View Full Version : Offense or Defense

I was trying to look at the last games, and figure out which is the most important factor in the recent losses - poor offensive displays or rather the defense level.

Well naturally both are related, but as far as the numbers tell, the defense is the primary place to look at. Pacers are allowing ~91 ppg, and are scoring ~93 (stats do not include Memphis ;)). I looked at the last 13 games and the trend gives 93 pts as the magic number: each time the opopnents score above it, they win.

I watched again the game against Sacramento (to cheer up), and actually we can find many keys to the game: Granger was great, Peja solid, Tinsley's 4th quarter won the game, but for me - the turning point was 3rd quarter defense by AJ on Mike Bibby. This has stopped the Kings offensive play and eventually decided the game.

Sacramento were having a great offensive 1st quarter with over 30 points. Bibby scored 17 until the half-time making AJ and Tins miserable. But eventually the magic number was not reached, and we were on top.

As our team is ~0.5 team, You must look at the overall season averge (allowed, socered) and then calculate and compare the diavation in the last games. Imho - it's more poor offensive display, but i'm not sure.

Hicks

03-22-2006, 06:38 PM

I want to know our current rank in points per 100 posessions per game, and our current rank points allowed per 100 possessions per game. It weeds out the effects of game pace.

I believe ESPN Insider keeps track of this stat. Lemme check...

Ah-ha!

We currently rank 23rd in the NBA in team ppg per 100 posessions at 101.1.

We currently rank 2nd in the NBA in team ppg allowed per 100 posessions at 99.6.

Fascinating. I fully expected the offense to be that bad, but I did not expect the defense to look so good. Spurs ranked #1 on D at 96.2, by the way. Detroit is 4th at 100.1 and good old Memphis is 3rd at 99.8.

Fascinating.

Unclebuck

03-22-2006, 10:40 PM

Pacers are still a good defensive team. They were horrible against the Grizzlies and not very good against the Celts, but overall they are a very good defensive team and very well coached in this area.

rexnom

03-22-2006, 11:22 PM

I want to know our current rank in points per 100 posessions per game, and our current rank points allowed per 100 possessions per game. It weeds out the effects of game pace.

I believe ESPN Insider keeps track of this stat. Lemme check...

Ah-ha!

We currently rank 23rd in the NBA in team ppg per 100 posessions at 101.1.

We currently rank 2nd in the NBA in team ppg allowed per 100 posessions at 99.6.

Fascinating. I fully expected the offense to be that bad, but I did not expect the defense to look so good. Spurs ranked #1 on D at 96.2, by the way. Detroit is 4th at 100.1 and good old Memphis is 3rd at 99.8.

Fascinating.

Agreed, that is fascinating indeed. Also, what is up with the Spurs? 96.2? That is ridiculous.

One thing I want to interject in this conversation, even if it doesn't mean much, is that we are 0-4 when we fail to score 75 points in a game.

Our defense is still solid, it has lapses but what team doesn't, but I think our offense is just wretched at times.

Our defense is still solid, it has lapses but what team doesn't

The problem is our lapses are for an entire quarter at times. Break downs you expect, but these 30 point bursts for the other team just destroys the Pacers will it seems.

beast23

03-23-2006, 10:15 AM

I want to know our current rank in points per 100 posessions per game, and our current rank points allowed per 100 possessions per game. It weeds out the effects of game pace.

I believe ESPN Insider keeps track of this stat. Lemme check...

Ah-ha!

We currently rank 23rd in the NBA in team ppg per 100 posessions at 101.1.

We currently rank 2nd in the NBA in team ppg allowed per 100 posessions at 99.6.

Fascinating. I fully expected the offense to be that bad, but I did not expect the defense to look so good. Spurs ranked #1 on D at 96.2, by the way. Detroit is 4th at 100.1 and good old Memphis is 3rd at 99.8.

Fascinating.Interesting stats.

Just for grins, would it be possible to post the rankings and points for each team?

OK. So if we consider offense, we can look at contribution per position.

The stats below clearly show what we know - we have a problem in the PG, SG positions.

