What are the odds of Danny Granger being an All Star at some point in his career?
The Pacers had Granger rated in their top five before the collage draft. So the following speculation is dependent to some degree on their rating. So I ask the question again, 'What are the odds of Danny Granger being an All Star?' Wouldn't the best way to figure those odds be to check the top five players in each NBA draft and see how many made All Star teams? I think it would have some revel ency. To make it even more relevant though you wouldn't want to go back to the NBA's beginnings, just the past 20 years.
Here's what I found.
1985
1 Patrick Ewing..............Y
2 Wayman Tisdale
3 Benoit Benjamin
4 Xavier McDaniel..........Y
5 Jon Koncak
1986
1 Brad Daugherty ........Y
2 Len Bias
3 Chris Washburn
4 Chuck Person
5 Kenny Walker
1987
1 David Robinson..........Y
2 Armon Gilliam
3 Dennis Hopson
4 Reggie Williams
5 Scottie Pippen...........Y
1988
1 Danny Manning........Y
2 Rik Smits...............Y
3 Charles Smith
4 Chris Morris
5 Mitch Richmond.......Y
1989
1 Pervis Ellison
2 Danny Ferry
3 Sean Elliott...............Y
4 Glen Rice.................Y
5 J.R. Reid
1990
1. Derrick Coleman........Y
2. Gary Payton.............Y
3. Chris Jackson
4. Dennis Scott
5. Kendall Gill
1991
1. Larry Johnson.............Y
2. Kenny Anderson.........Y
3. Billy Owens
4. Dikembe Mutombo.......Y
5. Steve Smith.................Y
1992
1. Shaquille O'NeaL.........Y
2. Alonzo Mourning.........Y
3. Christian Laettner........Y
4. Jimmy Jackson
5. LaPhonso Ellis
1993
1. Chris Webber.............Y
2. Shawn Bradley
3. Anfernee Hardaway.....Y
4. Jamal Mashburn.........Y
5. Isaiah Rider
1994
1. Glenn Robinson..........Y
2. Jason Kidd................Y
3. Grant Hill...................Y
4. Donyell Marshall
5. Juwan Howard...........Y
1995
1. Joe Smith
2. Antonio McDyess.........Y
3. Jerry Stackhouse..........Y
4. Rasheed Wallace.........Y
5. Kevin Garnett...............Y
1996
1. Allen Iverson................Y
2. Marcus Camby
3. Shareef Abdur-Rahim
4. Stephon Marbury...........Y
5. Ray Allen.....................Y
1997
1. Tim Duncan..............Y
2. Keith Van Horn
3. Chauncey Billups
4. Antonio Daniels
5. Tony Battie
1998
1. Michael Olowokandi
2. Mike Bibby
3. Raef LaFrentz
4. Antawn Jamison...........Y
5. Vince Carter................Y
1999
1 Elton Brand................Y
2 Steve Francis..............Y
3 Baron Davis................Y
4 Lamar Odom
5 Jonathan Bender
2000
1. Kenyon Martin..........Y
2. Stromile Swift
3. Darius Miles
4. Marcus Fizer
5. Mike Miller
2001
1. Kwame Brown
2. Tyson Chandler
3. Pau Gasol
4. Eddy Curry
5. Jason Richardson
2002
1. Yao Ming....................Y
2. Jay Williams
3. Mike Dunleavy
4. Drew Gooden
5. Nickoloz Tskitishvili
2003
1. Lebron James.............Y
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh
5. Dwyane Wade............Y
2004
1. Dwight Howard
2. Emeka Okafor
3. Ben Gordon
4. Shaun Livingston
5. Devin Harris
I could have missed someone, but the results are 43 of the top five draftees in the last 20 years have made an all star team. That's 43%. However, I know longer think it's relevant the way I did it because the longer a player plays in the league the better he gets and his odds of making the All Star team rises.
I don't know what the optimum years would be, but dropping the last five years will give a more actuate result. From 1985 though 1999, 39 of the top five draftees out of 75 players made the All Star team. That's 52 %. Looking at it objectively I would say Danny Granger is close to even money to make an All Star team during his career.
