PDA

View Full Version : David with and without Saras



Lithfan
03-20-2006, 05:07 AM
All the time I've felt that DH benefits on Saras's assists. He is similar to centers Saras has played with in Europe, like Maceo Baston.
In few games that I saw, stats were not needed to realize it.

But when I said something about it, I was immediately attacked.

However, lately some other PD members are saying this too. So I decided to make a little effort and summarize DH stats in last two months.

The stats of last two months are attached.
I've separated DH games in two groups:
Group 1: games where Saras had 2 assists and more (those are actually almost all Feb. games)
Group 2: games where Saras had 1 assist or less (mostly SG position in March or DNP).
This division provided two groups with 13 and 7 games, respectively.

I've calculated DH average points and percentage in both groups and these are the results:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 166pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=221 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 58pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2464" width=77><COL style="WIDTH: 54pt" span=2 width=72><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 58pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=77 height=21></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=72>Pt</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=72>FG%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21>Group 1</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=72 x:num="10.307692307692308">10.3</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 54pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=72 x:num="62.195121951219512">62.2</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21>Group 2</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="6.7142857142857144">6.7</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num="34.146341463414636">34.1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I think the conclusion is obvious.

You are welcome to check me and debate.

Rytas_Jega
03-20-2006, 07:10 AM
Sorry, but I must say it can't be taken seriously. It's obvious your statistics do not show negativity of Šarūnas. It's 100% stupid like +/- statistics.

BBALL56HACKER
03-20-2006, 07:16 AM
Good point. I was thinking the same thing. the pick and roll with D.H. was worth a couple easy baskets (and free throws that don`t show up as an assits). Plus SAR. seems to have more passion when he plays which the other players seem to get caught up in!

Lithfan
03-20-2006, 07:29 AM
Sorry, but I must say it can't be taken seriously. It's obvious your statistics do not show negativity of Šarūnas. It's 100% stupid like +/- statistics.

No, it shows his positivity.

If you look into the play by play you'll see that most of Saras assists were to David.

And the sharp difference in David's stats with/without Saras clearly shows this.

FreshPrince22
03-20-2006, 07:39 AM
http://www.82games.com/0506/0506INDP.HTM

Lithfan
03-20-2006, 07:44 AM
http://www.82games.com/0506/0506INDP.HTM

I'm familiar with this stat, but it shows team points team +- etc when two particular players were on the court. It can lead to the mistake due to influence of other players on court as well as different opposing team players.

I've showed individual DH stats. Its different.

Kestas
03-20-2006, 07:48 AM
http://www.82games.com/0506/0506INDP.HTM

this should be the most important stats for NBA as two-on-two is all that coaches and players can handle in this league..
and generally who cares if Harrison scored more with Saras.. the team result is the most important thing.

Beowulfas
03-20-2006, 08:05 AM
Hello everybody,
At last I can post :D

In my opinion everything can be wrong, but not the numbers.

Look at the game with Denver.
+/- statistics. Foster +16, Harrison -14, Croshere -9.
All others ~0.

It is easy to tell, that Croshere and Harrison were the worst, and the team was doing well with Foster. And everybody should agree with it.

What is the most interesting part, is season +/-.
You do not need to be maths or basketball genius to find out, that a team is doing better with Peja and Saras on board (respectively +118, +111 each)
But very small part of PD would agree, that Saras is so valuable all season long :confused:

Tinsley is by far worst PG (-26), and Harrison (-19), toghether with Granger(-14), is not far away from him :)
These stats find me quit amazing how everybody love Harrison-Granger. That could be explained becauce both of them are young and has more or less potential to play a lot better in the future.

Why do the most prefer Tinsley to Jasikevicius, I can not understand.

Maybe it is like Jasikevicius whole team-play and passing thing must be very underrated. The team plays better with him, but it is not as clear as +/- stats make it, and all his turnovers thing must be overrated. All we hear all season long is that Saras can't dribble, does lot of mistakes, makes silly passes, team can't convert 3 on 1 plays with him, and we should wait for a drible-magic Allen Tinsley (I even do not dear to ask how can he get more TO than Saras :)

I agree, that Saras is not good shooter, making 37+ percent of 3-point goals.
Tinsley is making 25+ :D

I can not talk about Saras defence in NBA a lot, but common, he guarded Arenas to like 6 out of 18 last time he was gettin tons of time in PG spot.
And if his defence is so horrible as many say, his +/- should reflect it, but they do not.

COncerning all this DNP-coach decision thing, I think Saras could have said something 'come on, I am a PG' to Rick. Easily :D
But everything can happen, he can stay all the rest season on bench and get traded in off-season, or can start playing already this week.

