Saints have more luck than the Colts

[Basketball Fan]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...165312334.html

The Horseshoe's on the Other Helmet


The New Orleans Saints clearly have the edge over the Indianapolis Colts in luck this season. And as the teams prepare for Super Bowl XLIV, that isn't necessarily a good thing.


While 15-3 New Orleans led the league in scoring, the 16-2 Colts have been stronger per play. Including playoffs and regular-season games in which the teams didn't rest their starting quarterback, the Colts gained 1.01 more yards per play than their opponents did. The Saints' figure was 0.76.

Meanwhile, the Saints have enjoyed a greater helping of fumbles, funny bounces and bad opponents than the Colts. There was the Week 13 gift in Washington, when the Saints scored a touchdown on a play in which quarterback Drew Brees threw an interception, then went on to win after the Redskins missed a chip-shot field goal. Then there was their NFC title-game victory, which came courtesy of five Minnesota Vikings turnovers. In all, four of the Saints' wins turned on turnovers and other flukes.
Luck of the Saints

New Orleans has gotten the benefit of several factors this season that it can't necessarily count on in Sunday's Super Bowl against the Indianapolis Colts.
Colts Saints
Opponents' win % .458 .452
Turnover ratio +10 +20
Nonoffensive TDs 3 10
Per-play yardage margin* 1.01 0.76
Wins by 8 pts of fewer 8 5

Note: All stats include playoff games and exclude games in which the teams rested key starters.

The schedule was also kinder to New Orleans: Including playoff opponents and excluding meaningless games, Saints opponents had a .452 winning percentage, compared with the Colts' .485.

The teams arguably have been bit by the injury bug equally, with the Colts hit hard in the secondary and key Saints like Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey slowed by injuries periodically.

Still, the karma has been more on the Saints' sideline overall; their only hope is that it stays there.

[Frostwolf]

i don't see how you consider turnovers "luck," but there you go.

[Pig Nash]

Fumble recoveries are almost always luck. Forced fumbles deep in the secondary or of the QB are almost always recovered by the defense but otherwise it's just who the ball bounces too.

[Moses]

Of course they were. The Saints were extremely lucky to beat the Vikes.

[DrBadd01]

Originally Posted by Moses

Of course they were. The Saints were extremely lucky to beat the Vikes.

that said this Jets fan is cheering for the Saints and the people of New Orleans. If poetic justice does in fact exist the Saints should stomp on the Colts.

[Hicks]

Originally Posted by DrBadd01

that said this Jets fan is cheering for the Saints and the people of New Orleans. If poetic justice does in fact exist the Saints should stomp on the Colts.

What would make it poetic justice?

[Los Angeles]

Originally Posted by DrBadd01

that said this Jets fan is cheering for the Saints and the people of New Orleans. If poetic justice does in fact exist the Saints should stomp on the Colts.

Oh, please.

[Trader Joe]

Originally Posted by DrBadd01

that said this Jets fan is cheering for the Saints and the people of New Orleans. If poetic justice does in fact exist the Saints should stomp on the Colts.

Why?

[DrBadd01]

Originally Posted by Indy

Why?

Consider what happened to those poor people. . . . They deserve this game. How many of you have visited the lower ninth ward of New Orleans since Katrina? Well I tell you that I have, and what happened to them was truly awful. . . . They deserve at least one night where they can celebrate. The fact that the Jets lost to the Colts does not play into my choice. . . seeing first hand what happened to New Orleans does.

[Trader Joe]

Originally Posted by DrBadd01

Consider what happened to those poor people. . . . They deserve this game.

Admin Note:
Let's not even go there, please.

 

It's a football game between two football teams, Katrina was a terrible event don't get me wrong, but anyone could have guessed that a city built under water level with an old system of levies was a ticking time bomb, and the way the citizens of that city responded was not exactly what I would call exemplary.

What happens if the Saints don't win? Ten years from now they'll be back in the Super Bowl and the team playing them will still have to hear about how they deserve it because of Katrina, give me a break.

And yes I feel pity for what happened, but no I don't think that they deserve some sort of justice via a football game. Winning the Super Bowl does not change what happened.

[SoupIsGood]

Originally Posted by DrBadd01

Consider what happened to those poor people. . . . They deserve this game. How many of you have visited the lower ninth ward of New Orleans since Katrina? Well I tell you that I have, and what happened to them was truly awful. . . . They deserve at least one night where they can celebrate. The fact that the Jets lost to the Colts does not play into my choice. . . seeing first hand what happened to New Orleans does.

Yeah, like dc said, that's not poetic justice. Poetic justice would be if the Colts had caused the hurricane specifically in order to somehow weaken the Saints team, but, instead of being weakened, the Saints rebounded stronger than ever (say because the NFL for some reason gave them 'natural disaster' drafting concessions or something), and then in this superbowl the high-ranked draft selection they gained from those draft concessions (let's say he's a d-lineman) beat the colts w/ some kind of incredible last-second sack/forced-fumble/recovery/touchdown combination-play.


Typically it's connected with some kind of hubris. Saying that it'd be 'poetic justice' if the Colts does look kind of whiny, because it looks like you're trying to imply levels of villainy/arrogance that pretty clearly aren't there.

[Adam1987]

Originally Posted by DrBadd01

that said this Jets fan is cheering for the Saints and the people of New Orleans. If poetic justice does in fact exist the Saints should stomp on the Colts.

Why is it poetic justice? Because the Colts beat the Jets?

[Since86]

It's not luck at all. I've been hearing for weeks that the Saints D coach has them do 6 stations every day to start practice that works on creating turnovers.

It's just a product of emphasis in their system. Once the ball is on the ground it's a 50/50 shot on which team is gonna come up with it.

[Pig Nash]

I'm not saying that they are lucky in forcing the turnovers, it's the recovering that's lucky.

[Since86]

Originally Posted by Pig Nash

I'm not saying that they are lucky in forcing the turnovers, it's the recovering that's lucky.

And I'm saying the more you force the more you recover. I don't think luck has anything to do with it.

Here's an article that tracked fumbles from 2000 through week 10 of 2009.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...play-type.html

On running play fumbles, the defense gained possession 55% of the time compared to 47% on passing plays.

A fumble on a running occurs 1.16% of the time, and 2.04% for passing plays.