PDA

View Full Version : top 5 pick. Certain Star/Risky Bust



Major Cold
05-11-2007, 12:44 PM
I was going to make this a poll, but I am not crafty enough to do that. If some one wants to do it then fine erase this thread.

Is landing a top 5 pick of an average draft (or the next two) getting you a certain star or a risky bust? I wanted to look a previous top 5 selections and classify them. I encourage everyone to evaluate them as well.

I am going to classify them as: All-Star Starter Bench Bust

A bust is not a waste of a pick but an injured or a career DNP person.

I will skip the 06 class because they simply do not have enough time in the NBA to classify them

05 draft
Bogut- Starter
Marvin Williams- Starter (could be a career bench)
Deron Williams- All-Star
Chris Paul- All-Star
Ray Felton- Starter (may be an All-Star but not by play thus far)

40% chance of an All-Star

04 draft
Dwight Howard- All-Star
Emeka Okafor- All-Star (not guaranteed w/ 07 draft class,but good for his team)
Ben Gordon- Starter (what is his future? Could be an All-Star or career bench. I took middle ground)
Shaun Livingston- Bust (assuming he is done)
Devin Harris- Starter

10% bust in the last 2 analzed classed

03 draft
LeBron James-All-Star (no hall of fame classification sorry)
Darko Milicic- Bench (still plays but not consistent enough to start on a contending team)
Anthony- All-Star
Bosh- All-Star
Wade- All-Star

53 % All-Star thus far

02 draft
Yao Ming- All-Star
Jay Williams- Bust
Mike Dunleavy- Bench (on a contending team he is a great bench player, certainly not a bust though)
Drew Gooden- Starter (could see him as a bench on a West team contender)
Nikoloz Tskitishvili- Bust

15 % bust rate thus far (is that how they rate bras:-o )

01 draft
Kwame Brown-Bench (for a number 1 he is a bust IMO, but he still plays)
Tyson Chandler-Starter (before this year I would have put Bench. Does playing where he plays affect that?)
Pau Gasol-All-Star
Eddy Curry- Starter (but may never get starter minutes)
Jason Richardson- Starter (may be an All-Star)

76% of at least getting a starter

00 draft

Kenyon Martin-Bust (he is injured too often to be a bench)
Stromile Swift- Bench
Darius Miles- Bench
Marcus Fizer- Bust
Mike Miller- Starter (on any other team he would not have put up the numbers he did this year)

So out of 30 players

10 are All-Stars
11 are just Starters
5 are Bench players
5 are Busts

Tinker with it if you will. Some could be considered just Starters rather than All-Stars. One thing I noticed, aside from last year the draft classes seem to be getting better. That does not mean that trend will continue. Last year might be an indication of what is to come. Draft classes are no sure thing and putting your franchise soley in that avenue is retarded, just ask the Clippers and Hawks. Even if you find a Jordon, you still need Horace Grant and Pippen. It is a mix. But out of all the pro sports, none relies more on the 1st round of its draft than the NBA.

Jermaniac
05-11-2007, 12:51 PM
Damn that 00 draft sucks

Y2J
05-11-2007, 01:10 PM
I think it's a little negatively skewed because...

(A) You're counting all the young unproven guys as worst-case scenarios

(B) The 5 year sample period happens to include the worst draft in pro sports history, the 2000 NBA Draft.

I did a similar study from 1984-2004, and came away convinced that top-5 picks had a 50% chance of being All-Stars, and the closer to #1 you got, the higher those odds became.

Major Cold
05-11-2007, 01:16 PM
I think it's a little negatively skewed because...

(A) You're counting all the young unproven guys as worst-case scenarios

(B) The 5 year sample period happens to include the worst draft in pro sports history, the 2000 NBA Draft.

I did a similar study from 1984-2004, and came away convinced that top-5 picks had a 50% chance of being All-Stars, and the closer to #1 you got, the higher those odds became.


20 years or not you still have the same odds. Add it up. And just because the 2000 draft sucks does not mean you should omit it.

Till me where I am a little off. Lets talk about it. I feel the closer you are to a number one the greater chance you come away with an All-Star, but you still could get a bust.

Ragnar
05-11-2007, 01:34 PM
the 99 draft was as good as the 00 draft was bad.