I got to say though, that the results might of course be misleading due to team style of play. We should consider this too.

http://www.82games.com/0506/0506IND5.HTM

Team Production by Position

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width=630 bgColor=#cccccc border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#33cc33><TD width=80><CENTER>Position</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>FGA</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>eFG%</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>FTA</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>iFG</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Reb</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Ast</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>T/O</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>Blk</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>PF</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Pts</CENTER></TD><TD width=60><CENTER>PER*</CENTER></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>PG</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>15.4 </TD><TD align=right>.484 </TD><TD align=right>3.6 </TD><TD align=right>18% </TD><TD align=right>4.8 </TD><TD align=right>7.9 </TD><TD align=right>3.6 </TD><TD align=right>0.3 </TD><TD align=right>3.6 </TD><TD align=right>17.7 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>15.2 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>SG</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>16.2 </TD><TD align=right>.470 </TD><TD align=right>4.4 </TD><TD align=right>23% </TD><TD align=right>4.3 </TD><TD align=right>4.7 </TD><TD align=right>3.1 </TD><TD align=right>0.5 </TD><TD align=right>3.6 </TD><TD align=right>18.5 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>12.6 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>SF</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>17.3 </TD><TD align=right>.472 </TD><TD align=right>6.1 </TD><TD align=right>29% </TD><TD align=right>7.4 </TD><TD align=right>2.7 </TD><TD align=right>2.9 </TD><TD align=right>0.8 </TD><TD align=right>3.6 </TD><TD align=right>21.2 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>16.3 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>PF</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>13.7 </TD><TD align=right>.507 </TD><TD align=right>5.5 </TD><TD align=right>35% </TD><TD align=right>12.0 </TD><TD align=right>2.5 </TD><TD align=right>2.2 </TD><TD align=right>1.1 </TD><TD align=right>4.8 </TD><TD align=right>18.2 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>17.8 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>C</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>13.9 </TD><TD align=right>.489 </TD><TD align=right>6.8 </TD><TD align=right>50% </TD><TD align=right>13.7 </TD><TD align=right>1.6 </TD><TD align=right>2.8 </TD><TD align=right>2.0 </TD><TD align=right>7.2 </TD><TD align=right>17.9 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>16.3 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Opponent Production by Position

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width=630 bgColor=#cccccc border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#33cc33><TD width=80><CENTER>Position</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>FGA</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>eFG%</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>FTA</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>iFG</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Reb</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Ast</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>T/O</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>Blk</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>PF</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Pts</CENTER></TD><TD width=60><CENTER>PER*</CENTER></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>PG</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>16.2 </TD><TD align=right>.461 </TD><TD align=right>4.7 </TD><TD align=right>26% </TD><TD align=right>4.9 </TD><TD align=right>7.4 </TD><TD align=right>3.1 </TD><TD align=right>0.2 </TD><TD align=right>3.6 </TD><TD align=right>18.6 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>16.2 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>SG</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>16.7 </TD><TD align=right>.460 </TD><TD align=right>4.8 </TD><TD align=right>27% </TD><TD align=right>5.8 </TD><TD align=right>3.9 </TD><TD align=right>2.5 </TD><TD align=right>0.3 </TD><TD align=right>3.6 </TD><TD align=right>19.0 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>14.5 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>SF</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>15.3 </TD><TD align=right>.458 </TD><TD align=right>5.4 </TD><TD align=right>27% </TD><TD align=right>7.7 </TD><TD align=right>3.1 </TD><TD align=right>2.4 </TD><TD align=right>0.7 </TD><TD align=right>3.6 </TD><TD align=right>18.1 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>15.4 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>PF</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>15.9 </TD><TD align=right>.466 </TD><TD align=right>5.8 </TD><TD align=right>37% </TD><TD align=right>10.7 </TD><TD align=right>2.4 </TD><TD align=right>2.4 </TD><TD align=right>1.2 </TD><TD align=right>4.7 </TD><TD align=right>18.9 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>16.4 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>C</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>13.9 </TD><TD align=right>.470 </TD><TD align=right>5.7 </TD><TD align=right>51% </TD><TD align=right>12.2 </TD><TD align=right>1.7 </TD><TD align=right>3.0 </TD><TD align=right>2.6 </TD><TD align=right>6.5 </TD><TD align=right>17.0 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#99ff00>15.6 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Net Production by Position

