Deal with Toronto

[Jim R]

Pacers get:
Jose Calderon (sign and trade) at $8M per year
Kris Humphries at $2M per year / '11
First round pick in 2009, #1 protected.

Raptors get:
Jamal Tinsley at $6.5M per year / '11
Jeff Foster at $5M per year / '09
#11 rookie pick


It seem inevitable the Raptors are going to get rid of one of their PGs. They will either sign/trade Calderon, flat out lose Calderon to a front loaded offer sheet, or trade TJ Ford. I have no clue what their draft desires are, but they could then package 11 and 17 to move up if they desire another athletic big man.

If they are going to lose Calderon, they need to get something for him. I'm not sure many are going to give them anything better than a #1 and Foster, who by the way is an expiring contract. Foster is a great compliment to Chris Bosh, just as he is to JO, and he is a strong defender. That's better than what they have now. If it doesn't get them over the hump, it nets them $5M of cap space after next year.

For all of those niceties they also must take Tinsley. MAYBE he finally gets put into a position where he has to actually work for his job instead of having everyone pump him up in the media. He will either sink or swim in this setting, but that would be Toronto's problem. The 11th pick of this year's draft is the sugar to make Tinsley taste a little less bitter.


Why the Pacers would do it? Plain and simple, they get a very talented, very efficient PG. The latter being just as important as the former. They get a great shooter who isn't turnover prone. They get a defender who works well in a system, even though no one would ever call him great. Tinsley is a very ABLE defender but not a willing one. He gets a lot of steals, but he creates so many angles and pathways for his opponent it kills the Pacers.


I'm still on the JO bandwagon, though I'm more accepting of deals for him. Playing with Calderon could energize him. He would be playing for the first time a PG who get shots for others, provide a lot of outside cover, and plays well in a ball screen system. I'd love to see JO play with a strong PG.


Why give up the pick? To me the goal is simple with this pick, use it to secure their future PG. If that's via a trade, great!!

Oh BTW, they get rid of Tinsley.

I don't see the Raptors doing anything like this involving just swapping picks this year, not in getting a bad contract in Tinsley. Actually, in this deal they get cap relief a littler earlier due to Foster's contract expiring.

[MillerTime]

Colderon is good, real good, but i just dont see the pacers giving a first round pick for this deal.

[Jim R]

I can see where that would be pretty conventional wisdom, but the idea is to use the pick to address a need. Look at it like this, realizing this is a path they are not necessarily considering, would they rather draft a young, unproven PG or deal for one AND get rid of Tinsley?

[Manguera]

I would be surprised if Toronto gives up Calderon but I would like it for us. You have a better shot at getting Ford but he's got injury issues and is even smaller than Augustine.

[himikey]

Calderon is a fan favorite and a borderline all-star. They would get an injury-prone troublemaker and a 32 year old role player in return. Why wouldn't they agree to this?

[Jim R]

Ooops...I went back to review my post to see why you didn't think getting the #11 pick was something to blow off. I had the picks inverted. My bad.

[TheDoddage]

Toronto declines. They can get a much better offer than this for Calderon, who they probably view as their better PG.

[d_c]

Originally Posted by TheDoddage

Toronto declines. They can get a much better offer than this for Calderon, who they probably view as their better PG.

Yep. One thing people have to remember is that there are more trading partners for them than just the Pacers.

If they put Calderon on the block, there would be more for them to choose from than just the #11 pick and Jamal Tinsley's remaining 3 years.

[Pacersfan46]

One thing you guys are forgetting, is the sign and trade part. Players can put teams in positions where they get much less value for a player than what they should. Look what we got for Brad Miller.

I still would put this in the 'dream on' category, but you never know what kind of a bind a team can be put in by a player as a free agent.

-- Steve --

[d_c]

You didn't get much for Brad Miller because the Simons were up against the luxury tax and unwilling to take back much salary. It wasn't because Miller forced his way out. The Pacers just weren't willing to pay for either re-signing Miller or the salary of anything coming back in a trade.

The Raptors aren't in the same bind with the luxury tax.

[croz24]

nope. no way if i'm the pacers do i give up my only 1st rounder for an unproven player...smart drafting would get us a better player at #11 than jose...

[Jim R]

Originally Posted by d_c

Yep. One thing people have to remember is that there are more trading partners for them than just the Pacers.

If they put Calderon on the block, there would be more for them to choose from than just the #11 pick and Jamal Tinsley's remaining 3 years.

I doubt that very much. You can't dismiss the value of Foster in this deal, not only his intangibles on the court playing alongside Bosh who could use a strong position defender, but also his expiring contract.