Shade
05-11-2007, 01:40 PM
I really wouldn't consider Kenyon Martin an Shaun Livingston busts. They both showed quite a bit before their major injuries.

Major Cold
05-11-2007, 01:40 PM
But what will they do now.

Edit: I know that Kenyon helped the Nets get to the finals so a bust tag on him is a little unfair. But Shaun, if he is done, is a bust. Its all a matter of opinon anyway

Kegboy
05-11-2007, 04:01 PM
Damn that 00 draft sucks

And the thing is, people knew at the time it was too.

When people complain about the draft being a crapshoot, I don't think they realize just how good this draft class is. People always focus on just Oden and Durant, but one must remember that this is really the best of 2 drafts, from top to bottom, thanks to the HS rule.

People look at that list and say, "See, Kwame Brown, he sucks." But at the time, it's not like people were running around saying "Oh, he's gonna be great, he's a sure thing!" There was a lot of question there. Jordan was supposedly going back and forth between the 3 HS'ers quite a bit, and even then there were many critics that said none of them were guarantees, and Washington was in a no-win scenario.

That's not the case here. There are many, many players here that almost everyone believes will "stick". Sure, there are still flyers like that China kid, and there are legitimate concerns, such as Noah's toughness or Hibbert's polish. But I look at a guy like Aaron Gray. He's exactly the kind of big white stiff that invariably gets picked 8-12, usually by perennial lottery teams like GS, hoping the gamble will pay off. In this draft, he's slotted in the mid 20's, and could just as easily fall out of the 1st all together.

For people who don't follow the college game, there is serious, serious quality out there, which makes us not protecting that pick all the more tragic.

Young
05-11-2007, 04:26 PM
I agree with what Kegboy just said.

And the Bulls roster proves what smart drafting in the lottery can do.

Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng are all lottery picks. Duhon was a early second round pick (who I wanted instead of DH), Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha all look to be good for the future.

Many question why John Paxson didn't pull the trigger on Pau Gasol at the trade deadline, maybe because this is a team that is going to be great for a long time, and Gasol is just a short term fix, he isn't worth Deng, Gasol isn't a rebounder or defender. Paxson isn't setting this team up for one or two championship runs, he is setting them up for multiple championships over the next decade. Maybe even the next dynasty, you never know.

And really, if you take a look at his draft style he seems to take good college talent with few questions marks. Hinrich was taken over guys like T.J. Ford and Mickael Pietrus, Gordon and Deng were choosen over Livingston, Harris, and Iggy. I would honestly say that Paxson's biggest risk he has taken in the draft has been Tyrus Thomas.

There are so many good safe talents to take. Wright, Horford, Green, Brewer, Wright, Conley, and Thronton. Out of all the likely lottery picks about the only risks will be Yi and Hibbert, maybe Noah depending where he is picked. This would be a shame for the Pacers to miss out on a player from this draft.

This new age limit is going to help teams out a lot. Even that one year is going to give teams a big insight as to what type of a player a guy can be on the NBA level. Sure there will still be busts, but not as many.

pwee31
05-11-2007, 05:52 PM
I agree with what Kegboy just said.

And the Bulls roster proves what smart drafting in the lottery can do.

Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng are all lottery picks. Duhon was a early second round pick (who I wanted instead of DH), Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha all look to be good for the future.

Many question why John Paxson didn't pull the trigger on Pau Gasol at the trade deadline, maybe because this is a team that is going to be great for a long time, and Gasol is just a short term fix, he isn't worth Deng, Gasol isn't a rebounder or defender. Paxson isn't setting this team up for one or two championship runs, he is setting them up for multiple championships over the next decade. Maybe even the next dynasty, you never know.

And really, if you take a look at his draft style he seems to take good college talent with few questions marks. Hinrich was taken over guys like T.J. Ford and Mickael Pietrus, Gordon and Deng were choosen over Livingston, Harris, and Iggy. I would honestly say that Paxson's biggest risk he has taken in the draft has been Tyrus Thomas.

There are so many good safe talents to take. Wright, Horford, Green, Brewer, Wright, Conley, and Thronton. Out of all the likely lottery picks about the only risks will be Yi and Hibbert, maybe Noah depending where he is picked. This would be a shame for the Pacers to miss out on a player from this draft.

