PDA

View Full Version : Tough schedule?



Naptown_Seth
11-11-2006, 04:40 PM
Okay, when the schedule first came out my reaction (maybe only at Star, not sure about at PD) was that the final month or so was going to be brutal, but that the Pacers had a soft start to the season.

Then people talked about all the road vs home games and the idea of it being a tough start picked up for me I guess. But more than that I think I wrapped the idea of the Pacers just having a rough early season due to chemistry/roster issues (as in trying to figure it all out and learning to play together) into the idea that the matchups were tough.


So while I will still agree that coming out the first 30 games at 15-15 would make me feel pretty good about it, I can't agree (even if I said it before) that the early schedule is tough.

One playoff team from last year so far and they blasted the Pacers. The team has been handed a patty-cake start which is just what they needed to help get them through the learning phase.

I'll give you that perhaps NO/OKC is the real deal which makes that loss look more acceptable, but are any of the wins games that a fan would have thought was a reasonable loss for a GOOD team? Not IMO.

The 2 road games at Chicago, now there is a marker to go by. Cleveland and NJ are decent matchups, though both at home and NJ especially didn't look threatening last year.

The first West trip is even the lighter version - borderline teams like GS, LAL and Denver are the tough games. No PHX or DAL (even with the slow starts let's be realistic), no SA, no LAC, no Utah.

In December they have about 10-11 wins expected at least if they are of the CLE, CHI, DET, MIA caliber squad.

Contrast the first 2 months with stuff like JAN which features on the road - DAL, NO/OKC, NJ, MIA and DET. And at home - DAL, CHI, MIA. You have 5 "easy" games thrown into that mix. It's downright brutal compared to this month's lineup.

March is just as painful with road games - PHX, LAC, Sacto, Utah, CLE, HOU, SA, and NJ. Home games - WSH, MIA, CHI, CLE. You've only got 4 "easy" games to go with those 12 tough ones, and that's with games at Minny and at ORL being 2 of the "rest stops". And that 4 game West trip is 2 pairs of BACK TO BACKS even, which really hurts them with that level of travel. The month features 6 back to backs in total.

April ends up being an easy month because it "only" features home games vs SA, DET, NJ and WSH and 1 road game at MIA. A month that is only 50-50 in terms of "tough" vs "easy" games with several of the tough ones at home.



The point? I like the early wins and had my concerns about the team finding their way early, but the hard truth is that even if they are a solid 4-8th seed team they could hit the skids hard in the 2nd half of the season. Their schedule is heavily back loaded with tough games.

Fans might want to be prepared and to keep things in perspective. If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances.


PS - naturally it could end up different if someone like PHX really is in the toilet. There could be some surprisingly good or bad teams as always. I just wouldn't count on it since the NBA typically doesn't shock fans. Bad teams become competitive (or vice versa) but they don't win it all out of nowhere.

Naptown_Seth
11-11-2006, 04:50 PM
BTW, you want tough? Look at Chicago's Novemeber schedule. They get a 7 game road trip that includes the Texas dip plus LAL and DEN as the "easy" West teams, instead of being the toughest on the trip. Even their easier PHI matchup comes at the end of the trip with travel from LA to DEN to PHI. They get a few days to catch up, but still its a coast to coast with no home time in between.

They also had/have games at MIA and CLE plus home games vs SAC and IND. If they come out of the month above .500 they should be feeling pretty good about their chances.

JayRedd
11-11-2006, 05:38 PM
Their are teams with tougher schedules than us--and I'd argue that there's no such thing as an easy NBA schedule--but I still see ours as pretty brutal.

For the elite teams in the NBA (50+ wins) the general rule is to "Protect your home court and go .500 on the road." So by that logic, with us "protecting" Conseco by going 4-2 in our 6 home games in Nov and .500 in our 10 road games, we'd be 9-7.

December has 8 at home and 8 on the road, so ideally, if we are elite, we'd win 6 of the homes and 4 of the aways. That would give us an overall record of 19-13 on January 1. But, while I like what I see so far out of this group, I'm not ready to proclaim us a 50+ win squad that's gonna be in 70% home wins category. Especially not until our "sell-outs" start looking like there's actually 18,000+ in the stands.

Plus, we have 8 more back-to-backs before 2007, which always is more difficult. Plus, we have to expect at least a minor injury or two from our key guys that will make things tougher.

So, if you look at the names of the teams we play, we don't have SA, DAL, PHX, MIA, NJ, CHI, LAC, HOU, UTAH three times each or anything, but it's difficult to win on the road even in Portland, Charlotte or Boston in this league.

And we have 9 of our next 12 on the road. Let's just say, I'm glad we got a little cushion early. And I'll be happy if come back from out West at 9-9.

Kegboy
11-11-2006, 06:45 PM
Yeah, I also thought the road fears were unwarranted. Not only is the competition light, but one would think all the early travel helps chemistry and cohesion.

Unclebuck
11-11-2006, 08:18 PM
December is the toughest month, mainly for the number of games. Or I should say starting right after Thanksgiving things get really tough. With 4 in 5 days all on the road, and 5 out of 7 coming and going, and then it doesn't let up when the pacers get home. ,

Naptown_Seth
11-12-2006, 12:46 AM
Jay, I agree with that rule of thumb, but we both know that it's based overall on how many tough vs easy games you will face on the road. You end up .500 by getting wins in CHA to make up for losses in SA, DAL or MIA.

The problem could be that they end up "spending" some of those make-up wins on losses to teams they should beat, which will force them to go .500 on the road vs almost all 50+ win caliber squads.

Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% happy with how they've come out. I just fear that some fans are going to get really negative when the going gets tough, because it gets a lot tougher after New Year's in terms of WHO they play rather than when and where.

Tonight's game at Chicago was a hopeful sign. If they can keep from losing too many due to their own internal struggles and can get it together in the next 2 months they could still slot decently in the playoffs.

Naptown_Seth
11-12-2006, 07:21 PM
Another note about the schedule, after the tough CHI loss the Pacers are getting a really strong chance to regroup and start to put it together for a little run.

3 days off before going to Boston, then games vs ORL, MIL (home and away), NJ in Indy and at ORL before hosting CLE in a few weeks. Going 4-1 in that stretch is certainly within reach I think, and that would plant them at a nice 8-4 and a possible shot at passing CLE for the Central lead with a win in their game.

Now's the time to fatten up a bit for the lean days to come.

Roferr
11-20-2006, 08:55 AM
Personally, I would have liked to see the Pacers start off with a few games with last year's playoff teams. We knew that it was going to be shooting craps as far as settling on a consinstent starting five and substitution pattern.

