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Rule #1

Pacers Digest is intended to be a place to discuss basketball without having to deal with the kinds of behaviors or attitudes that distract people from sticking with the discussion of the topics at hand. These unwanted distractions can come in many forms, and admittedly it can sometimes be tricky to pin down each and every kind that can rear its ugly head, but we feel that the following examples and explanations cover at least a good portion of that ground and should at least give people a pretty good idea of the kinds of things we actively discourage:

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What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

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  • #1

    What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

    Basketball junkie that I am, Im up late watching the U.S. struggle vs Puerto Rico. I'm trying to enjoy the game, but my thoughts keep going to the Pacers and the Harrington situation. I've got some different thoughts than any I've seen expressed in any other threads, so with some reluctance Im starting another one of my own. I may be a little long winded, because Im going to hit on a few different aspects of this entire situation.

    1. First of all, I now suspect that DW's offer to Harrington was a 3 or 4 yr deal all along. I suspect that all the leaks on the financial aspects of the deal did not come from the Pacers obviously, but I also don't believe they came from the Hawks. In my view they came from Harrington's circle, and were made to try and drive the public pressure up on the Pacers to offer the 5th and 6th years.

    2. I think negotiations with the Hawks themselves were solved when they backed off the 3 million in cash they wanted. I still believe Knight and Walsh have a good working relationship, and that most likely us agreeing to also take Edwards of Atlanta's hands sealed the deal from the Hawks perspective. I doubt that there was a problem coming to terms on what draft pick was being offered as was widely speculated by a lot of us. Im still not sure what exactly the parameters of the pick we were giving Atlanta was, I just think it was probably agreed to.

    3. I think 4 yrs, 36 million, given the marketplace, is a fair offer for Harrington. Given that Gooden and Wilcox both signed for less, I think its reasonable that Harrington should be compensated slightly more than them, but not to the degree of the amount that I believe the Harrington camp was wanting us to believe was on the table.

    4. Im 99% sure that the Simon's didnt kill the deal like is being reported out of Atlanta. Again, I am fairly certain and would bet that the Sekou Smith's sources are the Harrington camp. I believe that the Pacers and Hawks finally reached agreement on compensation, but that Harrington and the Pacers couldnt ever agree, no matter the pressure that was applied in the media, to a deal. I think the Pacers gave Harrington time to come to his senses, and that his former agent possibly agreed with taking the shorter deal. (I thought the opposite this morning before the latest news broke out...I thought maybe Al switched agents because of wanting a shorter deal, apparently I was wrong about that).

    What I think happened is that the teams agreed to a deal, but the Pacers and Tellem reached an impasse. Because its smart business and good negotiation tactics, DW/LB delayed for a week by going to the Simon's and giving them the option of doing the 6yr 57 million deal if they wanted, because they couldnt get Al to agree to the more reasonable 4 yr 36 million the Pacers front office had offered in the first place. The Simons said "no, lets stick to our original plan", and Walsh told the Hawks and Harrington the bad news.

    5. I think it's tacky, but also probably smart, of Harrington's negotiating team to leak stuff the way I suspect, so they can get their spin on it. The first article written is often believed as the truth whether it actually is or not. Al comes off looking better if the public believes he'd agreed to a deal before the Pacers cheap ownership reneged and backed out on their word. Im sure privately the TPTB are seething a little about how this is making them look in some people's eyes. This way, Harrington looks like the innocent injured party, when in fact that isnt the case. He just wants more money per year than the Pacers can offer under the rules, and he wants a longer term contract for his own security. All this about wanting to come home and "feel wanted" is just public relations crap. Basically, like most free agents, Harrington is going to sign with the highest bidder, and its likely Arn Tellem has made him promises that he will get him more than 7.6 the first year, and that he will get him a contract near 60 million over 60 yrs. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but Im positive that AL believes it.

    6. The Hawks still hold some important trump cards here. IF IF IF Atlanta truly doesnt want to take back contracts, it will be very difficult for Harrington to find a suitor that will pay him and be a good trade partner with Atlanta. Now, it may be that Atlanta is open to taking back players (but they just didnt want anybody on our roster) with expiring contracts...we don't really know for sure how adamant the Hawks TRULY were about that. But, since we were the only ones I know of with a huge trade exception that high, its still likely in my view that we will be involved in this deal. Here is how we might still benefit from our trade exception, in some form or fashion:

    Step A:Atlanta signs & trades Harrington to a mystery team for a package of players.

    Step B: We use our trade exception to trade for said package of players. (we might have to divide it up into a couple of separate trades, but you get the drift)

    Step C: We probably demand a ransom in some form from the original "mystery team" to serve as the conduit to make this deal happen. Its possible we could come out of this in better shape than we think at this moment.