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width=630 bgColor=#cccccc border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#99ccff><TD width=80><CENTER>Position</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>FGA</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>eFG%</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>FTA</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>iFG</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Reb</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Ast</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>T/O</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>Blk</CENTER></TD><TD width=40><CENTER>PF</CENTER></TD><TD width=50><CENTER>Pts</CENTER></TD><TD width=60><CENTER>PER*</CENTER></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>PG</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>-0.8 </TD><TD align=right>+.023 </TD><TD align=right>-1.1 </TD><TD align=right>-8% </TD><TD align=right>-0.1 </TD><TD align=right>0.5 </TD><TD align=right>-0.5 </TD><TD align=right>0.1 </TD><TD align=right>0.0 </TD><TD align=right>-0.8 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#ffff66>-1.0 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>SG</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>-0.5 </TD><TD align=right>+.010 </TD><TD align=right>-0.4 </TD><TD align=right>-4% </TD><TD align=right>-1.5 </TD><TD align=right>0.8 </TD><TD align=right>-0.6 </TD><TD align=right>0.1 </TD><TD align=right>-0.0 </TD><TD align=right>-0.5 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#ffff66>-1.9 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>SF</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>2.0 </TD><TD align=right>+.014 </TD><TD align=right>0.7 </TD><TD align=right>2% </TD><TD align=right>-0.3 </TD><TD align=right>-0.4 </TD><TD align=right>-0.5 </TD><TD align=right>0.2 </TD><TD align=right>-0.0 </TD><TD align=right>3.1 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#ffff66>+0.9 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>PF</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>-2.1 </TD><TD align=right>+.042 </TD><TD align=right>-0.3 </TD><TD align=right>-2% </TD><TD align=right>1.3 </TD><TD align=right>0.1 </TD><TD align=right>0.2 </TD><TD align=right>-0.2 </TD><TD align=right>-0.1 </TD><TD align=right>-0.7 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#ffff66>+1.4 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD><CENTER>C</CENTER></TD><TD align=right>0.0 </TD><TD align=right>+.019 </TD><TD align=right>1.0 </TD><TD align=right>-1% </TD><TD align=right>1.5 </TD><TD align=right>-0.1 </TD><TD align=right>0.1 </TD><TD align=right>-0.6 </TD><TD align=right>-0.6 </TD><TD align=right>0.9 </TD><TD align=right bgColor=#ffff66>+0.7 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Notes: the PER is a complicated single number rating developed by John Hollinger

and used extensively in his excellent Pro Basketball Prospectus books.

The league average PER is set to 15, but more importantly for this view, when

comparing the team's production to the opponent production you can learn whether the team has been getting a net positive or negative overall contribution from that position. eFG% is the effective field goal percentage, adjusted for three point shots,

while iFG represents the percentage of shots taken from inside/close to the hoop.

beast23

03-23-2006, 01:09 PM

One of the surprising things that stand out to me on the PER is that our effective FG% is higher at each position than the opponent's.

On the disturbing side is the iFG% by the PGs. More close range shots taken by our opponents' PGs. No surpise there really, we've said that AJ is the only defensive minded PG and that the others tend to play matador defense.

Also, the three primary positions that control the ball, PG-SG-SF have higher turnovers than our opponents. Not really a surprise there either - our number of turnovers has cost us more than a few games.

One of the surprising things that stand out to me on the PER is that our effective FG% is higher at each position than the opponent's.

On the disturbing side is the iFG% by the PGs. More close range shots taken by our opponents' PGs. No surpise there really, we've said that AJ is the only defensive minded PG and that the others tend to play matador defense.

Also, the three primary positions that control the ball, PG-SG-SF have higher turnovers than our opponents. Not really a surprise there either - our number of turnovers has cost us more than a few games.

I was also surprised by the PG's taking more rebounds then the SG's.

SG's weakest relative aspect is rebounding.

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