The losses would be losses we wouldn't have to sustain against the better teams later on in the season when we are a more developed team. As it stands now, we have 5 losses to some border-line teams, which would have been much more winnable later in the season.

Except for the Bulls and Nets, who have we played? The way the Bulls have played makes me wonder whether I've entirely over-rated them when I picked them to take it all, but that's another post.

Now, when we face the elite, we're going to get hit like running into a brick wall. Maybe, we've just been playing down to the level of our competition and will step it up when the big boys come on.

My concern is that when we do round into shape and are playing are best ball, it just might not be good enough for the best teams and we lose a few hard fought, close games.

Naptown_Seth
11-20-2006, 05:28 PM
Yeah, I said something similar somewhere around here recently, that now would be the time to take those "probable" losses in Dallas or San Antonio or Miami.

It's tough, do you take easier competition when you are weak so you have a chance to win every game over the course of the season, but also to lose them all? Or do you concede 30-40 early losses in order to have winning matchups to end the year?

Having seen them lose a few of these easier games we obviously agree that it would be better to lose what you were going to probably lose anyway. But that's hindsight talking.

Naptown_Seth
12-03-2006, 01:48 AM
I will say that after seeing the team come out in the 2nd half looking really tired/disinterested I think JayRedd's point about road games looks stronger.

Others had been focusing on it which got me looking back at it, but right now the Pacers again (still) lead the NBA in road games, with 12. Only a couple of other teams even have 10-11 road games yet. And the Pacers still have another one yet to come.

In fact 3 teams have 10 and 2 others have 11. Guess what, all 6 teams with 10+ road games are from the EAST. Maybe that has something to do with the East vs West thing too. I was surprised to notice how unbalanced that was at this point.

The West only has 4 teams that have even played 9 road games, and GS has only played 4. The Lakers have only played 5, and one of those was vs LAC which is literally a home game still. The Lakers haven't gone east of Salt Lake City yet.

So maybe the road-home thing will alter some of the landscape. The Lakers eventually have an 8 game road trip in which they don't go WEST of Detroit/Indy for about 2 weeks...and during the FEB winter no less, Atlanta being the only warm weather city on the trip.


Best thing to note, the Pacers are 2-1 vs the top 3 East teams (1-1 vs ORL, 1-0 vs CLE, 0-0 vs DET).

maragin
12-04-2006, 02:56 PM
My pre-season hope was for 7 wins in the first 20 games, and maybe .500 by the ASB. Even with letdown games like we had at Denver, we are still exceeding my expectations. (or so I remind myself)

JayRedd
12-07-2006, 08:20 PM
I think our record is about as good as we could expect right now. The road is always tough, no matter the competition. Especially on the extended trips.

But I really think it's good that we had all these road games early. With all the new personnel, and all of the new things Rick is supposedly implementing, we weren't going to be consistent or find an identity in the first 20 games anyway. Given that, I doubt we would have done much better had we played 14 homes games during this adjustment phase. So may as well get the roadies out the way while we're figuring the rotations/assignments/roles/etc.

We've exceeded my expectations so far.

Naptown_Seth
12-14-2006, 01:06 AM
Just keeping this as the catch all for schedule specific talk/review.

After the win tonight
Home 7-2
Road 5-10

That projects to
Home 32-9
Road 14-27
46-36 overall, basically about where expected by many posters here. I think my guess was around 48-49.

Why can you believe those numbers? Well 4 of the road losses were 2nd nights of back to backs. 8 of the 17 road games on the 2nd night of back to backs have already been played (4-4 in those so far). 2 of the 6 total road and road back to backs have already been played.

The longest road trip of the year is over. The Pacers only go across the Mississippi for 4 games straight from now on. They also have a 2 game set with SA/Houston and another with DAL/OKC.

The last 2 road losses featured no JO, the Chicago game obviously featured 3 starters MIA.

At home the Pacers have lost to NJ and OKC. Both were in the first 10 games of the season and before Foster moved to the starting position, even before Jackson was tried coming off the bench.

OKC featured Al in his 2 game slump to start the year, 1-9, and Saras in his early slump as well, 1-8. NJ was a 1 point game with 2:45 left and a 3 point game with less than 2 to play. It also feature Daniels finishing the game (good night for him, terrible shooting from Jack that night) and only 7 Pacers playing more than 7 minutes, with Saras only seeing 3...just to show how much things have changed since then.

Teams the Pacers have beaten at home so far - Orlando (twice), Cleveland, Detroit, MIL, PHI, POR...so 4 of the 7 wins have been against the top 3 teams in the East. Pacers have a 5 game home winning streak going.

In FEB the Pacers play NINE of 11 games at home. NINE. This includes 6 straight at home with the first 4 being teams coming from Denver or farther west.

In March there are a lot of road games, but in the Pacers favor is a 3 game homestand near the end of the month with a day in between each of the games, and these games are MIA, CHI, and CLE which means that the Pacers get a bump from their schedule in what could be some crucial playoff race games.


We have a chance to get another indicator when Utah comes to town on SUN. This will mean the Pacers will have played ALL their home games against the #1 East and #1 West teams for the year (as of the current standings). If they can win this game (and of course the NY game) then the case for a 50 win season only gets stronger.

The Pacers have 12 home games against the top 9 NBA teams (currently). After Utah they will have played 5 of those already. That only leaves 7 of those to go with 26 against teams playing roughly .500 or worse ball.

JayRedd
12-14-2006, 01:51 AM
After the win tonight
Home 7-2
Road 5-10

That projects to
Home 32-9
Road 14-27
46-36 overall, basically about where expected by many posters here. I think my guess was around 48-49.


Taking care of home court. That's exactly what we needed to do to weather the early-season storm of all these roadies. Great work defending Conseco.

February should be great. 9 of 11 at home plus the All Star break to rest and heal.

Let's just hope our boys don't do anything crazy in Las Vegas. Or, more realistically, lets just hope no one hears about the crazy things our our boys do in Las Vegas.

Naptown_Seth
12-14-2006, 02:51 AM
Let's just hope our boys don't do anything crazy in Las Vegas. Or, more realistically, lets just hope no one hears about the crazy things our our boys do in Las Vegas.
[Matt Foley]Jay, I'd wish you could shut your big YAPPER![/Matt Foley]
;) :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Foley (for non-SNL fans)

rexnom
12-14-2006, 09:23 AM
Taking care of home court. That's exactly what we needed to do to weather the early-season storm of all these roadies. Great work defending Conseco.

February should be great. 9 of 11 at home plus the All Star break to rest and heal.

Let's just hope our boys don't do anything crazy in Las Vegas. Or, more realistically, lets just hope no one hears about the crazy things our our boys do in Las Vegas.
Moving the AS game to Las Vegas was either the greatest idea in NBA history or the worst...I'm not quite sure yet.