Next 8 games will be VERY tough to Pacers. I see W on Bulls, but all these 8 games can get in to 2-6 + and 9th in the East nightmare very easily.

All NBA teams that bench Lithuanians have this sort of nightmares earlier or later :D

Lithfan
03-20-2006, 09:27 AM
Beowulfas,

I like the numbers too. But everybody here considers +- stats misleading in evaluation of particular player because it is influenced by others. \
IMO its not true if you look at the whole season stats.

I brought DH with/wo Saras issue because some people are saying its wrong and give an example of two game stats.
For example see Kegboy comment in postgame thread
http://www.pacersdigest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20038


Defense is the problem. Period.

As for Hulk and Cabbage, Hulk had 14 and 7 on 6-10 shooting against Orlando, the infamous "Rick breaks Cabbage's streak" game. The next game against Denver, he had 8 and 7 on 3-4 shooting.

By comparison, while David had had a very good streak going, his last two games with Cabbage, he had 4 and 2 on 2-5 shooting, and 2 and 4 on 0-4 shooting.

Fool
03-20-2006, 09:44 AM
this should be the most important stats for NBA as two-on-two is all that coaches and players can handle in this league..
and generally who cares if Harrison scored more with Saras.. the team result is the most important thing.


Please stick to slanderously characterizing the Pacers and leave other NBA teams out of it.

With fans like this, its a wonder there is a Saras backlash on these forums.

Ragnar
03-20-2006, 10:29 AM
The thing you are leaving out is how Rick is using David. Because of his earlier performance and because J.O. is nearly back Rick is trying to work the team back to the makes you puke in your mouth offense he ran for J.O. and he is running it through David. The problem is that David is more of a Dale Davis than a Jermaine Oneal. He is better off the ball and on the weak side so that he can be avalable for thos passes that you are talking about.

He will never be as open on the strong side of the ball when they are feeding it openly to him as he was on the weak side. Its not the pg's its the coach because last year David played as well if not better with Jamaal when David was on the weak side and Jamaal was able to get him open looks.

FreshPrince22
03-20-2006, 11:46 AM
I'm familiar with this stat, but it shows team points team +- etc when two particular players were on the court. It can lead to the mistake due to influence of other players on court as well as different opposing team players.

I've showed individual DH stats. Its different.

So what do you care about.. Harrison's stats or team results? Or is it just Saras stats/minutes?

Lithfan
03-20-2006, 12:49 PM
So what do you care about.. Harrison's stats or team results? Or is it just Saras stats/minutes?
I care about team result of course...
But the issue here is evaluation of individual performance and many people consider team results are biased. Nobody here would listen to the fact that Saras has best +- on the team. People say so what if he has highest +-, it doesn't mean that he really helped the team and give hypothetical examples like Saras makes 2 TO but SJax gets 4 3s in a row (did that ever happened?) so Saras goes to the bench with +12...

The same thing with Harrison performance. Nobody believes Harrison played better with Saras, but he does and those stats clearly show that. Not for one game but for 2 months.

And Ragnar, I believe you are right. Moreover, I believe what you said is correct about any player. It is easier to score when you get a pass for an easy basket than in ISO. Whereas Rick is causing other PG not to pass David or its PG fault, I don't know. In any case David was better when Saras played.

rabid
03-20-2006, 01:53 PM
I was one of the ones who made the comment that individual plus/minus stats by THEMSELVES can be very misleading. I still stand by that statement.

The stats provided here are more interesting, as well as more meaningful. The 82games.com link is pretty revealing. Multi-player (esp 5-man) plus minus stats usually are much more telling (though it helps to know who they're playing against; for example, if a bench player, such as Sarunas, has a high plus-minus, keep in mind that he's usually playing against the opponent's bench, rather than their starters).





As helpful as stats are, though...... there's no substitute for watching guys play. And, with no disrespect whatsoever intended, those of us in Indiana are probably seeing a lot more of Runi actually playing with this team than most of the folks in other countries.

Saras definitely does a better job feeding Harrison when he's gotten really deep post position. But there are other factors; for example, when Sarunas and Hulk are on the floor together, Harrison is often being guarded by a weaker (bench) defender and can arguably get into position easier, etc.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that these stats are interesting and helpful, but I don't think they "prove" anything.

Examples of how stats can be misleading:

- Eddie Gill has a great plus/minus (better than Tins). He should start over Tins!
- Stephen Jackson is the team's leading scorer. He must be the best player on the team!

etc. etc.

Lithfan
03-20-2006, 03:12 PM
I was one of the ones who made the comment that individual plus/minus stats by THEMSELVES can be very misleading. I still stand by that statement.