That's if he was picked in the top five, since he wasn't, I would say his odds are still 50%. (grin)
---------------------------
I was looking at team salaries on Hoopshype the other day and figured the Pacers would have to pay out about 12 million in luxury tax and get back about 4. Of course my figures are all wet again because payrolls will change. Hoopshype hasn't even updated their figures. However, if the team payrolls listed were what they would be at the end of the year, seven teams would have to pay the luxury tax. The luxury tax this coming year will be $61.7 million. That would mean the Knicks would pay $48 million. Dallas would pay $41 million. Philly would pay $15 million. Orlando would pay$7.5 million. Memphis would pay $2 million. Sacramento would pay $200 thousand. And the Pacers would pay about $11 million. Add those up and you have $124.7 million in luxury taxes. Divide that among all 30 teams and each team gets $4.1 million. That makes the Pacers paying out about $7 million.
All that proves is if we get the correct payroll figures of each team we can figure out how much each team has to pay or how much they get back. Yeah, this was much ado about nothing since teams aren't even close to finalizing their lineups. (grin)
--------------------------
The new Collective Bargaining Agreement says this, ARTICLE XXIV: PROHIBITION OF NO-TRADE CONTRACTS
Section 1. General Limitation.
No Player Contract may contain any prohibition or limitation of an NBA Team’s right to assign such Contract to another NBA Team.
Section 2. Exceptions to General Limitation.
Notwithstanding the provisions of Section 1 of this Article XXIV:
(b) A Player Contract entered into by a player who has eight (8) or more Years of Service in the NBA and who has rendered four (4) or more Years of Service for the Team entering into such Contract may contain a prohibition or limitation of such Team’s right to trade such Contract to another NBA Team.
------------
The Pacer's don't have anyone that would even qualify for this. Austin Croshere is starting his 8th year of service, and he's been with the Pacers from the start. I doubt if he has a no trade cause in his contract though.
Actually his salary has been as effective as a no trade cause. (grin)
-----------------------------------------------
Did you know that players get reimbursed for “reasonable” moving expenses?
Did you know that traded players can be reimbursed by the assignee-Team for the cost of his living quarters (either rent or mortgage expense), for a period of three months after the date of the trade; provided, however, that such payment shall be made only if and to the extent that the player is legally obligated for such costs, and shall not exceed $4,000 per month.
Did you know when players are on the road they get $102.00 for meal expenses?
The Pacers had Granger rated in their top five before the collage draft. So the following speculation is dependent to some degree on their rating. So I ask the question again, 'What are the odds of Danny Granger being an All Star?' Wouldn't the best way to figure those odds be to check the top five players in each NBA draft and see how many made All Star teams? I think it would have some revel ency. To make it even more relevant though you wouldn't want to go back to the NBA's beginnings, just the past 20 years.
Here's what I found.
1985
1 Patrick Ewing..............Y
2 Wayman Tisdale
3 Benoit Benjamin
4 Xavier McDaniel..........Y
5 Jon Koncak
1986
1 Brad Daugherty ........Y
2 Len Bias
3 Chris Washburn
4 Chuck Person
5 Kenny Walker
1987
1 David Robinson..........Y
2 Armon Gilliam
3 Dennis Hopson
4 Reggie Williams
5 Scottie Pippen...........Y
1988
1 Danny Manning........Y
2 Rik Smits...............Y
3 Charles Smith
4 Chris Morris
5 Mitch Richmond.......Y
1989
1 Pervis Ellison
2 Danny Ferry
3 Sean Elliott...............Y
4 Glen Rice.................Y
5 J.R. Reid
1990
1. Derrick Coleman........Y
2. Gary Payton.............Y
3. Chris Jackson
4. Dennis Scott
5. Kendall Gill
1991
1. Larry Johnson.............Y
2. Kenny Anderson.........Y
3. Billy Owens
4. Dikembe Mutombo.......Y
5. Steve Smith.................Y
1992
1. Shaquille O'NeaL.........Y
2. Alonzo Mourning.........Y
3. Christian Laettner........Y
4. Jimmy Jackson
5. LaPhonso Ellis
1993
1. Chris Webber.............Y
2. Shawn Bradley
3. Anfernee Hardaway.....Y
4. Jamal Mashburn.........Y
5. Isaiah Rider
1994
1. Glenn Robinson..........Y
2. Jason Kidd................Y
3. Grant Hill...................Y
4. Donyell Marshall
5. Juwan Howard...........Y
1995
1. Joe Smith
2. Antonio McDyess.........Y