I know for a fact that the players would prefer it over Salt Lake City or, gulp, Indianapolis...

ABADays
12-14-2006, 12:50 PM
Actually, I think moving the All-Star Game to Las Vegas was brilliant. Can you imagine the showcase set up for that one.

Speed
12-14-2006, 08:52 PM
good teams win 50% of road games and dominate at home. If we win 50% of the reamaining road games, I'll start to believe. It's very conceivable that with the newness of this incarnation of this team that they could improve. It's the obvious, be healthy, Tinsley seems to be dead set on playing, and is probably the most important player IF he stays healthy. I wasn't sure where to put this, but I think that his defense is getting better or at least does in spurts. He is the key. Now back to the toughness of the schedule, its very interesting to me back when the Pacers were one of the best I would look at the schedule and think, wow, I don't see us losing any of these coming games, now its like wow, I don't know how we could win some of these games. The nex 2 months will be real interesting to see if we get the Pacers who played Detroit or the ones that played Cle the 2nd time.

Naptown_Seth
01-09-2007, 01:51 PM
Another home/road projection update, plus taking a look at the next few weeks.

Home 9-5
Road 9-11

Projects to
Home 26-15
Road 18-23
Total 44-38

Down a total of 2 wins in the projection from 3 weeks ago. Of course the Minny and Charlotte home losses had a major impact on that, and when you consider just how far up Indy was in that Minny game you can see where the JO frustration comes in. Let's say they hold both the Minny and Dallas wins...

10-4 -> 29-12
10-10 -> 20-21 or 21-20
49 or 50 win projection instead, including what would have been a road win in Dallas plus a road win in Detroit.


Here's the good news, the Pacers only have 8 more West road games to go, and of those on PHX, Utah and San Antonio look really tough. Clips, Kings, Minny, Houston (w/out Yao) and Griz are all winnable matchups.


Now for the upcoming look. I just joked about the win 2 lose repeat cycle they've got going, but game 3 this time would be @Boston if they win at home vs Atlanta.

If they could get those 2 wins and establish their first 3 game streak then it would carry into a tough home game vs Dallas. But after that they get 2 of their easier road games - NJ and the faltering MIA (who they had luck against even when they were strong).

After that it really eases up with 4 home games and only CHI a real threat, then the @DET (obviously tough), and then back at home for Boston to end the month. 8-3 or 7-4 to finish the month is not unrealistic to expect from the talent, even given some of the ups and downs.

And that leads right into the super soft FEB with only 2 road games (MEM, TOR) compared to 9 home games, most of which are mediocre West teams traveling East (only PHX is a top tier opponent in all of FEB). 9-2, 8-3 at the least should be the expectation for this current roster.

Just winning the reasonable games in the next 2 months would get them out to around 34-22. No major upsets required.


Now's the time to make the put up or shut up run. The time to gel is over, the time to shake off the rust, get to know each other, find rotations, etc is over. The complaints about road trips are over.

Naptown_Seth
01-09-2007, 01:59 PM
From 2 months ago by me, just for whatever perspective...


So while I will still agree that coming out the first 30 games at 15-15 would make me feel pretty good about it, I can't agree (even if I said it before) that the early schedule is tough.
They went 16-14. So no surprise that I feel pretty good about it then.

and

If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances.
Add the 1-1 already and you have me currently expecting a 9-4 or 8-5 JAN, which I guess means that I expect to be pumped about their chances.

Again, it seems like not every fan on PD has been consistant/fair with their expectations of the team. Right now they are still on track to be a 5th-6th seed and playing better at the end of the season than the beginning.

maragin
01-09-2007, 02:56 PM
This season, so far, is exceeding my expectations. My hope for at least 7-13 levelling out to .500 by the ASB looks good so far. To be tacked onto that, I would like to find a "final" rotation by the 54-55 game mark. (including anyone brought in via trade)

I'd like to finish on an upswing, find rhythm, and hopefully get to around 48 wins. I like our potential to get out of the first round, and maybe just be the team no one wants to play.

Roferr
01-09-2007, 03:26 PM
Okay, when the schedule first came out my reaction (maybe only at Star, not sure about at PD) was that the final month or so was going to be brutal, but that the Pacers had a soft start to the season.

Then people talked about all the road vs home games and the idea of it being a tough start picked up for me I guess. But more than that I think I wrapped the idea of the Pacers just having a rough early season due to chemistry/roster issues (as in trying to figure it all out and learning to play together) into the idea that the matchups were tough.


So while I will still agree that coming out the first 30 games at 15-15 would make me feel pretty good about it, I can't agree (even if I said it before) that the early schedule is tough.

One playoff team from last year so far and they blasted the Pacers. The team has been handed a patty-cake start which is just what they needed to help get them through the learning phase.

I'll give you that perhaps NO/OKC is the real deal which makes that loss look more acceptable, but are any of the wins games that a fan would have thought was a reasonable loss for a GOOD team? Not IMO.

The 2 road games at Chicago, now there is a marker to go by. Cleveland and NJ are decent matchups, though both at home and NJ especially didn't look threatening last year.

The first West trip is even the lighter version - borderline teams like GS, LAL and Denver are the tough games. No PHX or DAL (even with the slow starts let's be realistic), no SA, no LAC, no Utah.

In December they have about 10-11 wins expected at least if they are of the CLE, CHI, DET, MIA caliber squad.

Contrast the first 2 months with stuff like JAN which features on the road - DAL, NO/OKC, NJ, MIA and DET. And at home - DAL, CHI, MIA. You have 5 "easy" games thrown into that mix. It's downright brutal compared to this month's lineup.

March is just as painful with road games - PHX, LAC, Sacto, Utah, CLE, HOU, SA, and NJ. Home games - WSH, MIA, CHI, CLE. You've only got 4 "easy" games to go with those 12 tough ones, and that's with games at Minny and at ORL being 2 of the "rest stops". And that 4 game West trip is 2 pairs of BACK TO BACKS even, which really hurts them with that level of travel. The month features 6 back to backs in total.

April ends up being an easy month because it "only" features home games vs SA, DET, NJ and WSH and 1 road game at MIA. A month that is only 50-50 in terms of "tough" vs "easy" games with several of the tough ones at home.



The point? I like the early wins and had my concerns about the team finding their way early, but the hard truth is that even if they are a solid 4-8th seed team they could hit the skids hard in the 2nd half of the season. Their schedule is heavily back loaded with tough games.

Fans might want to be prepared and to keep things in perspective. If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances.


