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Naptown_Seth
01-27-2007, 01:40 PM
Right now neither team has a SEASON winning PCT on track for 70 wins. However both teams famously started off slow and since then have been on an almost literal rampage through the league.

PHX - started 1-5 but since then have gone 34-3, a .918 winning PCT. If they were to continue winning at that pace they would fall either at 36-3 (.923) or 35-4 (.897) for their final 39 games. That puts them at 71-70 wins.


DAL - started off 0-4 but since then have gone 35-5, an .875 winning PCT. If they finish their final 38 games at that pace they'd go either 34-4 (.895) or 33-5 (.868). That brings them in just shy at 68-69 wins.

But of course part of this is due to the fact that they just lost their last game, ending an 8 win streak to go with their 13 and 12 win streaks and it could be that they are about to go off on another long stretch of wins (judging by their schedule).



DAL and PHX haven't gone unnoticed by any stretch, and yet I'm not quite sure it's sunk in just how dominating their seasons are going. Two 70 win teams in the same season? I'm pretty sure it's never happened. For all the talk of defense to win in the playoffs, 70 wins is 70 wins. How many 70 win teams didn't win it all?

Shade
01-27-2007, 01:42 PM
I don't see it happening. I predict 66 wins for Dallas, and 68 for Phoenix.

SoupIsGood
01-27-2007, 01:56 PM
I wonder what the record for combined wins from the league's two top teams in any given year is.

Los Angeles
01-27-2007, 02:14 PM
The strange thing here is that I don't see either team as a true contender for the championship. I'll still take the spurs over them in seven games, and think that the top eastern team can give them a run for thier money in the Finals.

No stats here, just gut instinct.

Naptown_Seth
01-27-2007, 02:15 PM
Man, I just went to databasebasketball.com to check the winningest teams list. Yikes.

Even 66 wins would make either of them a top 10 best single season team of all-time.

72 CHI 95-96
69 LAL 71-72
69 CHI 96-97
68 PHI 66-67
68 BOS 72-73

67 BOS 85-86
67 CHI 91-92
67 LAL 99-00
66 MIL 71-72
65 PHI 82-83

Only Boston 72-73 didn't win the title (thanks to that classic Knicks team that went on to feature the famous Willis Reed moment vs LA)

3 of those teams are Jordan teams. You've got 2 Wilt teams as well (top 4 are Jordan/Wilt teams). Bird, Kareem in his prime. Shaq and Kobe together.

Of the top 15 winningest teams only that Boston team of 72-73 and the Detroit team last year (64 wins) didn't win it all or lose to a team higher up the list from them.


Maybe some others were already in this mindset, and I sorta realized this, but I hadn't looked at the list much in the last few years and had lost perspective myself, thus the question of two 70 win teams for example.

To me this was "ho hum, yeah they are doing pretty good". Once I started to wonder and looked into it more I ended up with the thoughts you see in this and the first post.

:eek:

I've been so busy with the Pacers and Colts stuff that I hadn't stepped back for perspective on the overall season. And while I'm the first person to slam people that blame unbalanced schedules in the NBA since its 52-30 in conference vs out, PHX and DAL are actually at a slight disadvantage playing in the West. So it's not built on a cakewalk. Dallas won in SA, UTH, MIA, IND, TOR and ORL this month, all playoff teams except MIA at this point.

Incredible.

bulldog
01-27-2007, 02:16 PM
The strange thing here is that I don't see either team as a true contender for the championship. I'll still take the spurs over them in seven games, and think that the top eastern team can give them a run for thier money in the Finals.

No stats here, just gut instinct.

What? Wait, what?

I don't know how to even begin to adress this, except to say that I think you're in the minority. A very, very small minority.

Naptown_Seth
01-27-2007, 02:23 PM
I wonder what the record for combined wins from the league's two top teams in any given year is.
1995-96
Chicago 72
Seattle 64
Total 136

1996-97
Chicago 69
Utah 64
Total 133

1971-72
Lakers 69
Millwaukee 63
Total 132


How much does that suck for those 3 teams, the top 3 winningest teams featured another team in the top 15 that had to go lose to them. Thanks for playing, here's your parting gift. It's a box of Wheaties and a bottle of Gatorade. :D

[star trek]Khannnn....er, I mean Jordannnnnnnn.....[/star trek]

PostArtestEra
01-27-2007, 02:29 PM
What? Wait, what?

I don't know how to even begin to adress this, except to say that I think you're in the minority. A very, very small minority.