This new age limit is going to help teams out a lot. Even that one year is going to give teams a big insight as to what type of a player a guy can be on the NBA level. Sure there will still be busts, but not as many.

A good example is Josh McRoberts. Coming out of high school he would have been a top 5 pick, last year he still would have been late lottery, but after two years he's dropped to the late 1st round. He's still young and has potential, but making students go to college for at least a year proves to help out with evaluations.

Look at Dominic James, he was a lottery to mid 1st round pick in projections last year, now he's in the 2nd round.

Of course you have guys who are projected to go early out of high school, that excel in college and are still projected high!

You even have the opposite end of the spectrum like Conley Jr. A lot of folks thought he was a McD's all american and goin to OSU b/c of Oden, but he proved that he was a talent himself, though he still played with Oden, he got a chance to show what he can do when Oden was hurt, or in foul trouble... he's now a lottery pick!

Naptown_Seth
05-13-2007, 01:15 AM
Tinker with it if you will. Some could be considered just Starters rather than All-Stars. One thing I noticed, aside from last year the draft classes seem to be getting better. That does not mean that trend will continue. Last year might be an indication of what is to come. Draft classes are no sure thing and putting your franchise soley in that avenue is retarded, just ask the Clippers and Hawks. Even if you find a Jordon, you still need Horace Grant and Pippen. It is a mix. But out of all the pro sports, none relies more on the 1st round of its draft than the NBA.
I think part of the reason you see it that way is that the newer classes are still fresh. Frankly KMart looked stronger at the same point in his career as where Okafur is at right now, and look how that's gone. KMart was quicker than JO when JO was still super quick.


By the way, I've posted it before but 82games (IIRC) did a similar but more extensive study of the draft by potential busts, and there have been several along the lines of what you did. One of the studies I saw used the Hollinger EFF rating to rank the players, but basically the approaches have been the same.

Ultimately the results are that you'd better be top 5 if you want to feel pretty good about your pick, and even then it's a little risky considering the value of the pick. 6-10, big risk, 11+ and you might never see the guy start for your team.


The 2003 class really skews things, James, Melo, Wade is like Bird and Magic in the same year, it just doesn't happen like that most of the time.



Bulls - was Deng picked and then traded for or did they get the pick first? I thought they traded for Deng after he was taken.



People always focus on just Oden and Durant, but one must remember that this is really the best of 2 drafts, from top to bottom, thanks to the HS rule.
No Kegboy, it's not. Who is in this draft that normally wouldn't be? Now who IS NOT in the draft that would be if it was a double year...I'll tell you who, Eric Gordan, Mayo, etc.

This year does NOT feature the best of 2 years. If the FRSH came out last year as HS guys, this year would have new HS guys taking their place (again, Gordan, Mayo, etc).

There will NEVER be a "double dip" draft unless they REVERSE the rule and let last year's HS guys get matched up with this year's HS guys. What you had instead of a double was a year that was THIN because it lacked HS guys from that year AND lacked the FRSH that left out of HS the year before. That of course was the first year of the eligibility rule.

There are no extra guys in this draft by special means. It's deeper because you just happen to have 2 star bigs, a FLA roster that all agreed to stay and repeat as champs, and a guy like Conley coming out perhaps a year too soon. It's just a regular class of players, not a double dip, that happens to be really, really good.


Not only that but NO ONE sees some busts coming. Right now there is a guy in this draft that can't miss but will. There always is. That's why pre-draft it usually looks great and why 5 years later it often doesn't.


No one thought "Bowie? You just passed up the greatest player ever," not even the people that thought it was the wrong choice. Star SG sure, but Magic/Bird, no more than Chris Jackson was going to be (and didn't become).

In fact, speaking of Chris Jackson you have this from "The Sports Network" (might just be an AP reprint)

Durant completed an incredible season in which he led the Big 12 in scoring and rebounding, and was named the Conference Player of the Year. He's also the second-highest scoring freshman in NCAA history, behind only Chris Jackson of LSU in 1989.

Naptown_Seth
05-13-2007, 01:28 AM
BTW, Yi (the China kid) is one of the guys I have more faith in. I'm only sold on about half the top 15 or so being sure things as at least solid starters.

Tom White
05-13-2007, 04:26 PM
The 2003 class really skews things, James, Melo, Wade is like Bird and Magic in the same year, it just doesn't happen like that most of the time.