If you're just looking at it from the "just the #11 pick" perspective, look at the teams ahead of the Pacers. Between Chicago and Miami, Derrick Rose will fall. If Chicago takes Rose it will likely mean a deal is in place for Hinrich. Moving Hinrich will mean another team who no longer need a PG. Either way, Miami isn't going to be involved in a deal involving that pick for Calderon.

3) Minnesota
4) Seattle
5) Memphis
6) New York
7) LA Clippers
8) Milwaukee
9) Charlotte
10) New Jersey

Milwaukee, Charlotte, Memphis, and New Jersey don't need a PG. Seattle will have the option to get Jarryd Bayless, but if Minnesota takes him I don't see them dealing the pick. Who knows which direction Minnesota will go with their pick. If they view Foye as a PG, they could go big with Brook Lopez or SG with OJ Mayo. If they view Foye as a SG or just not their PG of the future, they could go with Bayless.

Either way, whoever takes Bayless, remove them from the list of potential suitors, and I doubt the other swaps out picks #3 or #4 for Calderon.

I can see the Knicks and the Clippers wanting to go after Calderon. The Clippers have Brand and Maggette with the ability to opt out. Outside of those two they only have five players under contract for next year. I doubt Brand opts out after major Achilles surgery, and I can't see Maggette getting what his contract calls for on the open market. That leaves a pretty unimpressive list of players to give back to Toronto.

Perhaps the Clips would be under the cap where they wouldn't have to match salaries. That could be a good option for Toronto, but would the Clippers really give up the 7th pick with a great deal of cap space? They could add a strong player with the 7th pick and a good FA or two.


The Knicks are probably the most intriguing because of D'Antoni. Do you give up #6 in a deal for Calderon?

Like him or not, part of the attraction in the deal with Indy is Tinsley as a back up. Perhaps motivated to earn minutes, Tinsley might wake up. The Knicks have worse contracts than the Pacers. I don't see the Knicks parting with David Lee and the pick.

Let's say Toronto would value Nate Robinson as a back up to TJ Ford. The Knicks would have to match salaries. That could mean Jared Jeffries to make it work.

Toronto gets:
Nate Robinson, $1.1M / '09
Jared Jeffries, $6M / '11
#6

New York gets:
Calderon
2009 #1; protected

In D'Antoni's system, Robinson could be pretty valuable. I'm not sure the Knicks make that trade unless they could dump one of their really bad contracts. At least Jeffries plays hard and defends.


I'm a big Jeff Foster fan. I'm not suggesting he has the trade value normally to entice such a deal, but when you look at the parade of players the Raptors have paired with Bosh along the front line, he would be a major defense upgrade. If it doesn't work for them or someone such as Bargnani develops behind him, they can let him go. If it does work out, they can re-sign him for pretty cheap.


I know you didn't limit your response to just those with better picks. I'm not sure, however, how many teams could or would go the way of a good big man with starting experience and a good pick.

[Jim R]

Originally Posted by croz24

nope. no way if i'm the pacers do i give up my only 1st rounder for an unproven player...smart drafting would get us a better player at #11 than jose...

I don't think anyone in the league views Calderon as an unproven player. When you look at his part time numbers, they are very impressive, and when you consider he is still every bit as efficient as a starter (high shooting percentages, low turnovers), he is a very good commodity.

Unless someone slides, the Pacers will not be able to find someone better at the PG spot with #11. I like DJ Augustine, and if the Pacers keep their pick that's who I'd like to see them get. Either way, I just hope they use #11 to address their PG needs.

[Jim R]

Originally Posted by d_c

You didn't get much for Brad Miller because the Simons were up against the luxury tax and unwilling to take back much salary. It wasn't because Miller forced his way out. The Pacers just weren't willing to pay for either re-signing Miller or the salary of anything coming back in a trade.

The Raptors aren't in the same bind with the luxury tax.

The Raptors don't seem intent on having both players on their roster next year, and if I'm the Pacers there is no way I would make the same deal for Ford that I would for Calderon. Too much health risk on Ford, and at his size, you might as well go for the younger version in DJ Augustine who is a much better shooter at that stage.

BTW...the Pacers took back the salary. It was just in contracts that were going to expire.

[d_c]

Originally Posted by Jim R

The Raptors don't seem intent on having both players on their roster next year, and if I'm the Pacers there is no way I would make the same deal for Ford that I would for Calderon. Too much health risk on Ford, and at his size, you might as well go for the younger version in DJ Augustine who is a much better shooter at that stage.

BTW...the Pacers took back the salary. It was just in contracts that were going to expire.

Again, who says the Pacers are the only team the Raptors have to deal with? If you're the only team for them to deal with, then that puts you in a position of leverage, but there are 28 other teams in the league as well.

