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View Full Version : The over/under on Pacers season win total: 44.5



Slick Pinkham
09-19-2006, 09:01 AM
I'm not endorsing this and don't gamble myself, but I saw it linked elsewhere and thought it was interesting:

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/guestcontestLines.asp?redirected=yes&redirected=yes&ContestType=NBA%20Futures&contestType2=010*2007%20NBA%20Regular%20Season%20W ins

Unclebuck
09-19-2006, 09:31 AM
That is about right

ChicagoJ
09-19-2006, 10:12 AM
Interesting. I would've thought it was closer to 41.

_PD_
09-19-2006, 10:54 AM
Very interesting.

Nets, Bulls, Cavs all clustered in a second tier behind Heat and pisstons. Then another dropoff to us, then another dropoff to 7th and 8th.

There is a hard line between playoff teams and non playoff teams.
Wiz @ 39.5, then they have Magic, 76ers, Celtics all 3-4 games out of the playoffs. Since we usually have 2-4 teams vying for the last spot or two @ around 40-42 wins, there will be some teams that will outperform their over/under by 4-5 games to be vying for those spots. We just don't know who they are, so their O/U is in the mid-30s.

Isaac
09-19-2006, 10:56 AM
I'll take the over. We're going to win 48 games.

Moses
09-19-2006, 11:07 AM
I'd say we are going to win anywhere from 50+ games assuming we have a healthy roster for once. We have a pretty good chance to win the East this year. Another year older for Shaq and the Pistons wont be as dominant as they have been without Ben Wallace. Even if we don't make it this year, It looks like the window of opportunity is opening for any team to emerge this year as the Easts finals contender.

pizza guy
09-19-2006, 11:14 AM
I like the over here. I think we can get 50+ this year.

Unclebuck
09-19-2006, 11:24 AM
OK, who is it that lives in Las Vegas, is it Anthem, I know a regular poster does. Maybe we should put our money where our mouths are. We could split up into over/under pool our money and place a bet, and then split the winnings.

Isaac
09-19-2006, 11:29 AM
OK, who is it that lives in Las Vegas, is it Anthem, I know a regular poster does. Maybe we should put our money where our mouths are. We could split up into over/under pool our money and place a bet, and then split the winnings.

I'm going to Vegas, I'm definitley going to place a bet for every team.

Robertmto
09-19-2006, 12:21 PM
can i get SOMEONE, ANYONE to post an over bet for me with the Wizards. 39.5?? WTF

Unclebuck
09-19-2006, 12:37 PM
I'm going to Vegas, I'm definitley going to place a bet for every team.

I've never been to Vegas, but how does the over/under work. I know you pick either over or under and depending on the team's record you know if you won or lost. But are there odds.

bulldog
09-19-2006, 02:39 PM
I've never been to Vegas, but how does the over/under work. I know you pick either over or under and depending on the team's record you know if you won or lost. But are there odds.

Exactly, you pick either over or under. There are no odds because the numbers are selected so that (theoretically) 50% of the bettors pick each (ie the odds are 50-50). That's why the numbers are interesting even to those who don't bet, they're supposedly right smack dab in the middle of where bookies think the teams will finish.

DisplacedKnick
09-19-2006, 02:51 PM
I'd even take the over on the Knicks. I mean, we suck - but Isiah will value wins over correct play. I think 35 is very possible for us. :arrgh:

Frank Slade
09-19-2006, 03:41 PM
Exactly, you pick either over or under. There are no odds because the numbers are selected so that (theoretically) 50% of the bettors pick each (ie the odds are 50-50). That's why the numbers are interesting even to those who don't bet, they're supposedly right smack dab in the middle of where bookies think the teams will finish.

:ding:

Exactly , there is an art to setting the lines.

The trick is to get both sides to think, wow they really missed the mark on this one. If they set the lines to far on one side or the other, then you could lose half your customers.

I do think for the most part Vegas is on top of it, research wise, especially the more mainstream sports.

grace
09-19-2006, 04:59 PM
Under.

Chest Rockwell
09-19-2006, 05:02 PM
The over/under futures bets aren't very profitable because
1) The casino has your money all season earning interest for them.
2) There are odds, usually -110, meaning to win $100, you have to bet $110.

Since there are tons of Southern California Yahoos coming to Las Vegas all the time, the Lakers number will be inflated, since Laker fans will bet the over regardless of how high the total is. So an "under" bet on LA is usually a good call.

If you want a harmless way to place bets just for fun, try http://www.wiseguys.com. I think you could even set up a PD league that would track everyone's picks on the site.

I'm from Vegas, but don't post on here regularly enough that anyone would know that.

Pacers#1Fan
09-19-2006, 06:01 PM
I'd say we're going to be over. I'd say between 50-53 wins this season.

Hicks
09-19-2006, 06:32 PM
44.5 is a pretty good selection by them. I'm going with 0.5-5.5 more wins than that.