I understand that James, Melo and Wade are all still quite young in their NBA careers, but until at least two of them can boast multiple NBA championships and MVPs how can you compare them with Magic and Bird?

I just don't see any of the three you listed being in the same category as Magic and Bird were.

Maybe time will prove me wrong. It WILL be fun watching to find out!

King Tuts Tomb
05-13-2007, 05:13 PM
I agree with what Kegboy just said.

And the Bulls roster proves what smart drafting in the lottery can do.



Actually, I think the Bulls are proof of the failure of the draft.

Since 1999 they've had seven lottery picks*, six of them in the top 5. Four of the top 5 picks aren't on the team anymore.

They've relied on the draft for almost a decade and they aren't going to get out of the second round. Why are we allowing poorly run teams to grab all the talent then do nothing with it?

*I didn't include the Tyrus Thomas pick because they didn't earn it by being bad, they just took advantage of a dumb GM.

Young
05-13-2007, 11:36 PM
Actually, I think the Bulls are proof of the failure of the draft.

Since 1999 they've had seven lottery picks*, six of them in the top 5. Four of the top 5 picks aren't on the team anymore.

They've relied on the draft for almost a decade and they aren't going to get out of the second round. Why are we allowing poorly run teams to grab all the talent then do nothing with it?

*I didn't include the Tyrus Thomas pick because they didn't earn it by being bad, they just took advantage of a dumb GM.

Wait one second here.

John Paxson is the guy who has made things happen in Chicago. He took over in April of 2003.

Since Paxson has taken over he has drafted Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Thomas, Sefolosha, Duhon was a find in the second round. He signed some key free agents like Noccioni and Ben Wallace. Oh and he has ended up for two lottery picks out of the Eddy Curry trade. Not to bad right there my friend.

Jerry Krause was in charge before that. He drafted these guys in the lottery:

Elton Brand, Marcus Fizer, Jamal Crawford (traded Chris Mihm for him), Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, and Jay Williams.

Brand has been a stud since his rookie year. Fizer sucks but so did that draft, the best players from that draft are probably Michale Reed, Mike Miller and Jamal Crawford. Chandler has developed very nice into a double double guy. Curry has shown to be one of the best big man scoring in the paint, Williams looked like he was going to work out until the motor cycle wreck I don't really consider him a bust. Just think if that team was kept together, it would have been Williams, Crawford, Brand or Chandler, and Curry. Add about any small forward on to that team and thats a playoff team right there. But Krause didn't know how to put that team together, they did have the talent though.

And it has taken Paxson what? 3-4 years to build this team up. They went from being one of the crappiest teams in the league to a team one piece away from a championship. The Bulls have been going up since Paxson took over.

Even when Krause was there though they were slowly building back up. They took a hit and slowed down the process when they traded Elton Brand for the draft rights to Tyson Chandler. But there won't be as many projects like Chandler and Curry with the new age limit. So a situation like that is unlikely.

It won't happen over night. But I feel that 2 years of re building, 2 years of the lottery not including this year, would set up the Pacers very nicely. Add a few more talented pieces to Ike, Shawne, and Danny and this team should be just fine. One of those pieces must be a point guard though.

King Tuts Tomb
05-14-2007, 02:29 AM
Wait one second here.

John Paxson is the guy who has made things happen in Chicago. He took over in April of 2003.

Since Paxson has taken over he has drafted Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Thomas, Sefolosha, Duhon was a find in the second round. He signed some key free agents like Noccioni and Ben Wallace. Oh and he has ended up for two lottery picks out of the Eddy Curry trade. Not to bad right there my friend.

Jerry Krause was in charge before that. He drafted these guys in the lottery:

Elton Brand, Marcus Fizer, Jamal Crawford (traded Chris Mihm for him), Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, and Jay Williams.

Brand has been a stud since his rookie year. Fizer sucks but so did that draft, the best players from that draft are probably Michale Reed, Mike Miller and Jamal Crawford. Chandler has developed very nice into a double double guy. Curry has shown to be one of the best big man scoring in the paint, Williams looked like he was going to work out until the motor cycle wreck I don't really consider him a bust. Just think if that team was kept together, it would have been Williams, Crawford, Brand or Chandler, and Curry. Add about any small forward on to that team and thats a playoff team right there. But Krause didn't know how to put that team together, they did have the talent though.