The stats provided here are more interesting, as well as more meaningful. The 82games.com link is pretty revealing. Multi-player (esp 5-man) plus minus stats usually are much more telling (though it helps to know who they're playing against; for example, if a bench player, such as Sarunas, has a high plus-minus, keep in mind that he's usually playing against the opponent's bench, rather than their starters).





As helpful as stats are, though...... there's no substitute for watching guys play. And, with no disrespect whatsoever intended, those of us in Indiana are probably seeing a lot more of Runi actually playing with this team than most of the folks in other countries.

Saras definitely does a better job feeding Harrison when he's gotten really deep post position. But there are other factors; for example, when Sarunas and Hulk are on the floor together, Harrison is often being guarded by a weaker (bench) defender and can arguably get into position easier, etc.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that these stats are interesting and helpful, but I don't think they "prove" anything.

Examples of how stats can be misleading:

- Eddie Gill has a great plus/minus (better than Tins). He should start over Tins!
- Stephen Jackson is the team's leading scorer. He must be the best player on the team!

etc. etc.

Thank you for replying.

Regarding your examples: Eddie Gill played not enough minutes to provide significant data. Therefore his +- is meaningless. SJax - points per game are the most misleading stat especially without FG%. I think that Sjax and Tins low +- is justified.

I agree that watching the games (I do now) is the best way to judge, however stats also help.

rabid
03-20-2006, 03:42 PM
Thank you for replying.

Regarding your examples: Eddie Gill played not enough minutes to provide significant data. Therefore his +- is meaningless. SJax - points per game are the most misleading stat especially without FG%. I think that Sjax and Tins low +- is justified.

I agree that watching the games (I do now) is the best way to judge, however stats also help.

One thing that we can probably agree on: AJ and Tins would do well to watch how Sarunas finds DH and where he gets him the ball. If Tins and AJ had the same sort of timing and looked for DH in the same spots (and Rick ran the same plays) then I think DH's stats would improve considerably.

Lithfan
03-20-2006, 03:58 PM
One thing that we can probably agree on: AJ and Tins would do well to watch how Sarunas finds DH and where he gets him the ball. If Tins and AJ had the same sort of timing and looked for DH in the same spots (and Rick ran the same plays) then I think DH's stats would improve considerably.

Agreed.

Dr. Goldfoot
03-20-2006, 04:38 PM
I think over the last 5 games, Jeff Foster is reaping the benefits David Harrison was reaping.

Dr. Goldfoot
03-20-2006, 04:44 PM
Which is all relative. Who cares if it's Foster who gets some good passes close to the basket from AJ or Tinsley or Harrison who gets some good passes close to the basket from Runi. Either way we've been getting good production from our centers over the last 10-12 games.

Foster over last 5 10.8ppg 13.6 rpg
Harrison over the previous 6 to that 12.2ppg 5.5 rpg

rabid
03-20-2006, 04:53 PM
Which is all relative. Who cares if it's Foster who gets some good passes close to the basket from AJ or Tinsley or Harrison who gets some good passes close to the basket from Runi. Either way we've been getting good production from our centers over the last 10-12 games.

Foster over last 5 10.8ppg 13.6 rpg
Harrison over the previous 6 to that 12.2ppg 5.5 rpg

I see your point, but I think it DOES matter, in the sense that David's skill set makes him better-suited to be a finisher inside. He's big and takes up a LOT of space, and is much more likely to draw a double-team inside than Jeff. Jeff tends to score better when cutting to the basket, while Harrison is probably better at establishing himself deep in the low post.

The end result in both cases is scoring, but the way it happens has a different effect on the team - the plays are different, they exploit different types of matchup, etc.

Also, when Jeff and David are on the floor together, I'd prefer to see David be the finisher on offense and have Jeff play off-the-ball so that he can position himself for the offensive rebound (or at least box out so David or somebody else can get it).

Evan_The_Dude
03-20-2006, 08:03 PM
Yes, Saras shoots 37% beyond the arc in comparison to Tinsley's 26%, but shooting isn't a big part of Tinsley's game like it is for Saras. He was brought over here mainly to fill the void of Reggie Miller in his ability to hit shots. Has he done that? Now and then yes.

Anybody who's actually SEEN the games would agree that Tinsley is the guy we'd rather have on the court. The team just operates better with him there. Even if he's having a 2-11 shooting performance, he can make up for that with his ability to run the offense. Saras on the other hand hasn't exactly shown that ability (not that I'm doubting he has it).

The only reason Saras isn't playing is because he's been outplayed all season. He's had his chance, but he's shown that he can only be effective with the ball in his hands. This requires him to strictly be a point guard. That's not a bad thing, except he has 2 guys ahead of him that have way more experience in running the offense that Rick Carlisle likes to run (as ugly as it can be).