3. Jerry Stackhouse..........Y
4. Rasheed Wallace.........Y
5. Kevin Garnett...............Y
1996
1. Allen Iverson................Y
2. Marcus Camby
3. Shareef Abdur-Rahim
4. Stephon Marbury...........Y
5. Ray Allen.....................Y
1997
1. Tim Duncan..............Y
2. Keith Van Horn
3. Chauncey Billups
4. Antonio Daniels
5. Tony Battie
1998
1. Michael Olowokandi
2. Mike Bibby
3. Raef LaFrentz
4. Antawn Jamison...........Y
5. Vince Carter................Y
1999
1 Elton Brand................Y
2 Steve Francis..............Y
3 Baron Davis................Y
4 Lamar Odom
5 Jonathan Bender
2000
1. Kenyon Martin..........Y
2. Stromile Swift
3. Darius Miles
4. Marcus Fizer
5. Mike Miller
2001
1. Kwame Brown
2. Tyson Chandler
3. Pau Gasol
4. Eddy Curry
5. Jason Richardson
2002
1. Yao Ming....................Y
2. Jay Williams
3. Mike Dunleavy
4. Drew Gooden
5. Nickoloz Tskitishvili
2003
1. Lebron James.............Y
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh
5. Dwyane Wade............Y
2004
1. Dwight Howard
2. Emeka Okafor
3. Ben Gordon
4. Shaun Livingston
5. Devin Harris
I could have missed someone, but the results are 43 of the top five draftees in the last 20 years have made an all star team. That's 43%. However, I know longer think it's relevant the way I did it because the longer a player plays in the league the better he gets and his odds of making the All Star team rises.
I don't know what the optimum years would be, but dropping the last five years will give a more actuate result. From 1985 though 1999, 39 of the top five draftees out of 75 players made the All Star team. That's 52 %. Looking at it objectively I would say Danny Granger is close to even money to make an All Star team during his career.
That's if he was picked in the top five, since he wasn't, I would say his odds are still 50%. (grin)
---------------------------
I was looking at team salaries on Hoopshype the other day and figured the Pacers would have to pay out about 12 million in luxury tax and get back about 4. Of course my figures are all wet again because payrolls will change. Hoopshype hasn't even updated their figures. However, if the team payrolls listed were what they would be at the end of the year, seven teams would have to pay the luxury tax. The luxury tax this coming year will be $61.7 million. That would mean the Knicks would pay $48 million. Dallas would pay $41 million. Philly would pay $15 million. Orlando would pay$7.5 million. Memphis would pay $2 million. Sacramento would pay $200 thousand. And the Pacers would pay about $11 million. Add those up and you have $124.7 million in luxury taxes. Divide that among all 30 teams and each team gets $4.1 million. That makes the Pacers paying out about $7 million.
All that proves is if we get the correct payroll figures of each team we can figure out how much each team has to pay or how much they get back. Yeah, this was much ado about nothing since teams aren't even close to finalizing their lineups. (grin)
--------------------------
The new Collective Bargaining Agreement says this, ARTICLE XXIV: PROHIBITION OF NO-TRADE CONTRACTS
Section 1. General Limitation.
No Player Contract may contain any prohibition or limitation of an NBA Team’s right to assign such Contract to another NBA Team.
Section 2. Exceptions to General Limitation.
Notwithstanding the provisions of Section 1 of this Article XXIV:
(b) A Player Contract entered into by a player who has eight (8) or more Years of Service in the NBA and who has rendered four (4) or more Years of Service for the Team entering into such Contract may contain a prohibition or limitation of such Team’s right to trade such Contract to another NBA Team.
------------
The Pacer's don't have anyone that would even qualify for this. Austin Croshere is starting his 8th year of service, and he's been with the Pacers from the start. I doubt if he has a no trade cause in his contract though.
Actually his salary has been as effective as a no trade cause. (grin)
-----------------------------------------------
Did you know that players get reimbursed for “reasonable” moving expenses?
Did you know that traded players can be reimbursed by the assignee-Team for the cost of his living quarters (either rent or mortgage expense), for a period of three months after the date of the trade; provided, however, that such payment shall be made only if and to the extent that the player is legally obligated for such costs, and shall not exceed $4,000 per month.
Did you know when players are on the road they get $102.00 for meal expenses?
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