And it has taken Paxson what? 3-4 years to build this team up. They went from being one of the crappiest teams in the league to a team one piece away from a championship. The Bulls have been going up since Paxson took over.

Even when Krause was there though they were slowly building back up. They took a hit and slowed down the process when they traded Elton Brand for the draft rights to Tyson Chandler. But there won't be as many projects like Chandler and Curry with the new age limit. So a situation like that is unlikely.

It won't happen over night. But I feel that 2 years of re building, 2 years of the lottery not including this year, would set up the Pacers very nicely. Add a few more talented pieces to Ike, Shawne, and Danny and this team should be just fine. One of those pieces must be a point guard though.

Paxson has had 3 full seasons under his belt. So far his best move has been fleecing Isiah Thomas. He's made some okay to good picks.

But he's made just as many bad moves. Picking Thomas over Aldridge. Signing Ben Wallace to a gigantic contract when he could have kept a younger, cheaper Tyson Chandler who would have given him about the same stats. Not having the guts to pull the trigger on the Pau Gasol deal.

And for the record, I don't think they're one piece away from a championship. From what I've seen, Scott Skiles doesn't have confidence or respect for his players. Ben Gordon can't be counted on as a consistent crunch time scorer, they have no low post scoring. Some of this can be cured through trades, but Paxson's shown that he has no interest in rolling the dice, he just wants to keep stockpiling young players.

colonialspacers
05-14-2007, 09:17 AM
One of the best things Paxson has ever done is decided to not trade for Gasol. Gasol literally has never, ever won a playoff game despite making it to the postseason multiple teams. The Grizzlies, until recent history, managed to surround him with pretty decent talent, but never ONCE has he won in the playoffs. He's been swept every time. Why would anyone want to have to depend on a guy with that kind of track record to be the biggest facet of a possible playoff run? You don't trade away young talent for that kind of risk.

Y2J
05-14-2007, 10:20 AM
The Jazz have rebuilt beautifully and are now on their way to the Western Conference Finals. I'd love for Pacers management to bite the bullet and start the rebuilding process now and duplicate what the Jazz have done.

Major Cold
05-14-2007, 11:45 AM
The Jazz have rebuilt beautifully and are now on their way to the Western Conference Finals. I'd love for Pacers management to bite the bullet and start the rebuilding process now and duplicate what the Jazz have done.


Besides Deron Williams what draft picks have made them what they are? Most of their talent is from Free Agency.

Carlos Boozer is the reason why they are on their way to the WCF. He was drafted by the Cavs with the 6th pick in the 2nd round. I thought the Pacers could have moved to get him in the late 1st round. I liked his grit and inside scoring. But no one thought of him as a potential 20/10 guy. Free Agency allowed the Jazz to see him in NBA action and honor him with a big contract (Cavs would be in the Finals if they resigned him and dropped Ilk.)

Jeff Fisher went there via trade. His leadership and clutch scoring is another difference maker in the GSW series.

Kirilenko was a late 1st rounder in a draft that was stacked.

Jazz players and their draft position
Rafael Araujo- 2004, 1st round, 8th pick by Raptors may be out of the league in 2 years
Carlos Boozer-2002, 2nd round, 6th pick by Cavaliers
Ronnie Brewer -2006, 1st round, 14th pick by Jazz seems to have promise
Dee Brown-2006, 2nd round, 16th pick by Jazz may be a solid player to come
Jarron Collins-2001 Round 2, pick 53 by Jazz fading
Derek Fisher-1996, 1st round, 24th pick by Lakers
Gordan Giricek 1999, 2nd round, 11th pick by Mavs
Matt Harpring-1998, 1st round, 15th pick by Magic knows his role
Andrei Kirilenko-1999, 1st round, 24th pick by Jazz can he be consistent
C.J. Miles- 2005, 2nd round, 34th pick by Jazz
Paul Millsap-2006, 2nd round, 17th pick by Jazz 2006 2nd picks were great for the Jazz
Mehmet Okur-2001, 2nd round, 9th pick by Pistons
Deron Williams-2005, 1st round, 3rd pick by Jazzonly top 5 pick and he is worth it

1st rounders
6 players(only 3 drafted by Jazz)
2nd rounders
7 second rounders 2 starters were drafted by other teams

If you want the Pacers to end up like the Jazz, then FA, trading, and draft is the way to do it. Not just draft. Their biggest moves were FA, not drafting

Y2J
05-14-2007, 12:31 PM
Besides Deron Williams what draft picks have made them what they are? Most of their talent is from Free Agency.