I don't know that he is. I, for one, agree with him. Phoenix is a great regular season team, but they are not a playoff team. That all offense style just doesn't work in a seven game series against a good team. I would take San Antonio over Phoenix in a seven game series, for example. As for the east giving these guys a run for their money, I agree. Miami did beat this Dallas team in the finals last year. You can't honestly say that Detroit, Miami, Cleveland, or dare I say Indiana, won't stand a chance in the finals.

Los Angeles
01-27-2007, 02:39 PM
PostArtestEra has my back.

This is going to be REALLY REALLY unpopular to say in these parts, but I have to say it.

Both the Suns and the Mavs remind me of the Colts. Records getting broken left and right year after year are fine, but history tells a different story. NBA playoff basketball is more about power than speed.

If these two teams are the Colts, then the Spurs are the Pats. Is this the year that they finally get through? My money right now (and predictions don't mean squat until May anyway) is that it isn't. I honestly believe that both teams could run out of steam fighting each other before being shown the door by the Spurs or whoever comes out of the east.

Then again, I'm often accused of relying too much on history - which of course makes me a terrible gambler.

Quis
01-27-2007, 02:46 PM
PostArtestEra has my back.

This is going to be REALLY REALLY unpopular to say in these parts, but I have to say it.

Both the Suns and the Mavs remind me of the Colts. Records getting broken left and right year after year are fine, but history tells a different story. NBA playoff basketball is more about power than speed.

If these two teams are the Colts, then the Spurs are the Pats. Is this the year that they finally get through? My money right now (and predictions don't mean squat until May anyway) is that it isn't. I honestly believe that both teams could run out of steam fighting each other before being shown the door by the Spurs or whoever comes out of the east.

Then again, I'm often accused of relying too much on history - which of course makes me a terrible gambler.

I, and I'm sure everyone else, would take this rant a little more seriously IF THE MAVS HADN'T JUST BEATEN THE SPURS THIS PAST POSTSEASON.

Los Angeles
01-27-2007, 02:52 PM
And then got their butts handed to them by a rag-tag team from Miami.

Unclebuck
01-27-2007, 02:53 PM
One thing to keep in mind that often really, really, really good teams lose a few games right at the end of the regular season. The Bulls in 1996 lost 2 of their last 8 games. That might not sound that bad but when you win 72 games and only lose 10 going 6-2 is a slump.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/1996_games.html

However, if the Mavs and Suns are still fighting it out for homecourt - that could change things.

But I think both teams will win around 65 games.,


Are the Suns a great playoff team: Seem pretty good to me. Two straight WCF finals.

This is by far the Suns best team. Amare is back, Nash is better than ever. Barbosa is a really good player. Suns defense is even pretty good they have the 12th best defensive FG% in the NBA. They have the 4th best defensive 3-pt FG%.

Their rebounding is probably their weaknest part of the game. They have 2 fewer rebs than their oppoents, which is 22nd in the league.

Two years ago I was very vocal about my believe that the Suns were a fraud - but I've changed my mind about this years team. They are really good, and they will be really good in the playoffs.

Quis
01-27-2007, 02:55 PM
And then got their butts handed to them by a rag-tag team from Miami.

In the Finals. After eliminating the Spurs in the 2ND ROUND.

Los Angeles
01-27-2007, 02:59 PM
In the Finals. After eliminating the Spurs in the 2ND ROUND.

Making your point louder does not make it better.

I'll let everyone at Spurs Report argue over the Spurs chances vs. the top two western teams. All I ever wated to say was that I continue to favor the Spurs.

You think I'm wrong and that's fine. We'll have to find out.

Arcadian
01-27-2007, 03:08 PM
I don't believe in the Suns. I think the Mavs can win now that they have a real pg in AJ now. ;)

Frank Slade
01-27-2007, 03:09 PM
I think I may agree with LA Here. Both teams have been impressive and both teams I like personally, especially the Suns ever since the Barkley era.

However I think the Colts comparison could be applicable especially for the Suns. Now maybe this is the year they do make it over the hump, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if both teams fell short again. I do thinks the Mavs stand a better chance especially with how Avery has them now playing some D.

Roferr
01-27-2007, 06:12 PM
Right now neither team has a SEASON winning PCT on track for 70 wins. However both teams famously started off slow and since then have been on an almost literal rampage through the league.

PHX - started 1-5 but since then have gone 34-3, a .918 winning PCT. If they were to continue winning at that pace they would fall either at 36-3 (.923) or 35-4 (.897) for their final 39 games. That puts them at 71-70 wins.