All the Pacers got back in trade were Danny Ferry and Scott Pollard. Those contracts fell well short of what Miller made in his first year of his new deal. Remember that the Pacers also traded away Ron Mercer in the deal (that was even more outgoing salary), so the salary they took in was far less than what they were giving out.

[Jim R]

Originally Posted by d_c

Again, who says the Pacers are the only team the Raptors have to deal with? If you're the only team for them to deal with, then that puts you in a position of leverage, but there are 28 other teams in the league as well.

All the Pacers got back in trade were Danny Ferry and Scott Pollard. Those contracts fell well short of what Miller made in his first year of his new deal. Remember that the Pacers also traded away Ron Mercer in the deal (that was even more outgoing salary), so the salary they took in was far less than what they were giving out.

Maybe you didn't see where I covered other teams, as well as the criteria it appears the Raptors looking to achieve in the offseason.

I don't believe what the Pacers got in return for Miller fell well short of what Miller made in his first year. If they did, it's because the Kings were below the salary cap. Otherwise, their salaries can't be well short.

[d_c]

Originally Posted by Jim R

Maybe you didn't see where I covered other teams, as well as the criteria it appears the Raptors looking to achieve in the offseason.

I don't believe what the Pacers got in return for Miller fell well short of what Miller made in his first year. If they did, it's because the Kings were below the salary cap. Otherwise, their salaries can't be well short.

One of the Raptors' goal this offseason is to keep Calderon. Trading him for a late lottery pick doesn't achieve that goal. They can achieve their goal w/o crossing the luxury tax by just re-signing him, so their back aren't against the wall.

It was the Spurs who were under the salary cap. That's how they were able to take on Turkoglu and Mercer without giving any salary back. The used their salary cap flexibility to act as facilitators.

http://espn.go.com/nba/columns/stein_marc/1584734.html

[Jim R]

Originally Posted by d_c

One of the Raptors' goal this offseason is to keep Calderon. Trading him for a late lottery pick doesn't achieve that goal. They can achieve their goal w/o crossing the luxury tax by just re-signing him, so their back aren't against the wall.

It was the Spurs who were under the salary cap. That's how they were able to take on Turkoglu and Mercer without giving any salary back. The used their salary cap flexibility to act as facilitators.

http://espn.go.com/nba/columns/stein_marc/1584734.html

I get that is what Toronto wants to do, but they don't have complete control of the process. With both Calderon and Ford wanting to start, they risk an unhappy camper and not as much flexibility in the future than July with a sign and trade.

Calderon can easily sign an offer sheet which is front loaded to the point of not being attractive or conducive for Toronto to match. They may be willing to deal Ford before July 1, all but signifying that Calderon is their starter, but they will be able to get more for Calderon than Ford.

[wintermute]

Originally Posted by Jim R

I get that is what Toronto wants to do, but they don't have complete control of the process. With both Calderon and Ford wanting to start, they risk an unhappy camper and not as much flexibility in the future than July with a sign and trade.

hate to burst your bubble, but this trade really isn't very attractive for toronto.

you say that toronto's problem is that both calderon and ford want to start? and yet you're sending them tinsley? adding tinsley to the mix hurts both their chemistry and future flexibility a lot more than just keeping jose and tj. this trade doesn't solve toronto's problem, instead it makes it worse.

Originally Posted by Jim R

Calderon can easily sign an offer sheet which is front loaded to the point of not being attractive or conducive for Toronto to match. They may be willing to deal Ford before July 1, all but signifying that Calderon is their starter, but they will be able to get more for Calderon than Ford.

sure calderon can sign a large front loaded offer sheet... but not with the pacers. we don't have cap space, so we're only limited to making midlevel offers. and even then, luxury tax means that we probably won't even use the midlevel.

[Jim R]

I understand that he can't sign a front loaded offer with the Pacers, but in a sign and trade scenario where the trade part of it is agreed upon he wouldn't have to. Much like Joe Johnson did with Phoenix to force their hand. The deal he would sign without an established trade could be different while still being financially beneficial to both sides.

As for the deal being worse for Toronto, I don't agree with your point. Let's assume Tinsley would be a chemistry issue for Toronto and not like starting. Better to have the additional pick and a big to go with Bosh who can actually defend someone than just a disgruntled PG.

It also wouldn't hurt their cap flexibility more than just keeping Calderon and Ford. Keeping Calderon would likely cost them 4 or 5 years of a contract, meaning he would be under contract until 2012 or 2013. Humphries through 2011.

Calderon at $8M through 2013.
Humphries at $2.5M through 2011.

Foster at $6M through 2009.
Tinsley at $6.8M through 2011.

I don't see Toronto just letting Calderon walk without compensation, and I don't see them heading into next year with Calderon and Ford. I see them getting more for Calderon than Ford. The #11 pick and a good defensive big man with an expiring contract carries very good value in the NBA.