PS - naturally it could end up different if someone like PHX really is in the toilet. There could be some surprisingly good or bad teams as always. I just wouldn't count on it since the NBA typically doesn't shock fans. Bad teams become competitive (or vice versa) but they don't win it all out of nowhere.

Those are good points about the upcoming schedule. However, I think it's offset somewhat by the fact that the Pacers have played more road games (20) than any other team. Also, I believe that they have had 10 back to backs which is probably close to the most.

The quality of the teams in the second half go up but we have 27 of the last 48 at home. Hopefully, that will even out the higher level of competition.

I still look for 48-50 wins. I'll probably catch hell for predicting this number, but the talent is there if RC can establish a consistent rotation pattern.

Naptown_Seth
01-10-2007, 12:24 AM
Roferr, you'll note that I've already switched to the "road vs home" view since that initital post. See my December 3rd post where Jay had me convinced.

I just bump this thread as the "schedule talk" thread, not really promoting the first post as my current view on it.

JayRedd
01-10-2007, 11:12 AM
Alright, boys and girls, here comes the good stretch.

This is our remaining schedule until All Star Weekend.

New Jersey is starting to play better, and Miami does have Dwyane back, but if you just look at team records, the only team we have to face on the road with a winning percentage over .441 (as of today) is Detroit. And given that it's A) Detroit and B) a Sunday night ESPN game, we should be at least putting up 110% effort in the Palace.

The home schedule is by no means cupcake (Dallas, Chicago, Miami, LAL, Denver, Clips), but we do get 12 of our next 17 in Conseco.

We currently stand at 19-16. And with this stretch of schedule, we should be able to go at least 10-7 in those next 17.

That would leave us at 29-23 going into the break. To me, a record like that would make the first half a success, and set us up well for a late-season push.


January

<table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 10</td> <td>at Boston (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/bos)</td> <td>
(http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/preview?gid=2007011002)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 12</td> <td>vs Dallas (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/dal)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 15</td> <td>at New Jersey (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/njn)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 18</td> <td>at Miami (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/mia)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
(http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=10914/*http://tickets.yahoo.com/search.html?ck=Heat+Pacers&fullnodeid=750007219&sm=01&sd=18&sy=2007&em=01&ed=19&ey=2007&l2=1)</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 20</td> <td>vs New York (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/nyk)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 22</td> <td>vs Chicago (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/chi)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 24</td> <td>vs Miami (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/mia)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 27</td> <td>vs Toronto (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/tor)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 28</td> <td>at Detroit (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/det)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Jan 30</td> <td>vs Boston (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/bos)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>
February

<table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Feb 2</td> <td>vs LA Lakers (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/lal)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Feb 3</td> <td>at Memphis (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/mem)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Feb 5</td> <td>vs Golden State (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/gsw)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Feb 7</td> <td>vs Seattle (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/sea)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Feb 9</td> <td>vs Denver (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/den)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Feb 11</td> <td>vs LA Clippers (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/lac)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr class="ysprow2"> <td height="18">Feb 14</td> <td>vs Memphis (http://www.pacersdigest.com/nba/teams/mem)</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Naptown_Seth
01-11-2007, 07:06 AM
Here's one really noticeable aspect. A day rest before Dallas at home on a FRI night (ie, big crowd). Unfortunately Dallas also gets a day rest and the travel up from Dallas is just as short as coming back from Boston. At least we have some cold weather to welcome them. :)

Still, this is a winnable game and doing so would have a buch of effects. One it would just make the statement of their ability level. Two they would have a 4 win streak for the first time this year. Three they would be 5 over .500 for the first time this year.

And best of all is that while they do go to NJ and MIA right after that, they have TWO DAYS OFF before each game, and then get another day off before facing NY at home. So from a schedule viewpoint this is one of the friendliest stretches you'll find. A Dallas win could easily turn into a 7 game win streak.


Let's hope they take advantage because a really rough 4 set of West road games is looming just past that, or 6 of 7 on the road total if you add the 3 games after it. Make a big move now in order to handle the lumps they'll take a bit later.

Frank Slade
01-11-2007, 10:36 AM
Indeed this should be a little easier stretch of games coming up. I am anxious to see if we can take advantage.

Consider even now only one team the Sixers, have played less home games(12) than Indiana has which is at (15).

Only 5 of Chicago's wins have come on the road as they are a dreadful 5 and 12 on the road with 4 more home games played than the Pacers.

Clevleand who leads the conference has only won 7 of it's 22 games on the road, and is 7-9 over all away from home. Even Washington has only won 6 of it's 20 games on the road this year. (6-11 overall).

Compare that to Indiana who has won half of it's 20 games on the road. These next few weeks will really tell us alot about this club and
The expression make hay while the sun shines would apply here :sunshine:

FlavaDave
01-11-2007, 11:25 AM
If we can beat Dallas, we will be on a 4 game win streak, which is a great soundbite for TV. Then, we play NJ, MIA, and NY which are three very winable games against sub-.500 teams.

This is a golden opportunity to win 7 in a row and really perk the ears of the "lost" fanbase.

Naptown_Seth
01-11-2007, 12:55 PM
The expression make hay while the sun shines would apply here :sunshine:
I like that. Definitely applies.


Flava - I agree, great chance to win back fans. Of course if they don't make hay now then.... :(

JayRedd
01-11-2007, 02:40 PM
Of course if they don't make hay now then.... :(

We're sitting in a big pile of cow fertilizer

quiller
01-12-2007, 12:26 AM
If we can beat Dallas, we will be on a 4 game win streak, which is a great soundbite for TV. Then, we play NJ, MIA, and NY which are three very winable games against sub-.500 teams.

This is a golden opportunity to win 7 in a row and really perk the ears of the "lost" fanbase.


yes but playing Mia twice in the next few weeks now that wade is back and Shaq has started to practice... both could have waited a couple weeks... makes those games harder then they look

Naptown_Seth
01-16-2007, 11:37 AM
We're sitting in a big pile of cow fertilizer
Hmm, this explains the smell after that NJ loss. ;)

I know Dallas is tough, but they did get a pretty favorable situation to play them both times, and then got 2 days off before the sub-500 NJ game.

Still waiting on the hay to start getting made.

JayRedd
01-22-2007, 04:25 PM
Bumping this as we move forward with our new roster.

Losing 4 straight really doesn't help, especially while we're trying to integrate all the new guys during a stretch where we need to be pounding out Ws.

On a good note, we have 10 of our next 12 leading up to the break at home. Four of the opponents are pretty tough (Chicago, Detroit, LAL and Denver). Two are wildcards (Miami, Golden State). And six are VERY winnable (Toronto, Boston, Memphis [twice], Seattle, Clips).