DAL - started off 0-4 but since then have gone 35-5, an .875 winning PCT. If they finish their final 38 games at that pace they'd go either 34-4 (.895) or 33-5 (.868). That brings them in just shy at 68-69 wins.

But of course part of this is due to the fact that they just lost their last game, ending an 8 win streak to go with their 13 and 12 win streaks and it could be that they are about to go off on another long stretch of wins (judging by their schedule).



DAL and PHX haven't gone unnoticed by any stretch, and yet I'm not quite sure it's sunk in just how dominating their seasons are going. Two 70 win teams in the same season? I'm pretty sure it's never happened. For all the talk of defense to win in the playoffs, 70 wins is 70 wins. How many 70 win teams didn't win it all?

I believe the Bulls are the only team to win 70 or more games in one regular season....95-96, 72 wins. The '72 lakers won 69 and the '67 Seventy-sixers won 68, I think.

imawhat
01-27-2007, 06:26 PM
I think the Mavs are the real deal, but I'd still take the Spurs over the Mavs/Suns.


Both of their regular season runs have been remarkable.


You know that 72-10 Bulls team? The Pacers were the only team to beat them twice that year.

Will Galen
01-27-2007, 06:37 PM
I think the Mavs are the real deal, but I'd still take the Spurs over the Mavs/Suns.

I agree, but the Spurs would have to take both of them out. Can they do that?

Naptown_Seth
02-03-2007, 04:02 PM
Making your point louder does not make it better.

I'll let everyone at Spurs Report argue over the Spurs chances vs. the top two western teams. All I ever wated to say was that I continue to favor the Spurs.

You think I'm wrong and that's fine. We'll have to find out.
But to repeat the point again, they JUST DID find out. End of story. You play the series to see if which style wins, Mavs won. Scoreboard, the debate is over, at least the debate about the Mavs style not able to beat the Spurs style in the playoffs. It's already been proven (no longer opinion) that their style can beat the Spurs in the postseason.

It would be different if they hadn't matched up yet. And the Mavs didn't get anything handed to them in the Finals, it was a very close series despite Wade getting about 30 FTAs per game. They were up 2-0 on Miami in fact. Lost 1 game in MIA in OT, lost game 6 in Dallas by 3. This was not Spurs-Nets or Lakers-Pistons.


Marc Stein has a blurb about this very subject at ESPN (Mavs-Suns going for 70)

The 38-9 Mavs and 37-9 Suns, after all, became just the third pair of teams in NBA history to enter February with an .800 winning percentage.

The only times that happened previously for two teams in the same season: 1984-85 and 1980-81. The fallen giants from Boston and Philadelphia, in both cases, were the dueling rivals playing .800 ball as they entered the final three months of the regular season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dailydime_070203-04

Now Marc's take is to look at the overall record as a way of calculating their current pace, which of course includes the terrible starts.

And after the last week or so we now have it as...



PHX - started 1-5 but since then have gone 36-4, a .900 winning PCT. If they were to continue winning at that pace they would fall either at 33-3 (.917) or 32-4 (.889) for their final 39 games. That puts them at 70-69 wins. The PHX loss dropped their pace down slightly. They have about 5-6 tough road games left. This month they are on the road a lot, but many games aren't too tough.


DAL - started off 0-4 but since then have gone 38-5, an .884 winning PCT. If they finish their final 38 games at that pace they'd go either 31-4 (.886) or 30-5 (.857). That brings them in just shy at 69-68 wins.
Their continued winning has raised their projection slightly, but still not quite up to the 70 win pace. Note that DAL has a better record, but that PHX has played better ball since the start of the season when they lost 5 of 6. Technically DAL is on the better overall pace now.






I believe the Bulls are the only team to win 70 or more games in one regular season....95-96, 72 wins. The '72 lakers won 69 and the '67 Seventy-sixers won 68, I think.
Um, yeah, that's why I said the following before you posted ;) :bananadan

Maybe some others were already in this mindset, and I sorta realized this, but I hadn't looked at the list much in the last few years and had lost perspective myself, thus the question of two 70 win teams for example.
It's in the post where I list the top 10 records.

Naptown_Seth
02-03-2007, 04:25 PM
You know that 72-10 Bulls team? The Pacers were the only team to beat them twice that year.

Any decent Pacer fan had many a rant to any Bulls fan he could find about this very fact that year. Now to be fair 2 West teams did also split their series with that Bulls team - Seattle (whom they later faced, another 60+ win team) and Phoenix (the 62 win Barkley team they beat 4 years prior, but was only .500 in this season).