    7. If we end up being totally out of the Harrington mess and we have our trade exception fully intact, I think its likely we do one of 2 things with it:
    Either use it before the season or before the deadline in 2 or 3 smaller deals, using it to acquire a couple different players......or much much more likely, we will play out the season and keep it in reserve to use next summer in another sign and trade with a 2007 free agent. Remember, we have a year to use it from when Peja signed....Im not sure but I think that was July 15th. There are lots of free agents who are interesting to me next summer, like Mo Peterson and Darko Milicec, for instance, plus many more.

    8. I think its likely we might sign some veteran minimum type guys for our backcourt still, and I wouldnt be surprised if we trade some of our excess players to Charlotte for future 2nd rounders. I think we might see Voshon Leonard, Jimmy Jackson, or Nick Van Exel be signed to a cheap deal as someone who can come off the bench and be a scorer.

    9. I still think there will be a deal with Toronto before the season starts in some form or fashion.

    Alright, I promise the next thread I start won't be Harrington related I hope....I just had to get all of that off my chest, and it was too expansive for any single thread.

    As always, all of that was JMO......
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

    I for one think you wrote a very good post. And that there are a lot that you say really did happen. Of course I am one of the few that wonder if Al would be a good fit or if he would cause much to much problems. Would he be willing to be # 2 or maybe even 3rd. I don't think so. He has to much me. If he goes to the Lakers he will be one unhappy camper. He will be at the best #2. no doubt about it.

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

      i think a lot of your post does make sense

      i'm not sure about the nick van exel/jim jackson portion but the rest of it tends to make sense.

      i too have been of the opinion that the pacers should not do the harrington deal because they should just develop the young talent, because we have a ton of it. save the TE for maybe a deadline deal or next summer. i don't see why waiting would be bad, its a good FA group and would be more beneficial because we'll see where Danny, Hulk, Sarunas, Baston, Powell, Marshall, White, Williams, Green, Hunter stand and what holes we need to fill...

      the 2007 FA group includes
      Kirk Hinrich, CHI
      Andres Nocioni, CHI
      Josh Howard, DAL
      Jerry Stackhouse, DAL
      James Posey, MIA
      Jamaal Maglore, POR
      This is the darkest timeline.

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

        TBird, I just kinda ranted at RATS in a way that parallels your thinking going into this, but I like your solution more than initially came to my mind.

        For it to go on this long with leaks of "done deal", stuff had to be agreed upon. It makes no sense for Indy to agree all this time and then suddenly switch, and not only that but if Indy DID agree all this time to every point then the deal would have been 100% done a month ago.

        Clearly they never did come to total agreement on some points as Al suggested in the Sekou piece. Suggesting that is just a lie and we know that because the deal was NOT DONE last week or 2 weeks ago or 3 weeks ago and so on.


        I like your angle about the years/money for AL, rather than it being a cash to ATL problem, and I wonder if Tellum got Atlanta to back off that with the thinking that the $3m saved would go toward covering a bit of his client's extra years, enough to get Indy to agree to 6 instead of 4.

        Plus the issue with the agent makes more sense if a problem behind the scenes was the contract and not between ATL and Indy.




        One other thing though - Bruno made the comment that this deal was a lot more complicated than fans realized, suggesting a lot more details than just AL, pick, cash, Edwards in my opinion. There was the rumor that the Pacers were trying to get Atlanta to take some salary back even, perhaps to make giving Al the extra years more tolerable to them.


        BTW, its possible that those extra years are where they target resigning Shawne to be a long term SF/PF solution that would be redundent with Al (w/ JO and Danny also here). He has a 4 year deal with the last 2 as team options. So after those 4 years what happens when Indy wants to keep Shawne for big money after just paying Danny too?

        Shawne is not a certainty, but perhaps they feel confident enough to make this a sticking point.

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

          First of all, T-bird, I'm not sure I've properly said, "" yet.

          We're always happy to gain new posters with thoughtful, analytical contributions.

          I just wanted to repeat here what I posted in the "Blame Walsh" thread in response to bulletproof. I think we agree on much of this but I think there are a couple other important pieces of evidence as well. But most importantly, I don't think the Simons rejected a deal that everyone else had previously agreed on. I think the Pacers and Hawks had agreed on a trade that worked under the CBA, and the number of years and amount of increases aren't important - just the first year salary which - by my math - would have been the same under either the four-year or six-year deal. But that the Pacers and Al had never reached agreement.

          Originally posted by Jay@Section204 View Post
          I said somewhere else but I'll repeat/ finish the thought.

          I think the reason Al fired his agent was because the shorter deal for less money has always been the Pacers' offer to Al. I think he thought he could get up to the rumored amounts (which were the maximum amounts he could get for the trade exception) by changing agents.

          I'm not even sure the sticking point all along has been between the Pacers and Hawks, but rather Al and the Pacers.