Jan 22 - CHICAGO
Jan 24 - MIAMI
Jan 27 - TORONTO
Jan 28 - @ Detroit
Jan 30 - BOSTON
----------------
Feb 2 - LA LAKERS
Feb 3 - @ Memphis
Feb 5 - Golden State
Feb 7 - Seattle
Feb 9 - Denver
Feb 11 - LA CLIPPERS
Feb 14 - MEMPHIS

We really need to get out of this at around 29 - 23. Something like 27 - 25 wouldn't be disastrous, but we really do need to get a little cushion here before heading into a brutal, brutal March.

Feb 27 - PHOENIX
Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
Mar 7 - @ Utah
Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
Mar 17 - ATLANTA
Mar 20 - @ Houston
Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
Mar 23 - MIAMI
Mar 25 - CHICAGO
Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
Mar 28 - @ New Jersey
Mar 30 - @ Orlando

<table class="yspwhitebg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="ysprow2"><td height="18">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Naptown_Seth
01-26-2007, 12:31 PM
Home 12-7
Road 10-13

Projects to
Home 26-15
Road 18-23
Total 44-38

Nothing has changed on the Home/Road projection, despite that NYK loss.

How about West vs East
East 17-12
West 5-8

Projects to
East 30-22
West 11-19 or 12-18
Total 41-41

FEB features every remaining HOME game vs a West team except for the Spurs game to start April. After FEB it's all back on the road vs some really tough West teams, so as said in prior weeks here, now's the time to get something done. March is trips to Utah, PHX, HOU, LAC, MIN and SA.

@ SAC actually counts as one of the few "easy" games in March, just to put it in perspective. March is just insanely brutal. So no complaining that things "suddenly" fell apart if they do well in FEB and tumble in March...by the schedule they should and the difference on paper should be really dramatic.

We can only hope that the easy phase with lots of home games will help get them in synch just in time for the trial by fire. One thing seems certain, they won't back their way into the playoffs this year. They will have to earn their way into contention in March.


"If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances."

Add the 1-1 already and you have me currently expecting a 9-4 or 8-5 JAN, which I guess means that I expect to be pumped about their chances.
5-5, with TOR, BOS and @DET still to go. It will take another big win in Detroit to reach just the 8-5 mark, partly due to that darn NYK loss, and a little to the NJ game letdown.



I don't know. Looking at the last month and what lies ahead, I'm a bit concerned. They must win those home games vs TOR and BOS IMO.

JayRedd
01-26-2007, 01:28 PM
After FEB it's all back on the road vs some really tough West teams, so as said in prior weeks here, now's the time to get something done. March is trips to Utah, PHX, HOU, LAC, MIN and SA.

@ SAC actually counts as one of the few "easy" games in March, just to put it in perspective. March is just insanely brutal.

If we go 7-9 in March, I will be extremely happy.

Aside from Philly and Atlanta at home, there's probably not a single other game on the schedule where we will be the favorite in Vegas.

March is simply ridiculous. I'm half-expecting Stern to add another couple of games for us against the Dream Team and the '86 Celtics just for fun.

Naptown_Seth
01-27-2007, 04:55 AM
If we go 7-9 in March, I will be extremely happy.

Aside from Philly and Atlanta at home, there's probably not a single other game on the schedule where we will be the favorite in Vegas.

March is simply ridiculous. I'm half-expecting Stern to add another couple of games for us against the Dream Team and the '86 Celtics just for fun.
Am I laughing or crying at this? :)

They need to rip up FEB so bad it hurts. They are either going to blow us away with impressive wins in Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Cleveland and/or Houston, or they are going to watch their record plummet from March 1 to April 6th (SA and DET come to Indy just for good measure to start April).

My guess at March
Wins
Phi, Atl, Wsh (maybe), Chi (feel good about that one), Miami (depends on Shaq and their whole situation), @SAC, one of the CLE games (here or there), @NJ (maybe)

Losses
@PHX, @LAC (could get this one perhaps), @UTH, @CLE (or the home version later), @MIN, @HOU, @SA, @ORL


So 8-8 MAX at this point. For every surprise win I'd expect a surprise loss, and honestly I consider most of the "maybe wins" to be weaker chances for wins than for losses. 5-11 isn't insane to consider.

Add in the PHX game here to end FEB and those first 2 April games and they could be looking at 6-13, or a 7 game drop in the over/under .500 number.

That's why FEB is so critical. Get to 10-11 games over to ride out the tough stretch. 10-3 from now till PHX in Indy gets them 9 over. 10-11 over is nearly out of reach.

Could be looking realistically at 38-36 going into the final 8 games, 5 of which are on the road, but only 3-4 are against possible playoff teams.

quiller
01-28-2007, 05:37 PM
Yes. I am worried a little bit also about the march stretch. But I am just hoping that this team gets playing well enough that it just wills its way to a few wins to prevent any long prolonged loosing stretch.. and win half the games played in march..

But the thing about March also is the back to back as brought up in another thread...

@Utah, @ clev home Was, @ SA are all on second nights of back to back those are very very difficult games with the style of play of Utah, Cleve and Was all mostly up tempo hard to bring the intensity needed on back to back nights. Then SA... one of the top teams period.... and I haven't even mentioned our other two back to back final games in march @ clips after playing Pho and @ NJ after home game with Clev..... not easy win's either....

this team just can not loose games in march they should win... if its a close game they have to find a way to win it not loose it.... and no let down against a "weaker" team.

Frank Slade
01-30-2007, 10:13 PM
Well Det, Chi, and Cle all tied for first in the Division
Pacers just two games back.

Naptown_Seth
02-01-2007, 01:10 PM
On the home/road thing, right now only 2 NBA teams are better on the road than at home, Detroit and Denver. And neither is very good at home by NBA standards.

Detroit is only 12-9 at home, which puts them close to the company of teams like Seattle, NJ, and NOK. On the road they are 14-9 which doesn't sound incredible but relative to the league is very good (4th, though 1-3 are clearly better records).

Denver is bordering on poor at home, going .500, that's getting into Portland, NY, ATL territory. But their 12-11 road record is again fairly decent. Of course just a 2-3 game home win streak flips their home record in front of the road one, so it could quickly be only DET as the team better suited for the road.


The main point in this other than curiousity is that this H vs R thing isn't a BS spin to make us feel better or worse about the schedule. It's almost always a big impact on the outcomes.

IMO a 4-6th seed should expect to win the next 10 games on the schedule before PHX comes to town at the end of the month. Time to raise out expectations way up.

Frank Slade
02-02-2007, 09:21 AM
And boy talk about an opportunity, In the next 11 games Indiana has
9 at home! While Chicago's schedule is finally catching up to them, they play 8 out of the next 11 on the road. :-o

The best opportunity of the season to make a strong push , and move up in the division.