Only 2 teams won in Chicago that year, Charlotte and Indiana. Then Reggie got his eye socket busted, missed 4 of the playoff games vs Atlanta and then lost that game 5 in Indy with Reggie's return for the playoff upset (revenge for ATL from a few years before). Woulda, coulda, shoulda for that year. If only they could have gotten through to Chicago that season.

How'd the Pacers win those 2 games? Let's enjoy some memories thanks to databasebasketball.com. :)
Bulls 72 win season game log at DbBBall.com (http://www.databasebasketball.com/teams/teamscores.htm?tm=CHI&yr=1995&lg=n)

Game 1
http://i92.photobucket.com/albums/l8/Naptown_Seth/PD_general/Bulls-Pacers1.gif


Game 2 (in Chicago and NO REGGIE MILLER)
http://i92.photobucket.com/albums/l8/Naptown_Seth/PD_general/Bulls-Pacers2.gif

denyfizle
02-04-2007, 08:22 AM
Even if they won 70 they're still not anywhere close the Bulls that won 70. I miss those days. That team was simply special. They weren't just America's team, they were the world's team. What I'm concerned more about is if we can try to win 50+ games.

LoneGranger33
02-04-2007, 09:35 AM
I hope Phoenix slows down and D'Antoni lets the bench guys play the last ten games or so...I wouldn't want to see them run out of fuel in the playoffs or risk another injury to Amare. So, I don't see them reaching 70 in this scenario...however, I also don't see them benching anyone either...so I'm torn.

able
02-04-2007, 11:31 AM
Despite them being very good, I agree with LA and I don't easily see either of them winning it all.

NBA Finals, rugged rebounding, scoring after hard work, not that much run&gun possible.

I still favour the East this year.

avoidingtheclowns
02-04-2007, 12:19 PM
i believe the mavs are the real deal. i don't think it should be an argument anymore. whether they actually win a championship is a different story. i see the mavs the same way i see the spurs: both amazingly talented, well coached teams. offense is great, defense is great. i think dallas moved from pretender to contender last season when it decided to try defense out. but does anyone really believe or see the mavs of today as the same team that could barely make a crack in the playoffs after great regular seasons under nellie? i certainly don't. once again not guarenteeing a championship because they have a difficult road to travel in the spurs, suns, jazz and if they hold up, the rockets defense has been stellar this season. plus we saw last season that the lakers can be surprising come playoff time.

now to the suns...

i think the suns are deeper than ever. when you can't find minutes for jumaine jones, you know its a fairly deep and talented team. i think that they are offensively the most complete starting lineup around with nash, bell, marion, diaw and amare.

heres my problem... this style isn't good for long-term success. it never has been. nash wears down every year. then when you get talented defensive teams in a long series, they tend to figure out what to do (like the mavs did last year) add to those defensive teams the ability to shoot and pound the paint and enforce their tempo on the suns, and they won't be able to hold up.

i think the suns record is a little misleading. lets compare the mavs and the suns records against the elite in the west (to me that means if the playoffs were to begin today...)

MAVS VS WEST ... 11-5
Nuggets: 2-0
Clippers: 1-1
Lakers: 2-1
Rockets: 1-1
Jazz: 1-1
Spurs: 2-1
Suns: 2-0

SUNS VS. WEST ... 4-8
Nuggets: 0-0
Clippers: 1-1
Lakers: 0-1
Rockets: 2-0
Jazz: 0-3
Spurs: 1-1
Mavs: 0-2


Now if you want to take into account that both teams had rough starts, we'll look at their records against the west for October and November.


MAVS 2-3 (Nov.)
MAVS 9-2 (Since)

SUNS 2-6 (Oct/Nov)
SUNS 2-2 (Since)


So the Suns record has come without having to face the Western elite. The Mavs have on the other hand. No the Suns haven't had the same opportunities, its not like they've been losing to the western elite, but I don't know if you can project them the real thing until they play the top 8 western teams.

3rdStrike
02-04-2007, 01:53 PM
The Suns are not only the most dominant scoring team in recent memory, they are also one of the highest rated teams in defensive efficiency.

The Mavs are a very good dominant team as well, although they don't have the six 20 point options as the Suns do.

The Spurs are a threat to neither. San Antonio couldn't beat 'em last year. The Spurs are worse this year. The Mavs and Suns are unquestionably better. Quick math lesson: 2+2 = ?