          Whether Donnie/ Larry believed it was worthwhile to give Al the longer/ bigger deal - I have no idea. But I'll ask you this - can you ever think of a time that the Simons questioned or vetoed something Donnie/ Larry endorsed? The only thing I can think of is the first time the Simons allegedly pursued Larry for a front-office position - the summer Donnie let Bo Hill's contract expire. We've heard that Donnie had to make a case to management that he and Larry Brown were "the way to go." And that proved to be right and from what I understand they've been hands-off since.

          I just can't imagine the Simons overriding Donnie/ Larry here. So I think the Pacers and Al were always miles apart and the Hawks (late edit: or more likely, Al) finally got tired of waiting on them to agree.

          Or has David Simon taken over for Mel and Herb? We've heard he's probably going to be much tighter with the team's payroll whenever he does get involved.

          Like always, I think the negotiations in the media, and some of the stuff that they've reported, are just a smokescreen for something else.
          Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
          Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
          Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
          Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
          And life itself, rushing over me
          Life itself, the wind in black elms,
          Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

            Good thread guys. I agree with lots of the stuff being said and just a quick comment on the TE next summer...I think that while guys from the 03 class will get extensions this fall (Howard, Kaman, Hinrich, etc.). I think guys like Milicic and Mo Pete, who would be good fits, could be available for a good price.

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

              I sure as hell hope we wait until next year the FA crop is soooo good. Kirk Hinrich please.
              *removed* Just keep politics and religion completely out of it, please.

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

                I don't think we can use the TE on next summer's FA class. Or is that the reason for the slight delay in the official announcement of the Peja trade. It expires in a year, right? I think there is some risk that it "expires" during the annual, "you can negotiate, but you can't sign anything" period.
                Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
                Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
                Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
                Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
                And life itself, rushing over me
                Life itself, the wind in black elms,
                Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

                  Originally posted by Jay@Section204 View Post
                  I don't think we can use the TE on next summer's FA class. Or is that the reason for the slight delay in the official announcement of the Peja trade. It expires in a year, right? I think there is some risk that it "expires" during the annual, "you can negotiate, but you can't sign anything" period.
                  I don't think that's a huge issue. We'll just have to make sure we can string something together before that or during the trading deadline.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

                    Originally posted by Jay@Section204 View Post
                    I don't think we can use the TE on next summer's FA class. Or is that the reason for the slight delay in the official announcement of the Peja trade. It expires in a year, right? I think there is some risk that it "expires" during the annual, "you can negotiate, but you can't sign anything" period.

                    No, I think it expires exactly a year from when Peja actually signed his deal, which we all think was the first day free agents were ALLOWED to sign (July 16th I think), but in fact, we don't have any true knowledge on when he actually physically and legally signed his deal....it may have been a week later than that or more as far as we know.

                    Either way, our TE will last at least to the beginning of next years free agent signing period.

                    Thank you for the welcome, by the way.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

                      More likely we can use it to trade for an upcoming free agent a team is fearful of not being able to resign, so that they get the trade exception and the cap benefit. Of course, we risk them pulling a Peja, but I'll take the chance if thats all we can get, and at least we get the option of offering the best contract.

                      For example, the Sonics are totally screwed up, how about Rashard Lewis? He's not at all what we need, but a Lewis for TE + draft pick swap would be a no-brainer (protected pick or 2nd rounder, of course).
                      2010 IKL Fantasy Basketball Champion Baltimore Bulldogs

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

                        So here is one thing I can't seem to reconcile - several people (myself included) had a source close to TPTB saying the deal was done... where we (TPTB) so arrogant to think the 4 year deal was the one that was done?

                        I don't know - but it just seems odd.
                        Heywoode says... work hard man.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

                          Originally posted by Jay@Section204 View Post
                          I don't think we can use the TE on next summer's FA class. Or is that the reason for the slight delay in the official announcement of the Peja trade. It expires in a year, right? I think there is some risk that it "expires" during the annual, "you can negotiate, but you can't sign anything" period.
                          According to Storyteller's Site
                          The TE's that expire next year.
                          • 7,500,000 07/12/07
                          • 1,416,400 07/12/07
                          • 2,608,696 07/24/07

                          Why Not Us ?

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

                            Doug, All I can figure out is that there were agreements in principle... perhaps TBTP didn't know the six-year deal would be such a strong sticking point with ownership at that time.
                            Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
                            Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
                            Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
                            Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
                            And life itself, rushing over me
                            Life itself, the wind in black elms,
                            Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: What may have really happened with Al, and what may happen next:my theory

                              What's the $1.4 and $2.6 from? I'm having a blonde moment.

                              My point is, if the annual moratrioum is beyond 7/12 next summer, the TE is null and void before next season's FA crop.

                              Now, I don't believe for a moment that "storyteller" or anyone else knows the actual expiration date nor the actual dollar amount. Just like I don't really believe the HoopsHype salaries are 100% accurate. They're close, but too many people pretend those numbers are 'confirmed' and 100% legit. And they're not.
                              Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
                              Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
                              Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
                              Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
                              And life itself, rushing over me
                              Life itself, the wind in black elms,
                              Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

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