Naptown_Seth
02-03-2007, 05:39 PM
1 down, 9 to go (Gasol's return does make #2 a lot tougher)

Naptown_Seth
02-18-2007, 03:27 PM
Okay, at the break and most of the way through the easy run of games. For some reason I had been leaving out the Boston game and saying 10 rather than 11. Anyway, so far it's definitely below my expectations considering the matchups.

W Bos
W LAL
W @Mem
L GS
L Sea
L Den
W LAC
W Mem
Mil
@Tor
Sac

5-3 with 3 to go. They need to pick up bonus wins on that West trip or at least vs PHX at home to make up for the couple of duds on the homestand. They certainly haven't given us much reason to expect them to pull something like that off.

Here's where the home-road has them projected now.
Home 17-10
Road 11-14

Projects to
Home 26-15
Road 18-23
44-38 overall

They now have MORE ROAD GAMES left than home games. Of those 16 road games, 7 are out west. 8 are vs teams at .500 or better, 9 are vs PLAYOFF teams (as of now) and 2 others are teams on the bordeline of the playoffs, LAC 1/2 behind MIN and the Nets still lingering 4 games under .500 and still within striking distance of taking Indy out of the postseason.

The current projection has them going 7-9 on the road to finish out, but that's due to easier road games early on in the schedule. 5-11 might be more realistic to hope for on the road.

If that happens then you are talking 42-40 instead.

Time to start closely watching the Nets and hoping they don't put a 7-3 run together anytime soon.


The Sunshiner half in me is hopeful that with some big road wins they'll fix their situation and make me a believer. A win in SA or UTH would carry a ton of weight. But the realistic side of me says "GFL".

I hope we are talking playoff seeding at the PD party rather than lottery seeding, especially if it's spot 11-14 in the draft. :(

Naptown_Seth
02-24-2007, 04:20 AM
The Sunshiner half in me is hopeful that with some big road wins they'll fix their situation and make me a believer. A win in SA or UTH would carry a ton of weight. But the realistic side of me says "GFL".
Well the TOR outcome didn't kill off that GFL attitude, that's for sure. It was exactly what I feared seeing, a reality check regarding playing winning teams on the road.

More good news, copied from my post in the Quis/Jack thread.

While at home in this stretch (starting vs NY) they've faced 8 teams under .500 in Conseco.

So what you say? So this. They only face SIX teams under .500 at home the rest of the freaking season. That matches what they just faced in their last 6 games, except that Denver is actually at .500 right now. To get to six technically you have to go back to the BOS game to make it 6 losers at home in nine games.


The phrase "uh-oh" comes to mind. There are a lot more games like @TOR on the way than ones hosting MIL or MEM. IMO the Pacers will be at or below .500 within the next 10 games.


However I found that with my lowered expectations I was able to really enjoy the TOR game. There were lots of things about the team I did like and I didn't really feel bothered by the loss because I've felt that TOR was better than Indy for at least the last couple of weeks.

JayRedd
02-26-2007, 01:43 PM
The phrase "uh-oh" comes to mind.

Especially when you see that going on the road to play the team that blew us out at home last night is the third easiest game of the next month (after home games with Philly and ATL).

Yall ready for this gauntlet? Six of these are back-to-backs.

Feb 27 - PHOENIX
Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
Mar 3 - @ LAC
Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
Mar 7 - @ Utah
Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
Mar 17 - ATLANTA
Mar 20 - @ Houston
Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
Mar 23 - MIAMI
Mar 25 - CHICAGO
Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
Mar 28 - @ New Jersey
Mar 30 - @ Orlando

Naptown_Seth
02-26-2007, 02:46 PM
This is why I was asking about their draft pick protection. Seriously.

Wade might be their only salvation.

I'll guess 5-12 to be optimistic. That would put them at 34-38.

Now the Knicks are 7 under, but they also have a definitely easier schedule coming up. Not cake, but enough nice games mixed in to go .500 or better. So they could be pushing Indy down the stretch.

The Nets are only 3 under and about to pass the Pacers through this stretch.

Miami is tough to know. They lose Wade but then beat CLE without him. They have an interesting homestand of 6 games against a bunch of strong teams, that could play big on where the Pacers stand in 3 weeks.

ORL is in free fall and just as bad off as Indy. They look like benficiaries of an easier front-end schedule to me, the opposite of TOR. They have the Spurs win at home, but they just have so many more tough games and a lot of those on the road. I have to count them out right now.


So the 8th seed looks to be a race between NY and IND at this point. Both of which will be ushered out in a hurry by DET.

The real bad news is that it's very possible that the Knicks could beat out Indy for the 8th seed (ugh) and that the Pacers could fall behind GS, Minny, LAC, etc and yet miss a top 10 pick when ORL loses their way into the 10th spot vacated by those other teams.

I don't see any of the other 9 worst teams catching the Pacers at all.



Again this is just on paper I realize. But you'll excuse me if I get my umbrella out because I see storm clouds on the horizon. I don't think this is doom and gloom, it's not a huge stretch to expect losses to teams like CHI, UTH, WSH or HOU. The betting lines sure aren't going to have the Pacers as faves very often the next month or so.


Unlike some PD posters, I won't get off the wagon, even if they end up with the 11th worst record, no playoffs and no draft pick. Oh well, at least they have youth that is developing. There's always a little sunshine to be found.

And if they surprise me with some huge wins, it will be that much sweeter.

Unclebuck
02-26-2007, 03:49 PM
As I scan the the March schedule I see the Pacers going 6-10.

I don't see how the Pacers will possibly win at Phoenix, Utah, Houston, San Antonio. Pacers could play very well in those games and still lose. So that is 4 losses right there. And then if they go 6-6 in the other 12 games that would give the pacers a 6-10 record.

So at the end of March we'll have a 35-36 record.

Of course if you look at March - you could make a case that the Pacers could go 2-14 with there only wins at home after two days off before playing the Sixers and an improving Hawks team.

Naptown_Seth
02-27-2007, 02:49 AM
Buck, here's how I'm looking at it

Losses
Feb 27 - PHOENIX
Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
Mar 7 - @ Utah
Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
Mar 20 - @ Houston
Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
Mar 25 - CHICAGO
Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
Mar 28 - @ New Jersey

Wins
Mar 3 - @ LAC
Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
Mar 17 - ATLANTA
Mar 23 - MIAMI
Mar 30 - @ Orlando


Okay, CHI and CLE are here and the Pacers have beat them, but it seems to me that both are on the upswing while the Pacers are looking worse. Maybe you win one of those, but maybe you lose the MIA game if they have Shaq and aren't hurt without Wade as much as expected.

