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able
03-14-2006, 07:48 AM
http://blogs.indystar.com/pacersinsider/archives/2006/03/play_the_odds.html#comments

Play the odds
Posted by Mark Montieth

For the past 18 seasons, the Pacers had a winning formula for dealing with crucial late-game possessions. You remember how it went.
Run your best shooter, Reggie Miller, off a screen or two and get the ball in his hands. Heíd take a shot and, as often as not, hit it. If he didnít have one, he had at least drawn the defense and could find an open teammate or two.
Or maybe that was all just a dream. You have to wonder, because they seem to have erased all those Miller moments from their collective hard drive this season. In five of the last six games theyíve had to rely on a last-minute field goal to extract a victory. The only game in which they got their best shooter, Peja Stojakovich, a shot was at Oklahoma City, where he hit a 3-pointer that proved to be the game-winner. In the others, Stephen Jackson and Anthony Johnson each got the call twice. The only successful possession in the other four games was in Philadelphia., where Jackson got a layup off an inbounds play designed for Johnson.
Letís see. Stojakovic is hitting .422 from 3-point range since joining the Pacers. Miller shot better than that just twice in his career, and had a career percentage of .395.
Is it just me, or would it make sense to dust off a few of those plays they ran for Miller and plug in Stojakovic, just to see what happens?

Unclebuck
03-14-2006, 08:36 AM
I have no problem going to Peja. But in the Celts game and the Sixers game the Pacers had less than 5 seconds, that is not enough time to run Peja off a series of screens. Unless you can do that off the inbounds pass, but that is incedibly difficult to do and get a decent shot.

Peja did hit a three against the Hornets, but he missed the next two shots he took after that. The Pacers defense won that game.

Strany
03-14-2006, 09:10 AM
I have no problem going to Peja. But in the Celts game and the Sixers game the Pacers had less than 5 seconds, that is not enough time to run Peja off a series of screens. Unless you can do that off the inbounds pass, but that is incedibly difficult to do and get a decent shot.



Is it really any more difficult, or less likley to succeed than having AJ or Jax go 1 on 5? I'm really not against an ISO in this situation but we have no
one that can be successfull in this situation at any reasonable clip. Jones is as close to a good ISO player as we have and he is not that great at it. It would be hard to have any less success running an inbound play than what we have been doing. Play to your horses strength's.

D-BONE
03-14-2006, 09:26 AM
I think the jury is still out on whether or not Peja can actually cut the mustard as the late game #1 option. However, I would like to see him get enough chances in those scenarios to provide a reasonably representative sample on which to base judgment.

So far I think we've basically got:
-several jacked FTs at home vs. Atlanta
-1-3 in the last two minutes vs. NO(?) w/ all good looks.
-Turnover to Bosh 1-on-1 vs. Toronto

Get him some more chances so we can formulate our off-season personnel plans. Would relative lack of chances the rest of the way signal that RC already perceives him as not up to task in this area?

Oh yeah, and I still agree w/UB that running a fairly lengthy-developing play is completely dependent on the amount of time remaining. Also, it's easy for us to see all these things should happen, but when you're out there executing under pressure with less than 10 seconds left...

Unclebuck
03-14-2006, 09:56 AM
Is it really any more difficult, or less likley to succeed than having AJ or Jax go 1 on 5? I'm really not against an ISO in this situation but we have no
one that can be successfull in this situation at any reasonable clip. Jones is as close to a good ISO player as we have and he is not that great at it. It would be hard to have any less success running an inbound play than what we have been doing. Play to your horses strength's.



Reason why it is so difficult, is because teams switch on all picks (late in games) , so that makes it difficult to get someone open on a series of baseline screens in less than 5 minutes, and if Peja can't get open, the point guard is stuff 25 feet from the basket holding the ball and has to throw up a buzzer beater.

with less than 5 seconds left your options are really limited. Iso or a 1-4 set is what almost every team runs, because if you get a double team you have time for a quick pass and shot.

Ragnar
03-14-2006, 10:34 AM
I have a better idea lets just do what we did last night and make sure Tinsley is in for the last few minutes so they can build an insurmountable lead!!!

Unclebuck
03-14-2006, 10:51 AM
I have a better idea lets just do what we did last night and make sure Tinsley is in for the last few minutes so they can build an insurmountable lead!!!



If he can stay healthy