Carlos Boozer is the reason why they are on their way to the WCF. He was drafted by the Cavs with the 6th pick in the 2nd round. I thought the Pacers could have moved to get him in the late 1st round. I liked his grit and inside scoring. But no one thought of him as a potential 20/10 guy. Free Agency allowed the Jazz to see him in NBA action and honor him with a big contract (Cavs would be in the Finals if they resigned him and dropped Ilk.)

Jeff Fisher went there via trade. His leadership and clutch scoring is another difference maker in the GSW series.

Kirilenko was a late 1st rounder in a draft that was stacked.

Jazz players and their draft position
Rafael Araujo- 2004, 1st round, 8th pick by Raptors may be out of the league in 2 years
Carlos Boozer-2002, 2nd round, 6th pick by Cavaliers
Ronnie Brewer -2006, 1st round, 14th pick by Jazz seems to have promise
Dee Brown-2006, 2nd round, 16th pick by Jazz may be a solid player to come
Jarron Collins-2001 Round 2, pick 53 by Jazz fading
Derek Fisher-1996, 1st round, 24th pick by Lakers
Gordan Giricek 1999, 2nd round, 11th pick by Mavs
Matt Harpring-1998, 1st round, 15th pick by Magic knows his role
Andrei Kirilenko-1999, 1st round, 24th pick by Jazz can he be consistent
C.J. Miles- 2005, 2nd round, 34th pick by Jazz
Paul Millsap-2006, 2nd round, 17th pick by Jazz 2006 2nd picks were great for the Jazz
Mehmet Okur-2001, 2nd round, 9th pick by Pistons
Deron Williams-2005, 1st round, 3rd pick by Jazzonly top 5 pick and he is worth it

1st rounders
6 players(only 3 drafted by Jazz)
2nd rounders
7 second rounders 2 starters were drafted by other teams

If you want the Pacers to end up like the Jazz, then FA, trading, and draft is the way to do it. Not just draft. Their biggest moves were FA, not drafting

Free agency is a huge part of rebuilding. That's why it's key to dump a big contract off with J.O.

Naptown_Seth
05-14-2007, 02:10 PM
I understand that James, Melo and Wade are all still quite young in their NBA careers, but until at least two of them can boast multiple NBA championships and MVPs how can you compare them with Magic and Bird?

I just don't see any of the three you listed being in the same category as Magic and Bird were.

Maybe time will prove me wrong. It WILL be fun watching to find out!
Well this is true, but then it actually takes my stance on the issue more rather than going against it. I'm saying that you can't just chalk up greatness and titles off a top 5 pick.

Kobe has 3 rings and wasnt' a top 5...of course he got all 3 with a top 5 on his team.

Back to 2003, the point is really that you can't view that draft as normal anymore than you could expect Bird/Magic to come out together every year just because it happened one time.


King Tut makes a pretty strong case regarding the Bulls success and the draft. Considering just how many top picks they got shouldn't they be winning it all even last year, let alone this year? I mean where are their Duncans, Wades, and Gilberts?

King Tuts Tomb
05-14-2007, 02:12 PM
One of the best things Paxson has ever done is decided to not trade for Gasol. Gasol literally has never, ever won a playoff game despite making it to the postseason multiple teams. The Grizzlies, until recent history, managed to surround him with pretty decent talent, but never ONCE has he won in the playoffs. He's been swept every time. Why would anyone want to have to depend on a guy with that kind of track record to be the biggest facet of a possible playoff run? You don't trade away young talent for that kind of risk.

I'm kind of amazed how people underestimate Gasol. He's insanely skilled and only just entering his prime. In the next couple years you can pretty much pencil in 20 points-9 boards-4 assists-2 blocks, at least. That's damn good.

I always thought the Grizz were making a mistake trying to build a team around him as the main scorer. Put him on the Bulls where he can pick his spots and keep the defenders off Ben Gordon and Kirk Heinrich and he'll thrive.