NJ has played their way into the playoffs and have already worked the Pacers over in NJ.

Loss to SAC is iffy, but so is the win @LAC

That's where my 5-12 came from.


And yet I was doing a little looking at Pacers tix anyway. I honestly don't give a F that they are in trouble and could be in bad shape in a month. I didn't hate Jack, I don't hate Dun, and I don't hate that it's not going as well as I'd hoped.

I want them to stay positive, so I hold myself to the same expectations. Just play the game in front of you the best you can and will see how it goes.

Naptown_Seth
03-09-2007, 09:58 AM
Well I had them down as losing all but 1 of the 2 games vs SAC and LAC, so not that shocked at this point. Not sure why this caught some people off-guard.

So far the following is still on-target


I'll guess 5-12 to be optimistic. That would put them at 34-38.

Now the Knicks are 7 under, but they also have a definitely easier schedule coming up. Not cake, but enough nice games mixed in to go .500 or better. So they could be pushing Indy down the stretch.

The Nets are only 3 under and about to pass the Pacers through this stretch.

Miami is tough to know. They lose Wade but then beat CLE without him. They have an interesting homestand of 6 games against a bunch of strong teams, that could play big on where the Pacers stand in 3 weeks.

ORL is in free fall and just as bad off as Indy. They look like benficiaries of an easier front-end schedule to me, the opposite of TOR. They have the Spurs win at home, but they just have so many more tough games and a lot of those on the road. I have to count them out right now.
MIA now in front of Indy.

NJ and NY are on the Pacers heels. Pacers could go 2-3 in their next 5. That would put them at 31-34.

Next 5 for MIA, NY and NJ (I'm considering ORL officially done right now):

MIA (31-29) coming off home wins over DET and CHI btw
MIN, WSH, UTH, @NJ, SAC - I'd say 3-2 at least, putting more distance on the Pacers.

NY (28-34)
@WSH, @TOR, OKC, TOR, DAL - so at best 2-3 themselves and still trailing Indy

NJ (28-33)
@HOU, @SA, @MEM, @OKC, MIA - I think 1-4 with OKC being a 2nd night of a back to back road trip. Pacers look to be safe from NJ for the time being.


Looking ahead I think 39 wins might be enough to stay in the playoffs after all.

NY is 11-10 since the midpoint, carry that out and they finish at 38 wins, maybe 39. NJ is actually 8-12 since the 41 game point and are looking at 36-37 wins projected, and their 12 road game schedule full of playoff teams does nothing to dispel that expectation.

So I guess Indy might be safe after all baring a mega-tank. Here are the 10 easiest games left for them (which would put them at 39 wins and probably in the playoffs):

BOS
ATL
PHI (but without JO?)
NJ

@PHI
@MIL
@ATL
@NJ
@ORL
@CHA

Here's the one troublesome thing. Add in the @Minny game and that gives you ALL the reamaining games vs teams under .500, home or road). So 39 wins is reasonable, but not certain.

It could still come down to the 2 games vs NJ. Might put NJ at 38 wins and leave Indy at 37, something like that. :eek:


BTW, 38-44 is a .463 win PCT. There are 15 teams below that WIN PCT right now, including NJ. Drop the Pacers to 36 wins (.439) and you have 8 teams below that level. That's the difference between losing just a few more games.

As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.

indyman37
03-09-2007, 12:25 PM
I glanced at the schedule for March through April...I think if the teams keeps playing at this level we could go on a 21 game losing streak. But that may be me dreaming of the draft again.

Naptown_Seth
03-19-2007, 09:22 PM
As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.
Still about the same 10 days later.

Another set of very tough opponents on deck. @HOU looks rough and the next night they are in SA for what seems to be certain disaster. But after that they only play one more road game vs a winning team (MIA).

In the meantime they come home for 3 games with a day of rest between each one. While the opponents are tough, it could be a chance to steal an unexpected win. Unfortunately each of those teams is coming in with their own day of rest, and in fact Chicago has several days off between a game in Chi-town and coming down to Indy.

Another disgusting break against Indy, they head out of this 3 game homestand to visit New Jersey on a 2nd night of a back to back. Meanwhile the Nets have 3 days off waiting on the Pacers' visit. Hardly seems fair.



They need to rip up FEB so bad it hurts. They are either going to blow us away with impressive wins in Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Cleveland and/or Houston, or they are going to watch their record plummet from March 1 to April 6th (SA and DET come to Indy just for good measure to start April).

BlueNGold
03-19-2007, 09:47 PM
BTW, 38-44 is a .463 win PCT. There are 15 teams below that WIN PCT right now, including NJ. Drop the Pacers to 36 wins (.439) and you have 8 teams below that level. That's the difference between losing just a few more games.

As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.

I seriously doubt this team is going to increase its winning percentage. Beating the Hawks at Conseco without Joe Johnson and on the heels of an 11 game losing streak is fools gold. It was about time.

The next 5 teams are legit championship contenders fighting for playoff position. This is not November. If we win 1 of those with JO and Quis lame we will be fortunate.

Then we face Jersey at their house which just got Richard Jefferson back. Then Orlando at Orlando. Orlando will see us an opportunity for sure. We might pick up another win.

Then we have Detroit and San Antonio. Two more losses. Then the schedule lightens up, but we play 5 out of 8 on the road...with 3 back to backs. These teams will try to play spoiler and will not lay down. I say we win 3 or 4 of those.

OK, at most 6 more wins. That makes it 36 wins. A very good shot at a top 10 pick.

Naptown_Seth
03-20-2007, 08:43 AM
I seriously doubt this team is going to increase its winning percentage. Beating the Hawks at Conseco without Joe Johnson and on the heels of an 11 game losing streak is fools gold. It was about time.

The next 5 teams are legit championship contenders fighting for playoff position. This is not November. If we win 1 of those with JO and Quis lame we will be fortunate.

Then we face Jersey at their house which just got Richard Jefferson back. Then Orlando at Orlando. Orlando will see us an opportunity for sure. We might pick up another win.

Then we have Detroit and San Antonio. Two more losses. Then the schedule lightens up, but we play 5 out of 8 on the road...with 3 back to backs. These teams will try to play spoiler and will not lay down. I say we win 3 or 4 of those.

OK, at most 6 more wins. That makes it 36 wins. A very good shot at a top 10 pick.
Check the date on the post you quoted. That was from a couple of weeks ago.