If the Suns or Mavs fail to win the Championship this year, it won't be because they can't beat the Spurs. The Spurs' window of opportunity is closing extremely fast, and their days of dominance are over.

Steve Nash is playing the best point I have ever seen by anyone not named Magic.

Naptown_Seth
02-27-2007, 03:21 AM
DAL - started off 0-4 but since then have gone 47-5, an .904 winning PCT. If they finish their final 26 games at that pace they'd go either 24-2 (.923) or 23-3 (.885). That brings them in 71 or 70 wins.

The last time I posted this version of the outlook was right before they went on this 12 game win streak. They have about 6 tough games left vs teams like PHX or DET, a couple of those are on the road. It could be close.


PHX blew it when Nash got hurt, but no surprise there. Still headed toward the mid-60's if Nash can keep playing. But the Suns have to be concerned with the Spurs catching them.

Remember that the new playoff seeding is the 3 division winners and the top non-division winner pooled into the top 4 seeds BY RECORD. So the Spurs could still be the #2 seed and have HC over the Suns if they could make up the 4 games they are behind.


Meanwhile the East turned back the clock to 01-02 with DET being the only team headed for a 50 win season right now, and low 50s at that.

Unclebuck
02-27-2007, 08:47 AM
Beware of the Spurs who are starting to play extremely well

Fool
02-27-2007, 10:43 AM
Are the Suns a great playoff team: Seem pretty good to me. Two straight WCF finals.

A little perspective: The Suns have won a total of 3 games in those two WCF finals appearances and last year they were taken to game 7 in each of the rounds prior to the WCF. Don't take that as a prediction of the future, by me, I'm just saying. There was a time where the Nets had made it to the NBA Finals 2 years in a row. Of course they managed only 2 wins total in those 2 appearances.

Naptown_Seth
02-28-2007, 05:45 PM
Beware of the Spurs who are starting to play extremely well
OT:mad:

This ain't the playoff talk thread, it's the "how many games can teams win thread."


j/k :devil:

Just making a point that my main theme isn't how either team (or the Spurs or the East) will do in the postseason, but only monitoring their chase for 70 wins once I noticed that it was getting in reach after their slow starts.

Don't read into any of my comments not directly focused on playoff chances anything other than W-L projections.

The rest of you can continue to bicker over Spurs vs Suns playoff chances in here all you want. :D

But on that note, doesn't this have all the makings of the Mavs revenge tour so typical with other team's rise to the title? Lose ECF, win ECF lose Finals, win Finals...pretty common theme in NBA playoffs history, almost boring in its typical repetition. Pistons from 02-03 to 04-05 anyone.

Pair that with how Avery coaches, them having an MVP candidate and being on a monster tear for one of the greatest seasons ever and it looks pretty obvious to me.

And dismissing their W-L total is wrong as far as I'm concerned. They have faced teams like SA, PHX, UTH and HOU along this path, it's not like those are pushover teams lacking in talent. To me their competition is equal to what the Bulls went through to get to 72.

Not calling them equal to that team, but then I don't have to clarify that because they aren't going to get 72 wins anyway. I'm just saying that if they hit 68 or so wins, it's a legit effort IMO.

Heck, they had the extra handicap of having Croshere and AJ on the team too. ;)

imawhat
02-28-2007, 05:57 PM
Any decent Pacer fan had many a rant to any Bulls fan he could find about this very fact that year. Now to be fair 2 West teams did also split their series with that Bulls team - Seattle (whom they later faced, another 60+ win team) and Phoenix (the 62 win Barkley team they beat 4 years prior, but was only .500 in this season).

Only 2 teams won in Chicago that year, Charlotte and Indiana. Then Reggie got his eye socket busted, missed 4 of the playoff games vs Atlanta and then lost that game 5 in Indy with Reggie's return for the playoff upset (revenge for ATL from a few years before). Woulda, coulda, shoulda for that year. If only they could have gotten through to Chicago that season.

How'd the Pacers win those 2 games? Let's enjoy some memories thanks to databasebasketball.com. :)
Bulls 72 win season game log at DbBBall.com (http://www.databasebasketball.com/teams/teamscores.htm?tm=CHI&yr=1995&lg=n)

Game 1
http://i92.photobucket.com/albums/l8/Naptown_Seth/PD_general/Bulls-Pacers1.gif


Game 2 (in Chicago and NO REGGIE MILLER)
http://i92.photobucket.com/albums/l8/Naptown_Seth/PD_general/Bulls-Pacers2.gif


btw, that was Travis Best's first good game for the Pacers