As for not winning a playoff game, they were never very good and Pau never played poorly in any of the series. He wasn't overpowering, but it wasn't his fault they lost to better teams. They drew the Spurs and Mavs in consecutive years, that's tough. I'd definitely roll the dice with him.

Young
05-14-2007, 02:39 PM
Paxson has had 3 full seasons under his belt. So far his best move has been fleecing Isiah Thomas. He's made some okay to good picks.

But he's made just as many bad moves. Picking Thomas over Aldridge. Signing Ben Wallace to a gigantic contract when he could have kept a younger, cheaper Tyson Chandler who would have given him about the same stats. Not having the guts to pull the trigger on the Pau Gasol deal.

And for the record, I don't think they're one piece away from a championship. From what I've seen, Scott Skiles doesn't have confidence or respect for his players. Ben Gordon can't be counted on as a consistent crunch time scorer, they have no low post scoring. Some of this can be cured through trades, but Paxson's shown that he has no interest in rolling the dice, he just wants to keep stockpiling young players.

Hold up there one second.

John Paxson has been the guy behind the successful rebuild in Chicago. He took over in April of 2003.

http://www.hoopshype.com/general_managers/john_paxson.htm

Someone mentioned the Jazz and how the Pacers should use their blueprint to re-build. How about the Bulls? It didn't take him long at all to make them a playoff team. Now they are so young and so talented. A post scorer away from a championship.

Paxson drafted Hinrich, Gordon, traded for the rights to Luol Deng, and ended up with two lottery picks for Eddy Curry, Tyrus Thomas and a player from this 2007 draft. He also drafted Chris Duhon in the second round and Thabo Sefolosha.

I think that the worst thing that Paxson has done is traded Tyson Chandler for J.R. Smith and P.J. Brown and then signing Ben Wallace to a big contract. But even that wasn't that bad of a scenario for the Bulls.

Before Paxson took over Jerry Krause was in charge. He started the Chicago rebuild by taking Elton Brand number one overall in 1999. After that he drafted Marcus Fizer and traded Chris Mihm for the draft rights to Jamal Crawford (2000), Eddy Curry and traded Elton Brand for the rights to Tyson Chandler (2001), and Jay Williams (2002)

Say that team was still together and healthy. A backcourt of Williams/Crawford and Brand or Chandler at the 4 and Curry in the middle. Who cares who their small forward would be, they would still be in the second round right now.

The Bulls got stuck in a crappy draft in 2000, Martin, Mike Miller, Crawford, and Michael Reed are the best players from that draft, not saying much when those are your best from a draft class. They then hit some bad luck with Jay William's motorcycle crass. But Williams looked pretty decent for a rookie point guard, he would have developed well.

But I really admire what John Paxson has done. He has drafted, good, proven, college players with few-zero question marks. This is what the Pacers need to do. If we spend two years in the lottery we will be in good shape. We already have Williams, Granger, and Ike assuming he developes, just a point guard and another good talent and this team is set. By 2009-2010 this team would be back in the hunt.

I think that people overrate Pau Gasol. He is good, and probably would have got them to the Finals and won this year, maybe next year too, but he isn't worth Luol Deng. Deng is going to be better than Gasol, will net them more than Gasol if they want to trade him. He isn't a very good defender. He would just be a quick fix.

If the Bulls get themselves a low post scorer, then Ben Gordon and their whole perminter game becomes probably the best in the league. With another lottery pick this year they will be able to add a big man there. Anyone from Brandin Wirght, Al Horford, or Jokim Noah. Or they could trade it for a big guy, maybe Gasol or Jermaine. Yes it would be hard to trade for one of them with P.J. Brown's contract expiering but I believe it can still be done. Or they could sign a free agent, take a chance on Darko. The guy is still just 22 years old. He will get better and should come at a good price.

I don't get what the love fest is for Pau. Paxson is going to have this team in position to win multiple championships, maybe even a dynasty. They are young and they didn't need to trade Deng for Pau Gasol.

Paxson has done a great job of re-building those Bulls. I will gladly watch the Pacers continue to suck and land in the lottery if it means we can have a team like the Bulls. People say they want to see the Pacers win a championship then they throw a fit when the lottery is mentioned for the Pacers. Just accept the fact that this team already sucks and is already in the lottery, might as well stick around and do things right. It's not like we have an aging veteran like Reggie Miller needing a ring.