at those and tell me why he fell back off the table? And from that, could it happen again? The fact is that his improved play, especially the shooting, is a major factor in this team being in the playoff hunt (early of course).

Anthem
11-30-2007, 04:07 PM
I'm very encouraged by the team... enough so that I shelled out for LP after swearing I wouldn't if they didn't do a summer overhaul. A couple points, however:

With our young players (anybody on a rookie contract) like Shawne, Danny, Ike, and Hulk, this is somewhat expected. They're developing their skills and getting increased minutes. You'd expect the same thing no matter what the coach (although I'm not sure Rick could have gotten through to Hulk, unless of course it's entirely attributable to a contract year).

With Ike / Shawne / Murphy, it's too soon to say what's going to happen because we haven't really had all three at the same time. Shawne wouldn't (mightn't?) be getting the minutes if Ike was available.

But yeah, I'm pretty pleased.

Anthem
11-30-2007, 04:10 PM
One positive I envisioned when we named O'Brien the head coach was that he would be able to maximize a player's talent and ability.
Ok, I really don't want to be the guy who makes everything about Jermaine, but why is it that we assume Obie can maximize Ike's talent or Shawne's talent, but not Jermaine's talent? I mean, he's never had a good big man to work with, but it doesn't seem like he's a guy who can't figure stuff out.

TheDon
11-30-2007, 04:26 PM
Ok, I really don't want to be the guy who makes everything about Jermaine, but why is it that we assume Obie can maximize Ike's talent or Shawne's talent, but not Jermaine's talent? I mean, he's never had a good big man to work with, but it doesn't seem like he's a guy who can't figure stuff out.

:ding:

Speed
11-30-2007, 04:59 PM
OMG JEEZ!!!!!!!!!

http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/preview_071130.html

In the meantime, Jamaal Tinsley and Danny Granger have assumed leadership roles. Tinsley has averaged 19.3 points, 9.7 assists, 6.8 rebounds and 2.83 steals in games O’Neal has missed, including double-doubles in the last three.

Hicks
11-30-2007, 06:34 PM
OMG JEEZ!!!!!!!!!

http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/preview_071130.html

In the meantime, Jamaal Tinsley and Danny Granger have assumed leadership roles. Tinsley has averaged 19.3 points, 9.7 assists, 6.8 rebounds and 2.83 steals in games O’Neal has missed, including double-doubles in the last three.

Yeah, that jumped out at me too.

NPFII
12-02-2007, 06:01 AM
You do realize, of course, that there's only one direction to go from here ...

[/doom-gloom]