BoomBaby31
09-19-2006, 08:04 PM
OK, who is it that lives in Las Vegas, is it Anthem, I know a regular poster does. Maybe we should put our money where our mouths are. We could split up into over/under pool our money and place a bet, and then split the winnings.


I live in Vegas.

BoomBaby31
09-19-2006, 08:13 PM
I've never been to Vegas, but how does the over/under work. I know you pick either over or under and depending on the team's record you know if you won or lost. But are there odds.


All straight bets are 10-11 meaning every 11 dollars you bet you get 10 in return. If there is a .5 that is basically so there is no ties.

Now for regular games. When you see a plus infront of a moneyline example +140 Pacers this means you opt out of the point spread and think they are going to all out win the game so every 100 dollars you bet you get 140 back. If it was -140 it would be every 140 dollars you bet you get 100 dollars.

If you ever want to make a bet I'll give you some contact info and I'll place it for you, it will save you the hassle of trying to get it from the online bookies. If you do bet online the ONLY online sports service I've ever got my winnings from is Sportsinteraction.com. About 10 other services gave me a huge run a round and just refunded my money.

Jermaniac
09-19-2006, 08:58 PM
We are going to win at least 49

Trader Joe
09-19-2006, 09:19 PM
Over if healthy, slightly under if hurt.

Naptown_Seth
09-20-2006, 01:00 AM
Exactly, you pick either over or under. There are no odds because the numbers are selected so that (theoretically) 50% of the bettors pick each (ie the odds are 50-50). That's why the numbers are interesting even to those who don't bet, they're supposedly right smack dab in the middle of where bookies think the teams will finish.
Well, actually where the bookies think that the BETTERS think the teams will finish.

Like Frank says, there is an art to reading the betters, not the sport itself, so that both sides feel good about betting against each other. The casino wants it to be equal money on both (all in the case of horses, etc) sides so they can just take their cut and walk. People mistakingly think they are betting against the house in these cases, but really they are betting against what other people think.

The house wins anyway, they don't want to be in the business of gambling against you. That would mean they might lose.

You want a fair payout? Play the free odds bet on craps. :)

Now if you feel like you can pick the win over/under at a 60% correct rate then you can make 15% on your money in 7 months. That's pretty decent. But drop to 55% correct and you only made 5% and a safe CD starts looking really good. 50% and you end up with 95% of what you started with, not so good.


BTW, I think the over is the better bet here. I feel fairly good about 48-50 wins, but I'll bet that line does draw equal action. Fans away from Indy only see the record from the last 2 years, Ron gone, etc.

ABADays
09-20-2006, 10:41 AM
I think over but barely.

BillS
09-20-2006, 10:50 AM
I think over but barely.

I'm good with that. 45 or 46 wins seems reasonable, especially if we allow ourselves to lose some games early while getting in synch against competition.

At this point, I'm all about winning enough games to comfortably get into the playoffs and ending the season on a long win streak.

Winning more is fine, but the long win streak at the end is imperative.

JayRedd
09-20-2006, 11:51 AM
I'm from Vegas, but don't post on here regularly enough that anyone would know that.

Fantastic name.

I would pencil us in for 46-36.....But this team has too many unknowns for me to put any $ up.

The Knicks at 30.5 is pretty low. I'd bet that over.

Unclebuck
09-20-2006, 12:03 PM
If someone stuck a gun to my head and said pick the over/under and your life depends on the outcome. I'd pick the under.

Now if I were going to bet $50 dollars, I'd pick the over because it would be more fun, but if my life depends on being right, I'd pick the under.

ChicagoJ
09-20-2006, 04:26 PM
If someone stuck a gun to my head and said pick the over/under and your life depends on the outcome. I'd pick the under.

Now if I were going to bet $50 dollars, I'd pick the over because it would be more fun, but if my life depends on being right, I'd pick the under.

The darkside is about to claim another victim.

:hypnotize

Since86
09-20-2006, 04:36 PM
The darkside is about to claim another victem.

:hypnotize

No results found for victem.
Did you mean victim?

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=victem

ChicagoJ
09-20-2006, 04:38 PM
Live by the MS Word autocorrect feature, die by the MS Word autocorrect feature.

:blush:

Since86
09-20-2006, 05:00 PM
Atleast you didn't say "vitcim" sounded silly to use.

(giggle, giggle, snort)

Unclebuck
09-20-2006, 06:24 PM
The darkside is about to claim another victim.

:hypnotize



There are just too many question marks in the starting backcourt. You know, now that I think about it, those aren't question marks at all, they are more like exclamation marks 

cariocapacer
09-20-2006, 07:21 PM
If we're not going to win more than 44 games we should have dismantled the team and gone for cap space.

Fireball Kid
09-21-2006, 03:42 PM
44-47 wins