Like Rick said, right now our pg spot is stronger than it's ever been. Somebody had to be the odd man out, and it just happens to be Saras because he's been the weakest link. At one time it was AJ who was the weakest link. A couple seasons before that, Tinsley was the weakest link in favor of washed up Kenny Anderson. It's obvious that on Carlisles team you have to earn your minutes or hand them over to the next guy. Nobody can walk in and expect a handout no matter how good you were before.

Now the question is, can Saras be strong and stay prepared just like Tinsley and AJ did?

Lithfan
03-21-2006, 02:57 AM
Yes, Saras shoots 37% beyond the arc in comparison to Tinsley's 26%, but shooting isn't a big part of Tinsley's game like it is for Saras. He was brought over here mainly to fill the void of Reggie Miller in his ability to hit shots. Has he done that? Now and then yes.

Anybody who's actually SEEN the games would agree that Tinsley is the guy we'd rather have on the court. The team just operates better with him there. Even if he's having a 2-11 shooting performance, he can make up for that with his ability to run the offense. Saras on the other hand hasn't exactly shown that ability (not that I'm doubting he has it).

The only reason Saras isn't playing is because he's been outplayed all season. He's had his chance, but he's shown that he can only be effective with the ball in his hands. This requires him to strictly be a point guard. That's not a bad thing, except he has 2 guys ahead of him that have way more experience in running the offense that Rick Carlisle likes to run (as ugly as it can be).

Like Rick said, right now our pg spot is stronger than it's ever been. Somebody had to be the odd man out, and it just happens to be Saras because he's been the weakest link. At one time it was AJ who was the weakest link. A couple seasons before that, Tinsley was the weakest link in favor of washed up Kenny Anderson. It's obvious that on Carlisles team you have to earn your minutes or hand them over to the next guy. Nobody can walk in and expect a handout no matter how good you were before.

Now the question is, can Saras be strong and stay prepared just like Tinsley and AJ did?

I think he will do his best because he is very competetive and professional. However its hard when you don't play a minute...

ChicagoJ
03-21-2006, 11:05 AM
I think he will do his best because he is very competetive and professional. However its hard when you don't play a minute...

That gives me even more respect for Tinsley's attitude when Rick benched him for a month at the beginning of the 2003/04 season.

Tinsley has always been ready to play when called upon (except when he has been rushed back from injuries before he was physically ready to play).

We seem to already be getting excuses for Saras not being prepared to play whenever the opportunity presents itself. And hopefully it doesn't, because I don't want to see either Tinsley or AJ get hurt.

Rumors of Tinsley's poor attitude and lack of professionalism are greatly exaggerated around here, and frankly it seems Saras could do himself a huge favor and learn a lot from Jamaal about how to conduct himself.

ChicagoJ
03-21-2006, 02:09 PM
There's no downplaying. Every time he's called upon to play he's prepared, and he takes advantage of the opportunity.

That's far more important than any perceived heat-of-the-moment attitude issues.

ChicagoJ
03-21-2006, 04:02 PM
I stormed off the track once in a heat-of-the-moment tiff over my replacement in the 4x100 relay with a guy that couldn't beat me at any distance. It was a youth movement. As the only senior sprinter, and a red-shirt at that, and as one of the two guys that had returned from the previous season's district championship relay team, I was not pleased at all with that type of disrespect during my fifth season on the team. I felt I was entitled to that spot, especially if I was still the second fastest of the four guys on that relay team.

I needed time to re-compose myself. That doesn't bother me when players get upset in the heat of the moment.

What I can't stand is when they don't/ can't get it out of their system in a short period of time, or react in a selfish, me-first way. That's the difference between the overblown situation with Tinsley and something more problematic, like Stephen Jackson for example.

I don't mind if these guys are upset about getting taken out of the game and in fact I want the guys in the starting lineup *to* care enough to get upset about it. What I look for is whether they can move beyond it in a reasonable period of time without doing anything tangible to disrupt the team.

Tinsley, for all his alleged body language and pouting during the heat of the battle, is by all accounts at practice/ the game the next day and ready to earn back his spot by being a team player. Im my book that's the right combination of competitive fire and good team attitude.

Evan_The_Dude
03-21-2006, 05:08 PM
I don't get how you saw that he didn't give a ****. Before he came back, I remember reading his comments on the teams chemistry and how well AJ was playing. If he didn't give a **** he sure fooled me. It seems like the only thing you have to judge this by is his body language.

Maybe he was just restless? I know when I'm sitting and watching something instead of actually being able to participate in it, I'm feeling quite restless to the point where maybe I look like I'm a little disgusted. I think you might be looking to far into this, man.