[d_c]

Originally Posted by Jim R

I don't see Toronto just letting Calderon walk without compensation, and I don't see them heading into next year with Calderon and Ford. I see them getting more for Calderon than Ford. The #11 pick and a good defensive big man with an expiring contract carries very good value in the NBA.

Sorry, I just don't see the Pacers holding any kind of hammer here against the Raptors. They're in no position to leverage anything against anyone. Not with Jamal Tinsley as their main bargaining chip, LOL.

I'd like to first see a team under the cap (of which there are few) giving a big frontloaded offer to Calderon to begin with (which Toronton can still match). For starters, I don't even see that happening. It's Toronto with the leverage on Calderon, not the other way around.

[avoidingtheclowns]

Originally Posted by d_c

Sorry, I just don't see the Pacers holding any kind of hammer here against the Raptors. They're in no position to leverage anything against anyone. Not with Jamal Tinsley as their main bargaining chip, LOL.

what you don't take into account is that jamaal tinsley would be the pacer holding the hammer against colangelo...

[Jim R]

Originally Posted by d_c

Sorry, I just don't see the Pacers holding any kind of hammer here against the Raptors. They're in no position to leverage anything against anyone. Not with Jamal Tinsley as their main bargaining chip, LOL.

I'd like to first see a team under the cap (of which there are few) giving a big frontloaded offer to Calderon to begin with (which Toronton can still match). For starters, I don't even see that happening. It's Toronto with the leverage on Calderon, not the other way around.

If you're not interested in discussing the deal as it's been presented that's fine, but don't put words into my mouth, so to speak. I never referred to or stated Tinsley as a "main bargaining chip". The main bargaining chips are the 11th pick and a good defensive big man with a very reasonable contract.

Calderon is going to get a contract offer for $8M per year, if not a touch more. It will likely be for four or five years. Toronto may desire to match it, but I doubt they will go into next year with both Calderon and Ford.

Three years of Tinsley for a team under the cap isn't so daunting, especially if Foster's $6M comes off the books in 2009 should they desire to go in a different direction.

[d_c]

Originally Posted by Jim R

If you're not interested in discussing the deal as it's been presented that's fine, but don't put words into my mouth, so to speak. I never referred to or stated Tinsley as a "main bargaining chip". The main bargaining chips are the 11th pick and a good defensive big man with a very reasonable contract.

Calderon is going to get a contract offer for $8M per year, if not a touch more. It will likely be for four or five years. Toronto may desire to match it, but I doubt they will go into next year with both Calderon and Ford.

Three years of Tinsley for a team under the cap isn't so daunting, especially if Foster's $6M comes off the books in 2009 should they desire to go in a different direction.

I've discussed this deal plenty, and my simple conclusion is that if Toronto doesn't want to go into next season with Ford and Calderon, they're even less likely to want to go in with Ford and Tinsley. I don't think that's going out on a limb.

Let's say Calderon gets $8M per year. Well, that's about $1M a year more than Mr. Team Player Tinsley is due over the next 3 years. I'd say they'd rather just keep to pay Calderon.

While they get the #11 pick, you also have them giving up their pick next season. And that would be after a season in which they just gave someone else their starting PG and 2nd best player from this past year. That doesn't add up for Toronto.

Bosh can opt out the same year as Lebron in 2010. They need to make sure they have a situation that can keep him happy. Substituting Calderon with Tinsley and a rookie isn't going to do that. This isn't the most ridiculous proposal I've seen, but I don't see the Raptors accepting this deal of the #11 pick while having to take on Tinsley in exchange for their 2nd best player and their pick in 2009.

[Plax80]

Extremely well thought out thread regarding the guy who should be our #1 offseason target.

I honestly can't see them trading Calderon for the 11th pick either and no matter how you spin Foster and Tins value.........neither really has any.

That shouldn't end our pursuit however, and I think we could package 11 with a combination of Harrison, Diogu, Daniels, and possibly any one of Flip, Foster, Tins, and even Murphy if they want to stomach that.

At the end of the day, matching salaries probbaly won't be asticking point with Calderon starting in the $8mm range which is offset by Daniels and Ike.

Is Jose worth:

Ike
Quis
#11

My answer is yes since Ike has yet to prove he is a consistent rotation player and Quis is stuck in a logjam behind Dun, Danny and Shawne.

I'd love for them to take Foster or Tins instead of Quis though as I see Shawne growing into a role at PF as his body develops.

Jose, Dun, Danny, and Shawne sound pretty solid to me at the 1-4 slots with JO handling the middle.

Murphy, Rush, Tins, Diener, Foster or Quis provide nice depth.............

I'd push for that and then turn my attention to Hinrich if that failed.