Even I said and then repeated in my most recent post to bump the ongoing thread that if they didn't pull off some big wins vs teams like PHX or SA that

they are going to watch their record plummet from March 1 to April 6th


That makes it 36 wins. A very good shot at a top 10 pick.
More than 10 teams are going to end up with 46 losses. As I also repeated in my most recent post, this team is aimed squarely at no playoffs/no pick area. You keep hoping for a tank but the fact is that the playoffs are even more in range than a top 10 pick (not that the playoff situation looks good).

speakout4
03-20-2007, 05:51 PM
More than 10 teams are going to end up with 46 losses. As I also repeated in my most recent post, this team is aimed squarely at no playoffs/no pick area. You keep hoping for a tank but the fact is that the playoffs are even more in range than a top 10 pick (not that the playoff situation looks good).

I agree completely. We should have started the tank earlier. Very unlikely we will keep the pick or make the playoffs and in the event we do make the playofffs it will look bad.

JayRedd
03-20-2007, 05:57 PM
Check the date on the post you quoted. That was from a couple of weeks ago.

Even I said and then repeated in my most recent post to bump the ongoing thread that if they didn't pull off some big wins vs teams like PHX or SA that



More than 10 teams are going to end up with 46 losses. As I also repeated in my most recent post, this team is aimed squarely at no playoffs/no pick area. You keep hoping for a tank but the fact is that the playoffs are even more in range than a top 10 pick (not that the playoff situation looks good).

I've always heard a bunch of coaches I respect say that the best thing to look at is losses. You can't make those up.

So here's the bottom 20 of the league based on current number of losses:

1. Grizz - 50
2. Celtics - 47
3. Bobcats - 43
4. Bucks - 41
5. Hawks - 41
6. Sixers - 41
7. Blazers - 40
8. Sonics - 40
9. Kings - 38
10. TWolves - 37
11. Hornets - 37
12. Magic - 37
13. Clippers - 36
14. Knicks - 36
15. Nets - 36
16. Warriors - 36
17. Pacers - 35
18. Lakers - 32
19. Nuggets - 31
20. Raptors - 31

(no one else has more than 30)

I haven't checked all their schedules, but I just can't see us "making up" five losses to teams as bad as the Blazers and Sonics.

So that would mean, "at best" we could only hope to sneak in at 9th or 10th in order to keep the pick. It's definitely possible, but with all the other terrible teams in between, there are 9 squads "fighting" for those last two Top 10 slots, with us currently the furthest away.

We're bad, but I don't think we're that bad.

If anything, we should all be hoping for a 7 Seed to draw a pretty flawed Cavs squad in the 1st Round. This might actually be one year where I'd actually consider our signature 2nd Round KO a moral victory.

Los Angeles
03-20-2007, 07:40 PM
Keep the Faith, JayRedd.

:cheers:

BlueNGold
03-20-2007, 08:08 PM
I've always heard a bunch of coaches I respect say that the best thing to look at is losses. You can't make those up.

So here's the bottom 20 of the league based on current number of losses:

1. Grizz - 50
2. Celtics - 47
3. Bobcats - 43
4. Bucks - 41
5. Hawks - 41
6. Sixers - 41
7. Blazers - 40
8. Sonics - 40
9. Kings - 38
10. TWolves - 37
11. Hornets - 37
12. Magic - 37
13. Clippers - 36
14. Knicks - 36
15. Nets - 36
16. Warriors - 36
17. Pacers - 35
18. Lakers - 32
19. Nuggets - 31
20. Raptors - 31

(no one else has more than 30)

I haven't checked all their schedules, but I just can't see us "making up" five losses to teams as bad as the Blazers and Sonics.

So that would mean, "at best" we could only hope to sneak in at 9th or 10th in order to keep the pick. It's definitely possible, but with all the other terrible teams in between, there are 9 squads "fighting" for those last two Top 10 slots, with us currently the furthest away.

We're bad, but I don't think we're that bad.

If anything, we should all be hoping for a 7 Seed to draw a pretty flawed Cavs squad in the 1st Round. This might actually be one year where I'd actually consider our signature 2nd Round KO a moral victory.

Here are the teams we are competing with:

9. Kings - 38 0-2 against them (most of the wins came early here)
10. TWolves - 37 0-2
11. Hornets - 37 1-1
12. Magic - 37 2-1
13. Clippers - 36 1-1
14. Knicks - 36 2-1
15. Nets - 36 0-2
16. Warriors - 36 1-1

There is only a 3 game "deficit", not 5, that we have to make up...maybe 2 if we lose to the Magic. The odds are very high that a number 10 pick would not get bumped....so I am growing less concerned about a higher pick. I would also consider some dogs like Philly might rise up....where the higher teams are less likely to gap down. Our biggest problems could turn out to be MN and Orlando.

Get prepared for this gap to close by the end of this month.

Naptown_Seth
03-23-2007, 12:28 PM
I agree completely. We should have started the tank earlier. Very unlikely we will keep the pick or make the playoffs and in the event we do make the playofffs it will look bad.
I'm still in the "you never know till you try" mode.

Get in their, prove something to yourself and the fanbase, and at the very least give it a run similar to last year. Then give Atlanta a mid-first pick and keep your potentially higher/better pick in the next 2-3 years.

I sure as heck would rather ATL took a 16th pick this year than a #1 in 3 years. That is what you are toying with when you say "tank now".

BTW, look closely at your list BnG. The Pacers only need to TIE Orlando and NY to lose the 10th pick. All of the other teams can win out (not technically possible since they play each other) and the Pacers would lose the pick and miss the playoffs. The point is that the Pacers are up against MANY other teams, not just 1 or 2. Some of those teams have tough roads ahead and are slumping themselves.


Looking ahead I think 39 wins might be enough to stay in the playoffs after all.
Looking more like 36-37 wins will do the trick now.

BlueNGold
03-23-2007, 02:48 PM
Tonight is an important night.

Orlando or NJ is going to win.
Minnesota plays lowly Seattle.
Philly plays lowly Charlotte.
We play the Heat.

On paper it should be a good night.

Naptown_Seth
03-26-2007, 02:28 PM
We are getting near the end of this nasty stretch finally, just a few more really tough spots and then it goes back to normal.

Looking back at my own expectations.

Losses
Feb 27 - PHOENIX
Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
Mar 7 - @ Utah
Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
Mar 20 - @ Houston
Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
Mar 25 - CHICAGO
Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
Mar 28 - @ New Jersey

Wins
Mar 3 - @ LAC
Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
Mar 17 - ATLANTA
Mar 23 - MIAMI
Mar 30 - @ Orlando
A little worse than expected, but the Chicago, Minny, Sacto and Philly games were all winnable, the CLE and NJ games remain winnable as well. I guess this is why I'm not too freaked out. They took their hit, seem to have recovered and really haven't done much worse lately than I assumed they would.